Post-Game Talk: #6 | Panthers 1 at FLYERS 5 | Tue. Oct. 17, 7:00 pm ET

[BrindamoursNose]

The difference is at least Leighton had multiple shutouts against the Canadiens, meanwhile Manning doesn't justify his spot in the lineup. Admittedly, using a goalie was bad for my analogy. I should have used making the SCF with Lukas Krajicek instead.

Manning (and MacDonald) are known mediocre commodities. While the start of the season is encouraging, I highly question how much of a positive impact Manning has on any chemistry forming.

Eh I'm not sure that would've been a better analogy -- Krajicek was essentially a last resort for that lineup anyway.

I can agree with you on the Manning part for sure. Manning blows. McDonald...it's crazy, but I see value in McDonald. Now don't get me wrong -- I'd trade him right now if I could, but that's really due to his contract's bloated status. Otherwise, he's okay. His vet presence probably means more now than people care to believe.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

That's true, but I just don't see any way in the world that replacing Mandog (or Amacdog) with one of these guys constitutes throwing in the towel - if anything, we would be "going for it."

I think that's the opposite of what you just said truthfully. You were justifying putting the rookies in because we weren't going to win (basically trying to say "Meh, we can't win, so who cares if we try the kids?" (I'm paraphrasing, but it's effectively the same thing, IMO).

But getting back to the core of the whole topic and all -- I'd be shocked if putting Sanheim in for Manning shattered chemistry (in agreement with many other posters here), but chemistry can be a funny, delicate thing sometimes. All I'm saying is: Whatever they're doing, keep doing it. As a fan, I like W's...what can I say!

 

[Magua]

We keep saying, "If the team keeps playing as well as it has," but this team has an awful lot of warts that are being propped up by a 105 PDO. They're shooting over 10% at ES on the year. That's completely unsustainable.

Winning does not mean everything is being maximized. We really should be beyond that thinking in 2017.

It's still early where stats are a muddle, but Corsica has the Flyers humming along at 24th in the league in adjusted xGF% (18th xGF/60; 21st xGA/60)......21st in adjusted CF%.

But on Natural Stat Trick, they're 9th in adjusted SCF%....11th HDCF%......16th in CF%. I'm not sure why Corsica's expected goals % is so harsh against them. Don't know what to make of the divide between NST's raw numbers and Corsica's algorithms. Because by the raw stats, they're doing exactly what it looks like by the eye: staying afloat in possession (having their good periods, having their bad), but doing well with the chances, in a complete turnaround from last year. You'd imagine their expected goal %s would actually prop them up given their chance generation, but it's in the complete opposite direction, where they're well behind actual mediocre teams. I'm at a loss.

But you're right. There's a positivity in the air with the results (not that there's anything wrong with that; it's been a fun ride so far), but what's opportunistic/fortunate and what's sustainable needs to be split into two, not that the Flyers organization likes to do so. Especially Hakstol loves buying into -- and continually attempting to re-find over the course of a season -- the unsustainability he perceives as good strategy (though the raw numbers don't show he's entirely wrong).

 

[Rebels57]

Another factor that needs to be considered when looking at these stats over a small sample size is the schedule. It hasnt been a cake walk.

 

[BernieParent]

I misread Hjalmarsson as Lidstrom at first and thought I was gonna need a change of pants at the thought.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

At the same time we are going to have stretches where the puck just go in. Even when they are getting chances. Of course then we will get the we suck, fire and trade everyone crowd

 

[FLYguy3911]

1) Nope. I also don't think Sanheim/Morin are that difference either. I'm all for long-term thinking, but again, it isn't the worst thing ever if they weren't in the top 6 by the end of the year. It's really not.

It's a missed development opportunity. If the minutes were going to another young guy, or someone under team control it would be one thing, but right now valuable minutes are going to a guy that isn't very good and isn't a part of the future. To your 1st point, Sanheim and Manning have played 3 games a piece with Gudas. Sanheim has the best relCF% on the blueline and Manning has the worst. They probably could have won the last 2 games with current day Pavel Kubina, but over the long haul, when things start to normalize, poor lineup decisions will cost this team points in the standings.

2) Didn't say it was a fact, but sure. Can you personally name someone who you went "Ah, they would've been so good if they had just been brought up earlier"

I know many cases of players where they were brought up before ready and had careers ruined (generally-accepted opinion). Not saying that'll happen with these two of course, though. Point is: the world isn't ending if these two aren't starting by end of the season. I get the Manning/McD hate = Manning sucks and McD is barely an NHL defensemen. Can't wait for them to be gone...BUT, we're playing terrific hockey. If Sanheim's in, awesome. If not, NBD to me. Just my opinion, you don't have to share it of course.

Alright, who's up next with the "Man, this guy is stupid" reply? Puttem uppp puttem upppppp

The point is you can't prove it either way. It's convenient to say when a guy flops that "he was brought up too early!" At the same time when guys like Hagg and Laughton show some level of success at the NHL level, it isn't necessarily because they played in the AHL until they were 22.

Another factor that needs to be considered when looking at these stats over a small sample size is the schedule. It hasnt been a cake walk.

They have been pretty lucky with opposition injuries.

 

[deadhead]

I'd say in the case of Hagg and Laughton, it's definitely because they were in the AHL last year, working on the skills and style of play that would make them succssful in the NHL.

People have to stop obsessing over Manning playing a few games while they teach Sanheim, once Sanheim starts playing on a regular basis, Manning will be glued to the bench barring injuries.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

It's still early where stats are a muddle, but Corsica has the Flyers humming along at 24th in the league in adjusted xGF% (18th xGF/60; 21st xGA/60)......21st in adjusted CF%.

But on Natural Stat Trick, they're 9th in adjusted SCF%....11th HDCF%......16th in CF%. I'm not sure why Corsica's expected goals % is so harsh against them. Don't know what to make of the divide between NST's raw numbers and Corsica's algorithms. Because by the raw stats, they're doing exactly what it looks like by the eye: staying afloat in possession (having their good periods, having their bad), but doing well with the chances, in a complete turnaround from last year. You'd imagine their expected goal %s would actually prop them up given their chance generation, but it's in the complete opposite direction, where they're well behind actual mediocre teams. I'm at a loss.

But you're right. There's a positivity in the air with the results (not that there's anything wrong with that; it's been a fun ride so far), but what's opportunistic/fortunate and what's sustainable needs to be split into two, not that the Flyers organization likes to do so. Especially Hakstol loves buying into -- and continually attempting to re-find over the course of a season -- the unsustainability he perceives as good strategy (though the raw numbers don't show he's entirely wrong).

I'm going off of memory, but I believe Manny's xGF bins HD/MD/LD shots into 3 set values and has a mechanism for assuring that the MD bin is close to the league average shooting percentage. I'm not sure what kind of effect that will have with such a small sample size and I don't know where the league average shooting percentage is right now relative to the norm.

Ignore all of this if I remembered incorrectly.

 

[eramosat]

Do you realize that if a goalie just lied down on the ice and took away the bottom, Couturier would never score? Guy cannot lift a puck off the ice.

he knows it...so he is employing massive directional change moves plus get-my-own-rebound tenacity.

at some point, maybe someone will take him aside and teach him a reliable raise-the-puck technique to use with his preferred stick. But Couts scored like mad in junior...so he knows the trade-offs. Definitely a weird situation.

 

[BernieParent]

I think that's the opposite of what you just said truthfully. You were justifying putting the rookies in because we weren't going to win (basically trying to say "Meh, we can't win, so who cares if we try the kids?" (I'm paraphrasing, but it's effectively the same thing, IMO).

But getting back to the core of the whole topic and all -- I'd be shocked if putting Sanheim in for Manning shattered chemistry (in agreement with many other posters here), but chemistry can be a funny, delicate thing sometimes. All I'm saying is: Whatever they're doing, keep doing it. As a fan, I like W's...what can I say!

You're right that a) nobody could say definitively that the Flyers have no chance to win it all, much less a playoff series, and b) front offices would take such a position in personnel choices. However, there is a wide and logical middle ground that Hextall has played out in his time here as GM: to be a successful team with a lengthy legitimate shot at one or more Cups, build methodically from within. If we are silly for having playoff aspirations 6 games into a season, how much more would Ron Hextall for basing personnel decisions on a 2-game winning streak 6 games into a season? that make sense for the present and long term.

As we saw in spades last season, momentum is fickle, and it is permissible to change your lucky underwear during a winning streak. And it is also permissible to make roster changes that make sense for the present and long term.

Brandon Manning has, charitably, been a non-factor in the outcomes of the past 2 games. I am trying to keep an open mind about Dave Hakstol's line-ups and the team, as a whole, has been very good. That being said, it would be not only indefensible (so to speak) but also contrary to the expressed approach to the prospects to leave Sanheim in the press box for multiple games.

 

[eramosat]

But, according to some on the main board, that's not "real hockey".

"Real hockey" is a 1-0 win. A defensive, grinding battle.

An 8-2 win isn't real, that's a game without defense. It only counts as half of a game.

All offense and no defense is an embarrassment. All defense and no offense is a noble struggle.

Just offer them a cheese GIF for their whine.

 

[BernieParent]

Just offer them a cheese GIF for their whine.

This is more in reply to Striiker's post than yours. Ever since the second year of my participation in organized hockey, at age 7, I have played goal. An 8-7 game may be a lot of fun, especially when the Flyers win, but there's a part of me that goes sour, either for a poor goaltending effort or someone getting left to dry.

(Disclaimer: Not actually a photo of me. I don't look this young and vibrant.)

 

[BackWithaVengeance]

I'm really extremely pumped at the way Laughts is playing. He is kicking serious ass shift after shift. I don't know if the numbers back that up, but he looks very good out there, like the guy the draft previews spoke about and then some.

How dare you ...

It's impossible to step into Bellemares footsteps.

You should know better.

 

[Appleyard]

It's still early where stats are a muddle, but Corsica has the Flyers humming along at 24th in the league in adjusted xGF% (18th xGF/60; 21st xGA/60)......21st in adjusted CF%.

But on Natural Stat Trick, they're 9th in adjusted SCF%....11th HDCF%......16th in CF%. I'm not sure why Corsica's expected goals % is so harsh against them. Don't know what to make of the divide between NST's raw numbers and Corsica's algorithms. Because by the raw stats, they're doing exactly what it looks like by the eye: staying afloat in possession (having their good periods, having their bad), but doing well with the chances, in a complete turnaround from last year. You'd imagine their expected goal %s would actually prop them up given their chance generation, but it's in the complete opposite direction, where they're well behind actual mediocre teams. I'm at a loss.

But you're right. There's a positivity in the air with the results (not that there's anything wrong with that; it's been a fun ride so far), but what's opportunistic/fortunate and what's sustainable needs to be split into two, not that the Flyers organization likes to do so. Especially Hakstol loves buying into -- and continually attempting to re-find over the course of a season -- the unsustainability he perceives as good strategy (though the raw numbers don't show he's entirely wrong).

I also feel like it is worth noting at such an early stage in the season that at 5v5 the Flyers have basically, on stats front:

Outplayed opponents: 1 game (Caps)
Slight but clear edge: 1 game (Kings)
Virtually level with opponents: 2 games (Ducks, Sharks)
Been outplayed: 2 games (Preds, Panthers)

They are 4-2-0 for 8 points... and in a totally fair world going off the 5v5 stats would probably be ~3-2-1 for 7 points or thereabouts.

Also worth noting that once special teams are considered the Preds and Panthers games are arguably the only ones where Flyers did not have better of the game... so in that regard, 6 games in, outplayed opponents overall in 4/6, have 4 wins.

 

[BernieParent]

I also feel like it is worth noting at such an early stage in the season that at 5v5 the Flyers have basically, on stats front:

Outplayed opponents: 1 game (Caps)
Slight but clear edge: 1 game (Kings)
Virtually level with opponents: 2 games (Ducks, Sharks)
Been outplayed: 2 games (Preds, Panthers)

They are 4-2-0 for 8 points... and in a totally fair world going off the 5v5 stats would probably be ~3-2-1 for 7 points or thereabouts.

Also worth noting that once special teams are considered the Preds and Panthers games are arguably the only ones where Flyers did not have better of the game... so in that regard, 6 games in, outplayed opponents overall in 4/6, have 4 wins.

This, in my uneducated opinion, points to a limitation of the stats. I missed the first period, where I guess the Panthers really piled up in the stats column, but the second was all Flyers and they more than held the fort in the third.

 

[Rebels57]

This, in my uneducated opinion, points to a limitation of the stats. I missed the first period, where I guess the Panthers really piled up in the stats column, but the second was all Flyers and they more than held the fort in the third.

Agree.

Flyers were much better in the 2nd and 3rd regardless of what metrics say.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

I sorta don't buy the Panthers outplaying us. It looked like us last year, just literally firing away from everywhere.

 

[Tripod]

Yeah I was shocked at their shot totals because there seemed to be not a lot of dangerous scoring chances.

on a different note, I know Elliot's SV% looks bad, but really it's because of 1 game....Nashville. And we all saw what happened there...hard to blame him for 6vs3 goal and then all the momentum Hak gave Nashville with his awful challenge.
The other 3 have been ok. >913, .914, .913. Not good. Not great. But not bad to where it hurts you....almost like a non-factor. And considering what he is being paid, that's fine. I still think he ends the year around .915.

Hopefully we take revenge on Nashville tonight....then don't become the bounceback the Oilers are looking for. Personally, I would make sure Manning IS NOT in the lineup for the Oilers as I think it gets them more pumped up to play us.

 

[TCTC]

This, in my uneducated opinion, points to a limitation of the stats. I missed the first period, where I guess the Panthers really piled up in the stats column, but the second was all Flyers and they more than held the fort in the third.

That's why I don't care much about these stats. I mean, after watching the game nobody can actually believe the Panthers outplayed us.

 

[BernieParent]

As a fun little follow-up to this game, Patrick's sweet pass is the reigning champ on TSN's play of the night.

http://1v1.tsn.ca/polls/733-wall-s-dunk-vs-patrick-s-pass