cookie
Fresh From The Oven
At the end of the day, the draft is full of misses more than it is of hits. Even a '14 pick like Valiev eventually did make it to the NHL with the Habs and he's 60th overall from that class in games played which means that he was picked around where he should have been... Roughly speaking anyways. If the numbers suggest that we can expect slightly more NHL talents by going the draft+1,2 route, that won't become apparent immediately, and with the ways numbers work, it may never actually take place. But there's enough numbers to put solace in our guys' thinking. A 1% edge is still worth it.Personally, I am starting to be hesitant about D+1 or D+2 guys. It's a small sample size, and it's still really early, but since 2014 (Shanny's first draft I believe) these have been the D+1 or D+2 guys the Leafs have taken:
2014: LD/RD Rinat Valiev (D+1; 3rd round), LW Nolan Vesey (D+1: 6th round)
2015: LD Stephen Desrocher (D+1: 6th round)
2016: LW/RW Yegor Korshkov (D+2: 2nd round), C Adam Brooks (D+2: 4th round), LW/RW Vladimir Bobylev (D+1: 5th round), LW Jack Walker (D+2 : 6th round), LW/RW Nikolai Chebykin (D+1 : 7th round)
2017: C Vlad Kara (D+1: 4th round)
Generally, none of these guys have shown to be very promising. Besides Korshkov, Brooks and for a brief time, Valiev (all three of which were our highest drafted D+1/D+2 guys), none of them were really ranked in the top 25 in our system anywhere, and were often behind first time eligible guys who were drafted below them. Desrocher and Walker have already failed to make it even to the AHL, and Bobylev and Vesey could easily join them soon. Valiev was highly inconsistent here and eventually dropped down the depth chart to obscurity, and Brooks looks like he could be doing the same (although he is currently being given the "rookie treatment" in the AHL so it's too early to tell for sure). Korshkov is the only one who looks certain, but he was also essentially a 1st round pick, and you could argue a good number of prospects drafted below him look better than him right now.
I personally would avoid D+1 or D+2 guys unless they are truly special, and even then I think the first two rounds should not be used on them at all unless they are exceptional. All of the guys should get strong consideration, but besides Durzi (who may slip into the 2nd round but I wouldn't consider with anything higher than our 3rd) and Hollowell (who is a 4th or 5th round guy at best), none should be considered higher than like the 7th round. Taking D+1 guys down there is fine, because at least you could argue that taking first time eligible players down there is usually a crap shoot also and maybe taking a more certain bet is better than a total unknown (that and the fact that I think there is a weak crop is why I really am only interested in D+1 goalies in this draft this year). I don't have a list of D+1/2 guys taken, but typically the ones who turn into anything were well above average than a lot of guys selected in the year before, and even then they were knocked down a few rounds from what their skill set may have shown.
Really to sum things up, I think the Leafs just need to be selective when it comes to their over age guys. The overage guy needs to show some sort of growth or development that maybe was not present initially but has helped them stand out from their peers who maybe were draft previously. They can not just be "average", because then there are guys who are first time eligible who have a much better shot at being more than that. So even though it may be in the later rounds, the Leafs should avoid spending picks on guys like Vesey, Bobylev and Walker, because even though it is just the 5th or 6th round, the Leafs have been able to find guys with a lot more promise (really 3rd line was pushing it for all of them), or a lot more skill, than those guys have shown in their D+1 or D+2 years. I mean Jesper Bratt was taken after both Bobylev and Walker and he's already put up 30+ points in the NHL despite being a year or two younger than them. Kevin Labanc and Ondrej Kase already have over 100 NHL games and around 50 points before Vesey even got out of the NCAA. If I am taking an unknown, I'd rather that guy have a lot more promise and potential, and typically the overage guys have less than the guys who are first time eligible unless they did show that growth and development.
It's nice that the Leafs get a look at those guys though, because at least they got a first hand look at how they developed from one year to the next, and it's a good way to scout for AHL deals as well.
Also any idea on Brinson Pasichnuk? He, Coghlan and Kovacevik were overage guys I liked last draft..