All Purpose Analytics and Extended Stats Discussion

[RandyHolt]

The goalie is the key to the PK. What % of its success falls on him? A high % could explain what Twabby says.

Isn't PKing the easiest part of hockey? It seems like it to me, as you typically have the least skilled players out there first. I won't read too much into Barry sending out puck eaters Alzner or Orpik first.

You can ice the puck and change. You get to turtle. Most of the time, you are largely standing around, waving your stick, or moving back and forth between 2 spots. Maybe battle a screener in front. Close your eyes and turn your head to block a shot and hope for the best.

In the era of all players now being mobile, players are more alike than ever, and thus able to be interchangeable parts.

I presume the guys we don't see PK did well at PKing as they came up the ranks, otherwise that would be a huge red flag on them. I just cannot imagine a guy like Schmidt did not get significant PK time in college.

 

[twabby]

I'd guess that PKing is still "hard" in that it requires effort and sacrifice and perhaps a few players in the league wouldn't be willing to sacrifice their bodies to block a shot or whatever, but by and large almost all NHLers are relatively equivalent at it because I imagine most players buy-in enough to reach that baseline level of skill before returns diminish.

The discussion started with lineup construction and basically given the data I wouldn't prioritize penalty killing ability over other aspects such as even strength and power play ability where there are very discernible skill disparities. As someone mentioned earlier, it'd be like prioritizing signing a long-snapper or gunner in football over signing a stud wide-receiver or quarterback.

Give me 6 effective ES and PP defenseman and 12 ES and PP forwards and I'll figure out who will kill penalties later.

 

[RandyHolt]

If anyone (cough Twabby) takes a look at the series data, let us know if anything stands out, to validate or not any AS. It seemed a tale of 2 series - minimal coaching from Barry 1-3, and Barry coaching 4-6.

Looking here, I have to laugh at poor Bruce, crushing Corsi yet cannot score. Take 100 shots 1 has to go in!!!1! Classic desperation mode thinking.

A pens blog has an AS heavy analysis (including rebound data) of their D pairs from round 1. - no sheltering of the bottom pair.

 

[twabby]

If anyone (cough Twabby) takes a look at the series data, let us know if anything stands out, to validate or not any AS. It seemed a tale of 2 series - minimal coaching from Barry 1-3, and Barry coaching 4-6.

Looking here, I have to laugh at poor Bruce, crushing Corsi yet cannot score. Take 100 shots 1 has to go in!!!1! Classic desperation mode thinking.

A pens blog has an AS heavy analysis (including rebound data) of their D pairs from round 1. - no sheltering of the bottom pair.

Here's a series recap of +/- 5v5 shot attempts. It's unadjusted data but it should be good enough to get a summary of the series.



Nothing really too surprising that wasn't already pointed out already. The Matthews line was the best line in the series without question. They benefitted from some luck but that's what happens when you dominate the puck. Other than that, the Capitals really controlled the bottom 9 of Toronto.

Schmidt was fantastic as we all thought. Orlov and Niskanen did a pretty good job for the most part, though again they struggled against Matthews (but they seemed to limit the damage better than other pairs).

The interesting thing seems to be Shattenkirk and Orpik. They were just dreadful when they were deployed with the Backstrom line but okay with any other line:



I'd consider not deploying them at all with Backstrom in the next series. Shattenkirk needs to step his game up at ES. He got worse as the series went on while Carlson got better (probably in large part due to going from Alzner to Schmidt as a partner). I think a part of his struggles are Orpik treating the puck like a hand grenade and putting him in difficult positions but OTOH it's not like he was fantastic when he had time to make decisions either. Once Alzner is healed up I'd like to see a 27-22 pairing and see if they fare better. Alzner doesn't have wheels any more but I feel like he matches up much better against Pittsburgh than Orpik.

 

[RandyHolt]

Thanks much Twabby. I seem to remember Shattenkirk taking a few big hits. Suddenly, his offense vanished and couldn't hit the side of a barn, around game 4 or so.

 

[Dream Big]

Why the Capitals-Penguins series is the one Corsi hates

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...-attempts-kings-washington-capitals-sullivan/

Hockeyfan1001 Rank 42
The Corsi stat has not only proven itself to be bogus in this series but others also.
In the 1st round Minnesota had a +101 Corsi against St. Louis and lost in 5 games.
Columbus was +40 against Pittsburgh and also lost in 5.
Montreal was +34 against the Rangers and lost in 6.
Calgary was +9 against and was swept by Anaheim.

 

[twabby]

This was just posted on Twitter if you're in the mood for some light reading.

I posted this in the main thread too.

 

[Langway]

Hockeyanalysis.com is gone.

 

[Hivemind]

Corsica should be back soon-ish, but I preferred hockeyanalysis for quick look-ups. Bummed.

 

[twabby]

Corsica is back and better than ever:

http://www.corsica.hockey/

Thank goodness! I don't know if I could have made it through the season without my daily stats fix.

 

[twabby]

Figure it belongs here more than the general thread:

Twenty games in: the big picture

(sorry about the small image, the full sized image is in the link above)

Basically the Capitals are below average to WAY below average in most statistical categories at even strength, except for shooting percentage. They are dead last in the league in high danger chance percentage. Not a good recipe for success to be keeping company with the Colorados, Buffaloes, and Arizonas of the NHL.

Asides: regression is going to hit the Devils hard, and Minnesota is one team that can perhaps make the claim that their shot quality makes up for their shot quantity.

 

[Langway]

5-on-5 stuff (adjusted):
22nd in CF%
28th in SF%
10th in GF%
25th in xGF%
26th in Penalty +/-
4th in PDO
3rd in Sh%
10th in SV%

5-on-5 stuff (raw):
26th in SCF%
30th in HDSF%

18th PP
22nd PK

There are plenty of continued underlying metrics of concern being masked by their finishing ability and goaltending. It's the mediocre special teams make it more likely they wind up back in the Metro pack rather than pull away. That and I doubt they become a very good road team.

 

[Raikkonen]

There are plenty of continued underlying metrics of concern being masked by their finishing ability and goaltending. It's the mediocre special teams make it more likely they wind up back in the Metro pack rather than pull away. That and I doubt they become a very good road team.

I don't understand. This is so grim. I thought it was enough to just trade Connolly.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

5-on-5 stuff (adjusted):
22nd in CF%
28th in SF%
10th in GF%
25th in xGF%
26th in Penalty +/-
4th in PDO
3rd in Sh%
10th in SV%

5-on-5 stuff (raw):
26th in SCF%
30th in HDSF%

18th PP
22nd PK

There are plenty of continued underlying metrics of concern being masked by their finishing ability and goaltending. It's the mediocre special teams make it more likely they wind up back in the Metro pack rather than pull away. That and I doubt they become a very good road team.

Obviously not ideal, but a few thoughts here: 1. I wonder how much their poor start is affecting these numbers. 2. I'd love to see a breakdown in top 6 vs bottom 6. My gut tells me that the bottom 6 (and bottom pair) is an anchor and a possession blackhole while the top 6 is Cup-worthy. 3. Trotz continues to be a problem and recent success is likely in spite of him, not because of him. The SCF% and HDSF% is a result of coaching and scheme. No way should a team with the offensive firepower up and down the lineup that the Caps have be that low in terms of creating (meaningful) scoring chances.

 

[Langway]

Merry Effing Christmas everyone.

Hockeyviz WOWY. The guy that stands out for me is Kuznetsov, who happens to rank dead last in CF% among forwards that have played <500 minutes 5-on-5. He often finds himself getting challenged on the road against prime match-ups that he can't handle and he's just not consistently effective enough in general offensively. Look at all of the quicker, younger players that are on the good side of possession marks and then...there's Kuznetsov. (There's Stephenson & Bowey on the wrong side as well but partners are a decent factor with both. Not so much Kuznetsov.) 13+92+77 has been pretty good, though. It's the way to go but he is vulnerable IMO when Trotz can't manage matchups closely. Without that level of play from him it's hard to consider them a true contender. The top line has better numbers but overall I don't see the top six as truly Cup worthy. They're still not explosive enough, esp. on the road.

Eller has been the big penalty offender. The PP should improve some but PP2 has been quite unproductive. They should try Stephenson over Eller IMO. Better hands, at least from a playmaking standpoint.

They've done a better job with shots for/against very recently but not so much the high danger stuff I don't think. Some of it was score effects at home but they haven't found their game on the road and may just be a mediocre road team absent amazing goaltending. The Metro isn't that great so they should make the playoffs regardless but areas like penalty +/-, traffic area work and special teams need to improve if they're going to pull away. They have some elite finishers so the PDO/xGF% may not matter much but their road game and general discipline/crispness needs to improve.

 

[traparatus]

Kuznetsov is so close to being one of the best players in the game but for a few small adjustments. He doesn't have a low shot for a rebound in his arsenal and he skates much too fast for his linemates to keep up. He is always first in the zone and there is nobody else there to pass the puck to so he forces himself behind the net and when opposition intercepts his back pass to the slot he is the last one out of the zone. That's not a good place for a center to be.

He wants to be the puck carrier and that's fine. However, he has to commit to shooting the puck into goalie's pads on majority of his rushes. Oshie and Vrana are skilled and hard skating players. If Kuznetsov would create some rebounds for them to skate into, he'd be flirting with 90 point seasons. Shooting the puck would also leave him a lot higher up in the zone and in much better defensive position.

Also, this Kuznetsov down low on he power play experiment needs to be mercilessly shot in the head.

 

[traparatus]

Oh Orpik, my Orpik....

If you are a Caps' defenseman and get paired up with Brooks Orpik, you are ***********.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Merry Effing Christmas everyone.

Hockeyviz WOWY. The guy that stands out for me is Kuznetsov, who happens to rank dead last in CF% among forwards that have played <500 minutes 5-on-5. He often finds himself getting challenged on the road against prime match-ups that he can't handle and he's just not consistently effective enough in general offensively. Look at all of the quicker, younger players that are on the good side of possession marks and then...there's Kuznetsov. (There's Stephenson & Bowey on the wrong side as well but partners are a decent factor with both. Not so much Kuznetsov.) 13+92+77 has been pretty good, though. It's the way to go but he is vulnerable IMO when Trotz can't manage matchups closely. Without that level of play from him it's hard to consider them a true contender. The top line has better numbers but overall I don't see the top six as truly Cup worthy. They're still not explosive enough, esp. on the road.

Eller has been the big penalty offender. The PP should improve some but PP2 has been quite unproductive. They should try Stephenson over Eller IMO. Better hands, at least from a playmaking standpoint.

They've done a better job with shots for/against very recently but not so much the high danger stuff I don't think. Some of it was score effects at home but they haven't found their game on the road and may just be a mediocre road team absent amazing goaltending. The Metro isn't that great so they should make the playoffs regardless but areas like penalty +/-, traffic area work and special teams need to improve if they're going to pull away. They have some elite finishers so the PDO/xGF% may not matter much but their road game and general discipline/crispness needs to improve.

So many warts from top to bottom. They’re never winning a Cup with this team. Win a round or two, rinse/repeat until one of Leonsis or Ovechkin realizes it’s time to dump the other. The recent (10 year) curse of the Caps, blessed with a few world class talents, all with critical flaws.

 

[Langway]

So many warts from top to bottom. They’re never winning a Cup with this team. Win a round or two, rinse/repeat until one of Leonsis or Ovechkin realizes it’s time to dump the other. The recent (10 year) curse of the Caps, blessed with a few world class talents, all with critical flaws.

Unless Holtby stands on his head, yes. We can point fingers at leaders not coming through but it's a collective failure. They don't handle pressure well. They don't own it. Trotz fumbles it in just about every way possible. You'd think after so many tries they'd get a bounce or two at least. They'll have opportunities for runs should luck be on their side but I don't trust Trotz to help steer it. Not that the roster is ideal or that MacLellan couldn't be better.

Having said all that re: Kuznetsov, he's still tied for tenth in scoring 5-on-5 and tied for seventh in primary assists. But I don't see that 1/2 punch down the middle being as formidable as it should be. Even in a season where everyone in the East has flaws aside from maybe Tampa Bay, it's hard to get behind their instincts as Cup quality. It's hard to trust their overall hockey IQ and determination, to say nothing of the more vexing mental side. When they're plugged in they can compete with anyone but the elevation in their game, the details and baseline discipline all remain sketchy. On the surface maybe you'd point to the rookies and think it's a transition season for more experience but they don't seem like a front burner issue most nights. Most nights if they're losing it's collective rather than an individual play here or there.

It's the PK that they ought to be able to figure out most easily among their lagging internals but that also requires perhaps a more honest assessment of Orpik, Beagle and Chiasson. The loss of Alzner & Winnik are felt there but they need a better sense of who to rely on. Wilson probably should be on PK1 over Chiasson for starters.

 

[g00n]

IMO we use the word a lot but this team lacks grit. Not grinding or fighting..."grit" as a measure of persistence, drive, tenacity, and refusal to quit. That is a real factor in success that is modified by talent and skill. Twabby, if you're looking for measurables and research on the topic I suggest you check out the book by the same name


Maybe instead of a beard or hard hat they should give out a Cup made of 40 grit sandpaper. If this team got grittier--mentally tougher and more driven than ever before-- I guarantee the "fancy stats" would go up as well.

 

[Raikkonen]

Puncher's chance, right?

Ovi can win the cup all by himself. He just needs to do those things like McDonagh-Girardi-Lundqvist-against-all-odds goal he scored couple years ago... 3-4 times each series.

Btw, that picture about Dmen effectiveness. Djoos-Carlson is top but AFAIR it's the most sheltered pair, right?

 

[Langway]

Some ugly, damning figures there.

 

[g00n]

How does a "turtling" team give up so many odd man rushes?

(I know what some are going to say)

 

[RandyHolt]

Do the fancy stats say we are going to get blown out?

 

[maacoshark]

How does a "turtling" team give up so many odd man rushes?

(I know what some are going to say)

A few reasons. Quite often when we get control in our end our entire team leaves the zone and we end up turning it over at our blue line. Another thing we are bad for is when the opposing dman stands up at the blue line instead if getting the puck deep our forwards try to make a move at the offensive blue line and end up turning it over. Our dmen get caught pinching once in awhile too.
We don't turtle when we have a lead. We have some players that tend to turn the puck over when there is a lot of pressure. Sometimes I wish we did turtle. Just keep 5 guys back and ice the puck.