KJ Dangler
Registered User
That’s nonsense . In life you make your luck .. Are you trying to say the process is fixed ?
2024 NHL Draft Thread (CBJ to pick 4th)
- Thread starter tunnelvision
- Start date
Ice9
Registered User
CBJ (fans) deserve a little mojo despite the organizations inability to get out of its own way.
You can work hard to pay for tickets hoping to win the lottery, but you could play for 100 years and never win once...
I don't know if you're being facetious or not, but the lottery is literally just that. A lottery...
KJ Dangler
Registered User
And scientifically , there is nothing that applies , that says Columbus can never have nice things , why bother looking at things optimistically ?
Viqsi
"that chick from Ohio"
Okay, the next time we run a genetic linkage analysis here at work I'll make sure to bring that up in the future. "Yeah, sure there's no signal we can see on any chromosomes for this construct phenotype after trying literally millions upon millions of different permutations of possibilities, but have you considered the possibility that in life you make your own luck, and so some extra hard work on the part of our study cohort could somehow make a signal appear so we can get our grant renewed?"* * *
Because certain folks here have an established history of grossly overestimating the likelihood of favorable outcomes and then when the most probable outcome (no lottery win) DOES occur they persist in whining about it to us all as though this was somehow some sort of unprecedented, unpredictable shock that we all need to comfort ourselves over. It's the stupidest of unforced errors.
If you're going to pick things to be optimistic about, at least look for outcomes that are probable.
KJ Dangler
Registered User
All that to basically say because we are Columbus , statistics don’t apply , we are destined for the worst outcome , don’t bother getting hopes up ? Sounds reasonable …
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Because certain folks here have an established history of grossly overestimating the likelihood of favorable outcomes and then when the most probable outcome (no lottery win) DOES occur they persist in whining about it to us all as though this was somehow some sort of unprecedented, unpredictable shock that we all need to comfort ourselves over. It's the stupidest of unforced errors.
If you're going to pick things to be optimistic about, at least look for outcomes that are probable.
Cowumbus
Registered User
We got Fantilli last year. That wasn’t probable!
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Because certain folks here have an established history of grossly overestimating the likelihood of favorable outcomes and then when the most probable outcome (no lottery win) DOES occur they persist in whining about it to us all as though this was somehow some sort of unprecedented, unpredictable shock that we all need to comfort ourselves over. It's the stupidest of unforced errors.
If you're going to pick things to be optimistic about, at least look for outcomes that are probable.
Viqsi
"that chick from Ohio"
Your logical fallacy is strawman
You misrepresented someone's argument to make it easier to attack.
yourlogicalfallacyis.com
We have a less than 1 in 10 chance of winning the lottery and a nearly 1 in 2 chance of moving down. The reasons for "not getting hopes up" are exactly because statistics apply.
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That also had nothing to do with the draft lottery.We got Fantilli last year. That wasn’t probable!
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Because certain folks here have an established history of grossly overestimating the likelihood of favorable outcomes and then when the most probable outcome (no lottery win) DOES occur they persist in whining about it to us all as though this was somehow some sort of unprecedented, unpredictable shock that we all need to comfort ourselves over. It's the stupidest of unforced errors.
If you're going to pick things to be optimistic about, at least look for outcomes that are probable.
We have a 9.5% chance of winning the Celebrini pick. That's all that needs to be said about it. Our odds don't change because of what happened in previous lotteries, you've made that point yourself many times but you won't take your own advice.
I mean if we had millions upon millions of lottery losses, then sure I'd change my beliefs, but that hasn't happened.
The Fantilli win though should put to bed this nonsense about us not being able to get nice things. He's better than plenty of #1OA picks, maybe better than Celebrini, though that's a tough call.
Viqsi
"that chick from Ohio"
9.5% is not exactly worth "getting one's hopes up". Especially not to the degree that so many folks here do.
Viqsi
"that chick from Ohio"
And that is why the draft itself is still worthwhile. Leaning on hopes with the lottery is nonetheless absurd.
Policing other's modest hopes is nonetheless absurd.
Viqsi
"that chick from Ohio"
It's a probably futile attempt to fend off the inevitable weeks of griping and whining about how We Should Have Tanked More that will make up the entirety of discussion in May and much of the rest of the offseason. That and hamfisted attempts to somehow try and trade up despite that being even less probable.
@coooldude put together this chart showing the distribution of votes in Mckenzie's poll, with some guesswork in the 6-10 range.
I'm going through a mock draft based on it right now and I noticed that if Anaheim picks Levshunov at #2, then our most likely pick at #4 is Anton Silayev. And don't forget that Silayev said Columbus and Utah were the teams that showed the most interest.
The next most likely pick is Cayden Lindstrom. Obviously if you know my posts, you'd know I would much rather have Lindstrom.
I'm going through a mock draft based on it right now and I noticed that if Anaheim picks Levshunov at #2, then our most likely pick at #4 is Anton Silayev. And don't forget that Silayev said Columbus and Utah were the teams that showed the most interest.
The next most likely pick is Cayden Lindstrom. Obviously if you know my posts, you'd know I would much rather have Lindstrom.
I think savior syndrome has mostly passed from our fanbase since we drafted Fantilli and then had a humbling year, where we realize how difficult it is going to be to teach these kids to win, and we realize that it's not just a question of talent. Not a lot of hardcore tankers left here.
Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
I can’t decide if it would be so Jackets to win the lottery in a year when the top overall pick is a little bit down or if the clear-cut top player means it would be so unlike the Jackets to win it.
KJ Dangler
Registered User
9.5 is the top pick.. JD would run to the podium if we land #2 and get to draft Demidov
Don't even want the #1 pick, just give me the #2. Makes for more interesting build up to the draft 
Ice9
Registered User
Maybe the league will feel bad because of last years hiccup and give the #1 to CBJ. You know, slip a few more balls into the gizmo...
koteka
Registered User
Mostly the eye test. Don’t know that I have ever seen Provorov hit someone and think, “Wow, nice hit.” I have seen that from Andersson (and I don’t mean the cheap hit on Laine). Andersson is a guy I have picked up when I need another defenseman in fantasy hockey the last few seasons so I tend to watch him if Calgary is playing. I really liked that Calgary defense 3 years ago (with Gudbranson).
If you want an objective measure of “toughness” I sometimes check Hockey Fights to see if a guy is willing to fight occasionally (or never or all the time):
Earlier in his career Provorov used to lay people out. He also used to dangle through the other team and score highlight reel goals, not sure where that went. Needing to fight after a clean hit or something to appear tough though is stupid.Mostly the eye test. Don’t know that I have ever seen Provorov hit someone and think, “Wow, nice hit.” I have seen that from Andersson (and I don’t mean the cheap hit on Laine). Andersson is a guy I have picked up when I need another defenseman in fantasy hockey the last few seasons so I tend to watch him if Calgary is playing. I really liked that Calgary defense 3 years ago (with Gudbranson).
If you want an objective measure of “toughness” I sometimes check Hockey Fights to see if a guy is willing to fight occasionally (or never or all the time):
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I have previously wondered about the state of Columbus' Russian scouting department, due to them not drafting any Russians whatsoever for the first time in around a decade last year. If nothing else, those Silayev comments suggest to me that those concerns were unfounded.
Disclaimer: I haven't watched a lot of Andersson so it's hard for me to compare the two.Mostly the eye test. Don’t know that I have ever seen Provorov hit someone and think, “Wow, nice hit.” I have seen that from Andersson (and I don’t mean the cheap hit on Laine). Andersson is a guy I have picked up when I need another defenseman in fantasy hockey the last few seasons so I tend to watch him if Calgary is playing. I really liked that Calgary defense 3 years ago (with Gudbranson).
If you want an objective measure of “toughness” I sometimes check Hockey Fights to see if a guy is willing to fight occasionally (or never or all the time):
But from what I saw of Provorov all season (and factoring in his early career as highlighted by @stevo61) I lean towards Provorov still being "tough" but maybe we're seeing a bit more matured and measured approach to his game. Almost like he knows what hits are worth throwing and what should be avoided. He did play in all 82 games - which was more than any of the other d-men.
