Prospect Info: Aleksi Heponiemi (2017, #40 overall), Kärpät (Liiga)

drktmplr12

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Feb 28, 2018
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watching his highlights, i see many instances where the difference in skill level just isn't fair. i say throw him in the deep end so he can better identify the weaknesses in his game-if he hasn't already.

i agree, however, that playing him against men might have the opposite effect.
 
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GrumpyKelly

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May 15, 2011
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I don't see how juniors is an option for him anymore. What would be the point, to dominate more? Makes no sense.

Put him against men, he'll be 20 soon. He absolutely has to be able to handle it at this point.
 

Jakeybonz

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Jan 1, 2018
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118 points in 57 games is dominating. he has more ppg than the next closest player by far. not saying that its the end all be all or that he is ready for the NHL, but it does count for something. He is generating scoring chances and shoots at 20% just like all the other top junior players.

he does have holes in his game. he obviously needs to shoot more..he is one of two forwards in top scorers this year with less than 200 shots, and the only one with less than 150. everyone else has damn near 300. also have to work on faceoffs if he is going to center anything above juniors. part of that will be strength conditioning.


4ryBMF5
his points came early on. he hasn't dominated in a long time. not sure if its cause of that injury around mid season but he hasn't been the same since and I was really high on him so I kinda want to blame it on that. but if its not that then he's not improving as much as we thought. he had a bad world juniors with 2 lucky goals that weren't skillful at all and he hasn't scored a goal in like 25 playoff games or so. that's a little weird. both of his playoff performances have been way worse than his regular season scoring rates which isn't a great sign. couple this with the fact I'm 5'8 and could probably kick his ass and he's not going pro. he'd get ragdolled. there's no easy choice here but I'm betting he heads back to the broncos after training camp. there are small players but he would be the skinniest in the finnish pros by a mile I'd have to imagine. 5'10 - 141 lbs. will get a dude murdered against men.
 

letsgrowcactus

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Jan 21, 2017
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Well, Heponiemi finally scored a playoff goal (game-winner, went 1+1 and named first star).
Hopefully he adds a couple more so we can stop freaking out about this...
 

vendetta

#CatsAreComing
Mar 22, 2011
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Well, Heponiemi finally scored a playoff goal (game-winner, went 1+1 and named first star).
Hopefully he adds a couple more so we can stop freaking out about this...
No ones freaking out.. it just shows some serious flaws which is quite normal for a prospect of his age.. it does t mean he's not a good prospect. Just shoukd temper expectations
 
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letsgrowcactus

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Jan 21, 2017
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He’s not dominating juniors tho. He has 0 goals in the playoffs. That’s a big concern. He should work on this in a development league like juniors. Instead of adjusting to men and a different game in Europe where he might be just surviving instead of rounding out his game. 0 goals isn’t dominating. Playoffs matter when the competition is more on par. This isn’t just overpassing. Even huby a notorious overpasser/playmaker put up almost a goal per game in playoffs. And goal to assist ratio was close. Hepos isn’t close. And it’s a big concern. Major red flags. Doesn’t mean he’s not a good prospect. Means he isn’t really close and has a lot to work on
Okay, so I went back to this post and did some research.

I went through the junior records in 2009/10 to 2014/15 playoffs. I looked at forwards who had at least 10 playoff points and picked guys who had four or less goals and at least eight more assists than goals. To simplify I ignored guys who had less points, so there may talented kids on bad teams that fell through the cracks. (I later included guys with 5 goals and 15+ assists - there were two and neither amounted to anything).

Now as for the guys with a big assist/goal difference: LOTS of guys that flop there, especially small guys. One alarming case in particular: Arizona's Conor Garland, formerly played in QMJHL. Small guy. Impressive regular season production, lots of assists. Now check out his AHL production. Quick preview - it's bad.

That said, there are guys who suceeded or are developing well.

One comparable would be a former WHL guy Nicholas Merkley. Lesser regular season production (doesn't have Heponiemi's crazy offensive numbers) but see playoff numbers: 4+13 in predraft year (17 games); 5+22 in draft year (19 games), no playoffs in draft+1 year, 6+13 in draft +2 year (17 games); now looks excellent in the AHL. Similarly to Hepo, he is a small guy who is praised for his excellent vision and understanding of the game.

Another hopeful is Joshua Ho-Sang, formerly OHL. Again, lesser regular season production but playoff numbers: 1+16 in draft+1 year (11 games), 6+20 in draft+2 year (17 games).

Less close but still within my limits is Namestnikov (OHL). He's a bit taller and much heavier, but still had two not-great playoff seasons: 1+4 in 6 games (draft year) and 4+14 in 19 games (draft+1 year). Not a star but very much a serviceable player.

And lastly, mostly as a curiosity - Jonathan Marchesseault's "would have been" draft+1 year in QMJHL - went 3+11 in 9 QMJHL games. Of course in his "draft+2 year" he was 11+22 in 18 games, and then kept setting the AHL on fire until he finally got the chance to stick in the NHL with us.


Sadly, none of this tells us what would be the best path for Heponiemi. His regular season production is incredible and makes me think another junior year would be a waste. Then again... he played with Steenbergen and Gawdin who are both leaving. If the Broncos become a worse team, that should put more pressure on Hepo to be the leader - plus he won't be able to feed all the pucks to Steenbergen and Gawdin, which should force him to shoot more.
I don't know. I still wouldn't mind him in Liiga but maybe another year in juniors isn't such a bad idea after all.
 

SoupyFIN

#OneTerritory
Nov 7, 2011
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When a player's scoring drops massively in the playoffs compared to what he had in the regular season, more often than not means that he's injured. So if Hepo is playing hurt, it can't be anything too serious since he's still putting up the assists.
 

vendetta

#CatsAreComing
Mar 22, 2011
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Okay, so I went back to this post and did some research.

I went through the junior records in 2009/10 to 2014/15 playoffs. I looked at forwards who had at least 10 playoff points and picked guys who had four or less goals and at least eight more assists than goals. To simplify I ignored guys who had less points, so there may talented kids on bad teams that fell through the cracks. (I later included guys with 5 goals and 15+ assists - there were two and neither amounted to anything).

Now as for the guys with a big assist/goal difference: LOTS of guys that flop there, especially small guys. One alarming case in particular: Arizona's Conor Garland, formerly played in QMJHL. Small guy. Impressive regular season production, lots of assists. Now check out his AHL production. Quick preview - it's bad.

That said, there are guys who suceeded or are developing well.

One comparable would be a former WHL guy Nicholas Merkley. Lesser regular season production (doesn't have Heponiemi's crazy offensive numbers) but see playoff numbers: 4+13 in predraft year (17 games); 5+22 in draft year (19 games), no playoffs in draft+1 year, 6+13 in draft +2 year (17 games); now looks excellent in the AHL. Similarly to Hepo, he is a small guy who is praised for his excellent vision and understanding of the game.

Another hopeful is Joshua Ho-Sang, formerly OHL. Again, lesser regular season production but playoff numbers: 1+16 in draft+1 year (11 games), 6+20 in draft+2 year (17 games).

Less close but still within my limits is Namestnikov (OHL). He's a bit taller and much heavier, but still had two not-great playoff seasons: 1+4 in 6 games (draft year) and 4+14 in 19 games (draft+1 year). Not a star but very much a serviceable player.

And lastly, mostly as a curiosity - Jonathan Marchesseault's "would have been" draft+1 year in QMJHL - went 3+11 in 9 QMJHL games. Of course in his "draft+2 year" he was 11+22 in 18 games, and then kept setting the AHL on fire until he finally got the chance to stick in the NHL with us.


Sadly, none of this tells us what would be the best path for Heponiemi. His regular season production is incredible and makes me think another junior year would be a waste. Then again... he played with Steenbergen and Gawdin who are both leaving. If the Broncos become a worse team, that should put more pressure on Hepo to be the leader - plus he won't be able to feed all the pucks to Steenbergen and Gawdin, which should force him to shoot more.
I don't know. I still wouldn't mind him in Liiga but maybe another year in juniors isn't such a bad idea after all.
Even those numbers u listed none are close to hepos in goals per game. I would be curious to see shot totals tho as it relates... and hepo is on the best line in juniors and it isn't particularly close.. yes he he is a massive reason for that but I agree with those two leaving I don't think juniors is a waste of time for him at all
 

vendetta

#CatsAreComing
Mar 22, 2011
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When a player's scoring drops massively in the playoffs compared to what he had in the regular season, more often than not means that he's injured. So if Hepo is playing hurt, it can't be anything too serious since he's still putting up the assists.
And I'd say 80 percent of player are injured or at least not close to 100 percent by the time playoffs roll around
 

letsgrowcactus

Registered User
Jan 21, 2017
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Even those numbers u listed none are close to hepos in goals per game. I would be curious to see shot totals tho as it relates... and hepo is on the best line in juniors and it isn't particularly close.. yes he he is a massive reason for that but I agree with those two leaving I don't think juniors is a waste of time for him at all
Well, Hepo's posting numbers in regular season that haven't been seen in a while, plus the goal/assist discrepancy is crazy - so frankly getting any comparables is tough.
That said Garland is probably the closest in both regular season production and playoffs. Ho-Sang produced less in regular season but his playoff numbers are nearly identical to Hepo (remember, Hepo hasn't played "Draft+2" season yet). Merkley produced slightly more in the playoffs but I still consider him a decent comparible given his size and supposedly excellent vision. Unfortunately, out of NHLers who are no longer considered prospects, Namestikov and Marchesseault is as close as it gets.

Hepo's shooting % is very low for the playoffs - not sure why. 27 SOG in 15 games is not enough though - he definitely needs to shoot more. Unfortunately there are no shot totals from previous junior years (at least that I could find).
 

Jakeybonz

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Jan 1, 2018
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Well, Hepo's posting numbers in regular season that haven't been seen in a while
nah, he finished a little over 2 ppg. its awesome but we've definitely seen it recently. debrincat did that just last year and drouin even better in his d+1 if I recall. I'm sure there's plenty more if I just thought of those 2 off the top of my head. i know theyre technically diff. leagues but i consider the juniors all one big league. hepo ended the season so cold (by his standards) that it didn't really end up being a historic season. if he had stayed at 2.65 ppg like he was at mid season then ur right, we wouldn't really be able to find anything comparable in recent memory. but then this would also probably not even be a conversation cause he'd probably be lighting up the playoffs. as it stands he's looking like a skinny slightly less skilled drouin to me which I'd be more than happy with at 40th overall but still I'm a little deflated that he didn't have the epic year I was hoping for by mid season. would've been so cool to see 150 pts next to his name. I don't think any of us would've cared about the G to A ratio had that happened.
 
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FinlandPanther

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nah, he finished a little over 2 ppg. its awesome but we've definitely seen it recently. debrincat did that just last year and drouin even better in his d+1 if I recall. I'm sure there's plenty more if I just thought of those 2 off the top of my head. i know theyre technically diff. leagues but i consider the juniors all one big league. hepo ended the season so cold (by his standards) that it didn't really end up being a historic season. if he had stayed at 2.65 ppg like he was at mid season then ur right, we wouldn't really be able to find anything comparable in recent memory. but then this would also probably not even be a conversation cause he'd probably be lighting up the playoffs. as it stands he's looking like a skinny slightly less skilled drouin to me which I'd be more than happy with at 40th overall but still I'm a little deflated that he didn't have the epic year I was hoping for by mid season. would've been so cool to see 150 pts next to his name. I don't think any of us would've cared about the G to A ratio had that happened.
You know everything doesn’t have to come off as a disappointment to you. It’s ok to be satisfied with one thing in this organization. Relax.
 

TheImpatientPanther

Florida Flukin Panthers > LTIR Maple Leafs
Jan 17, 2013
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Say potential is realized. When is this kid making the team?

Next year or year after?

145lbs? I'd easily say next year (2019-2020) if not the year after that. Ya he may be elusive but if he gets lined up by anyone over 215lbs, he may need a body bag. Plus needs competition better than OHL but not better than NHL.

Your thoughts?
 

Jakeybonz

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Jan 1, 2018
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damn, I need to switch leagues immediately then. nhls been a joke for decades now. weirdly enough though, I have to say this was the first yr I can ever say that the refs didn't screw the panthers. so that's something.
 
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