Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[Judas Tavares]

Some near random thoughts:
When Dubas was acting GM for the 2015 draft, he was certainly trying to trade #4 (Marner, as it turned out) to Columbus for their pick plus x. Columbus turned him down per a clip caught on tape. Did he think Marner would slip to 7 or did he hope for Provorov or Werenski? Who knows, but we know he tried. We also know he did trade down from pick 24, and subsequently 29 for multiple later picks. In short, there is a track record of trading down. But the prospect pool was very shallow at that time. Maybe, he will feel that the situation is different now. Still, nobody should be surprised if he does trade down from 25.

It should be remembered that Dubas is an OHL raised guy, like Hunter.

I doubt that the Leafs would get two early 2nd round picks for 25. The relative value of picks is much better quantified than in 2011. Besides, Burke strikes me as a more impulsive, intuition based guy and management of most teams may be more numbers oriented now. I think the proposed trade with Vancouver may indeed be a little low on value but is more likely than either the Montreal or Detroit deals. Still, I agree that if either of those trades is actually offered, I think Dubas would snap it up.

Any rumours about who will be the acting head scout for the Leafs? Anyone the Leafs may hire away from another team would likely have the same conditions slapped on the contract as Hunter had

I think the hope was for Werenski or Rantanen.

 

[Kiwi]

I hope so, 1 giant dman per draft is fine but our last few drafts have had 2+. I get you need 5 and hope one pans out but I don’t like that they were obviously targeting a giant dman and hoping so much. Higher ceiling in terms of skill and skating has so much more chance of panning out than low scoring jnr dmen who are 6’5” or bigger

Yeah, I'm not going to cry that we've decided to stop that little experiment

 

[Cor]

#CorForAGM

 

[Northernguy10]

I

 

[Kiwi]

#CorForAGM

There's a Wilde thread on the main boards and two charts side by side, ones of Wilde the other Miller

After looking at that Wilde wouldn't be my first choice if Miller is on the board still

 

[hockeynorth]

This was my go at it, I came away pretty pleased with who I got where I did

 

[Rare Jewel]

Here's the snippet of Mirtles section on McLeod and their drafting strategy change:

While I'm not the biggest McLoed guy around. There's a few things...

If you deem a players upside to be a 2nd line C, given where we're picking at 25, that's not a bad return even still. Also this makes me think that if a guy like O'Reilly (or players like him) comes around, that they may not even be considered.

 

[ErnieLeafs]

You missed the point. He's saying that McLeod is at best a 2nd line center but chances are, he ends up being a bottom line player, or worst, because he doesn't appear to have the upside to be more than that. They aren't saying he's not a good prospect that doesn't deserve to be picked in that area. Some of the reasons given is his age being one of the oldest of the draft and his production not matching some other prospects that should be available. I have seen him a few times and he definitely isn't a great prospect in my eyes.

Mirtle is just reporting that they are likely not going to aim for "safe" prospects like McLeod. Plenty of teams have that philosophy.

Yeah, that's about right. For me, at this point, it kinda depends on the position. For defense, I feel we need to be a little more careful, because we lack depth, and guys who project to be NHL'ers. If we can get a guy who looks to be a 4-6 NHL defenseman late in the first, I'll take him over a risk at the position.

With our forward depth, I think we can afford more risky players with high ceiling/low floor, because the need isn't as immediate. Centres, though, are another animal.

This is where I am not only torn, but also appreciate the difficulty of a scout's job.

The fine line between safe and home run and how many of each you go for each draft. A name that comes to mind is Kiril Kabanov. A lot of posters here were quite sour when he slipped in the draft and we didn't swing for the fences and take him. How did he turn out?

I don't want a Gauthier, but at the same time, a minor cup of coffee is better than no cup of coffee at all.

I think this is how it should be considered, especially late first round.

High end: 2nd liner, low end: 3rd liner: Take him no questions asked

But if that option is not there and its between

High end: 2nd liner, low end: won't make it
vs
High end: 3rd liner, low end: 4th liner

Enh. I kind of want that second option, even if it comes with a risk of passing on the higher upside guy. In the end I want the guy to play and past pick 20, its not really a guarantee for anyone, so give me a floor to work with, you know?

Either way its not easy.

I'm in agreement here.

 

[SprDaVE]

While I'm not the biggest McLoed guy around. There's a few things...

If you deem a players upside to be a 2nd line C, given where we're picking at 25, that's not a bad return even still. Also this makes me think that if a guy like O'Reilly (or players like him) comes around, that they may not even be considered.

I don't mind McLeod but considering some decent players around his ranking, he's probably not going to be the best player available in a lot eyes and I think that's pretty fair. I don't disagree that his upside is rather limited compared to many of the other prospects I see still available.

 

[4thline]

I don't mind McLeod but considering some decent players around his ranking, he's probably not going to be the best player available in a lot eyes and I think that's pretty fair. I don't disagree that his upside is rather limited compared to many of the other prospects I see still available.

McLeod being around our pick was one of the reasons I was so pro trade down. Caveat - I weigh late borns extra year heavily against them, I just couldn't see him as 15-30-45 picks better than guys like pre U18 Dellandrea, Hillis, Dunkley

 

[93LEAFS]

I think the belief that we were a lock to draft McLeod a bit ridiculous. Its pretty clearly an organized leak by someone on the Leafs side to put Dubas taking over the draft in a favorable light. The comparison of McLeod to Gauthier is also a bit comical, and this is coming from someone who is on record as not being a Ryan McLeod fan.

 

[Garlando]

Any thoughts or insights on Kevin Bahl of the Ottawa 67's? Read a pretty glowing report on him from OHL prospects:

Love this kid. Behemoth 6'6, 230lbs defender who is a hybrid between being a pure throwback to the Derian Hatcher/Chris Pronger era, and a modern defender who can make quick decisions and move the puck. Thought he was Canada's best defender at the U18's this year, where his terrific work in his own end was on full display. The one thing I love about Bahl is how good his agility is for a big man in the defensive end. Lateral and backwards mobility are solid. So you've got this huge 6'6 reach, but he's also able to recover and stay with attackers as they drive the net. Also helps him recover loose pucks and dump ins quickly. Over the course of the second half, we really saw him start to use his size physically too. Becoming a lot tougher to play against and could be an absolute beast in the defensive end, if he isn't already. Offensively, he's better than he's given credit for. He's never going to win a scoring title, but his decision making with the puck in the defensive end has greatly improved, as has his exit pass. So good at preventing offenses from setting up their attack, because he's able to seal off forecheckers from getting to dump ins, and then makes a quick outlet to a wing to start the breakout. That -21 this year certainly isn't pretty, but I don't think it's indicative of his d-zone ability. He's smart in the offensive zone too. This guy's goals at the Hlinka, Top Prospect's Game, and the U18's were no fluke. He anticipates the play really well and as he gains confidence in his puck skill and shot, I think we'll see him take more chances and increase his offensive output. I just don't think you can argue against how well he's played when the stakes have been raised. Personally like Bahl better than Logan Stanley as an NHL prospect.

 

[Rare Jewel]

I think the belief that we were a lock to draft McLeod a bit ridiculous. Its pretty clearly an organized leak by someone on the Leafs side to put Dubas taking over the draft in a favorable light. The comparison of McLeod to Gauthier is also a bit comical, and this is coming from someone who is on record as not being a Ryan McLeod fan.

I see tons of Freddy in this, don't you?



There's a bit of style difference.

 

[dangomon]

I

Agreed!

 

[93LEAFS]

I see tons of Freddy in this, don't you?

Maybe if Freddy somehow learned to be an elite skater and have better vision. Not that I'm a fan of Ryan McLeod.

 

[Kiwi]

I think the belief that we were a lock to draft McLeod a bit ridiculous. Its pretty clearly an organized leak by someone on the Leafs side to put Dubas taking over the draft in a favorable light. The comparison of McLeod to Gauthier is also a bit comical, and this is coming from someone who is on record as not being a Ryan McLeod fan.

I wouldn't say lock but we do seem to be very interested if what Mirtle is saying is true, I'm not in love with McLeod either but he's a fair enough choice at #25 if that's how Hunter was leaning

I'll be interested who Dubas takes but I'm still very much in favour of K'andre Miller, I loves me some tools

 

[93LEAFS]

I wouldn't say lock but we do seem to be very interested if what Mirtle is saying is true, I'm not in love with McLeod either but he's a fair enough choice at #25 if that's how Hunter was leaning

I'll be interested who Dubas takes but I'm still very much in favour of K'andre Miller, I loves me some tools

I think its spin put out to be a puff piece in favor of Dubas. I don't think we know who Hunter would have taken, because the draft board wouldn't have been concrete. I mean, maybe he had Ryan McLeod as a top 10 pick (something I extremely doubt), so there is no way in certainty you can talk about a pick in the 20's with one player being the guy.

I also think it was ridiculous whoever leaked it to single out one kid and then put him in a situation where he's compared to Goat in a negative way (who is still part of the organization) in an attempt to boost how Dubas views the draft. It was such a puff piece by Mirtle it was a bit ridiculous. He's going on about how big a deal it was Dubas was at an obscure event like 5 nations? Hell, a bunch of full fledged NHL gms were there. It be like me calling Hlinka or U19 Jr-A challenge obscure. Maybe to the average fan, but to the NHL scouting community, those are events where you expect sizable NHL presences.

 

[LeafChief]

Put me down as someone with no interest in Ryan McLeod. None.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Maybe if Freddy somehow learned to be an elite skater and have better vision. Not that I'm a fan of Ryan McLeod.

Freddy is a classic safe pick.

I think there's risk to McLeod despite the article claiming he's safer pick because it's easy to lured by his skating say. At #25 I don't know, a bit further down, possibly.


While on the topic - how much of your opinion on him is influenced by him not going to Flint ?

 

[Rare Jewel]

Double post.

 

[stickty111]

I think its spin put out to be a puff piece in favor of Dubas. I don't think we know who Hunter would have taken, because the draft board wouldn't have been concrete. I mean, maybe he had Ryan McLeod as a top 10 pick (something I extremely doubt), so there is no way in certainty you can talk about a pick in the 20's with one player being the guy.

I also think it was ridiculous whoever leaked it to single out one kid and then put him in a situation where he's compared to Goat in a negative way (who is still part of the organization) in an attempt to boost how Dubas views the draft. It was such a puff piece by Mirtle it was a bit ridiculous. He's going on about how big a deal it was Dubas was at an obscure event like 5 nations? Hell, a bunch of full fledged NHL gms were there. It be like me calling Hlinka or U19 Jr-A challenge obscure. Maybe to the average fan, but to the NHL scouting community, those are events where you expect sizable NHL presences.

I havent ever been a big fan of Mirtle. There is a reason I unfollowed him on twitter.
In regards to your post on this topic, I can agree with this. I didnt like when you said yesterday, Dubas is providing the leaks when there isnt much evidence of that. Thats what got me upset. Just because both are in favor of analytics(all though Dubas' impact gets overstated), doesnt mean one is providing info to the other. A leaf representative possibly gave Mirtle the story on Ryan McLeod, but we cant just assume it was Dubas.
On twitter, something got brought up that about 2 thirds of media coverage on Mark Hunter was from Steve Simmonds. Its like me saying Hunter provided leaks to Simmonds, even though there isnt much proof.

 

[93LEAFS]

Freddy is a classic safe pick.

I think there's risk to McLeod despite the article claiming he's safer pick because it's easy to lured by his skating say. At #25 I don't know, a bit further down, possibly.


While on the topic - how much of your opinion on him is influenced by him not going to Flint ?

None, I don’t hold any of that against kids. They have one chance to make their NHL dream work and there are clearly disfunctional organizations (although Sauga ain’t that well run).

 

[Kiwi]

I think its spin put out to be a puff piece in favor of Dubas. I don't think we know who Hunter would have taken, because the draft board wouldn't have been concrete. I mean, maybe he had Ryan McLeod as a top 10 pick (something I extremely doubt), so there is no way in certainty you can talk about a pick in the 20's with one player being the guy.

I also think it was ridiculous whoever leaked it to single out one kid and then put him in a situation where he's compared to Goat in a negative way (who is still part of the organization) in an attempt to boost how Dubas views the draft. It was such a puff piece by Mirtle it was a bit ridiculous. He's going on about how big a deal it was Dubas was at an obscure event like 5 nations? Hell, a bunch of full fledged NHL gms were there. It be like me calling Hlinka or U19 Jr-A challenge obscure. Maybe to the average fan, but to the NHL scouting community, those are events where you expect sizable NHL presences.

I'm not going to disagree it was a puff piece and tried to show Dubas in the best possible light but if Mirtle is having information leaked to him you would have to think McLeod to the Leafs was a very real possibility

The McLeod Gauthier stuff is ridiculous but I do think there is an attempt to differentiate draft philosophy between the two men in the article which is interesting

Him going to some tournament's doesn't really intrest me that much, it was done to show Dubas in a good light and I doubt anyone would overrule professional scouts who watch these kids day in and day out because of a tournament or two (nobody smart anyway)

 

[Rare Jewel]

None, I don’t hold any of that against kids. They have one chance to make their NHL dream work and there are clearly disfunctional organizations (although Sauga ain’t that well run).

Alright then.

I wouldn't either, but just curious.

 

[HC7]

Freddy a safe pick to become a bust.