2023 Bob Cole Division Final: Guelph Platers vs Peterborough Petes

[Theokritos]

Guelph Platers (@BraveCanadian & @TheDevilMadeMe)

Coaches: Anatoli Tarasov & Arkady Chernyshev

Vladimir Krutov - Wayne Gretzky (C) - Boris Mikhailov (A)
Brad Marchand - Peter Stastny - Mickey MacKay
Sergei Kapustin - Darryl Sittler (A) - Daniel Alfredsson
Doug Mohns - Nicklas Backstrom - Blake Wheeler

Duncan Keith - Pierre Pilote
Carl Brewer - Fern Flaman
Sergei Gonchar- Red Dutton

Jacques Plante
Henrik Lundqvist

Spares: Shane Doan (RW/LW), (Mickey MacKay, C), Doug Mohns (D)

Power Play 1:
Vladimir Krutov - Wayne Gretzky - Boris Mikhailov - Sergei Gonchar - Pierre Pilote

Power Play 2:
Brad Marchand - Peter Stastny - Darryl Sittler - Daniel Alfredsson - Duncan Keith

Penalty Kill 1:
Mickey MacKay - Brad Marchand - Duncan Keith - Fern Flaman

Penalty Kill 2:
Wayne Gretzky - Vladimir Krutov/Boris Mikhailov - Carl Brewer - Red Dutton

Penalty Kill spare:
Nicklas Backstrom - Daniel Alfredsson, Doug Mohns

Original roster post: ATD 2023 Roster Thread


Peterborough Petes (@Claude The Fraud)

Coach: Lester Patrick

#55 Baldy Northcott - #7 Frank Boucher - #22 Mike Bossy
#16 Cy Denneny - #17 Marty Barry - #10 Vladimir Martinec
#20 Jiri Holik - #19 Rod Brind’Amour (A) - #33 Tony Amonte
#27 John Tonelli - #18 Walt Tkaczuk - #11 Bob Nevin

#77 Ray Bourque (C) - #6 Alexei Kasatonov
#5 Ebbie Goodfellow (A) - #2 Jimmy Thomson
#23 Mike Ramsey - #3 «Bullet» Joe Simpson

#29 Ken Dryden
#32 Jonathan Quick

Spares: #61 Pat Lafontaine - #14 Brian Sutter; #96 Phil Housley

Power Play 1:
Denneny(net)
Boucher-Bossy
Goodfellow-Bourque

Power Play 2:
Brind'Amour(net)
Barry-Martinec
Simpson-Kasatonov

Penalty Kill 1:
Brind'Amour-Nevin
Ramsey-Bourque

Penalty Kill 2:
Boucher-Martinec
Goodfellow-Thomson/Kasatonov

Original roster post: ATD 2023 Roster Thread

Click to read more...

 

[BraveCanadian]

Looking forward to seeing what happens in this one. At first glance I think Guelph has a significant advantage up front with Gretzky, our depth, and our team building cohesion. Bossy is a real wildcard for the Petes as one of the best playoff goalscorers of all time too.

Bourque is obviously the best defenseman in the series, but I like the picks that we made in our team concept. We tried to emphasize mobility and puck movement with a dash of hard hitting grit to make sure we aren't taken advantage of physically.

Great goaltending on both sides with a slight advantage to Guelph.

Both coaches are innovators and builders so I'm not sure how to rank them against one another, but I do know we built our team front to back specifically to take advantage of our center strength (Gretzky in particular, obviously) playing a more Soviet style possession/creative game so I know our fit is good for Tarasov and Chernyshev.

 

[VanIslander]

Dryden a top-3 star in the series nonetheless.

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

The Plante-Dryden matchup has been seen before.

I had thoughts...

Jacques Plante over Ken Dryden-
an advantage... but HOW MUCH OF ONE?Jacques Plante is a superior Goaltender to Ken Dryden. Freely conceded- nothing controversial there. I decided to pursue the interesting project of comparing PRIME Jacques Plante to PRIME Ken Dryden, though, just to see where the numbers led...

First, I had to decide the span-of-time suitable for analysis. Ken Dryden is a rara avis for the fact that his career IS his Prime. I took his seven full seasons (which excludes his zero to 60 in 3.8 seconds Stanley Cup of 1971), and compared to to Jacques Plante's finest 7-consecutive-year period-- the span from 1955-56 to 1962-63, a majestic run which included a Hart trophy, three modern-day Vezina-equivalents, and half-a-dozen Jennings equivalents.

Next, I had to set the calibration point for the comparison. Now, it would be fatuous to set the calibration point at league-average. In Plante's time, league-average Goaltending was something like Harry Lumley level. In Dryden's time, you get a spot somewhere around Eddie Johnston. I alighted on the idea "on-the-podium." Plante's high-level competition for league-best-at-position was Glenn Hall, Johnny Bower, Gump Worsley. Dryden's similarly high-level competition for league-best was Tony Esposito, Billy Smith, Bernie Parent. Based on this, I was satisfied that SAVE PERCENTAGE VS. 3 would serve as a solid jumping-off point.

Run Plante's 55-56 to 62-63 seasons through that assessment and you get a result of .048. This means that for that 7-year span, Plante was stopping pucks at .048 higher than the 3rd-place finisher for Save Percentage. That rate is nearly a coin-flip to lead the league in any given year, and is awesome.

Run Dryden's 71-72 to 78-79 (Dryden missed 73-74 in an attempt to receive the compensation he was worth... while Montreal stubbornly thought they could reach the summit without him. Well.. that didn't work out so well for the Habs...) and you get .044. Plante gets the edge, but it is a 4 one-thousandths edge. 428 games for Plante, 391 games for Dryden, and at the end of the computation, you get a difference that can't be measured in tenths, not in hundredths, but in thousandths. The difference is less than ant's-eyelash territory.

[If you want to run the computation out to its conclusion and figure how much of a difference that is... if you take a 30 shots-per-game standard and calculate how much better four-one-thousandths is as a Save Percentage, it works out to one extra puck behind you every 67 games played.]

If the Montreal Maroons are looking for a difference-making advantage that will carry them to victory, they will have to cast their eyes on territory other than the Goaltending match-up. On this turf, they'll have next-to-nothing, and love it.

I make the Plante advantage to be a little more than one-tenth of a puck per seven-game series.

 

[VanIslander]

One reason the ATD playoffs has so few upsets is the lack of consideration for the stark DIFFERENCE of playoff hockey from the regular 8-month-long season.

Dryden > Plante in playoff hockey, and it isn't even an issue.

A Conn Smythe and two other finalist worthy cup playoffs versus one.

Waaay too much draft position, regular season, career length, historic ranking considerations and very little detail in playoff clutch play.

Tikhonov said the only thing the NHL had better than the Soviet Union was Ken Dryden (and Gretzky, but that was later). Bob Clarke said the only goalie he wished he had on his team was Dryden. Bowman said his team's success in the clutch was hinged on Lemaire and Dryden.

Playoff hockey on TV in the 1970s was like the invasion of Iraq on CNN: gripping must-see and much talked about.

 

[BraveCanadian]

One reason the ATD playoffs has so few upsets is the lack of consideration for the stark DIFFERENCE of playoff hockey from the regular 8-month-long season.

Dryden > Plante in playoff hockey, and it isn't even an issue.

A Conn Smythe and two other finalist worthy cup playoffs versus one.

Waaay too much draft position, regular season, career length, historic ranking considerations and very little detail in playoff clutch play.

Tikhonov said the only thing the NHL had better than the Soviet Union was Ken Dryden (and Gretzky, but that was later). Bob Clarke said the only goalie he wished he had on his team was Dryden. Bowman said his team's success in the clutch was hinged on Lemaire and Dryden.

Playoff hockey on TV in the 1970s was like the invasion of Iraq on CNN: gripping must-see and much talked about.

A little before Dryden's time, but Plante played an exhibition game against the Soviet nationals in 1965 and Tarasov said, "Jacques Plante is the best goaltender I've ever seen.''

So we're 1-1 on Russian opinions and, between your opinion and mine, Tretiak looked like 10 times the goalie Dryden was in the Summit, and was also MVP in the 1981 CC so I don't know what Tikhonov is talking about.

I'm quite comfortable with ranking Plante in an all-time sense ahead of Dryden, and I don't think he gives up anything to him in the playoffs, either.

 

[VanIslander]

Tarasov won squat against the NHL.
Tikhonov won most of the time.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Solid team @Claude The Fraud. I think Boucher-Bossy and Bourque-Kasatonov were both good duos.

 

[Claude The Fraud]

Thanks @BraveCanadian!

In the end, your Krutov-Gretzky-Mikhailov line was too much too handle. The better team won!