Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[93LEAFS]

On a side note, I'm starting to think all the Halifax kids outside of Zadina are going to slide. McIsaac might be a guy who will be around in our range. It's feeling like Dobson is going to pass him on all lists by 2018.

 

[Damisoph]

It'd be almost unheard of, no 18 year old defender destroys the league.

I think Dahlin is good, and arguably the best defensive prospect in ages. I wouldn't throw the term generational around then. I think he'd go behind McDavid, Eichel and Matthews in regards to recent drafts. Young defenders are just too erratic.

I agree with everything you said. He just seems to be hyped up so much, he's bound to disappoint.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Buffalo or the Oilers will end up with him lol

 

[ITM]

It'd be almost unheard of, no 18 year old defender destroys the league.

I think Dahlin is good, and arguably the best defensive prospect in ages. I wouldn't throw the term generational around then. I think he'd go behind McDavid, Eichel and Matthews in regards to recent drafts. Young defenders are just too erratic.

I don't know...McDavid/Matthews, Dahlin...Eichel doesn't feel out of place at all.

I can't recall the last time I've seen a D-prospect like Dahlin. Maybe I just need to tune into more games and stop relying on highlights but this kid is special. By comparison he makes Chabot look inelegant.

I got piled on on another thread the months before the Matthews draft for quoting sources that perhaps didn't outright call Matthews generational, but certainly didn't argue against the notion that he might be. Rasmus Dahlin looks he's playing the position at a level that Ekblad wasn't close to, that certainly Chabot and MacAvoy weren't close to, and I don't think one would argue Karlsson or OEL had this type of attention their draft years either.

Bryan Berard feels like the last prospect (D) with this kind of hype. But with respect to skill...???

I think this kid is going to be a very special player.

 

[93LEAFS]

I don't know...McDavid/Matthews, Dahlin...Eichel doesn't feel out of place at all.

I can't recall the last time I've seen a D-prospect like Dahlin. Maybe I just need to tune into more games and stop relying on highlights but this kid is special. By comparison he makes Chabot look inelegant.

I got piled on on another thread the months before the Matthews draft for quoting sources that perhaps didn't outright call Matthews generational, but certainly didn't argue against the notion that he might be. Rasmus Dahlin looks he's playing the position at a level that Ekblad wasn't close to, that certainly Chabot and MacAvoy weren't close to, and I don't think one would argue Karlsson or OEL had this type of attention their draft years either.

Bryan Berard feels like the last prospect (D) with this kind of hype. But with respect to skill...???

I think this kid is going to be a very special player.

Well, I'd say its only really fair to compare Dahlin to other guys in their draft year. Eichel and Matthews were viewed as equals, with arguments that could go either way. Since then, Matthews has created separation, but if you had to compare Auston Matthews of June 2016 to Eichel of June 2015 I bet you split a room filled with scouts, McDavid goes above both.

Now, Dahlin is arguably the best defensive prospect in recent history. I'd say Hedman was comparable. Dahlin is better at a younger age, but Hedman while effective in his draft season, was always about his ridiculous tools that he possessed in regards to being a Chara sized giant with high-end NHL skating, that gave him an unreal ceiling. Bouwmeester at 16 is probably the most hyped defender in recent memory, as he was (and still is) the only 16-year-old defender to make Team Canada's U-20 team. He is also still the only late-birthday to make Team Canada as a 16-year-old. But, similarly to John Tavares, Bouwmeester's hype at 16 was bigger than his hype at his draft date.

Finally, in general, at the top of the draft, I historically believe in taking the forward for a variety of reasons. The primary one is, forwards (especially Centers) drive play at 5v5 more than any other position, which is arguably the biggest factor in winning outside of goaltending. The gap between an average center and an elite center in regards to dictating play at 5v5 is significantly bigger than that of defenders. The next biggest factor is, forwards tend to peak at an earlier age, which means in a cap world, you tend to get more value on their ELC's. While it can make defenders 2nd deals cheaper relative to forwards it isn't quite what you are hoping for. The other issue that needs to be pointed out, is that defenders at the top of the draft, tends to be much more erratic than the forwards, making them much more high-risk.

Of players drafted in the 2010's, I would think that Dahlin likely falls at 4 or 5 of guys I would take factoring just their pre-draft performance, with a serious debate between him and Patrik Laine. If I had to put out a top 10, it would probably look something like this.

1: McDavid
2: Matthews
3: Eichel
4: Dahlin
5: Laine
6: Mackinnon
7: Seguin
8: Hall
9: Jones
10: Marner

Now, in retrospect, I know I slept on guys like Barkov. But when judging 17 and 18 year olds and projecting NHL you will make a bunch of mistakes.

 

[Brock]

Thought that I would post this here for you guys.

Preliminary Media/Scout Poll for 2018.

OHL Prospects: Preliminary Media/Scout Poll for 2018

 

[Duke16]

I'm almost more inclined to draft a forward regardless of position. Everyone in our current forward logjam is 22 or older and that situation will play itself out sooner or later. We could use a high end 18 year old forward in our system.

 

[93LEAFS]

I'm almost more inclined to draft a forward regardless of position. Everyone in our current forward logjam is 22 or older and that situation will play itself out sooner or later. We could use a high end 18 year old forward in our system.

Yeah, although, I'd point out Kapanen is turning 21 in August and I would say he's part of the current log-jam.

We have some nice promising defenders. We lack in junior level and AHL centers but have a legit #1 who is looking to be a player who can be a top 5 player in the league, and a 1b/2a guy on a good contract. Long-term even if Nylander isn't capable of taking that center role, we can probably find a vet who can excel with the strong wingers we have in the UFA market, even if its a guy who wants a 1-year to try to bounce back and make money in the UFA market the next year.

Although, right now the draft looks deep in defenders, so it may be wise to scoop one of them up. No one we draft this year is likely to be an impact player until their draft +3 without getting some serious luck.

 

[Menzinger]

I'm almost more inclined to draft a forward regardless of position. Everyone in our current forward logjam is 22 or older and that situation will play itself out sooner or later. We could use a high end 18 year old forward in our system.

I don’t think the Leafs are in any position to start drafting for need, especially since I think that oath leads to the wrong guy getting taken more often than not.

I’m particularly biased towards taking forwards over D men with top 10 picks due to then difficulty with predicting how D men will develop, though clearly that won’t be an issue for the Leafs this season as they seem to be heading towards mid to late round 1st.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Who would you guys take if these were the players left on the board at our pick?

Evan Bouchard
Allan Mcshane
Dmitry Zavgorodniy
Jared McIsaac
Jake Wise
Rasmus Sandin
Jay O'Brian
Alexander Khovanov
Jesse Ylonen
Ty Dellandrea

For reference the 5 picks before ours in my mock were:

Calen Addison
Dominik Bokk
Serron Noel
Ryan Merkley
K'Andre Miller

 

[LeafChief]

I don’t think the Leafs are in any position to start drafting for need, especially since I think that oath leads to the wrong guy getting taken more often than not.

I’m particularly biased towards taking forwards over D men with top 10 picks due to then difficulty with predicting how D men will develop, though clearly that won’t be an issue for the Leafs this season as they seem to be heading towards mid to late round 1st.

I agree. Go BPA every time.

 

[Kiwi]

Has anyone seen Saku Vesterinen playing in the Q?

He's a RD rolling at a point a game

 

[Not My Tempo]

Who would you guys take if these were the players left on the board at our pick?

Evan Bouchard
Allan Mcshane
Dmitry Zavgorodniy
Jared McIsaac
Jake Wise
Rasmus Sandin
Jay O'Brian
Alexander Khovanov
Jesse Ylonen
Ty Dellandrea

For reference the 5 picks before ours in my mock were:

Calen Addison
Dominik Bokk
Serron Noel
Ryan Merkley
K'Andre Miller

I think Bouchard is the best out of those, but I think realistically he’ll be gone before our pick. I can see us getting McIssac though, think he’ll fall to around 24 with the way he’s played so far

 

[WTFMAN99]

Looking at boosting up our centre and defenseman prospect pool. We took a step last year in drafting some defenseman, all bigger guys in a league that is getting faster so I don't have a lot of hope for all of them.

BPA but if there are a bunch of players of similar tier around our draft slot, i'd go positional in that situation.

 

[BlueForever75]

When you have what the Leafs do in regards to depth and prospects. It is always best to keep drafting the best available player with your pick, regardless if its a forward, defenseman or goalie. You never have enough depth and having the luxury to hand pick in the future who you keep and who you deal off is a better position to be in then drafting and hoping that pick fills a void.

By all means, I know the Leafs have better offensive prospects then defensive. But there is nothing wrong having an abundance of offensive weapons that will fill a void for someone else down the line that will allow you to fill voids as well. With proven players boot!!!!

Draft best player available and the Leafs will be just fine.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I think Bouchard is the best out of those, but I think realistically he’ll be gone before our pick. I can see us getting McIssac though, think he’ll fall to around 24 with the way he’s played so far

Yeah, might be. Could get pushed up as a RD. I'm not super high on him, but I wouldn't hate it. He just seems like an average across the board guy. I don't see a single elite or carrying tool. Woo is my guy if we can trade up though.

 

[as Pure as Evil]

I've had a weird feeling about this draft so far. But I could see the lottery play out 2 ways. I think I'm just a suckered for drama but.....

Scary to say but depending on how everything goes. Could you imagine if Chicago or Detroit end up with dahlin

I think buffalo will get knocked down a few spots again. Kinda karma for the over the top tank they did.

Another good draft for us in the end I hope

 

[LeafChief]

I really like Evan Bouchard where we will likely be picking.

Also really like Jett Woo but I think he'll be off the board in the early teens.

 

[93LEAFS]

I really like Evan Bouchard where we will likely be picking.

Also really like Jett Woo but I think he'll be off the board in the early teens.

I think Woo will be somewhere in the 15-31 range. I would think Dahlin, Boqvist, Hughes, Dobson, Wilde, and Samuelsson will most likely stay ahead. This draft will be good for defenders in all parts of the first round. I think most project Woo as a solid guy who most likely tops out as a 2/3 defender with most expecting a middle pair guy. While probably somewhat safer than the others, the sky-high offensive ceiling of guys like Boqvist, Hughes, and Wilde will probably keep them ahead. While Dobson, and Samuelsson are also safe options, but I expect to be held in higher regard.

While, I am entirely about going BPA, especially when you aren't talking about two players who are clearly going to be NHL impact players (such as Doughty vs Stamkos or Tavares vs Hedman, MacKinnon vs Jones, etc). Outside the top 5 to 10, its hard enough to hit on a player who will actually be a big contributor to your team (a top 6 forward or top 4 defender), that focusing on a position is pointless.

The guy I'm really interested in as a project type pick (similar to how I was interested in taking Pierre-Olivier Joseph last year at 17, or even moving down and taking Samberg) is K'Andre Miller. I wouldn't have done this at our actual pick because I didn't expect Liljegren to slip that far (he was the highest guy left on my board), but they were two very intriguing options along with Poehling, if the 3 guys I liked for our pick didn't make it (Foote, Andersson, and Suzuki).

 

[MJ65]

This year's focus should be on Centers in earlier rounds and then the RHD - I believe we do have some wingers in our prospects pool

- 2 -3 "C" in 1st 3 rounds would be nice - we are pretty thin on Center's position

 

[Field of Dreams]

I think we should continue drafting size, which has been widely overlooked by scouts as the league moves smaller and more skilled. You look at the top defensemen drafted, and the majority are offensively gifted PMD, while to towering stay-at-home defenceman have been noticeably absent from the upper tier of the draft. Go back ten years and everyone was looking for the next Chara, overlooking guys like Karlssson. The same thing is happening now, only in reverse.

On the same note, small skilled forwards are dominating the lower end of the draft board at the expense of their larger, less skilled counterparts. Teams like Vegas demonstrate that you do not need a roster full of skill guys to win. I credit our management and scouting staff for being ahead of the curve and recognizing size is a undervalued.

It's in alot of ways like investing, the best investment managers go where the value is, as opposed to chasing the flavor of the month.

 

[Duke16]

I hope we can snag Tortora in the late rounds

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

 

[MJ65]

I think Dahlin is going to Sabres or may be Oilers? (look like when ever they are in lottery situation the win)

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Who are some of the goalies of note in this draft or guys I can try to look into?