2024 NHL Draft Thread/Tankathon thread (Lottery Set for May 7th)

[WannabeFinn]

Right now I'm just curious to see if we keep the early 2nd in this draft or not. Still have a GM vacancy and we have to make the decision to defer or not by the end of round 1 of the playoffs

 

[Indy18]

Calgary currently has #8 and #29, and might want to move up to get Tij Iginla. Or someone else.

Calgary is 100% going to be the spanner in the works this year. Based on how 1-4 goes Calgary might be willing to jump just to make sure to try to get Iginia so just food for thought if we drop back a spot or two as its very likely. Just watch this be the year Calgary will win the lottery for maximum trolling.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Right now I'm just curious to see if we keep the early 2nd in this draft or not. Still have a GM vacancy and we have to make the decision to defer or not by the end of round 1 of the playoffs

I’m willing to bet we keep the pick.

 

[Long Live Lyle]

If anyone was battling internal dilemma, feel free to cheer the rest of the year without worry: when our game and the Habs game ends within the next 5 minutes, we’ll be 100% locked into 4th-worst.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

And with the CBJ regulation loss and Montreal win, we have clinched the 4th best lottery odds

 

[majormajor]

I don't disagree to the larger point, but none of those small wings listed will stand in Demidov's way in the least. If he's there at fourth, you take him (assuming you're not very concerned about politics of getting a young Russian prospect out, etc). Catton has a higher floor, but a lower ceiling.

Agreed about Demidov, except I think he has a higher floor than Catton. Just a much more solid player, he can do it all.

And Demidov might be a center. Russia doesn't have the same ideas about center vs wing. They tend to prefer the best offensive players to be on the wing, even if they have the qualities that would make them ideal centers in the NA context.

If we look at the worst teams, this is what I think they would love to come away with:

San Jose - need everything
Chicago - need everything
Ducks - right D
Jackets - center
Montreal - puck moving wing
Sens - someone who would be happy in Ottawa
Canes - Iginla
Buffalo - right D

so:

San Jose - Celebrini
Chicago - Demidov
Ducks - Levshunov
Jackets - Lindstrom
Montreal - trade back or Dickinson (could fit really well with Reinbacher)
Sens - Eiserman (he could be a good fit in Ottawa)
Canes - Iginla
Buffalo - lots of right D to choose from

I am not opposed to trading back.

I agree on the top 4. I think you might have some wrong teams after that.

It could be Lev, but I legit think the Ducks might take Yakemchuk at #3.

For the Jackets I think we have a very balanced pool of young players at all positions. We're not more desperate for centers than most of those clubs. Lindstrom as a power forward is an evergreen type of need though. You could use him whether he's a center or not.

he's an interesting one. i'm wary of any player who has that much of a size advantage at the junior level, but the NCAA dev path + his high skill level are interesting.

i don't think he'll be there in the second, but this feels like a prime year for the jackets to try trading back up into the first round. here are some guys i like either in the early second or via trade-up back into the first

1. michael hage – wouldn't be shocked if he goes in the top half of the first round. checks a lot of boxes you want in a top six forward and seems like a slam dunk to stick at center
2. nikita artamonov – i really like this kid, seems to have high-upside and plays with a high compete level
3. jett luchanko – really speedy center out of the OHL. also has a really high hockey IQ, seems like a good bet to become an NHL player imo
4. sacha boisvert – tall/skinny forward going the NCAA route. could see him turning into a good power forward with a heavy shot, whether that's at center or wing
5. yegor surin – skilled + good skating + agitator. what's not to like?
6. ej emery – raw but super athletic defenseman going to north dakota, could be a really solid player with the right development

I'm also a big Surin fan.

Regarding Letourneau, a 6'6 player doesn't just have a huge size advantage at the junior level, they'll have that advantage in every league. The players who have a size advantage concern are the very physical 6'0-6'1 kids, because they go from bigger to average or slightly below average size.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

And with the CBJ regulation loss and Montreal win, we have clinched the 4th best lottery odds

I didnt believe it was possible to be this bad again after being buyers in the summer. Absolutely disgusting

 

[Xoggz22]

Right now I'm just curious to see if we keep the early 2nd in this draft or not. Still have a GM vacancy and we have to make the decision to defer or not by the end of round 1 of the playoffs

The draft lottery is during the first round so we'll have a lot of draft clarity at that time. I'm fairly confident they'll defer to next year with the 2nd to Philly

 

[WannabeFinn]

Picking anywhere in the top 6 but 3… spooky

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[JacketFanInFL]

We will be picking 6th.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Why is there 0% chance they draft 3 rd ? You finish 4th worst and only have a 35% chance or drafting 1st thru 4th , and a 65% chance of drafting 5th or 6th ? That’s almost as idiotic as the current playoff seeding , and getting rid of 1vs 8 , and so on .. The nhl needs better leadership

 

[Indy18]

Why is there 0% chance they draft 3 rd ? You finish 4th worst and only have a 35% chance or drafting 1st thru 4th , and a 65% chance of drafting 5th or 6th ? That’s almost as idiotic as the current playoff seeding , and getting rid of 1vs 8 , and so on .. The nhl needs better leadership

You can only jump 10 spots therefore only 1-11 are in the Celebrini sweepstakes and also that's why its called a lottery to prevent tanking so its possible 2 teams jump us. All teams who are not in the playoffs are put into the pot. I just did a lotto pull just because this caught my attention and look at that!

 

[CBJx614]

Why is there 0% chance they draft 3 rd ? You finish 4th worst and only have a 35% chance or drafting 1st thru 4th , and a 65% chance of drafting 5th or 6th ? That’s almost as idiotic as the current playoff seeding , and getting rid of 1vs 8 , and so on .. The nhl needs better leadership

That's the point, it's to prevent tanking.

 

[squashmaple]

Why is there 0% chance they draft 3 rd ? You finish 4th worst and only have a 35% chance or drafting 1st thru 4th , and a 65% chance of drafting 5th or 6th ? That’s almost as idiotic as the current playoff seeding , and getting rid of 1vs 8 , and so on .. The nhl needs better leadership

There are two lottery spots, for first and second. Columbus is locked into fourth worst record. It is literally impossible for them to have the third pick. The possible outcomes are: they could win one of the two lottery spots for first or second and move up, they could stay at fourth because the two lottery spots went to the three teams worse, or they could move down to fifth or sixth if the two lottery spots both went to teams with better records. There are no longer three lottery slots, and that has not been the set up since 2021. As for the percentages, you're just showing you don't understand math. And that's okay! You don't need to.

 

[Xoggz22]

Why is there 0% chance they draft 3 rd ? You finish 4th worst and only have a 35% chance or drafting 1st thru 4th , and a 65% chance of drafting 5th or 6th ? That’s almost as idiotic as the current playoff seeding , and getting rid of 1vs 8 , and so on .. The nhl needs better leadership

You can't move up one spot. it's 1,2,4,5 or 6.

 

[koteka]

What happens if team #12 wins the lottery (moves up 10 spots) and we get the 2nd pick in the lottery?

 

[squashmaple]

What happens if team #12 wins the lottery (moves up 10 spots) and we get the 2nd pick in the lottery?

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds Explains it pretty well:

The 1st overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls. A team can only jump ten spots, so only the top 11 teams are eligible for the 1st pick. If a team in the 12-16 range wins the first drawing, the first pick will be awarded to the worst team. The 12-16 seed team that won the first drawing is also locked into their new position.

A second drawing is held to determine the other lottery winner. Like the first drawing, the second winner can only jump ten spots, but this time it is using the re-seeded order following the first drawing. This second drawing will not affect the team(s) with locked-in positions from the first drawing. If a ten spot jump is to a pick that is already locked-in, this team will receive the next available pick.

 

[majormajor]

What happens if team #12 wins the lottery (moves up 10 spots) and we get the 2nd pick in the lottery?

Good catch. Sounds like we would get pick #3.

So it is possible that the Jackets get pick #3. The tankathon odds put that scenario unfolding at .3% probability.

 

[squashmaple]

I know we're not looking at Iginla, but man, if we're fifth or sixth, I can't help but think he should get a long look. Someone posted this tweet on the Habs board and this sort of dogged tenacity with the puck would be incredible to have:

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I know we're not looking at Iginla, but man, if we're fifth or sixth, I can't help but think he should get a long look. Someone posted this tweet on the Habs board and this sort of dogged tenacity with the puck would be incredible to have:

You never know how a guy's going to translate playing against men, but the balance, hips, core, shoulders he displays in these clips is enticing, especially given our lack of presence in those areas.

 

[koteka]

I know we're not looking at Iginla, but man, if we're fifth or sixth, I can't help but think he should get a long look. Someone posted this tweet on the Habs board and this sort of dogged tenacity with the puck would be incredible to have:

He is the one wing that if we trade back a few spots and he is available, I wouldn’t complain too much. Like if we are drafting 4 or 5 and Lindstrom goes 3, and the Sens want to move up.

 

[Indy18]

I know we're not looking at Iginla, but man, if we're fifth or sixth, I can't help but think he should get a long look. Someone posted this tweet on the Habs board and this sort of dogged tenacity with the puck would be incredible to have:

I am about to jump on the Iginla train if Lindstrom is gone at 6 (which he most likely will be). Still the question is if we choose 6, Iginla is available and Calgary comes calling what is the blood cost to swap picks?

 

[ViD]

Well, kudos to @EspenK and @614 CBJ

Not many of us believed we would be so bad again to pick in the top 4 which I think we will

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Right now I'm just curious to see if we keep the early 2nd in this draft or not. Still have a GM vacancy and we have to make the decision to defer or not by the end of round 1 of the playoffs

imo they have nothing to gain by punting the pick to next year, unless they think this is a really weak draft and only have first round grades on a handful of guys.

the highest a second round pick can be is 33rd. this year's pick is set to be 36th. if they have ~25 guys graded as first rounders, it's almost certain that at least one will still be there at 36 given how much draft boards diverge team-by-team after the first dozen picks.

I am about to jump on the Iginla train if Lindstrom is gone at 6 (which he most likely will be). Still the question is if we choose 6, Iginla is available and Calgary comes calling what is the blood cost to swap picks?

i was going to say their 2024 + 2025 firsts, but that calgary 2025 first has the most insane set of conditions i've ever seen on a single pick.

assuming CBJ is at 6 and CGY is at 10… to me there's a clear #1 (celebrini) and a clear #2 (demidov) but the next 10-11 guys are pretty tightly bunched together.

still, even if CBJ has similar grades on their 3rd-10th rated players, the ask to move back should still be significant. the only packages i'd really entertain are:

1. 10oa + sharangovic
2. 10oa + vancouver's 1st + honzek

and even then i don't think i'd take the second one, because late firsts don't move the needle for me and honzek wasn't even a PPG+ player in the WHL this year as a D+1 first rounder. but if they can get a prospect with the same grade at 10oa and add sharangovich? i'd do that.

there's an even bolder move here, which would be something like 6oa + a prospect for 10oa + weegar, then flipping jiricek for a top-line center, but that's too many moving parts for the NHL and i doubt a new GM would be that bold.