Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[firstemperor]

Freddy is a classic safe pick.

That's hindsight bias talking IMO.

Freddy started hockey late, was a two sport athlete later into his young life for a while, and was a 6'5 adolescent/young adult growing out to his body. Bergevin groaned after the pick. I'm sure Leafs management saw huge potential in him, and a decent floor given his defensive acumen at the junior level. They were just optimistic his offensive game, and his ability to fill out would catch up.

I'm not as reactionary about losing Hunter as others, as I'm optimistic Shanny knows far more than what we know behind-the-scenes, including his drafting acumen vs Dubas's but the narrative seems odd to me. The narrative is a total straw man/extreme IMO, possibly used as a fluff piece in the Mirtle article to pump Dubas.

And before people get it twisted that I'm pro Hunter in anyway, I also think the Marner->filling out as a center, or somehow growing a few inches, late into his adult life was equal fluff to pump up the Marner selection at the time.

 

[Rare Jewel]

That's hindsight bias talking IMO.

Freddy started hockey late, was a two sport athlete later into his young life for a while, and was a 6'5 adolescent/young adult growing out to his body. Bergevin groaned after the pick. I'm sure Leafs management saw huge potential in him, and a decent floor given his defensive acumen at the junior level. They were just optimistic his offensive game, and his ability to fill out would catch up.

I respect that view, but even at the draft he was likely a 3rd line center as the top end of the upside. That what I meant by it. He didn't have any stand out tools like skating, shot, hands, but he was pretty good at a few things.

Having said that, I've liked him in the playoffs for the Marlies and have him in contention for the 4th line C spot next season. If he can grab that, then good.

I think the comparison to start is unfair to both players and a bit lazy.

 

[hamzarocks]

#CorForAGM

That guy in your 7th round had a prospect thread from 2005 I think lol. From when he was 5 or 6 years old. People talked about him as a top 10 talent at that young age. I wonder if we actually got him in the 7th round would he become a nhl caliber player.

 

[LeafChief]

That guy in your 7th round had a prospect thread from 2005 I think lol. From when he was 5 or 6 years old. People talked about him as a top 10 talent at that young age. I wonder if we actually got him in the 7th round would he become a nhl caliber player.

You're correct.

Mathias-Emilio Pettersen is famous around here. It's cool to go back and look at his thread from when he was a young boy. Would be awesome to see him make the NHL (whether that be with the Leafs or any team really) considering the information we have on him from here.

 

[93LEAFS]

I'm not going to disagree it was a puff piece and tried to show Dubas in the best possible light but if Mirtle is having information leaked to him you would have to think McLeod to the Leafs was a very real possibility

The McLeod Gauthier stuff is ridiculous but I do think there is an attempt to differentiate draft philosophy between the two men in the article which is interesting

Him going to some tournament's doesn't really intrest me that much, it was done to show Dubas in a good light and I doubt anyone would overrule professional scouts who watch these kids day in and day out because of a tournament or two (nobody smart anyway)

If you wanted to frame yourself in the best possible light. you would pick one player you would not want to draft or have significantly lower (so you know you won't draft him), leak that name as the example and then draft someone else. That is all I think that happened here, and I absolutely think the leak came from the Dubas side of the organization. There is a reason Mirtle gets these scoops.

As for the Hunter and Simmons link, Simmons doesn't really break anything, he's an op-ed writer. The only thing Hunter could have really leaked to him that he broke was that there was disharmony in the front office, but that was an open secret around the league prior to the Colorado incident, regardless of how many people here wanted to plug their ears to it (but not have to accept Hunter left right away after the Dubas promotion, which is what certain people here said all along).

 

[Menzinger]

That's hindsight bias talking IMO.

Freddy started hockey late, was a two sport athlete later into his young life for a while, and was a 6'5 adolescent/young adult growing out to his body. Bergevin groaned after the pick. I'm sure Leafs management saw huge potential in him, and a decent floor given his defensive acumen at the junior level. They were just optimistic his offensive game, and his ability to fill out would catch up.

I'm not as reactionary about losing Hunter as others, as I'm optimistic Shanny knows far more than what we know behind-the-scenes, including his drafting acumen vs Dubas's but the narrative seems odd to me. The narrative is a total straw man/extreme IMO, possibly used as a fluff piece in the Mirtle article to pump Dubas.

And before people get it twisted that I'm pro Hunter in anyway, I also think the Marner->filling out as a center, or somehow growing a few inches, late into his adult life was equal fluff to pump up the Marner selection at the time.

Re The Goat,

While I have no doubt the Leafs hoped he’d somehow undergo a “boom” in his development (maybe turn into a Courtier), Morrison flat out called him a likely 3C the day of the draft. Imo that’s a textbook “safepick” philosophy approach.

 

[Kiwi]

If you wanted to frame yourself in the best possible light. you would pick one player you would not want to draft or have significantly lower (so you know you won't draft him), leak that name as the example and then draft someone else. That is all I think that happened here, and I absolutely think the leak came from the Dubas side of the organization. There is a reason Mirtle gets these scoops.

As for the Hunter and Simmons link, Simmons doesn't really break anything, he's an op-ed writer. The only thing Hunter could have really leaked to him that he broke was that there was disharmony in the front office, but that was an open secret around the league prior to the Colorado incident, regardless of how many people here wanted to plug their ears to it (but not have to accept Hunter left right away after the Dubas promotion, which is what certain people here said all along).

I'm not a huge fan of McLeod but I'm pissed off any of this got into the public arena, I'm not happy a guy Hunter has shown some intrest in out there being discussed in the media and that Duba's has basically said he's not going to pick him, it's a bad way to do business

The media will back anybody that's going to give them information, the Athletic is a Dubas backer and the main stream guys are more inclined to back Hunter, I don't care who's leaking what to who I just want it stopped

I've seen this movie in the Nonnis years and I bloody hated it, if Dubas won't shut up or stop his acolytes talking to Mirtle i'll be unhappy as well

 

[WTFMAN99]

Re The Goat,

While I have no doubt the Leafs hoped he’d somehow undergo a “boom” in his development (maybe turn into a Courtier), Morrison flat out called him a likely 3C the day of the draft. Imo that’s a textbook “safepick” philosophy approach.

I hate the safe pick, 3 and 4Cs are generally freely available. Sure there are "quality" 3C and 4Cs in the league but it is significantly harder to get a top 6 forward (C,W) or top 4D. Swing for those. Go for safe later in the draft.

 

[Kiwi]

I hate the safe pick, 3 and 4Cs are generally freely available. Sure there are "quality" 3C and 4Cs in the league but it is significantly harder to get a top 6 forward (C,W) or top 4D. Swing for those. Go for safe later in the draft.

Some of the time those highish 1st round picks you make don't work out and the player ends up being a good 3-4C, deliberately trying to pick one in the first round doesn't make much sense to me

Go after a high end guy and if it doesn't work out try to make him into a bottom 6, bottom pair player instead as your backup plan, not your actual plan

 

[htpwn]

What does everybody think of Jonatan Berggren?

Is he someone who would be a reach at 25?

 

[LaPlante94]

Wait. Are people saying Ryan McLeod is just another Gauthier?

 

[Kelly]

What does everybody think of Jonatan Berggren?

Is he someone who would be a reach at 25?

I was actually going to post the same thing after reading this article on PPP. He seems like he'd be an interesting pick.

Dobber prospects has him @ 22, Central scouting has him @ 30 for Euros.

He'd be an interesting selection for sure, but I'm hopeful the Leafs somehow find a way to move up to select Noah Dobson, haven't caught a lot of his games, or any draft eligible prospect for that matter, but for the ones I have he's looked really good. Projects to be exactly what the Leafs need as well.

 

[Northernguy10]

Agreed!

I should hope so...It was one of my better posts...

 

[Morgs]

What does everybody think of Jonatan Berggren?

Is he someone who would be a reach at 25?

Not a reach at all. Definitely one of my favourites at our pick.

 

[SprDaVE]

What does everybody think of Jonatan Berggren?

Is he someone who would be a reach at 25?

I read from a Swedish reporter that the Leafs looked at him a lot at the U-18s (most teams did I assume) and over the last couple weeks before the end of his season. I'll try to find that snippet if I can.

I'd definitely put his name as a strong possibility, although I do think he's more of a early 2nd round pick selection --- so trading down might be better to maximise our value to get him.

 

[Nithoniniel]

If you wanted to frame yourself in the best possible light. you would pick one player you would not want to draft or have significantly lower (so you know you won't draft him), leak that name as the example and then draft someone else. That is all I think that happened here, and I absolutely think the leak came from the Dubas side of the organization. There is a reason Mirtle gets these scoops.

Are you that sure that it was a leak? I don't think I've read the article in question, but what I saw made it sound more like a conclusion drawn from Leafs scouting him heavily.

What does everybody think of Jonatan Berggren?

Is he someone who would be a reach at 25?

I really, really like him. When I do mock drafts for fun, I usually pick him. But a big reason for that is that I'm just not as familiar with this draft as I have been previous years.

 

[SprDaVE]

Are you that sure that it was a leak? I don't think I've read the article in question, but what I saw made it sound more like a conclusion drawn from Leafs scouting him heavily.

It's probably a mix of educated guessing and a vague leak. The leak might have been from a source inside the OHL that know the Leafs have been eyeing McLeod throughout the year. And it also doesn't take much of an insider to know their drafting strategy will be different because Dubas has said that it will be.

Most GMs and executives have a reporter or two that always seem to have insider knowledge though. Hunter had folks like Simmons and Kypreos to feed information too, while Dubas is probably close to Mirtle, Siegel and Johnston.

 

[93LEAFS]

Are you that sure that it was a leak? I don't think I've read the article in question, but what I saw made it sound more like a conclusion drawn from Leafs scouting him heavily.


I really, really like him. When I do mock drafts for fun, I usually pick him. But a big reason for that is that I'm just not as familiar with this draft as I have been previous years.

Mirtle's breaks from Dubas do not seem like a coincidence. I've long though Mirtle was Dubas's mouthpiece, and this is prior to this most recent story. I don't get how Mirtle would know something that specific, and it is clearly written as a puff piece in favor of Dubas. Especially because both of The Athletic's draft writers who write on prospect push that same agenda to drafting , and both report to Mirtle.

 

[Menzinger]

Mirtle's breaks from Dubas do not seem like a coincidence. I've long though Mirtle was Dubas's mouthpiece, and this is prior to this most recent story. I don't get how Mirtle would know something that specific, and it is clearly written as a puff piece in favor of Dubas. Especially because both of The Athletic's draft writers who write on prospect push that same agenda to drafting , and both report to Mirtle.

Though Mirtle has long held the same view of hockey/stats well before Dubas was on the Leafs.

It’s not exactly beyond the realm of possibility that the perspectives simply line up with one another by chance more so than specific taking direction from Dubas

 

[Menzinger]

Something I think to look for this draft is if the leaves start to take undersized D men, particularly when it comes to Height.

Have been reading a few articles that have a talking about how one of the biggest draft discrepancies is the continued bias against these guys even though now more and more smaller size D men are playing in top four roles on NHL teams.

 

[93LEAFS]

Though Mirtle has long held the same view of hockey/stats well before Dubas was on the Leafs.

It’s not exactly beyond the realm of possibility that the perspectives simply line up with one another by chance more so than specific taking direction from Dubas

I think that there likeminded-ness, and ability to end up in the same place (analytics conferences etc) would help the relationship.

I'm not saying he's a complete shill, but reporters do trade somewhat favorable coverage in exchange for scoops. Its how the industry operates and how it always operates. Dubas aligning with an analytics guy also works better because people would be quite confused if Simmons and Feschuk went all new-age tomorrow. This is clearly a scoop, one of a couple Mirtle has had over the past couple years.

Eventually, though, you have to start giving stuff to Bob and Elliot, because if not they'll hammer you on national tv every so often.

This story is clearly a scoop, and Mirtle isn't one to make stuff up. There is definetely journalistic standards. Considering the article is framed to have Dubas is the best possible light, while bashing the previous style (directly linking McLeod to Gauthier, who wasn't even a Hunter pick), its pretty clear the leak came from either Dubas, or someone favorable to him. Its not like Hunter or Hofford are going to leak the McLeod pick to Mirtle, only for him to bash them in the article.

Hunter or his side isn't going to leak stuff to Dubas's number 1 promoter in the Toronto media and to think they would is insanity and ignores how the sports media works.

 

[Liminality]

I think that there likeminded-ness, and ability to end up in the same place (analytics conferences etc) would help the relationship.

I'm not saying he's a complete shill, but reporters do trade somewhat favorable coverage in exchange for scoops. Its how the industry operates and how it always operates. Dubas aligning with an analytics guy also works better because people would be quite confused if Simmons and Feschuk went all new-age tomorrow. This is clearly a scoop, one of a couple Mirtle has had over the past couple years.

Eventually, though, you have to start giving stuff to Bob and Elliot, because if not they'll hammer you on national tv every so often.

This story is clearly a scoop, and Mirtle isn't one to make stuff up. There is definetely journalistic standards. Considering the article is framed to have Dubas is the best possible light, while bashing the previous style (directly linking McLeod to Gauthier, who wasn't even a Hunter pick), its pretty clear the leak came from either Dubas, or someone favorable to him. Its not like Hunter or Hofford are going to leak the McLeod pick to Mirtle, only for him to bash them in the article.

Hunter or his side isn't going to leak stuff to Dubas's number 1 promoter in the Toronto media and to think they would is insanity and ignores how the sports media works.

Or a scout noticed that the Leafs were heavily scouting McLeod? I still don't think this was Dubas telling Mirtle to run this story to make him look good.

"It seemed like a pretty good piece of info at the time.
A few weeks ago, I was told the Maple Leafs were all over Ryan McLeod, the 18-year-old, draft-eligible centre playing for the Mississauga Steelheads."

"Toronto has been watching McLeod closely all year. In fact, they talked to him more than any other NHL team — and not just because they’re in the same neighbourhood. They were really interested.
Emphasis on were. Because I don’t think Kyle Dubas will select him next month in Dallas."

It sounds like maybe a scout talked to Mirtle and Mirtle is making assumptions to make a story.

 

[93LEAFS]

Or a scout noticed that the Leafs were heavily scouting McLeod? I still don't think this was Dubas telling Mirtle to run this story to make him look good.

"It seemed like a pretty good piece of info at the time.
A few weeks ago, I was told the Maple Leafs were all over Ryan McLeod, the 18-year-old, draft-eligible centre playing for the Mississauga Steelheads."

"Toronto has been watching McLeod closely all year. In fact, they talked to him more than any other NHL team — and not just because they’re in the same neighbourhood. They were really interested.
Emphasis on were. Because I don’t think Kyle Dubas will select him next month in Dallas."

It sounds like maybe a scout talked to Mirtle and Mirtle is making assumptions to make a story.

Believe what you want. This is an organizational leak on some level, this isn't coming from outside the organization. Even if outside scouts or people who work for Sauga noticed us scouting McLeod, they would not know our draft board was heavily altered after Dubas was hired. Its also pretty well timed because the story was placed right as Hunter departed, in an attempt to minimize his loss (to the extent they almost tried to link the Gauthier pick to him).

Mirtle also never gets scouting scoops historically. He doesn't cover the NHL draft and isn't at those events. Maybe if it came from Pronman or someone who covers scouting events it would be a scout, but I don't see why someone on Mark's staff would play this up, as the information was used to make Mark Hunter look bad.

 

[MyBudJT]

Phillipp Kurashev could be a good 2nd round option.

 

[93LEAFS]

This is where I am not only torn, but also appreciate the difficulty of a scout's job.

The fine line between safe and home run and how many of each you go for each draft. A name that comes to mind is Kiril Kabanov. A lot of posters here were quite sour when he slipped in the draft and we didn't swing for the fences and take him. How did he turn out?

I don't want a Gauthier, but at the same time, a minor cup of coffee is better than no cup of coffee at all.

I think this is how it should be considered, especially late first round.

High end: 2nd liner, low end: 3rd liner: Take him no questions asked

But if that option is not there and its between

High end: 2nd liner, low end: won't make it
vs
High end: 3rd liner, low end: 4th liner

Enh. I kind of want that second option, even if it comes with a risk of passing on the higher upside guy. In the end I want the guy to play and past pick 20, its not really a guarantee for anyone, so give me a floor to work with, you know?

Either way its not easy.

Just going to point this out with Kabanov. He was basically built fully on hype, he never really showed much of anything in the CHL. Another thing, while the average fan didn't know it at the time, but any scout who did the research into him that all teams did, he had a very serious drinking problem and basically just sat at his billets and got blackout. We aren't talking junior player who occasionally drinks too much on nights they have the next day off, but a full-blown alcoholic. Its why teams really have to do their research.

As for your scenario's while they make sense. I don't think any kid is a guarentee to be an NHLer outside the kids at the very top of the draft. Anyone who isn't viewed as a clear top 5 pick generally has a chance of flaming out. For example Griffin Reinhart, hell, even Yakupov is a barely passable NHLer (although he's gotten time).

Something like 55% of players who are picked around 21 to 25 in the NHL draft won't be capable of playing 200 or more games as something resembling a valuable piece (a top 9 forward, a top 4 defender or a starting goalie). Just to illustrate, here's a list of everyone drafted from 21 to 25 from 2005 until 2012 classified into groupings. I did this last year, so people may have moved a bit since, but probably not more than a tier. Guys like Riley Nash and Subban have probably moved up, although Nash's emergence is quite late into his career after being a journeyman 4th liner. Even removing those 2 from the equation as 4th liners or AHL starters, 22 of the 40 players taken provide no real value to a franchise. The other thing that should be noted is, that the busts come from all different sorts of demographics. From safe players who can carve out a bottom 6 role (Tyler Biggs and Jordan Caron) to high-risk high-upside players (Jordan Schroeder and John Moore), etc. I will say, its very hard to compare guys who are from Rielly's draft who haven't settled into what they actually are (Mattheson, Subban) to guys entering the back stretch. I'd also add, since I did this last year, with a quick look at 2013, 4 of the 5 are tracking to not make it as top 9 forwards (Gauthier, McCarron, Shinkaruk and Poirer) with one looking like a middle 6er (Burakovsky). 2014 and 2015 look more promising, but its a bit early to categorize those guys (but Boeser, Konecny, and Pastrnak will boost things a bit). I should also bump up Noesen who is now a 4th liner, but after being waiver fodder and providing little value to the teams that had him as a prospect outside of being used as a trade chip for Bobby Ryan.

Superstars (1)
Claude Giroux
Stars (2)
Tuuka Rask
Max Pacioretty
Top line/Top pairing/Starter (3)
TJ Oshie
Semyon Varlamov
Jordan Eberle
Top 4/Top 6/Fringe starter
Mikkel Backlund
Marcus Johansson
Kevin Hayes
Olli Maata
3rd liner/5th D/Backup
Andrew Cogliano
Patrik Berglund
Riley Sheahan
Mark Pysyk
Michael Matheson
Mark Jankowski
4th liner/6th D/flameout/AHL Starter with potential
John Moore
Joe Morrow
Matt Puempel
Malcolm Subban
Jordan Schmaltz
Rielly Nash
Outright bust
Nicklas Bergfors
Jonathan Blum
Patrick White
Bobby Sanguietti
Dennis Persson
Anton Gustafsson
Tyler Cuma
Mattias Tedenby
Greg Nemisz
Jordan Schroeder
Tim Erixon
Jordan Caron
Jarrod Tinordi
Quinten Howden
Stefan Noesen
Tyler Biggs
Stuart Percy
Matt Lashoff