How is Nashville favoured to win the division and have a higher probability of making the playoffs when we have a better record?
That just because tof the jets loss to them last week?
Does not compute to Johnny 5
The Jets have a lower base expected win% in his model. From what I can tell he is basing that xwin% entirely on combined game score
From the FAQ on how the model works
Frequently Asked Questions
How does all this work?
Basically, I rate every team by their expected win percentage based on a model’s projections and feed that info into an Excel spreadsheet that has the entire 2017-18 schedule. I estimate the chances of each team winning each game while also accounting for which team is at home and how much rest both teams have had. I then add that all together to get standings for the season, as well as who made the playoffs and eventually who won the Stanley Cup. From there, I use some code to repeat that process 50,000 more times to figure out an average simulated season.
What goes into those projections?
The projections are entirely at the player level and are based on an all-in-one stat I created a little over a year ago called
Game Score. It combines all the basic box score stats into one number to measure a player’s value. As one season isn’t really enough to get a good read on a player, I use the last three seasons instead. The seasons were weighted by recency using a multi-variate regression and the results of that are regressed to the mean based on the repeatability of each component and the size of each player’s sample. There’s also an age adjustment as we expect players to get better as they move towards their prime and worse as they move away from it. Lastly, there’s a small adjustment for
usage.
