Olympics: 2022 Predictions for the Mid-Majors (AUT,BLR,DEN,FRA,GER,KAZ,LAT,NOR,SLO)

[BalticWarrior]

A few notes on the Latvia analysis.

Several of the players named are probably not going to be playing for the national team at all. For example, Komuls is 20 and playing in NAHL. Usually that's not a recipe for a successful pro career. Unless he's going to be a late bloomer in the NCAA, I don't see him being near the national team.

The same thing to a lesser extent applies to E. Kulda, Lipsbergs and a couple of others. So far they have failed to make the switch to pro hockey. Lipsbergs was a 0.40 PPG guy in the ECHL. If he was a tall power forward, he could be playing on the 4th line if we're missing several of our leading forwards.

Ponomarenko has fizzled out.

You've also ommitted some young prospects like Smirnovs, Koppass, Smons, Egle brothers. I don't remember seeing the names of Kalnins, Punnenovs, Kivlenieks, Mitens, Grigals. That's a lot of good goalies.

Another thing to note is that Latvians are generally late bloomers when it comes to physical development. There's a couple of reasons for that. We mature slower than most Europeans. It's a genetic thing. It sounds weird, but it's true. Sub-Saharan Africans reach puberty and their peak faster, Europeans develop a little bit later and East Asians are late bloomers. We're closer to East Asians than Europeans. That's an important little thing to note when analyzing U18, U20 prospects. The other big factor is not spending enough time in the gym in their teens. Our players usually bulk up later. So it's harder to judge Latvian prospects at an early age.

Overall, I see an increase in depth in all positions and no changes in the amount of elite talent. But I do believe the number of Latvian players in the NHL will be >1 in 4 years.

Upd.: There's also the peculiar case of Edgars Treijs. He's probably going to be a solid SHL forward and we might want to poach him back to the other side of the Baltic. He's a Latvian guy who tried having a go at making the Swedish junior national teams, but failed. I'm not sure about his eligibility, but he might join the KHL and Dinamo Riga eventually.

Your genetic knowledge is lacking. Genetically speaking we have nothing to do with East Asians, like we are very far apart if you use things like SNP clustering to determine genetic clusters/similiarities between ethnic groups. Your claim that Latvians mature later physically than other Europeans has no basis in scientific evidence.

 

[Pan]

I noticed the name Justin Fontaine in there, any other potential passport switchers?

I wanted to ask about Fontaine, but forgot. He is in no way a passport switcher, no idea why Kabidjan mentioned him.

 

[Namejs]

Really? The results for the senior team track pretty closely to the U-20 and U-18 teams:
WHC: 5 top 10 finishes since 2006
WJC: 6
U-18: 7

Sorry, what?

 

[Namejs]

Your genetic knowledge is lacking. Genetically speaking we have nothing to do with East Asians, like we are very far apart if you use things like SNP clustering to determine genetic clusters/similiarities between ethnic groups. Your claim that Latvians mature later physically than other Europeans has no basis in scientific evidence.

About a half of Latvian males are the descendants of an East Asian population that went on a Westwards migration route during the Late Paleolithic and ended up at the Eastern shores of the Baltic Sea about 8k to 10k years ago.

Genetic Evidence of an East Asian Origin and Paleolithic Northward Migration of Y-chromosome Haplogroup N

Is this news to you?

 

[kabidjan18]

I wanted to ask about Fontaine, but forgot. He is in no way a passport switcher, no idea why Kabidjan mentioned him.

It was an attempt at a joke that apparently did not go through, so it failed. I was just suggesting they might naturalize another athlete.

 

[BalticWarrior]

About a half of Latvian males are the descendants of an East Asian population that went on a Westwards migration route during the Late Paleolithic and ended up at the Eastern shores of the Baltic Sea about 8k to 10k years ago.

Genetic Evidence of an East Asian Origin and Paleolithic Northward Migration of Y-chromosome Haplogroup N

Is this news to you?

10 000 years means the groups(genetic clusters) have been seperated in time and geographic location, thus producing different phenotypes thus your hypothesis doesnt work. We are not similiar to East asians at all. We have different SNPs and we express different genes.

 

[Pan]

It was an attempt at a joke that apparently did not go through, so it failed.

No, actually it was good, it's just me hardly understanding sly humor in English yet.

 

[Bookker]

By all means, drop the names here. I'll add them as long as they seem remotely reasonable!

France

Who's in their prime :
Malo Ville (Mestis, like his brother Gabin next year), Tim Bozon (NLA), Kevin Spinozzi (AHL/ECHL)

Who's on their way up : Justin Addamo (NAHL, like Boudon), Sacha Guillemain (NAHL, same), Hugo Proux (Elite Jr A, similar stats to Bougro)

 

[Namejs]

10 000 years means the groups(genetic clusters) have been seperated in time and geographic location, thus producing different phenotypes thus your hypothesis doesnt work. We are not similiar to East asians at all. We have different SNPs and we express different genes.

Actually, there are shared phenotypical traits between Baltic populations and East Asian ones. Distinct neoteny, including rounder faces, snub noses, etc. Number of roots in teeth (3 roots per each wisdom tooth, f.e.), other dental features, prevalence of Asian-specific medical issues (Hashimoto's disease), etc.

We're not East Asian, but we do have shared traits, including reaching puberty later than most Europeans.

 

[BalticWarrior]

Actually, there are shared phenotypical traits between Baltic populations and East Asian ones. Distinct neoteny, including rounder faces, snub noses, etc. Number of roots in teeth (3 roots per each wisdom tooth, f.e.), other dental features, prevalence of Asian-specific medical issues (Hashimoto's disease), etc.

We're not East Asian, but we do have shared traits, including reaching puberty later than most Europeans.

I could not find a reputable source for any of these claims(numbers of roots,Hashimotos being more prevalent than in other European countries or having delayed pubert compared to other Europeans)
Mind sharing peer-reviewed journals to source these claims?

 

[Urbanskog]

Relevant news, China is awarded a spot in the men's (and women's) tournament so that leaves one spot less for those outside the top 8 to compete of.

IIHF - China set for Olympic ice hockey

 

[BalticWarrior]

Relevant news, China is awarded a spot in the men's (and women's) tournament so that leaves one spot less for those outside the top 8 to compete of.

IIHF - China set for Olympic ice hockey

What the f***ing point? There a high likelihood NHL goes to China so this team will just get murdered 20:0 by literally everyone.

 

[Belizarius]

Started a wide preview of the French future on our website.
GK and D are up, and it's... well, worrisome.
Defense
Goalies

 

[Namejs]

I could not find a reputable source for any of these claims(numbers of roots,Hashimotos being more prevalent than in other European countries or having delayed pubert compared to other Europeans)
Mind sharing peer-reviewed journals to source these claims?

Do you honestly think you're going to find a peer-reviewed research paper on the number of roots in the wisdom teeth of Latvian males in a population genetics perspective? You're not. There's very little research done on any general topic related to population genetics in Latvia. Especially in historical/genealogy-related matters. What I would suggest is to read up on dental differences between ethnic groups and go talk to your dentist. Do some research on your own.

There's quite a lot of info on stuff related to the onset puberty, though. It's got a lot to do with a whole array of environmental factors, urban vs. rural, poor vs. rich and your other typical dichotomies. That's self-explanatory and you have to take it into account.

I was also a little vague and misleading when using the term 'East Asian'. It's North Asians (many of whom are carriers of Y-DNA haplogroup N) that have a distinctly delayed onset of puberty. It descended in East Asia, but dispersed mostly throughout Northern Eurasia. Once again, you're probably not going to find anything about ethnic Latvians, so try using Estonians, Finns, etc., as a proxy instead.

 

[BalticWarrior]

Do you honestly think you're going to find a peer-reviewed research paper on the number of roots in the wisdom teeth of Latvian males in a population genetics perspective? You're not. There's very little research done on any general topic related to population genetics in Latvia. Especially in historical/genealogy-related matters. What I would suggest is to read up on dental differences between ethnic groups and go talk to your dentist. Do some research on your own.

There's quite a lot of info on stuff related to the onset puberty, though. It's got a lot to do with a whole array of environmental factors, urban vs. rural, poor vs. rich and your other typical dichotomies. That's self-explanatory and you have to take it into account.

I was also a little vague and misleading when using the term 'East Asian'. It's North Asians (many of whom are carriers of Y-DNA haplogroup N) that have a distinctly delayed onset of puberty. It descended in East Asia, but dispersed mostly throughout Northern Eurasia. Once again, you're probably not going to find anything about ethnic Latvians, so try using Estonians, Finns, etc., as a proxy instead.

Your very last sentence is exatly where your whole premise falls. If we assume Finns as proxy, we should be seeing these same patterns of puberty in Finns and yet Finnish kids are ripping up the NHL(just look at Laine and Aho for god sake). How come?

 

[Pan]

I was also a little vague and misleading when using the term 'East Asian'. It's North Asians

Finally China's Olympics spots got truly relevant to our little genetics thread.

 

[kabidjan18]

France

Who's in their prime :
Malo Ville (Mestis, like his brother Gabin next year), Tim Bozon (NLA), Kevin Spinozzi (AHL/ECHL)

Who's on their way up : Justin Addamo (NAHL, like Boudon), Sacha Guillemain (NAHL, same), Hugo Proux (Elite Jr A, similar stats to Bougro)

Thanks! Updated. What is the situation with Spinozzi and joining the National Team though? Why has he never done it?

 

[Namejs]

Your very last sentence is exatly where your whole premise falls. If we assume Finns as proxy, we should be seeing these same patterns of puberty in Finns and yet Finnish kids are ripping up the NHL(just look at Laine and Aho for god sake). How come?

Jesus Christ.

Age at their peak. Does not imply they're shit at 20. They peak later is what it means.

And it's a f***ing average, it doesn't apply to every individual.

 

[BalticWarrior]

Jesus Christ.

Age at their peak. Does not imply they're **** at 20. They peak later is what it means.

And it's a ****ing average, it doesn't apply to every individual.

Thats even more illogical. MOST hockey players peak at the age of 25-26 (including Latvians and Finns) and statistically regress afterwards. Our guys arent having best seasons when they hit 30. Take Dārziņš as an example- the best season he in KHL was at the age of 26 after that he has streadily declined and you will see this pattern repeat itself in all of our players.

 

[Uncle Rotter]

Sorry, what?

If what you say is true, then playing the Latvian U-20 team would be like playing their U-18 team. Playing their U-18 team would be like playing their U-17 or U-16 team. They would be floundering around with the likes of Ukraine and Poland (or worse).

 

[Uncle Rotter]

Relevant news, China is awarded a spot in the men's (and women's) tournament so that leaves one spot less for those outside the top 8 to compete of.

IIHF - China set for Olympic ice hockey

They'll be bad.

 

[ozo]

Despite our slight disagreements about some certain countries, this is really solid analysis. All that said, I hope that Belarus and Kazakhstan somehow starts breaking their superior prospects into pro hockey sooner rather than later and is being perceived above Slovenia also in your book.

 

[crobro]

I could not find a reputable source for any of these claims(numbers of roots,Hashimotos being more prevalent than in other European countries or having delayed pubert compared to other Europeans)
Mind sharing peer-reviewed journals to source these claims?

You might have to check out STORMFRONT

 

[Alessandro Seren Rosso]

Great job.
Denmark/Jokerit prospect Lucas Anderson is actually Lucas Andersen. Same for Asger Peterson > Petersen

 

[BKarchitect]

This is a super cool write-up, thanks for taking the time and research to do it.