Speculation: 6 In 5 Thread 2017/18 (& Playoff Prediction)

[EpicGingy]

That projection has always looked off to me. How does their prediction give the Jets 99 points when they're on pace for 112? There's some funky weighting going on there.

 

[Aavco Cup]

That projection has always looked off to me. How does their prediction give the Jets 99 points when they're on pace for 112? There's some funky weighting going on there.

That projection is using each team's combined expected game score based on past performance in the last three seasons (weighted) It also takes into account home vs road and rested vs tired. The game score that projection is using for the Jets is currently lower than the other teams ahead of them.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Which would be sucking for the rest of the season, no?

Sucking is relative at this point.

 

[Neuf]

This projection now has us only the 4th best team in the central

Chicago is not finishing ahead of Winnipeg.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Chicago is not finishing ahead of Winnipeg.

I hope you're right but........They're only 6pts behind with a game in hand.

 

[Aavco Cup]

 

[Aavco Cup]

So we pass the 25 game mark at 34 points. We are 4 points ahead of the 6 in 5 line. Things are still looking good.

 

[Neuf]

Game 25

Last 5 Games	7 pts​
Avg 5 Games	6.8 pts​
CML PPG	1.36​
Point %	0.680​
Win %	0.600​
Total Points	34​
Pace / 82 Games	111​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Aavco Cup]

 

[Aavco Cup]

 

[Neuf]

Game 26

Points Last 5 Games	7​
Avg Points / 5 Games	6.9​
Points Above 6 in 5	+4.8​
Point %	0.692​
Win %	0.615​
Total Points	36​
Pace / 82 Games	113​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Calendal]

Game 26

Points Last 5 Games	7​
Avg Points / 5 Games	6.9​
Points Above 6 in 5	+4.8​
Point %	0.692​
Win %	0.615​
Total Points	36​
Pace / 82 Games	113​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Feel like win % doesn’t belong in the table. Awesome work though.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Athletic projects us over 100 pts now and ahead of the Blues

 

[Aavco Cup]

Current west playoff matchups.

Winnipeg - Vancouver
St. Louis - Nashville

LA - Dallas
Vegas - San Jose

Could I actually be buying Canucks playoff tickets in April? Would be fun times.

(Long way to go though)

 

[Weezeric]

Current west playoff matchups.

Winnipeg - Vancouver
St. Louis - Nashville

LA - Dallas
Vegas - San Jose

Could I actually be buying Canucks playoff tickets in April? Would be fun times.

(Long way to go though)

After the narrative about the Canadian teams over the summer, it would bring me great pleasure to see Winnipeg-Vancouver in the first round while Calgary and Edmonton are golfing.

 

[Neuf]

Game 27

Points Last 5 Games	7​
Avg Points / 5 Games	7.0​
Points Above 6 in 5	+5.6​
Point %	0.704​
Win %	0.630​
Total Points	38​
Pace / 82 Games	115​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Whileee]

McCurdy has the Jets up to 86% probability for the playoffs (top in the Western Conference). Interestingly, the points projection is 97.3, and the Jets would reach 96+ points if they just maintain the same points per game that they achieved last season (about 1.06) for the remainder of this season.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Up to 91% and over 101 points now in this projection

 

[Gm0ney]

Interesting power ranking:

More here:

 

[Whileee]

Interesting power ranking:

More here:

They must be using models that put huge weight on shot metrics.

 

[Neuf]

Game 28

Points Last 5 Games	7​
Avg Points / 5 Games	6.8​
Points Above 6 in 5	+4.4​
Point %	0.679​
Win %	0.607​
Total Points	38​
Pace / 82 Games	111​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Evil Little]

Game 28

Points Last 5 Games	7​
Avg Points / 5 Games	6.8​
Points Above 6 in 5	+4.4​
Point %	0.679​
Win %	0.607​
Total Points	38​
Pace / 82 Games	111​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Looks good, thanks!

Minor quibble:

'Avg Pts/ 5 Games' and 'Pts %' are the same thing with the decimal in a different place.

Save yourself the work, man!

 

[Neuf]

Looks good, thanks!

Minor quibble:

'Avg Pts/ 5 Games' and 'Pts %' are the same thing with the decimal in a different place.

Save yourself the work, man!

Haha I wasn't sure which one people preferred. I think I'll keep the average points per five given the name of the thread and lose the %

 

[Neuf]

Game 29

Points Last 5 Games	5​
Avg Points / 5 Games	6.6​
Points Above 6 in 5	+3.2​
Total Points	38​
Pace / 82 Games	107​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Neuf]

Game 30 / TBL / OTL

Points Last 5 Games	5​
Avg Points / 5 Games	6.5​
Points Above 6 in 5	+3.0​
Total Points	39​
Pace / 82 Games	106​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]