Alexis Lafreniére at 16 VS Connor McDavid at 16

Which player at 16 was better? (ahead)


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Hfbsux

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Dec 22, 2012
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Completely agree! Surprised to see the poll so one-sided. But I can see why, McDavid was the last generationnal prospect and is one of the best player in the NHL right now. In my eyes, it is pretty clear, Lafreniere had a better draft -2 year than McDavid. Not saying he will be a better player as his ceiling might be a little lower, stat wise anyways.
 
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Bjorn Le

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May 17, 2010
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Completely agree! Surprised to see the poll so one-sided. But I can see why, McDavid was the last generationnal prospect and is one of the best player in the NHL right now. In my eyes, it is pretty clear, Lafreniere had a better draft -2 year than McDavid. Not saying he will be a better player as his ceiling might be a little lower, stat wise anyways.

Might be a little lower, implying that there’s an argument that he has the same if not higher ceiling than McDavid.

It’s nice to see the brakes being pumped on Lafreniére in this thread rather than the last one where I gave up trying to argue that he’s not McDavid. There is a better chance that Lafreniére not going top 10 then there is him being the NHL’ers best player in his second season. He has little to no chance of having the same ceiling McDavid has. Period. Why can’t people just appreciate players for who they are (a strong first overall candidate) then applying ridiculous and bullshit comparisons to the player who is the closest to Crosby’s caliber in the past 12-13 years.
 

Hfbsux

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Dec 22, 2012
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Might be a little lower, implying that there’s an argument that he has the same if not higher ceiling than McDavid.

It’s nice to see the brakes being pumped on Lafreniére in this thread rather than the last one where I gave up trying to argue that he’s not McDavid. There is a better chance that Lafreniére not going top 10 then there is him being the NHL’ers best player in his second season. He has little to no chance of having the same ceiling McDavid has. Period. Why can’t people just appreciate players for who they are (a strong first overall candidate) then applying ridiculous and bull**** comparisons to the player who is the closest to Crosby’s caliber in the past 12-13 years.

We are talking about their D-2 season. I don't know his ceiling yet, that's why i used the word "might". Nobody knows really..
 
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Bjorn Le

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May 17, 2010
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We are talking about their D-2 season. I don't know his ceiling yet, that's why i used the word "might". Nobody knows really..

There is no justification to say "his ceiling might be a little lower than McDavid." Straight up, his ceiling is not McDavid. Anything like that just puts unrealistic expectations that a player almost certainly cannot attain.

And enough with the D-2 nonsense. It doesn't matter Lafreniere is only 3 months older than someone born on the same day as McDavid in 2002, the most comparable season to McDavid for Lafreniere is the season McDavid started as a 16 year old, not a season where McDavid played more than half the year as an undersized 15 year old, and a season where Lafreniere played only six games as a large for his age 15 year old. As stated earlier, Taylor Hall is a better comparison than McDavid. The D-2 comparison is contrived to make Lafreniere look better.
 

Hfbsux

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Dec 22, 2012
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There is no justification to say "his ceiling might be a little lower than McDavid." Straight up, his ceiling is not McDavid. Anything like that just puts unrealistic expectations that a player almost certainly cannot attain.

And enough with the D-2 nonsense. It doesn't matter Lafreniere is only 3 months older than someone born on the same day as McDavid in 2002, the most comparable season to McDavid for Lafreniere is the season McDavid started as a 16 year old, not a season where McDavid played more than half the year as an undersized 15 year old, and a season where Lafreniere played only six games as a large for his age 15 year old. As stated earlier, Taylor Hall is a better comparison than McDavid. The D-2 comparison is contrived to make Lafreniere look better.

You want to compare McDavid's season at 16 years old and 8 months to Lafreniere's 15 years old and 11 months? You think that would be a better comparaison? The difference is 9 months. The other way around we have a 3 month difference...

And let's just ignore Hall and Lefreniere's teammates.
 
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Bjorn Le

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May 17, 2010
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You want to compare McDavid's season at 16 years old and 8 months to Lafreniere's 15 years old and 11 months? You think that would be a better comparaison? The difference is 9 months. The other way around we have a 3 month difference...

For all intents and purposes, Lafreniere was a 16 year old. Beyond that, development and growth doesn't occur in the linear fashion to make straight up age comparisons appropriate. In general, late-birth day players tend to be more physically developed for their age than pre-September 15th born players, and don't have as exponential an increase in stats as normal birthday players. Look at recent top picks with late-birthdays. Taylor Hall and Gabriel Landeskog are good examples, but far from the only ones. Taylor Hall, like Lafreniere, was a large for his age (though not quite as large as Lafreniere is currently) player, who played not just six games as a 15 year old but a month and a half. He only increased his point totals by six points in his second season. He definitely developed a lot as player in that time, but he was already very well physically developed.

Lafreniere is arguably more physically developed now than McDavid was in his draft season. You can chalk up a lot of McDavid's increase in points to catching up physically with the OHL. His skill and IQ always were always there, but what changed was physical maturity, going from a bantam sized player to a major junior sized player. Lafreniere is physically mature for his age, and he doesn't have to grow to match the league. That's why the comparison is bullshit. It tries to compare an older, far more physically developed player to a younger one who was undersized at the time.
 

Hfbsux

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Dec 22, 2012
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I understand the point you are trying to make but I don't think we can predict how a 16 years old and 5 months old kid will grow. It's also one of the reason why I said I can't put a ceiling on him. What if he gains another 3 inches? Might not be probable, but who knows. His dad is a big guy from what I heard..
 

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