Player Discussion Adam Larsson (Mod Warning in OP)

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Nurse is on an upward trajectory. I'm not sure it would be worth losing him given cap / contract situations. When is the last time we really drafted a good defenseman that we developed in our own system? I think Nurse is the type of player we need to keep to grow as an Oiler and hope that he wants to stay here for the long term if he continues improving his game

I'd like to keep Nurse too, but if he finally brings us that elite puck moving dman to play with Lars, I'm in!

I think that ship is sailing. I was hopeful to get OEL somehow, but Arizona has good vibes going now. True, they are low in the standings, but Raanta had a great year and re-signed, and their last quarter or so they seemed to hit their stride and hockey was fun for them again. I bet we see OEL re-sign this July when he becomes eligible to re-sign

There have been good vibes in Arizona that have faded for a long time. If OEL would consider signing elsewhere, I'd imagine he would love to play with Larsson, Klef and Connor.

 

[cpsman]

I hope Klef can be that guy too. Which is why if we get OEL, I wouldn't want Klef to be the dman that we move in the deal.

Klef just really had an off year. I'm really hoping that he can bounce back a bit next year.

This year was just an anomaly. I think Larsson has another level too. Hedman was about this age when he really improved his game, and although I realize Larsson won't be another Hedman, I think he, like other defensemen, has not yet fully developed by age 25. He has a lot of improvement and maturation ahead of him in the next 5 years. Although I'm happy with him being a solid #2 defenseman on this team, I hope he can become a potential #1. Adding a veteran like OEL or Karlsson to our current D core would do wonders for the team. Not sure that this will even be possible though. I can't see Chia (or replacement of Chia) being able to pull that off.

Now the only problem is what happens when we have another expansion with Seattle and have to protect players like Russell and Sekera

 

[cpsman]

This is also why I am little hesitant in trading Nurse, there are signs that he may become a consistent top 2 d but I'm still little skeptical about some of his decision making for him to get there.

He's still so young though at 23. He's already a solid player but we have to be patient. History tells us that most NHL defensemen don't reach their peak till late 20s and even early 30s.

EDIT: same applies to Larsson.

 

[MettleMcOiler]

I think that ship is sailing. I was hopeful to get OEL somehow, but Arizona has good vibes going now. True, they are low in the standings, but Raanta had a great year and re-signed, and their last quarter or so they seemed to hit their stride and hockey was fun for them again. I bet we see OEL re-sign this July when he becomes eligible to re-sign

I read somewhere, can't remember the link, but it said something along the lines that OEL wanted to see it through with Arizona, and it was where he is most comfortable to play and call his home. So I wouldn't be surprised if he does re-sign in Arizona.

 

[cpsman]

I'd like to keep Nurse too, but if he finally brings us that elite puck moving dman to play with Lars, I'm in!

I definitely get where you are coming from. My only concern is if Chiarelli is responsible, he will definitely overpay for someone of that stature and we are already going to be in cap hit difficulty.

 

[FlameChampion]

I definitely get where you are coming from. My only concern is if Chiarelli is responsible, he will definitely overpay for someone of that stature and we are already going to be in cap hit difficulty.

I agree. Top pairing is hella expensive. For a team that has little depth, it would just be creating more holes by fixing a hole. And then you have the cap issue, pretty hard to do with Lucic, Russell and Sekera contracts. I mean 5 defenseman on this team are going to probably be making 4+ million unless Nurse gets a bridge contract.

 

[Little Fury]

He's still so young though at 23. He's already a solid player but we have to be patient. History tells us that most NHL defensemen don't reach their peak till late 20s and even early 30s.

EDIT: same applies to Larsson.

That's a myth.

 

[sepHF]

That's a myth.

it really depends on the type of player. More offensive guys tend to show earlier

Hockey metrics: Measuring when and why NHL players peak | CBC News

 

[Little Fury]

it really depends on the type of player. More offensive guys tend to show earlier

Hockey metrics: Measuring when and why NHL players peak | CBC News

That study is wrong as well. Others have looked into this and found the scoring peak comes earlier, like in the early to mid-20s.

I think the D men peak late thing has legs because it's rare for D men to enter the league in their early 20s (though that seems to be changing) because there's only so many roster spots and thus opportunities to go around. For a guy like Larsson who entered the league as an 18 year old, I don't think you can realistically expect much more than what he's shown. Ditto Nurse who will probably improve some aspects of his game but won't fundamentally become a different player than what he already is. I've certainly never heard of a player hitting their stride in their 30s.

 

[sepHF]

That study is wrong as well. Others have looked into this and found the scoring peak comes earlier, like in the early to mid-20s.

I think the D men peak late thing has legs because it's rare for D men to enter the league in their early 20s (though that seems to be changing) because there's only so many roster spots and thus opportunities to go around. For a guy like Larsson who entered the league as an 18 year old, I don't think you can realistically expect much more than what he's shown. Ditto Nurse who will probably improve some aspects of his game but won't fundamentally become a different player than what he already is. I've certainly never heard of a player hitting their stride in their 30s.

I agree on Larsson.


It also needs to be taken into account as players age and mature they're given harder matchups and minutes, won't be as sheltered as they were early in their career which can reduce their offensive output.

He's a big outlier but Giordano is a guy who's played his best hockey after 30

 

[Zaddy]

Woodguy has an outstanding bunch of info in today's Lowetide on using relative GF% to assess dmen - and as some of you know - I think using GF% with lots of context is one of the best tools out there to assess the net contribution of what players create AND what they give up.

Lowetide.ca | Peace frog


Lowetide.ca | Peace frog

Lowetide.ca | Peace frog
Adam Larsson is the stud dman on this team, and good god, if you gave him an equally good 2 way partner who has a bit more offense in his game they would be a legit top tier pair in the league. Some real food for thought on what we should do with the defense - and see below for the start of the conversation.

-------------------------
If you were to look at a single metric that tells you how a player changes the goal share for his team when he is on the ice, that metric is Relative Teammate GF%.

Its not a “player on”/player off” metric like normal Relative metrics, rather its the aggregation of the WOWYS.

I think its a very interesting and informative stat.

Like all stats, its needs a lot of context.

In this case, very good players on bad teams will always look very good as their team mates’ GF% will be better when on with the better players.

You also have to be careful about Dmen. A Dman’s results are also that of his partner, and I don’t know how to get Relative Team mate GF% for pairs of players.

You also need large sample sizes. One season is not enough to account for PDO heaters etc.

You also need to discount the results of 3rd pairing Dmen a bit on when they play on a team when the coach hard matches Dpairs (which is usually all teams)

When a top 6 forward plays with a 3rd pairing Dman its usually vs lesser comp and a top 6 forward will have a better GF% vs lesser comp.

All that being said, here is the EDM results of 5v5 Relative Teammate GF% using the last two years as the sample:

(all traded players only have their EDM results in the sample)

Player RelT GF%
CONNOR.MCDAVID 15.4
PATRICK.MAROON 4.8
ANTON.SLEPYSHEV 4.3
JESSE.PULJUJARVI 4.2
JORDAN.EBERLE 3.8
LEON.DRAISAITL 0.7
ZACK.KASSIAN 0.3
RYAN.STROME 0.3
MILAN.LUCIC 0.2
RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS -0.6
MIKE.CAMMALLERI -1.0
JUJHAR.KHAIRA -4.3
ERIC.GRYBA -5.6
DRAKE.CAGGIULA -7.1
BENOIT.POULIOT -7.2
MARK.LETESTU -7.4

MATT.BENNING 7.4
DARNELL.NURSE 6.4
ADAM.LARSSON 3.7
KRIS.RUSSELL -2.1
OSCAR.KLEFBOM -2.1
ANDREJ.SEKERA -4.3
BRANDON.DAVIDSON -5.9

Some thoughts on these results:

1) McDavid is from another dimension.

2) RNH had tough matchups for most of last year and some of this year, but had better help this year (esp. with McDavid….duh)

RNH’s RelTGF% from year to year:

16/17 -9.24
17/18 +9.20

Wild. Maybe leave RNH on 97’s wing eh?

3) Sekera is similar to RNH, but in reverse. His injury was a real *****:

16/17 +5.38
17/18 -28.1

4) Adam Larsson is the best Dman on the team.

Look at Nurse’s and Klefbom’s GF% splits with him over the last two years:

16/17
Klef w/ Larsson 59.9% GF
Klef w/o Larsson 43.3% GF
Larsson w/o Klef 57.6% GF

17/18
Klef w/ Larsson 39.1% GF
Klef w/o Larsson 44.93 GF
Larsson w/o Klef 53.4% GF

That’s crazy.

Klefbom might be the player to trade to get the 2RD.

His best season was last year and he was still below 45% GF away from Larsson. Not good.

I like Klef, but I think its becoming clear that he gives up more than he creates.

To be fair to Klef, he was hurt this year, but last year he wasn’t and his injury history is growing…..

Might be the exact right guy to cash in this summer.

Nurse’s splits with Larsson this year:

Nurse w/ Larsson 56.9%
Nurse w/o Larsson 53.7%
Larsson w/o Nurse 39.5% (see results with Klef above)

5) The Drake Caggiula Experience should probably end.

16/17 -1.99
17/18 -10.0

6) Benning results are always way better than the visual

7) Despite not scoring at all, Lucic didn’t drag down GF% too much for his team mates

16/17 +1.68
17/18 -0.52

8) Russell rode the PDO pony hard last year, not so much this year:

16/17 +2.47
17/18 -4.98

Interesting stuff.

Not the burning bush, but interesting nonetheless

I prefer to use actual goal share when the sample is large enough rather than Expected Goal metrics.

I find expected goal metrics over state the value of shot volume vis a vis goals.

There is skill is scoring goals and stopping goals that shot metrics don’t capture.

They’re great for what they are, but they have their limitations.

They are still the best we have for predicting future goal share, but I don’t think they describe play as well as goal share in 2 season + samples.

They’re great in samples smaller than a season though.

Interesting stuff, thanks for posting. I'd be curious to know who Klefbom was playing with when he was away from Larsson last year? Russell? Benning? And how large was that sample size?

 

[HenrikW]

Larsson was getting 50% more SHTOI in NJD then here in EMD over the last 2 seasons. I can't understand why? Defensively and physically he's one of the better defenders in the league. Why is Klefbom, who is our only PP blueliner, playing as many minutes per season as Larsson? Last year you could say it's because they played on the same line but this?? They've barely been together. It's just so absurd

 

[Asiaoil]

Nurse is only 23 and he spiked to 26 points which were 100% ES. He only got 38 minutes of PP time (2nd team) all year and no PP points. If he can work on his shot over the summer, and continue to improve other parts of his game, he could be close to a 40 point top pair dmen with 2nd pair PP minutes. Heʻs off his ELC now and no need to suppress the counting numbers after heʻs signed. They will let him off the hook next year.

Next year is the time to go after another RHD when we can trade the Sekera contract. If Reggie can come back to 90% of the player he was in 16-17 then he is easily tradable and that opens up more than enough cap room. Realistic targets are Myers, Savard and Gudas and you play one of those guys with Klef on the 2nd pair which would make it a bit easier on Klef as well.