a look back at the 05 draft

[Jason MacIsaac]

At the time Rask was an extreme boom/bust pick and still is to a certain extent. And, as it is looking so far, Atlanta made the better goalie pick with Pavelec.

Alex Bourret is all about risks as well. Picking him means you have to think that: (a) his offense will translate to the NHL and (b) his physical style will both translate to the NHL and not injure him repeatedly.

Oshie was a selection so far off the board that no one saw it coming. He was ranked 111 by ISS and 43 by CSB in the NA skaters category, and drafting a HS product in the 1st round is never a sure thing.

Bergfors is one of those guys that doesn't have a particularly high ceiling outside of Devils thinking circles. He's certainly a hard worker and will get the job done but Zags is much more dynamic offensively and has much better hands IMO.

And I'm not saying that my opinion is fact, but I think that it's ridiculous, nay riCOCKulous that you would suggest Zagrapan more a more of a risk than any others drafted around the position he was drafted in.

Just wonder why you don't feel he has much of a ceiling considering he led the rats in points as an 18 year old and has been compared by many to Daniel Alfredson.

I really don't think Zagrapan will get 40 points in 65 AHL games next year.

 

[crashlanding]

Just wonder why you don't feel he has much of a ceiling considering he led the rats in points as an 18 year old and has been compared by many to Daniel Alfredson.

I really don't think Zagrapan will get 40 points in 65 AHL games next year.

Just adding that he did it on one of the worst teams in the AHL as well.

 

[Pete Rock]

Just wonder why you don't feel he has much of a ceiling considering he led the rats in points as an 18 year old and has been compared by many to Daniel Alfredson.

I really don't think Zagrapan will get 40 points in 65 AHL games next year.

Bergfors was the active Rats leader in points but Suglobov put up more points with Albany before his trade to the Torontos of the NHL and AHL.

Considering the comparisons to Alfredsson, I don't think those are at all fair at this point, and I'm wondering what people are making it. Yes he can skate, yes lots of people talk about his work ethic, and yes he plays solid 2-way but there are many in the NHL that have those things as well but don't/can't play on a 1st line. I just don't see it but I could very well be wrong.

As for Zagrapan not scoring 40 points in 65 games, I'm almost sure you'll be eating those words unless Zagrapan doesn't actually play that much in the AHL next year, in which I'd bet a handsome sum of vBucks that his PPG would be better.

Just adding that he did it on one of the worst teams in the AHL as well.

Maybe I've misconstrued what you are trying to say here, but it sounds like you're saying that leading a no-talent team in scoring is harder than leading a team in scoring surrounded by people who can actually score.

Or maybe you just forgot the sarcasm smiley.

 

[Phenomenon]

At the time Rask was an extreme boom/bust pick and still is to a certain extent. And, as it is looking so far, Atlanta made the better goalie pick with Pavelec.

Based on what? At that time Rask made new records in Finnish juniors with phenomenal numbers. Yes, he was not able to win the by himself for U18 team, but he still was one of the best players in every game.

Last year Rask was the best goalie (and IMO the MVP player) in WJC and also made a real breakthrough in the Finnish league and was the best goalie (after Christmas) in the spring season. He was certainly a top 3 goalie in a league that IMO has the greatest goalies outside the NHL. Now at the age of 19 he is a starting goalie in his his team and a unquestioned top goalie in his age group, so where's the bust? Out of Finns only Lehtonen has been as good as he is at this age.

 

[X-SHARKIE]

Rask was my fav goalie in the 05 draft and he did nothing but improve himself and his stock after his draft year. IMO he's the best goaltending prospect out there if you don't consider some of the players who already made the NHL ones like Ward or Toivonen.

Rask IMO not only will start, but he'll be a star. He looks to be a special goaltender.

Sure Pavelec was great value, but Rask >>>> Pavelec easily IMO.

 

[Pavel Bure]

I think Pavelic was a steal in the 2nd round.

 

[RangerBoy]

I think Pavelic was a steal in the 2nd round.

Pavelec was selected with the pick(#41) the Rangers sent to Atlanta to move up from #16 to #12.The Rangers acquired the pick from the Flyers in the Vladimir Malakhov trade.The Rangers selected Marc Staal with #12.A good trade for the Rangers and Thrashers

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Maybe I've misconstrued what you are trying to say here, but it sounds like you're saying that leading a no-talent team in scoring is harder than leading a team in scoring surrounded by people who can actually score.

Yes, especially when talking about the Albany River Rats.

EDIT: No, he was moreso responding to Bergfors' point totals.

 

[crashlanding]

Yes, especially when talking about the Albany River Rats.

EDIT: No, he was moreso responding to Bergfors' point totals.

Yeah, that's what I was referring to, his point totals.

 

[Redwingsfan]

i just can't believe you said pavelec is better than rask.
and bergfors is probably a step a head off zagrapan right now same thing for oshie. oshie was amazing this season with UND. in he's freshman year. rask has just about no chance off busting. he had a great season with ilves and was amazing in the wjc. right now you cant even compare pavelec with rask.

 

[SpItFiReZ]

no chance of busting? Im pretty sure any prospect can be a bust. Malkin could be a bust. To say someone (Especially a goaltender) won't bust is completely wrong unless you can predict the future.

While Rask is a very good goalie, Pavelec has competed a very high level as well as being a top goalie in Canada last year and by far the best in the QMJHL. We will see how he does in the AHL. Rask isn't quite polished yet but has all the tools to become a successful tender...just needs to get it all together over the next few years he has to grow as a prospect.

 

[NHLFanSince2020]

Just for reference, here are the goalies that were taken top 10 from 1990-2000:


2000 Rick Dipietro (NYI), Brent Kahn (CAL)
1999 Brian Finley (NAS)
1997 Roberto Luongo (NYI)
1994 Jamie Storr (LA)
1993 Jocelyn Thibault (QUE)

Here are the goalies that were taken from 11-30 of the first round (1990-2000):

1999 Maxime Ouellet (PHI, no22), Ari Ahonen (NJ, no27)
1998 Patrice Desrochers (PHO, no14), Mathieu Chouinard (OTT, no15)
1997 Mika Noronen (BUF, no21), Jean-Francois Damphousse (NJ, no 24)
1996 Craig Hillier (PIT, no23)
1995 Jean-Sebastien Giguere (HART, no13), Martin Biron (BUF, no 16), Brian Boucher (PHI, no22), Marc Denis (COL, no25)
1994 Eric Fichaud (TOR, no16), Evgeni Ryabchikov (BOS, no21), Dan Cloutier (NYR, no 26)
1990 Trevor Kidd (CAL, no11), Martin Brodeur (NJ, no20)

What about goalies that were taken later? (known names...)

2000 Ilya Briozgalov (44th), Mikael Tellqvist (70th), Roman Cechmanek (171st), Henrik Lundqvist (205th),
1999 Alex Auld (40th), Jan Lasak (65th), Sebastien Caron (86th), Ryan Miller (138th), Martin Prusek (164th)
1998 Philippe Sauvé (38th), Jason Labarbera (66th), Andrew Raycroft (135th), Antero Niittymaki (168th)
1997 David Aebischer (161st)
1996 Mathieu Garon (44th), Robert Esche (139th)
1995 Jean-Sebastien Aubin (76th), Miikka Kiprusoff (116th), Chris Mason (122nd)
1994 Jose Theodore (44th), Marty Turco (124th), Tim Thomas (217th), Johan Hedberg (218th), Evgeni Nabokov (219th), Tomas Vokoun (226th), John Grahame (229th)
1993 Kevin Weekes (41st), Tommy Salo (118th), Patrick Lalime (156th), Manny Legace (188th)
1992 Jim Carrey (32nd), Manny Fernandez (52nd), Nikolai Khabibulin (204th)
1991 Jamie McLennan (48th), Chris Osgood (54th), Steve Shields (101st)
1990 Felix Potvin (31st), Mike Dunham (53rd), Roman Turek (113rd), Corey Schwab (200th)

Although there are a ton of goalies that don't work out after the 1st round, picking a top 10 goalie overall doesn't always work out...

Thanks for the research.

I was thinking about gathering this same information recently and am happy to see it was done for me.

 

[Redwingsfan]

no chance of busting? Im pretty sure any prospect can be a bust. Malkin could be a bust. To say someone (Especially a goaltender) won't bust is completely wrong unless you can predict the future.

While Rask is a very good goalie, Pavelec has competed a very high level as well as being a top goalie in Canada last year and by far the best in the QMJHL. We will see how he does in the AHL. Rask isn't quite polished yet but has all the tools to become a successful tender...just needs to get it all together over the next few years he has to grow as a prospect.

i didn't say no chanse i said just about no chanse. and rask isn't quite polished thats just stupid. i was able to see a lot of the games he played in finland this season and the wjc. and he is very polished. if boston where in need of a #1 goalie right now i think he would have done a fine job. pavelec had a good season in the qmjhl, but the finnish elite league is miles ahead of the q and rask was one of the best goalies in that league. and may i ask how many games you have seen rask play. i would like to now what you base this on.

 

[WILDTATE10]

I've been quiet for sometime now, but I have to address the Pouliot pick. Minnesota made an outstanding pick there at the time. A lot of Wild fans were clamoring to get him. And they are still high on the pick. He has the size, the speed, and the ability to become a superstar. Minnesota needed a big forward with some skill. Pouliot is by no means a power forward but as shown, he can hit, and he has the ability to elevate his game. I think he'll do just that if you read the quotes right on what is expected from him and what he expects. I think you'll be surprised at how well Lemaire will mold him and I think he'll reach his potentional in Minnesota.

Him and Gaborik should make a great duo.

 

[Bam Beet*]

What do you think of the trade the Avs made with Washington. I can't remember exactly what happened but i know the Avs traded away their 27th pick for 32 and another pick that i can't remember where. Essentially it was Joe Finley(27) for Ryan Stoa(32) and another pick.

 

[Maitz]

as a habs fan Im very happy with our draft because we got a 2nd line powerfoward in latendresse and a potential #1 goaltender in price + kostistyn seems to be a real steal

 

[Pete Rock]

Based on what? At that time Rask made new records in Finnish juniors with phenomenal numbers. Yes, he was not able to win the by himself for U18 team, but he still was one of the best players in every game.

Last year Rask was the best goalie (and IMO the MVP player) in WJC and also made a real breakthrough in the Finnish league and was the best goalie (after Christmas) in the spring season. He was certainly a top 3 goalie in a league that IMO has the greatest goalies outside the NHL. Now at the age of 19 he is a starting goalie in his his team and a unquestioned top goalie in his age group, so where's the bust? Out of Finns only Lehtonen has been as good as he is at this age.

Maybe I'm wrong, but from what I saw in scouting reports about Rask he seemed to have some serious consistency/stamina issues. Many a would-be-great have fallen victim to these things.

 

[Pete Rock]

i just can't believe you said pavelec is better than rask.

I can't believe that you found it that funny.

As SpItFiReZ pointed out, Pavelec was the most dominant goaltender in the Q last year and was certainly in the top 3 in Canadian Junior Hockey.

and bergfors is probably a step a head off zagrapan right now same thing for oshie. oshie was amazing this season with UND. in he's freshman year.

That's all fine and dandy, but I still think that Zags has a higher ceiling than either of those two, which is ideally what you draft for is it not?

rask has just about no chance off busting. he had a great season with ilves and was amazing in the wjc. right now you cant even compare pavelec with rask.

Rask could bust just as much as the next goaltending prospect (Marek Schwarz certainly comes to mind). Pavelec could bust too, but I think there's less of a chance of that than with Rask.

But what do I know really?

 

[Phenomenon]

IMO the expectations that a 17-year old Tuukka Rask could take straigth away a no 1 job in the Finnish league during the lockout year were unfair. There were NHL goalies like Roloson, Vokoun, Raycroft, Noronen and Toskala at that time adding competition for the goaltender jobs in the league, so claiming a starterts job was harder than normal and also Ilves had already a very experienced tandem. It was better for his development to play in juniors than to be a third or fourth stringer behind Toskala, Pitkämäki and/or Riksman. Remember that last year's Calder Trophy winner Raycroft was not even able be nothing more than a backup goalie, so it is justified to say that the level of goaltending was very high.

A conclusion that not making an impact in the league level due to serious stamina and inconsistency issues was exaggerated. He just needed more experience and was not at that time ready for the league which had a very high level in goaltending. Inconsistency is normal for a young kid like him playing his first games in the league level where the game is totally different from the one in juniors. Experience brings more self-confidence and via that calmness and consistency. Also if someone shows me a game (from the time before draft) where Rask has been so exhausted due to his lack of stamina that it has affected his play, I am ready to believe reports about "serious stamina issues". Yes - he could have had more weight and muscles, but gaining them is no real problem nowadays.

At the moment no-one is talking about his inconstincy, but rather asking that is he already ready to be an all-star goalie in the league and to take the spot in Team Finland and how can he handle all the pressure from the military service, beeing a starter in his team, beeing a starter and key pleyer in WJC, maybe EHT, maybe World Championships next spring etc. Lots of things for a young guy to manage at the same time.

 

[Redwingsfan]

it's just a little funny ok pavelec was good in a junior league against boys. rask was good in one of the best senior leagues in the world against men. and i'm not saying pavelec will be a bust or he is a bad goalie i'm just saying that rask will be amazing. as for the inconsistensy that was at the start of the year when he was new in the game. after christmas he was the best goalie in the league. and that he has bad stamina how can you even say that. remember the game against sweden in the wjc. he stopped all 53 shots in that game. the game whent to sudden death and finland won 1-0. rask has allready proven he can play against men pavelec hasn't proven much yet. he will have to have good season in the AHL before you can say he has less chanse then rask of becoming a bust.



not all the teams draft for high ceiling. thats completely different from one team to another.

 

[MALKIN IS GOD !!!!!!*]

Oh, you must be talking about that guy Lundqvist. The Pens can have all the O they can get but if they don't have a D man who can defend and move the puck up to them, it is useless.

Gonchar, Eaton, Orpik, Whitney, Welch, Goligoski, Letang, Sneep, Strait - we will be A o.k

 

[Mr. Hab]

Theodore had been a holdout twice already, holding the team for randsom after his big trophy season. From what I heard from Gainey he said they felt they got the best player at that position and went with him after his interview since they loved his character and maturity. Only hearsay but I heard some talk that Brule was demanding to play in the NHL, but that could be completely untrue and pointless now anyways. The Habs made their pick and if it's a mistake, it won't be the first or last time just like with Kostitsyn.

But you bring up Price's average season (yes he did wear NHL pads even though he didn't have to, this year the goalies have to) But you discount the fact that at 17 he was one of the top goalies in the WHL. Maybe at 17 it was a fluke or the fact that Tri City was a weaker team and he couldn't step up. Time will tell, not a big fan of the pick, wanted Staal or Bourdon cause we are sorely lacking quality D prospects but I understood the pick and hope he has a big year. If the Habs took Brule there would be all kinds of posts about how the Habs took another small skilled forward, so they can't win. I expect Brule to be a great player so the Habs will likely regret the pick from that standpoint but it's not about one player, the Habs need to upgrade at a lot of positions, so hopefully they got their goalie of the future, although I've yet to be sold, although he did just turn 19, so he's got a lot of time still.

I agree with what is on top...

I'm still hoping Carey Price can do what Cam Ward did/does for Carolina; what Miller did/does for Buffalo...
I like everything I've read about Price (tall, huge, great glove side, puckhandler, very talented/poised, can win games all by himself just like Crosby...). A great/very good goalie is way more important than one great/very good player.

We might have to wait 2-3 years though for Price (Huet, Aebischer, Danis...).

 

[NeonDion]

pelech looks like a wrong choice

Care to enlighten us as to what the "right" pick would have been?

I'm sick and tired of Vacouver fans thinking that Bourdon is going to be a star and Pelech is going to be a bust. Bourdon has about the same chance of being a star as Noronen did to turn into Kiprusoff.

Pelech is younger and his development was hampered by injuries. He's big mobile and is smart with the puck he may not have the PP quarterbacking talent of elite defensemen, but he knows what to do with it in his own zone.

To those who think he was playing soft, I guess Sakic is soft because he didn't do so hot at the olympics with his facial fracture. It's a freaking broken jaw people. It hurts. The guy has the intensity and drive to take his game to the next level. He gets down blocks a shot with his mouth and comes back to finish the game. He has great ceiling to be a good shutdown defenseman in the Norstrom mold.

He's consistently being sought after by OHL teams looking for a big defensive peice, to me that says that he's a valuable comodity at his level. He will undoubtedly take longer to develop, but given his drive and intensity and baring any further injury, he'll make it to the big league as a 3-4 shutdow defenceman.

 

[Pete Rock]

I'm sick and tired of Vacouver fans thinking that Bourdon is going to be a star and Pelech is going to be a bust. Bourdon has about the same chance of being a star as Noronen did to turn into Kiprusoff.

That's a little harsh isn't it?

Bourdon has a lot going for him like a booming shot, strong body presence, a strong work ethic and incredible speed. Sure he could bust but I think the chances of that happening are pretty slim.

 

[NeonDion]

That's a little harsh isn't it?

Bourdon has a lot going for him like a booming shot, strong body presence, a strong work ethic and incredible speed. Sure he could bust but I think the chances of that happening are pretty slim.

I don't think bourdon will bust; he'll defineatly be an NHL regular baring farther injury. However, most of the canucks fans seem to think he's the second coming of Dion Phaneuf and don't understand that is just not going to happen.

While Bourdon seems to have all the right tools, he sometimes seems to forget that on the ice playing well for stretches before disappearing again. I don't know why, but he has good potential.

However, Gauthier had almost as much offense as Bourdon did in his last two years in the Q, so I hesitate to put so much value on bourdon's numbers right now.

If Bourdon doesn't fulfill all his potential, he can still be a solid 4-5 guy in the NHL, if he reaches it, he could be a good 3-4 guy possibly a 2 on some teams.