The problem is, like fellow defensive oriented coaches whose systems are rooted in neutral zone trapping (Jacques Lemaire), Guy Boucher takes bad teams and makes them average, takes average teams and makes them good. His teams frequently over achieve in year one, and It does him a disservice. It sets up unrealistic expectations going forward because the "talent" on the team is overrated as a result.
This core group of Senators players had been the definition of a bubble playoff team before Boucher got here, finishing between 7th and 11th in the Eastern Conference. Boucher comes in and emphasizes a defense-first neutral zone trapping system that is frustrating/boring to play against. However, it is effective. Ottawa was fifth in the conference in goals against with Boucher. The previous year they were second to last. Under Boucher, They scored 212 goals and gave up 214 - They played in lots of close one goal games as a result of their system and built a great deal of confidence in winning those close hard fought games. This translated to the playoffs, where so many games are one goal games or go to OT, and the foundation the Sens had built in these types of situations enabled them to go on a deep run Game 7 of the ECF.
The problem is fans, media, and most notably Sens management (especially Dorion) attributed the success to the "talent" of the roster. Nothing exemplifies this more than the perpetual "this team was one goal away from a SCF appearance" notion Dorion has been pushing since the summer.
That thought process couldn't be more wrong. This group at its core is still a bubble playoff team in terms of talent level. Compare our group of forwards to other good teams in the league. Where do we rank? Pretty low in my estimation. Even bad teams have like Carolina and Buffalo have more impressive offensive pieces than we do - guys like Aho, Skinner, Teravainen, Eichel, Kane. Our D corps is bottom five in the league without Methot. It is slow, plodding, thin, and offers very little mobility or offense besides Karlsson. Our goaltending is also bottom 10 in the league. Anderson is pedestrian at best and aging, Condon is a third string fringe NHL goalie.
The problem is water always seeks its level. No matter how good the system or coaching is, the talent always shows its true colors at various points in time. This losing streak was a prime example.
The same thing happened in Tampa Bay. Boucher over achieved in his first season - knocking out the Penguins who suffered injuries to Crosby and Malkin, sweeping Washington who was the #1 team in the East in, and losing by one goal in Game 7 of the ECF to eventual Cup champion Boston.
He had more talent up and down his lineup (Lecavalier, St Louis, Malone, Stamkos, Gagne, Hedman, Kubina, Ohlund, Brewer), but he had NOTHING in the crease. A goalie trio of Dwayne Roloson, Dan Ellis, and a young Mike Smith. Dwayne Roloson was his #1 goaltender. The following season it was a tandem of Roloson and Garon. And in his final season it was the "dynamic duo" of Anders Lindback and Garon.
This was his downfall in Tampa. Not burnout, not the system being figured out, not an inability to adapt, etc. We've all seen it many times before - When you don't have a legitimate #1 goalie, you're screwed. How many talented Flyers teams have toiled away in mediocrity with guys like Brian Boucher or Michael Leighton in the net? Tampa Bay also dealt with some big injuries - guys like Hedman, Malone, and Lecavalier missed 15-20 games each in 2011-12. Ohlund never played in the NHL again after 2010-11. Some secondary scoring was lost after 2010-11 when Simon Gagne left. But the goaltending is what really undid Boucher in the two seasons following the ECF run. You can only overcome giving up bad soft goals for so long. The players and coaches get frustrated. No matter what changes you make, you feel like nothing is working because the puck keeps ending up in the back of the net. You never feel comfortable playing your defensive style because you know you don't have the goaltending to ultimately execute it. The losses pile up, you get sucked into more run and gun games, you lose your structure, the players lose faith in the coaching and the system, and it comes crashing down.
Boucher was Yzerman's fall guy. Yzerman failed miserably to acquire a legitimate starting caliber goaltender until he finally got Ben Bishop. By then, it was already too late for Boucher. Yzerman failed him.
The same thing is happening in Ottawa. Dorion is failing Boucher. The goaltending in year two has been downright abysmal. Craig Anderson and Mike Condon have shown their truer colors. Nothing has been done to upgrade the mobility/skill of the D, and nothing has been done to upgrade the top level skill of the forward group to help this team become more than a bubble playoff team.
Duchene for Turris was a lateral move. Overpaid has beens like Dion and Bobby clogging the cap with immovable contracts. Losing the Brassard, Duchene, and Burrows deals. Losing Methot without adequately replacing him. Signing Johnny Oduya for a top 4 role.
The narrative of "Boucher Burn out" is aggravating me. It's just not accurate. He is an excellent tactical coach. He is intense, but with success that intensity is not problematic. He has taken two teams to the door step of the SCF. His GM's have failed him. His goaltending in Tampa Bay was a league-worst scenario that caused the team to ultimately unravel. Similar things are now happening in Ottawa. After a year one overachievement, Water is now seeking its level with Ottawa's goaltending and defensive corps. Dorion's poor moves and over valuation of his team's talent level are slowly sinking the ship.