9th Baseball ATD Round 4 WS Montreal at Cleveland

[Pwnasaurus]

I flipped a virtual coin to decide HFA.

Montreal Royals

Manager: Connie Mack

Position Players​

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Pitchers​

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Lineup​

C: Josh Gibson (R) | SP1: Nolan Ryan (R) | 1. Tim Raines (S)
1B: Willie McCovey (L) | SP2: Eddie Plank (L) | 2. Roberto Alomar (S)
2B: Roberto Alomar (S) | SP3: Don Drysdale (R) | 3. Alex Rodriguez (R)
3B: Alex Rodriguez (R) | SP4: Kevin Brown (R) | 4. Josh Gibson (R)
SS: Ozzie Smith (S) | SP5: Jim Kaat (L) | 5. Willie McCovey (L)
LF: Tim Raines (S) | | 6. Jim Edmonds (L)
CF: Jim Edmonds (L) | Mid1: Jim Brewer (L) | 7. Andre Dawson (R)
RF: Andre Dawson (R) | Mid2: Rick Aguilera (R) | 8. Ozzie Smith (S)
Bench: OF Kirby Puckett (R) | Short1: Mike Marshall (R) | 9. Pitcher's Spot
Bench: OF Bernie Williams (S) | Short2: Ron Perranoski (L)
Bench: OF Dave Winfield (R) | Closer: John Wetteland (R)
Bench: C Darrell Porter (L) |
Bench: 1B Roger Connor (L) |
Bench: 2B Bobby Doerr (R) |
Bench: 3B Ray Dandridge (R) |

Cleveland Naps:


Manager: Sparky Anderson

Position Players​

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Pitchers​

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Lineup​

C: Bill Dickey | SP1: Smokey Joe Williams R | 1. Billy Hamilton L
1B: Jimmie Foxx | SP2: Whitey Ford L | 2. Rogers Hornsby R
2B: Rogers Hornsby | SP3: John Smoltz R | 3. Jimmie Foxx R
3B: Mike Schmidt | SP4: Smoky Joe Wood R | 4. Mel Ott L
SS: Joe Cronin | SP5: Early Wynn R | 5. Mike Schmidt R
LF: Goose Goslin | Long1: Waite Hoyt R | 6. Goose Goslin L
CF: Billy Hamilton | Mid1: Martin Dihigo R | 7. Bill Dickey L
RF: Mel Ott | Mid2: Chris Sale L | 8. Joe Cronin R
Bench: Dick Allen R (3B/1B/OF) | Short1: Steve Bedrosian R | 9. Pitcher's Spot
Bench: Thurman Munson R (C) | Short2: Tug McGraw L
Bench: John McGraw L (SS/2B/3B) | Closer: Bruce Sutter R
Bench: Hack Wilson R (OF) |
Bench: Max Carey S (OF) |
Bench: Carlos Delgado L (1B) |

Click to read more...

 

[UL Washington]

Here's my analysis. I'll try to be objective, but obviously there's going to be some bias here since I draft the players I like or think are underrated.

The challenge here is that the Royals best player doesn't have reliable stats to compare, so I propose the following comparision...I've used Mel Ott stats and applied them to Gibson. That means 511 career HR, 1860 RBI, .947 OPS, etc...which given that he's a catcher could warrant a top 3 pick. Hope people see this as a fair compromise.

So the comparables are:

Offense - 162 game averages
Naps: 113 R, 22 R, 109 RBI, 19 SB, .316 AVG, .409 OBP, .925 OPS, 144 OPS+

Royals: 97 R, 24 HR, 89 RBI, 21 SB, .286 AVG, .370 OBP, .846 OPS, 127 OPS+

Naps have a pretty significant edge on offense.

Defense
Naps: +31.9 dWar

Royals: +30.7 dWar (this doesn't include any dWar for Gibson)

I'm going to assume Gibson would have had enough dWar to give the Royals the edge. Ozzie Smith's 43.4 dWar alone won the battle here.

Starting Rotation - Top 4 162 game averages

I'm excluding Smokey Joe Williams's stats here. Many believe he was comparable to Mathewson and Alexander, but in the interest of transparency, I'm excluding his stats and will let voters make adjustments as they want.

Naps: 17-9, 164 K, 2.70 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 135 ERA+

Royals: 16-11, 180 K, 2.94 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 121 ERA+

This is close. Smokey Joe Williams and Nolan Ryan are the wild cards here. Some people love Ryan, others think he's overrated. Some people love Williams, others don't know much about him. I (being biased) give the edge to the Naps since I'm a Williams fan, and don't like Ryan and his inconsistency as a #1 in this format. But the starting rotation is more of a personal opinion. Neither rotations are elite, but both are good.

Bullpen

I'm losing steam here so maybe I'll do the stats on the bullpens later, but Naps appear to have a big advantage here.

This is a pretty good matchup. Hopefully there are still a few around who will vote in this. I'd rather have all 16 teams vote and lose than have 5 people vote and win.

 

[td_ice]

The Royals have a good team. But head to head, I have Naps ahead fairly comfortably.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I think here is where the extra bench bat would be way more beneficial as a pen arm

 

[le_sean]

Well first of all, I do appreciate that you have given Mel Ott's stats to Josh Gibson. However, by all accounts, Gibson would have had higher numbers. And it's nice to come up with 162 game averages for players, but Billy Hamilton skews those numbers a bit. I find it difficult to believe someone with a 0.88 ISO would have a 141 OPS+. Clearly a favourable era is not taken into account here.

Something doesn't add up about the 162 game averages either. You need to look at each player in the starting lineup side by side. Clearly there’s inflation thanks to your #8 hitter Cronin vs. Ozzie Smith. Quite unfair if you ask me as our top guys are comparable, but Edmonds and Dawson blow Goslin and Dickey out of the water. I didn’t look at the benches, but I would say that is in my favour as well.

Royals​

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Naps​

1) Tim Raines 170 HRs (11 per 162) | Billy Hamilton 40 HRs (4 per 162)
2) Roberto Alomar 210 HRs (14 per 162) | Rogers Hornsby 301 HRs (22 per 162)
3) Alex Rodriguez 696 HRs (41 per 162) | Jimmie Foxx 534 HRs (37 per 162)
4) Josh Gibson Unknown, >511 | Mel Ott 511 HRs (30 per 162)
5) Willie McCovey 521 HRs (33 per 162) | Mike Schmidt 548 HRs (37 per 162)
6) Jim Edmonds 393 HRs (32 per 162) | Goose Goslin 248 HRs (18 per 162)
7) Andre Dawson 438 HRs (27 per 162) | Bill Dickey 202 HRs (18 per 162)
8) Ozzie Smith 28 Hrs (2 per 162) | Joe Cronin 170 HRs (13 per 162)

Also, let’s not ignore the fact that only Hamilton has more than 200 SBs on your team. I have Raines, Alomar, Rodriguez, Dawson and Smith all in my lineup with more than 300 SBs. Clearly that will be a major factor. So in my estimate, power and speed are my advantage.

 

[UL Washington]

Well first of all, I do appreciate that you have given Mel Ott's stats to Josh Gibson. However, by all accounts, Gibson would have had higher numbers. And it's nice to come up with 162 game averages for players, but Billy Hamilton skews those numbers a bit. I find it difficult to believe someone with a 0.88 ISO would have a 141 OPS+. Clearly a favourable era is not taken into account here.

OPS+ absolutely takes era into account. Hamilton wasn't a power threat, but his high average and OBP results in the 141 OPS+

Something doesn't add up about the 162 game averages either. You need to look at each player in the starting lineup side by side. Clearly there’s inflation thanks to your #8 hitter Cronin vs. Ozzie Smith. Quite unfair if you ask me as our top guys are comparable, but Edmonds and Dawson blow Goslin and Dickey out of the water. I didn’t look at the benches, but I would say that is in my favour as well.

Saying Edmonds and Dawson blow Goslin and Dickey out of the water is absolute insanity. Yes, they have more total home runs, but Goslin and Dickey are more complete hitters than a Dawson/Edmonds combination. I'll take a .315 AVG, .385 OBP, 128 OPS+ over a .282 AVG, .350 OBP, 126 OPS+. Even if you wouldn't, saying that either combination blows the other out of the water is goofy.

If you want to get into era comparisons (as with Hamilton), then you have to agree that not all homeruns are created equal. A 500 HR hitter in the 30's is far more impressive than a 500 HR hitter in the 90s. So comparing absolute numbers isn't a valid approach in an ATD

If you look at career homeruns over average, the top 10 in history are:

Ruth (619)
Bonds (496)
Aaron (455)
McGwire (406)
Foxx (403)
Mays (390)
Ott (375)
Schmidt (375)
Gehrig (375)
Killebrew (370)

Dawson had 220 HR over average, which is in line with Hornsby's 214.

Also, let’s not ignore the fact that only Hamilton has more than 200 SBs on your team. I have Raines, Alomar, Rodriguez, Dawson and Smith all in my lineup with more than 300 SBs. Clearly that will be a major factor. So in my estimate, power and speed are my advantage.

I will admit you have the speed advantage. Hamilton is my only speed threat and his stats are padded by the stolen base rule in effect at that time.

 

[Pwnasaurus]

Rogers Hornsby saved 3 people from a burning building while hitting .675 in the series and the Naps win the ATD title by a series victory of 4 games to 2.


Congrats to both teams for putting together squads certainly worthy of their #1 seed.

 

[darko]

Only because firemen took their sweet time getting there.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Congrats UL. That is a hell of a lineup you put together.

 

[le_sean]

Congrats UL! That's a great team you put together.

Thanks everyone. I hope you come back as commish Pwn, this is wonderful.

 

[UL Washington]

Thanks guys. Some really good teams this go around so I'm very happy to have another ATD trophy on my mantle.

 

[NJDevs26]

Congrats UL! Felt you had the best team all along.

If this does come back again next year I'll join up time permitting. If not it's been fun.