9th Baseball ATD Round 2 AL Albuquerque @ Cleveland

Pwnasaurus · Mar 2, 2017

Albuquerque Dukes

Manager: Dick Williams

Position Players

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Pitchers

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Lineup

Cleveland Naps:

Manager: Sparky Anderson

Position Players

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Pitchers

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Lineup

bluesfan94 · Mar 6, 2017

My analysis:

Infield: At this point in the draft, splitting hairs becomes more and more important. Both teams have plus infields overall. However, the Naps infield is fantastic. Cronin is obviously the weakest player, but that just shows how strong they are. Having players like Schmidt, Hornsby, and Foxx is just unfair when making comparisons like this. I do think the Dukes are stronger at SS and C, but not enough to win this category.

Outfield: Where the Dukes do make up some ground is the outfield. I agree that Griffey Jr is a first round player in this format. He hurts you in the regular season taking injuries into account, but I don't consider that important when we get to the playoffs. I'm a big Zack Wheat fan as well; he's often overlooked. I also like Vlad and having bad ball hitters is important. That's not to take anything away from the Naps. Ott is a great pick, Hamilton is speedy, although Berra will limit that to an extent. I'm not really sure about Goslin but from what I do know he was a decently powerful left fielder who hit for average and got on base. Not a bad profile. Still advantage Dukes.

Rotation: This one is really hard for me. I'm assuming a 4 man rotation for the playoffs unless told otherwise. I think Gibson is better than Williams and I'm a big Smokey Joe fan (shoutout also to both Smok(e)y Joe's being on the same team). Besides that, I think the rotations are pretty even. Ford/Newhouser are both good lefties, Smoltz/Roberts good righties, and then you have Shocker (who I do love) and Smoky Joe Wood (who I also love). This is really splitting hairs and I would love to see arguments here. The Cards fan in me might lean towards the Dukes, but I'm honestly not sure.

Bench/Bullpen: Lester dropping to the 'pen gives the Dukes three lefties which I think is important come postseason. However, I think Naps has the better lefties. I also adore Martin DiHigo. Sutter and Smith being the closer battle is just so much fun to me. Both are great and I see them as pretty much equal.

Overall: This is a very very good matchup. The Naps' infield is hard to overlook, but they have deficiencies elsewhere. As always, make your case before tonight. I actually do tend to give points for that.

Winger for Hire · Mar 6, 2017

Wouldn't it be more sensible to see how the teams pitching matches up with the opposing lineups.

Seems wrong and dishonest to vote on who has the better lineup and such, ignoring who they'd be going up against. It's fine for regular season voting, but head to head it doesn't work.

bluesfan94 · Mar 6, 2017

Owners are more than welcome to provide that information. I'm not going to make arguments for them, I'm just providing my observations. This also isn't the only way I judge a series.

Winger for Hire · Mar 6, 2017

bluesfan94 said:
Owners are more than welcome to provide that information. I'm not going to make arguments for them, I'm just providing my observations. This also isn't the only way I judge a series.

You're sort of making arguments for them by posting your reviews. I'm not saying you're not allowed to, you certainly are, but at least do it in a way that's beneficial to the match-up.

Who cares who has the better #2 starter if the one you deem better is pitching against a lineup that has killer splits against his handedness?

Don't get me wrong, I like reading your write-ups and such. This year has lacked people discussing there teams, or anything from that matter.

bluesfan94 · Mar 6, 2017

Frankly, I'm not entirely willing to look up splits for every player in a lineup and compare them to splits against every pitcher in a rotation. That's something a manager can do if he/she so decides and, if provided, is something that i'll consider when I make my final evaluation. Mostly, my analysis is provided to help spur conversation.

Winger for Hire · Mar 6, 2017

bluesfan94 said:
Frankly, I'm not entirely willing to look up splits for every player in a lineup and compare them to splits against every pitcher in a rotation. That's something a manager can do if he/she so decides and, if provided, is something that i'll consider when I make my final evaluation. Mostly, my analysis is provided to help spur conversation.

You're a saint.

And it's not exactly a huge chore to go to B-R and quickly look at splits. Probably takes less time then going over all the stuff in your write-ups.

Say Hey Kid · Mar 6, 2017

Winger for Hire said:
...And it's not exactly a huge chore to go to B-R and quickly look at splits. Probably takes less time then going over all the stuff in your write-ups.

Perhaps this is what you meant, but this is an argument why the GMs should do it, not why Bluesfan should do it for every series including the already concluded first round.

Say Hey Kid · Mar 6, 2017

bluesfan94 said:
My analysis: ... Outfield: Where the Dukes do make up some ground is the outfield. I agree that Griffey Jr is a first round player in this format. ...

1. Babe Ruth+ (22) 183.6 L
2. Cy Young+ (22) 168.4 R
3. Walter Johnson+ (21) 165.6 R
4. Barry Bonds (22) 162.4 L
5. Willie Mays+ (22) 156.2 R
6. Ty Cobb+ (24) 151.1 L
7. Hank Aaron+ (23) 142.6 R
8. Roger Clemens (24) 140.3 R
9. Tris Speaker+ (22) 133.7 L
10. Honus Wagner+ (21) 131.0 R
11. Stan Musial+ (22) 128.1 L
12. Rogers Hornsby+ (23) 127.0 R
13. Eddie Collins+ (25) 123.9 L
14. Ted Williams+ (19) 123.2 L
15. Pete Alexander+ (20) 120.0 R
16. Alex Rodriguez (22) 117.7 R

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_career.shtml

In this format, who is Griffey better than?

Winger for Hire · Mar 6, 2017

Wrigley said:
Perhaps this is what you meant, but this is an argument why the GMs should do it, not why Bluesfan should do it for every series including the already concluded first round.

Yes, it is. Thanks for catching that. Now that you pointed that out, I see how that could be misconstrued as me taking bluesfan to task for not being 16 GMs at once.

My apologies to bluesfan if you took offence to that. I seem so salty because I'm disappointed with the lack of participation this year.

Wrigley said:
In this format, who is Griffey better than?

Tom Seaver.. wink wink

bluesfan94 · Mar 6, 2017

Wrigley said:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_career.shtml

In this format, who is Griffey better than?

That's a good point although I'm not entirely sure career WAR is the best reference to use. Griffey's career WAR is hurt because he fell off a bit after being injured. I don't think that should take away from his prime though.

-=-
WfH, I'm not taking offense, no worries. I agree, I would like more participation in this part of the draft.

Winger for Hire · Mar 6, 2017

bluesfan94 said:
WfH, I'm not taking offense, no worries. I agree, I would like more participation in this part of the draft.

Good, I don't want to lose your vote for my all Japanese team coming next season. :laugh:

Tecumseh · Mar 6, 2017

Career WAR is a misleading way to measure Griffey Jr. here and I was well aware that he did not have the benefit of longevity as much as others when I drafted him at the ninth spot. I would put his peak up against anybody in this draft. He was only recognized with one MVP award but he has a strong case for 1993, 1994, 1996, and 1998. It's difficult to speculate on what could have been but I'm willing to bet he'd be close to 800 career home runs if he had stayed healthy during the Cincinnati years.

When I look at UL's infield, I'm not surprised people favored his. Many of his early picks were spent on Foxx, Schmidt, and Hornsby. If we compare position to position, Schmidt has an obvious advantage over Boyer but nevertheless Boyer was the last player I added as part of my starting lineup and I think he was a damn good pick considering how late I got him. My best move in the draft was to trade up for Greenberg and I believe he measures up relatively well against Foxx. In terms of power, I find them to be about the same. Foxx has the benefit of not having four prime years being interrupted by World War II.

As for the starting rotation, it all comes down to personal preference, I suppose. However, I believe I have the clearly best pitcher in Gibson. Roberts and Newhouser match up well against the Naps #2 and #3. As bluesfan assumed, Lester will be dropping back in the bullpen just as he did in my last series. I've never faced UL in a series before but he always drafts an excellent team and if this series goes the distance then I'll be happy regardless of the outcome.

Say Hey Kid · Mar 6, 2017

Pedro Guerrero (15) 137 R
Chuck Klein+ (17) 137 L
Sherry Magee (16) 137 R
Al Rosen (10) 137 R
Rank Player (yrs, age) Adjusted OPS+ Bats
Reggie Smith (17) 137 B
102. Fred Carroll (8) 136 R
Larry Doby+ (13) 136 L
Jim Gentile (9) 136 L
Brian Giles (15) 136 L
George Gore (14) 136 L
Ken Griffey+ (22) 136 L

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_plus_slugging_plus_career.shtml

In 1700 less ABs Mantle has the 21st best WAR of 109.7. In 1700 more ABs Griffey has the 57th best WAR of 83.6. Being injured helps your OPS+, because you have less ABs. Griffey is outside the top 100, worse than or tied with the other retired players listed above.

UL Washington · Mar 6, 2017

bluesfan94 said:
My analysis:
Outfield: Where the Dukes do make up some ground is the outfield. I agree that Griffey Jr is a first round player in this format. He hurts you in the regular season taking injuries into account, but I don't consider that important when we get to the playoffs. I'm a big Zack Wheat fan as well; he's often overlooked. I also like Vlad and having bad ball hitters is important. That's not to take anything away from the Naps. Ott is a great pick, Hamilton is speedy, although Berra will limit that to an extent. I'm not really sure about Goslin but from what I do know he was a decently powerful left fielder who hit for average and got on base. Not a bad profile. Still advantage Dukes.

I agree with most your analysis, but don`t really see how the Dukes `make up some ground in the outfield`.

Looking at objective measures, my OF has a better JAWS (188 vs 166), higher average OPS+ (141 vs 135) and even a slighter better dWar (although by only 0.4 points).

If you aren`t overly familiar with Goose, I recommend you read up on him. If you like Zack Wheat, he`s very similar, but with an even better peak.

Tecumseh · Mar 6, 2017

I would figure there'd have to be an adjustment for OPS+ in terms of where Billy Hamilton is concerned considering the era he played in. He retired in 1901 and played in an era where pitching was not at a premium whatsoever. How well could we honestly expect him to hit off Gibson or Newhouser or even Shocker?

UL Washington · Mar 6, 2017

You can make that argument about almost any era. Its thought that someone like Walter Johnson topped out at 88 MPH...but compared to his peers he was the fastest. How would a guy that essentially only threw fastballs at 88MPH fare against Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols? Probably not good. But you see my point. Even in the 1920's, Joe Sewell struck out 3 times in one season, so how good could the pitching have been even then using evidence like that?

Best you can do is see how they did compared to their peers. In which case Hamilton had a 141 OPS+ even as a singles hitter. I think he's one of the best leadoff hitters in this format...a guy who got on base at a ridiculous pace and could run faster than anyone from that era. I see his skill set playing similar to Ichiro's in the modern era.

Tecumseh · Mar 6, 2017

I've always had the approach of looking at the dead ball era players with a grain of salt. Not discounting what they did but realizing that the numbers are a bit inflated. That's part of the reason why I like Zack Wheat who proved himself to excel in both the dead ball era and the era that followed. I remember people giving the San Francisco Giants a lot of crap for taking Tim Keefe as his 3rd starter and Hamilton falls into playing around the same time as him.

Pwnasaurus · Mar 7, 2017

The Naps offense kept on rolling this postseason as Rogers Hornsby continued his torrid pace at the dish en route to a 4-2 Cleveland series win and an ALCS berth.

Congrats to both teams for making the league semis with 2 great teams.

UL Washington · Mar 7, 2017

Tecumseh said:
I've always had the approach of looking at the dead ball era players with a grain of salt. Not discounting what they did but realizing that the numbers are a bit inflated. That's part of the reason why I like Zack Wheat who proved himself to excel in both the dead ball era and the era that followed. I remember people giving the San Francisco Giants a lot of crap for taking Tim Keefe as his 3rd starter and Hamilton falls into playing around the same time as him.

The difference is the evolution of pitching. Pitchers pitched from 50 feet away until something like 1893...so the Keefes and Welches of the world had a massive advantage. At least Hamilton played most of his career when pitching rules were pretty much the same as they are now.

Anyway, congrats on a good series.

Tecumseh · Mar 7, 2017

Agreed, good series. Glad to have gotten as far as I did. Best of luck the rest of the way.

9th Baseball ATD Round 2 AL Albuquerque @ Cleveland

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