Speculation: 2018 Root for the Tank Thread

[Icicle]

Because so many of you feel the need to discuss this every game, here's the odds for 2018 (and every year after):

1 2 3 4 5
31 18.0 16.0 14.1 51.9
30 12.5 12.1 11.6 33.7 30.1
29 10.5 10.4 10.3 12.2 39.1
28 9.5 9.5 9.6 2.3 23.8
27 8.5 8.6 8.8 7.0 32.8
26 7.6 7.8 8.0 14.1
25 6.7 7.0 7.2
24 5.8 6.1 6.4
23 5.4 5.7 6.0
22 4.5 4.8 5.1
21 3.3 3.6 3.8
20 2.7 2.9 3.2
19 2.2 2.4 2.6
18 1.8 2.0 2.2
17 1.0 1.1 1.2

If you think that a difference of 0.4-5.5% in odds is worth tanking over, then have all the fun you want discussing that here and please, only here.

(I hope this thread dies just like all my other ones)

Click to read more...

 

[Team Cozens]

Particularly this year, drafting between #3,4,5 and say 7,8,9 is a game changer.
I'm not evening thinking Dahlin, more a chance at the next best D, Tkachuk or Zadina.

Lottery draft be damned, just give us in the best possible spot BEFORE the draft.

 

[Gabrielor]

Last time I rooted for a tank, I didn’t care about nearly all of the current roster and the effect losing would have on them.

This time, it’s different. I hope we win the lotto, but I will not be rooting to lose any game.

 

[MayDay]

Because so many of you feel the need to discuss this every game, here's the odds for 2018 (and every year after):

1 2 3 4 5
31 18.0 16.0 14.1 51.9
30 12.5 12.1 11.6 33.7 30.1
29 10.5 10.4 10.3 12.2 39.1
28 9.5 9.5 9.6 2.3 23.8
27 8.5 8.6 8.8 7.0 32.8
26 7.6 7.8 8.0 14.1
25 6.7 7.0 7.2
24 5.8 6.1 6.4
23 5.4 5.7 6.0
22 4.5 4.8 5.1
21 3.3 3.6 3.8
20 2.7 2.9 3.2
19 2.2 2.4 2.6
18 1.8 2.0 2.2
17 1.0 1.1 1.2

If you think that a difference of 0.4-5.5% in odds is worth tanking over, then have all the fun you want discussing that here and please, only here.

(I hope this thread dies just like all my other ones)

Is that supposed to be some kind of a chart or table? Because all I am seeing is a solid block of numbers that's about as clear as mud.

Is it formatting differently for others?

 

[Husko]

My eyes are bleeding trying to read that table

 

[Moskau]

Is that supposed to be some kind of a chart or table? Because all I am seeing is a solid block of numbers that's about as clear as mud.

Is it formatting differently for others?

You're supposed to take a number from the top and one from the side and then open up your text books to Page 341. You take the numbers that you get there and input them into your $250 calculator which is not provided.

 

[Vito_81]

Definitely not going to be rooting for L’s.

However, at the same time. If Jan and Feb come and go with Buffalo still sitting in 30/31 range. I won’t be overly thrilled with a meaningless March winning streak.

Im not in tank mode. I’m in meh mode. These guys will realistically end up no better than 28th. More likely than not they’ll be 30th. Let the chips fall as they may.

Maybe finishing second last and winning the lottery this time is finally in the cards. To right the wrongs of past lotteries.

 

[MayDay]

Here, I think you meant to make a table like this:

Seed	1	2	3	4	5
31	18.0	16.0	14.1	51.9
30	12.5	12.1	11.6	33.7	30.1
29	10.5	10.4	10.3	12.2	39.1
28	9.5	9.5	9.6	2.3	23.8
27	8.5	8.6	8.8	7.0	32.8
26	7.8	7.8	8.0	14.1
25	6.7	7.0	7.2
24	5.8	6.1	6.4
23	5.4	5.7	6.0
22	4.5	4.8	5.1
21	3.3	3.6	3.8
20	2.7	2.9	3.2
19	2.2	2.4	2.6
18	1.8	2.0	2.2
17	1.0	1.1	1.2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

However, I don't think your numbers are correct. I don't see how the 26th or 27th finishing team (i.e. 5-6th worst in the league) can possibly wind up with the #4 seed. I think that's impossible. Either they move into the top 3, stay put, or get pushed back. There's no way for a team to move from 5th up to 4th as a result of the lottery.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Its not the 5% for 1st overall. Its also the better odds to pick 2nd, 3rd and the secured say 5th spot. Also its drafting earlier in the later rounds. Theres also difference between drafting 33 and 39. Don't blame me, I didnt create the system. This system encourages crap teams to tank once its clear they are out of it and we are quite clearly out of it. Tank full steam ahead.

Oh and start by trading away rentals that have some remote value like Kane whether they are coming back in the summer or not, we have to exttact value from expiring contracts.

 

[Team Cozens]

I expect the Canadian teams.... Ottawa, Vancouver and Montreal to fall like balloons.

31. Azizona - Dahlin
30. Ottawa - Tkachuk
29. Vancouver - Svetch
29. Montreal - Zadina
28. Buffalo - Boqvist
27. Detroit
26. Florida

 

[Icicle]

Here, I think you meant to make a table like this:

Seed	1	2	3	4	5
31	18.0	16.0	14.1	51.9
30	12.5	12.1	11.6	33.7	30.1
29	10.5	10.4	10.3	12.2	39.1
28	9.5	9.5	9.6	2.3	23.8
27	8.5	8.6	8.8	7.0	32.8
26	7.8	7.8	8.0	14.1
25	6.7	7.0	7.2
24	5.8	6.1	6.4
23	5.4	5.7	6.0
22	4.5	4.8	5.1
21	3.3	3.6	3.8
20	2.7	2.9	3.2
19	2.2	2.4	2.6
18	1.8	2.0	2.2
17	1.0	1.1	1.2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

However, I don't think your numbers are correct. I don't see how the 26th or 27th finishing team (i.e. 5-6th worst in the league) can possibly wind up with the #4 seed. I think that's impossible. Either they move into the top 3, stay put, or get pushed back. There's no way for a team to move from 5th up to 4th as a result of the lottery.

It was tab delineated and this forum doesn't show me any posting options nor will let me edit on any device I ever try, so I don't know.

Numbers are held tightly by the NHL. This is tankathon.com's estimation

 

[Kyndig]

Flip side of saying its unlikely to win the lottery also means you're likely to jump up 2-3 spots outside possible top end talent, unless you get lucky on like a Pastrnak (Mittelstadt?). If they're not going to make the playoffs they might as well bottom out. The previous 2 seasons were far better than this one...not like they built off that at all so whats the point when this year has some really good talent in the top 5 or so?

Obviously hope we win and get Dahlin because I'm not really sold on anyone after him..liked what I've seen from Zadina in the WJC. Svechnikov has been invisible most of the tournament but I blame that more on coaching. I originally wanted Boqvist if not Dahlin but they didn't add him to the junior team sadly...despite many Swedish fans saying he should've been on the team...but after like pick 6 or so its even more of a crapshoot.

 

[Sabretooth]

It was tab delineated and this forum doesn't show me any posting options nor will let me edit on any device I ever try, so I don't know.

Numbers are held tightly by the NHL. This is tankathon.com's estimation

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
Arizona	18.0	16.0	14.1	51.9
Buffalo	12.5	12.1	11.6	33.7	30.1
Ottawa	10.5	10.4	10.3	12.2	39.1	17.6
Montreal	9.5	9.5	9.6	2.3	23.8	35.5	9.9
Vancouver	8.5	8.6	8.8		7.0	32.8	28.9	5.3
Edmonton	7.6	7.8	8.0			14.1	38.2	21.6	2.7
Detroit	6.7	7.0	7.2				23.1	39.7	15.0	1.3
Florida	5.8	6.1	6.4					33.3	38.1	9.7	0.6
Philadelphia	5.4	5.7	6.0						44.1	33.0	5.5	0.2
Pittsburgh	4.5	4.8	5.1							55.9	26.8	2.8	0.1
Calgary	3.3	3.6	3.8								67.1	20.8	1.3	0.0
NY Islanders	2.7	2.9	3.2									76.2	14.5	0.5	0.0
Colorado	2.2	2.4	2.6										84.1	8.6	0.1
Chicago	1.8	2.0	2.2											90.9	3.2
Anaheim	1.0	1.1	1.2												96.7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Flip side of saying its unlikely to win the lottery also means you're likely to jump up 2-3 spots outside possible top end talent, unless you get lucky on like a Pastrnak (Mittelstadt?). If they're not going to make the playoffs they might as well bottom out. The previous 2 seasons were far better than this one...not like they built off that at all so whats the point when this year has some really good talent in the top 5 or so?

Obviously hope we win and get Dahlin because I'm not really sold on anyone after him..liked what I've seen from Zadina in the WJC. Svechnikov has been invisible most of the tournament but I blame that more on coaching. I originally wanted Boqvist if not Dahlin but they didn't add him to the junior team sadly...despite many Swedish fans saying he should've been on the team...but after like pick 6 or so its even more of a crapshoot.

Moreover Toronto last season, Colorado this season and most of all Vegas have showed that finishing even dead last doesnt mean you cant make the playoffs next season. Toronto made them and were respectable against Washington, Colorado are clearly a bubble team this year and Vegas are top2 team in the NHL from SCRATCH. This 'end on a good note so that your next season goes well' logic is quite bullshit IMO. There are like 5 months between end of regular season amd start of next one...if the offseason was smaller I may buy into the logic but with the current setup Id rather tank for talent and prospect depth than have extra 6 wins in a lost season that Im going to somehow build on 5 months later...

 

[Kyndig]

Moreover Toronto last season, Colorado this season and most of all Vegas have showed that finishing even dead last doesnt mean you cant make the playoffs next season. Toronto made them and were respectable against Washington, Colorado are clearly a bubble team this year and Vegas are top2 team in the NHL from SCRATCH. This 'end on a good note so that your next season goes well' logic is quite bull**** IMO. There are like 5 months between end of regular season amd start of next one...if the offseason was smaller I may buy into the logic but with the current setup Id rather tank for talent and prospect depth than have extra 6 wins in a lost season that Im going to somehow build on 5 months later...

Edmonton could be added to that list as well (in both the positive and negative), they finished nearly dead last and had a 103 points the following season..now this year they might miss the playoffs entirely again. Higher chance of top end talent is more important than some some blazing finish to 25th place.

 

[Dreakon13]

I'm over rooting for the tank.

The team needs more talent, particularly on D and on the wings, but more than anything this team needs a better attitude. They need to get mad about losing... not sulk or be indifferent to it. They need to learn to rally together, and the fans need to rally with them.

In all likelihood... Eichel, Risto, ROR, Okposo, Scandella aren't going anywhere. We've got our big pieces. I'm fine with adding more big pieces (duh) and moving dead weight out... but I'm not actively rooting against them anymore.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Last time I rooted for a tank, I didn’t care about nearly all of the current roster and the effect losing would have on them.

This time, it’s different. I hope we win the lotto, but I will not be rooting to lose any game.

This. I don't want guys like Eichel and Risto growing more frustrated and accustomed to losing than they already are. But I sure would love me some Dahlin. So, dream scenario: the team starts to suck a bit less and we luck out in the lottery. (Probably neither of those things will happen, but that's why it's the dream scenario )

 

[MayDay]

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
Arizona	18.0	16.0	14.1	51.9
Buffalo	12.5	12.1	11.6	33.7	30.1
Ottawa	10.5	10.4	10.3	12.2	39.1	17.6
Montreal	9.5	9.5	9.6	2.3	23.8	35.5	9.9
Vancouver	8.5	8.6	8.8		7.0	32.8	28.9	5.3
Edmonton	7.6	7.8	8.0			14.1	38.2	21.6	2.7
Detroit	6.7	7.0	7.2				23.1	39.7	15.0	1.3
Florida	5.8	6.1	6.4					33.3	38.1	9.7	0.6
Philadelphia	5.4	5.7	6.0						44.1	33.0	5.5	0.2
Pittsburgh	4.5	4.8	5.1							55.9	26.8	2.8	0.1
Calgary	3.3	3.6	3.8								67.1	20.8	1.3	0.0
NY Islanders	2.7	2.9	3.2									76.2	14.5	0.5	0.0
Colorado	2.2	2.4	2.6										84.1	8.6	0.1
Chicago	1.8	2.0	2.2											90.9	3.2
Anaheim	1.0	1.1	1.2												96.7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Thanks - this table makes much more sense.

Of course, the actual numbers might be a little off, since the NHL hasn't (to my knowledge) published the actual lottery odds for 2018.

 

[Chainshot]

So Number 5 is Alive! is the new motto?

 

[Jim Bob]

So Number 5 is Alive! is the new motto?

Not too old to get the reference.

 

[ZZamboni]

Considering the majority of sports fans who define “tanking” as:

1. Losing as many games as possible in a season.

2. Trade away as much talent as possible to assist in number 1.

3. Aquire mostly draft picks to aid in future roster building during and after a draft.

4. Icing a mediocre “AHL team” to play NHL teams.

Tanking is not happening.
Tanking will not happen anytime soon.
Tweaking the roster is not tanking.
Tanking is not tweaking the roster.

So to the pro-tank posters ...

Channeling Aerosmith.

Dream on!
Dream on!
Dream on!

Ahhhh.....

 

[Panthaz89]

Can't wait for the Penguins to win the no.1 overall pick after finishing just out and the Sabres dropping from 4 to 7.

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

This. I don't want guys like Eichel and Risto growing more frustrated and accustomed to losing than they already are. But I sure would love me some Dahlin. So, dream scenario: the team starts to suck a bit less and we luck out in the lottery. (Probably neither of those things will happen, but that's why it's the dream scenario )

That's where coaching and demands come in. We won't go anywhere with "good effort" Phil. Bring in a Torts-type in the off-season and see if Risto/Jack are accustomed to losing...

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Considering the majority of sports fans who define “tanking” as:

1. Losing as many games as possible in a season.

2. Trade away as much talent as possible to assist in number 1.

3. Aquire mostly draft picks to aid in future roster building during and after a draft.

4. Icing a mediocre “AHL team” to play NHL teams.

Tanking is not happening.
Tanking will not happen anytime soon.
Tweaking the roster is not tanking.
Tanking is not tweaking the roster.

So to the pro-tank posters ...

Channeling Aerosmith.

Dream on!
Dream on!
Dream on!

Ahhhh.....

Selling off pending UFAs and other talent we don't see in the franchise future is tanking, just a less severe form of what you described. We suck anyway, we don't even have to try too hard to finish in bottom 2-3. Just hope someone else doesn't drop like a stone in the rankings (Ottawa, Vancouver, I am looking at you).

 

[enthusiast]

What, this roster isn't tanking already?