Speculation: 6 In 5 Thread 2017/18 (& Playoff Prediction)

[Aavco Cup]

Inching ever so close. Even going 2-10 Sports Club has us at a 90% of the playoffs. 4-8 puts us at 100%.

96 points has only missed the playoffs one time
98 points is the 6 in 5 line

 

[Neuf]

Game 70 / NSH / L

Points Last 5 Games	5​
Avg Points / 5 Games	6.6​
Points Above 6 in 5	+8.0​
Total Points	92​
Pace / 82 Games	107​
Record Last 5 Games	2-2-1​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Neuf]

Game 71 / CHI / W

Points Last 5 Games	5​
Avg Points / 5 Games	6.6​
Points Above 6 in 5	+8.8​
Total Points	94​
Pace / 82 Games	108​
Record Last 5 Games	2-2-1​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[YWGinYYZ]

We're getting incredibly close to clinching a spot.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Now 58% chance if we go 0-11-0
83% if we get 1 point
94% at 96 points
100% at 98 points

 

[PhilJets]

11 games left

Jets go 7-2-2 for another 16 points out of 22 points

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Sooo close.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Sooo close.

View attachment 105703

This win really helped in the magic number math. -4.

 

[Aavco Cup]

92%..........one more point and we reach 100%

 

[King Woodballs]

This is probably my most favouritest thread of all time!

 

[Neuf]

Game 72 / DAL / W

Points Last 5 Games	5​
Avg Points / 5 Games	6.7​
Points Above 6 in 5	+9.6​
Total Points	96​
Pace / 82 Games	109​
Record Last 5 Games	2-2-1​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

3 more points to clinch the 6 in 5 line

 

[razorsedge]

Tick Tock, update this thread please. My well being revolves around it. Thanks.

 

[Aavco Cup]

98 points is the 6 in 5 line for the full season.

We have accomplished that feat with 9 games remaining

 

[KingBogo]

Sports Club has us at 99.99997% chance of making the playoffs. I'm liking those odds.

 

[Aavco Cup]

100% here

 

[CorgisPer60]

Basically one more win will all but guarantee us a spot.

 

[King Woodballs]

98 points is the 6 in 5 line for the full season.

We have accomplished that feat with 9 games remaining

So you’re saying there is a chance they still make the playoffs?

 

[puck stoppa]

I miss the tank thread

 

[King Woodballs]

I just want to put a shout out to Aavco, YWGinYYZ and everyone else that has contributed the info to this thread.

Great job fellas!

 

[ERYX]

100% here

Well ~100% is not actually 100% ... as others noted it’s about 99.99%. A distinction without a difference I suppose but there’s still an extremely remote chance if we lose every game remaining and those below us win out that we could in theory miss the playoffs.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Well ~100% is not actually 100% ... as others noted it’s about 99.99%. A distinction without a difference I suppose but there’s still an extremely remote chance if we lose every game remaining and those below us win out that we could in theory miss the playoffs.

How do you know that is what his model shows? I think you are wrong about this

2 days ago prior to the win vs the Kings he had us at 99.999% after the win last night we are now 100%

Here's the same chart before the game last night

West Playoff Chances entering 2018-03-20

 

[ERYX]

How do you know that is what his model shows? I think you are wrong about this

2 days ago prior to the win vs the Kings he had us at 99.999% after the win last night we are now 100%

Here's the same chart before the game last night

West Playoff Chances entering 2018-03-20

Interesting ... I don't know why he differentiates 100% from ~100% then, if he will note to three decimal points (i.e. the 99.999%). Also, none of nhl.com or tsn.com etc. have the magical x next to the Jets to denote clinched playoff, so there must be some mathematical formula out there that says we're not 100% yet? Maybe the ~100% means according to McCurdy's formula we're 100% but not others? Whereas straight-up 100% means that others agree. Just seems odd he'd make that differentiation unless ~100 means something different than 100 simpliciter.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Interesting ... I don't know why he differentiates 100% from ~100% then, if he will note to three decimal points (i.e. the 99.999%). Also, none of nhl.com or tsn.com etc. have the magical x next to the Jets to denote clinched playoff, so there must be some mathematical formula out there that says we're not 100% yet? Maybe the ~100% means according to McCurdy's formula we're 100% but not others? Whereas straight-up 100% means that others agree. Just seems odd he'd make that differentiation unless ~100 means something different than 100 simpliciter.

His model is obviously somewhere above 99.999%.

Of course there is still an extremely small chance that it could happen.

My only point in posting it was in comparison to the sports club model and the fact that after our win was the first time we achieved 100% in his model

 

[ERYX]

Either way we're in unless something completely unprecedented happens

 

[boanst]

How do you know that is what his model shows? I think you are wrong about this

2 days ago prior to the win vs the Kings he had us at 99.999% after the win last night we are now 100%

Here's the same chart before the game last night

West Playoff Chances entering 2018-03-20

I think he is right. Look at the bottom dwellers. It lists teams as OUT, and also puts Edm at ~0%.

If he is differentiating Edm from the rest using a ~, then he must be doing the same with us and Vegas.