Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[93LEAFS]

Patrice Bergeron is the only C taken so late that I can think of that made the immediate jump and he was taken at 45.

ROR was a center in his draft +2 taken lately (even was in his draft +1). But, we are talking of like 2 kids over like 3000 picks. Those aren't promising odds.

 

[DraftGuru]

ROR was a center in his draft +2 taken lately (even was in his draft +1). But, we are talking of like 2 kids over like 3000 picks. Those aren't promising odds.

Its all on circumstance and oppourtunity. Could there have been more? Probably under the right circumstances but it isn't the norm. Any player we take, regardless os position will need 2 or 3 years to mature. Maybe the odd Euro like Kravtsov who is already making his mark in the KHL, can make a quicker and smoother transition. I think Mattias Samuelsson after a year of NCAA hockey could probably help a team sooner rather than later.

 

[93LEAFS]

Its all on circumstance and oppourtunity. Could there have been more? Probably under the right circumstances but it isn't the norm. Any player we take, regardless os position will need 2 or 3 years to mature. Maybe the odd Euro like Kravtsov who is already making his mark in the KHL, can make a quicker and smoother transition. I think Mattias Samuelsson after a year of NCAA hockey could probably help a team sooner rather than later.

Yeah, the thing is in our case, we are talking about trying to put in a guy at young age as an NHL center on a team with cup asperations. To hope for that in 2019-20 from a kid we draft this year, is just a bit too optimistic for me.

 

[MyBudJT]

Just an FYI, here are some Summer Camp Invites stats that have had decent seasons and could get drafted in the later rounds:

C - Connor Dewar [WHL] <- 36G and 63P in 63 games
RD - Sean Durzi [OHL] <- 15G and 47P in 37 games
RD - Mac Hollowell [OHL] <- 12G and 51P in 57 games
LW/RW - Linus Nyman [OHL] <- 36G and 77P in 63 games
RD - Vadislav Yeryonkenko [WHL] <- 13G and 38P in 57 games

Camp standout Jacob Tortora has had an okay rookie seasons in the NCAA, but not sure if its good enough to warrant a late round pick:
LW - Jacob Tortora [NCAA] <- 6G and 13P in 31 games

 

[NCoRe]

Durzi definitely looks Interestin case to look for

 

[WTFMAN99]

Yeah, the thing is in our case, we are talking about trying to put in a guy at young age as an NHL center on a team with cup asperations. To hope for that in 2019-20 from a kid we draft this year, is just a bit too optimistic for me.

Any 20th-2nd round pick is likely 2 years off most likely, could be more. Krejci took a couple of years post NHL draft as an example as a 2nd rounder.

 

[3headeddragon]

What do people think of Maxim Golod out of the Erie Otters. Seen him last Saturday and he is a beautiful skater. He looked taller than the 5'10 listed but really skinny. I think he'd be a really good 4th round pick. He seemed to be driving the net and carrying the play at times on the ice.

 

[DraftGuru]

Another D+1 to look at is Justin Brazeau. He is putting up huge numbers in North Bay. The kid is a giant. Better prospect than Curtis Douglas? Not sure who I would take if I had the choice.

 

[MyBudJT]

Another D+1 to look at is Justin Brazeau. He is putting up huge numbers in North Bay. The kid is a giant. Better prospect than Curtis Douglas? Not sure who I would take if I had the choice.

Brazeau appears to be a D+2... According to Eliteprospects, Douglas plays the more important position and is two years younger. I'd probably go with Douglas...

 

[DraftGuru]

Brazeau appears to be a D+2... According to Eliteprospects, Douglas plays the more important position and is two years younger. I'd probably go with Douglas...

Yeah I would go with Douglas as well. If he is around in the 3rd, I'd snap him up. I just see these huge guys and get flashbacks of our Gauthier pick but then again, this isn't the 1st round lol

 

[Scott Malkinson]

Dmytro Timashov and Vitali Kravtsov are friends on Instagram.

I wonder how that happens. There is no direct link between them through hockey. Unless it's through agents.

 

[Scott Malkinson]

Figured it out.

Timashov spent the summer in Colorado. Training with other young players. Some Russian, some Swedish. Kravtsov spent last summer in Colorado too. They have mutual friends.

None of it really matters. Just a little social media investigative work.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Brazeau appears to be a D+2... According to Eliteprospects, Douglas plays the more important position and is two years younger. I'd probably go with Douglas...

Brazeau is very good defensively as well, but not sure the skating will translate to the NHL. If he turns out, he could become a huge body who plays in the bottom 6, essentially a RW version of Gauthier but probably not as good, and I do not think I'd spend a draft pick on that. AHL contract after his OA year... Definitely would go for that.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

What do people think of Maxim Golod out of the Erie Otters. Seen him last Saturday and he is a beautiful skater. He looked taller than the 5'10 listed but really skinny. I think he'd be a really good 4th round pick. He seemed to be driving the net and carrying the play at times on the ice.

Unless he has special skills, he'll probably go later on if at all. Could be a good pick in the 6th or 7th round, when the Leafs may consider bolstering their wing depth, but I think the Leafs focus upon around average sized defense and center (so not undersized but not the fridges they have drafted in the past either) in the top 4 rounds barring a really special talent being available.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Another D+1 to look at is Justin Brazeau. He is putting up huge numbers in North Bay. The kid is a giant. Better prospect than Curtis Douglas? Not sure who I would take if I had the choice.

Douglas every day of the week. Not only is he two years younger, he's a rare body size and plays center (although Brazeau at 6'6" is also rare). Seems to have things a lot more together too.

If Douglas is there in the 3rd round, I would probably take him.

Brazeau shouldn't get any consideration until the 5th round at the very earliest. The guy tops out as a bottom 6er, and that's if his skating comes together, which it likely won't.

 

[cookie]

I really like Evan Bouchard's production even with the team getting rid of some it's more talented offensive players this January. I wonder who the better talent is better between he, Dobson, and Merkley and by how much exactly... Bouchard plays all situations, is a rightie and would perfectly complement Liljegren, Rielly, and Gardiner. Man it would have been something to have had a shot at these guys this draft...

 

[93LEAFS]

I really like Evan Bouchard's production even with the team getting rid of some it's more talented offensive players this January. I wonder who the better talent is better between he, Dobson, and Merkley and by how much exactly... Bouchard plays all situations, is a rightie and would perfectly complement Liljegren, Rielly, and Gardiner. Man it would have been something to have had a shot at these guys this draft...

Dobson is by far the safest to be an effective top 4 NHL defender in my eyes. Bouchard at the very least should be a PP specialist though.

Don't be shocked if Merkley is on the board when we pick, and don't be surprised if we pass on him if that happens.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Dobson is by far the safest to be an effective top 4 NHL defender in my eyes. Bouchard at the very least should be a PP specialist though.

Don't be shocked if Merkley is on the board when we pick, and don't be surprised if we pass on him if that happens.

Pretty much. Bouchard has the most upside, Dobson is probably the safest pick, but has slightly less upside. Merkley is just one big mess with a ton of potential but likely will never reach it. Tons of guys like him with less problems (on and off the ice) could not make it and were about as talented as he was, if not possibly more (Murphy, DeAngelo, etc.). I don't remember the last time someone like Merkley was able to make it. Like all of the good "offensive defensemen" were at least decent defensively as well, which is much better the Merkley right now.

I have a feeling Merkley drops to the 2nd round to a team having some extra picks and needs someone with a ton of talent in their pool. Maybe Montreal since they do have 4 2nd round picks this year? Hope they get another Subban in the 2nd round?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I really like Evan Bouchard's production even with the team getting rid of some it's more talented offensive players this January. I wonder who the better talent is better between he, Dobson, and Merkley and by how much exactly... Bouchard plays all situations, is a rightie and would perfectly complement Liljegren, Rielly, and Gardiner. Man it would have been something to have had a shot at these guys this draft...

We'll get a shot at some pretty talented guys as well. Maybe not Liljegren quality or upside but we could easily get another Kapanen or Dermott level guy into the system with that pick, and probably another Grundstrom level guy with the 2nd round pick. Nothing super fancy but the Leafs are not really desperate for core guys anymore anyways. We've got our core up front, we've got our core on the back end assuming Liljegren and Dermott turn out, and Andersen is there for a while with a handful of high potential prospects behind him. Get a couple of centers and defenseman, maybe a goalie and the odd winger or two for depth as well, and that's a pretty good draft haul.

 

[meefer]

You're help is requested.
I'm no expert about players in the draft, but I would suggest the Leafs still have a need for a top/high end prospect at D or C. I suspect the Leafs will be drafting in the mid 20s OA and I don't know whether this draft offers the Leafs the type of player I'd like to see added to the team's depth chart at that mid 20s position.
My question(s): Am I correct in believing a mid 20s pick, while good, won't present a high end prospect? Do we have the ammo to trade on draft day for a pick in the 13-18 slots and do these positions offer us a substantially better upside player? Would teams consider the Leaf 1st + Borgman (for example as he does have an NHL resume for teams to judge) for their earlier in the round 1st?
I'm not hoping to acquire Dahlin, well I am but...I'm just curious if such a move should be considered by management and if you folks see any possible targets that might fill a need? Thanks.

 

[cookie]

Pretty much. Bouchard has the most upside, Dobson is probably the safest pick, but has slightly less upside. Merkley is just one big mess with a ton of potential but likely will never reach it. Tons of guys like him with less problems (on and off the ice) could not make it and were about as talented as he was, if not possibly more (Murphy, DeAngelo, etc.). I don't remember the last time someone like Merkley was able to make it. Like all of the good "offensive defensemen" were at least decent defensively as well, which is much better the Merkley right now.

I have a feeling Merkley drops to the 2nd round to a team having some extra picks and needs someone with a ton of talent in their pool. Maybe Montreal since they do have 4 2nd round picks this year? Hope they get another Subban in the 2nd round?

I know Merkley would quit on back checks and what have you but is it really that bad for the guy that he won't be making it past the first round? I think someone will pull a Garth Snow and pick him up--he skates just too dang well and there's always the possibility of scouts having too high expectations. He's one of the youngest guys in the draft and has been one of the brighter spots on a rather limited Guelph team. I think his story could be like how Liljegren's was in '16...

Dobson is by far the safest to be an effective top 4 NHL defender in my eyes. Bouchard at the very least should be a PP specialist though.

Don't be shocked if Merkley is on the board when we pick, and don't be surprised if we pass on him if that happens.

Doesn't Bouchard play all situations? Just curious about the rather limited floor you've given him.


***I'm hating this site's redesign--cant type without screwing something up

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Just an FYI, here are some Summer Camp Invites stats that have had decent seasons and could get drafted in the later rounds:

C - Connor Dewar [WHL] p>
RD - Sean Durzi [OHL] p>
RD - Mac Hollowell [OHL] p>
LW/RW - Linus Nyman [OHL] p>
RD - Vadislav Yeryonkenko [WHL] p>

Camp standout Jacob Tortora has had an okay rookie seasons in the NCAA, but not sure if its good enough to warrant a late round pick:
LW - Jacob Tortora [NCAA]

Personally, I am starting to be hesitant about D+1 or D+2 guys. It's a small sample size, and it's still really early, but since 2014 (Shanny's first draft I believe) these have been the D+1 or D+2 guys the Leafs have taken:

2014: LD/RD Rinat Valiev (D+1; 3rd round), LW Nolan Vesey (D+1: 6th round)
2015: LD Stephen Desrocher (D+1: 6th round)
2016: LW/RW Yegor Korshkov (D+2: 2nd round), C Adam Brooks (D+2: 4th round), LW/RW Vladimir Bobylev (D+1: 5th round), LW Jack Walker (D+2 : 6th round), LW/RW Nikolai Chebykin (D+1 : 7th round)
2017: C Vlad Kara (D+1: 4th round)

Generally, none of these guys have shown to be very promising. Besides Korshkov, Brooks and for a brief time, Valiev (all three of which were our highest drafted D+1/D+2 guys), none of them were really ranked in the top 25 in our system anywhere, and were often behind first time eligible guys who were drafted below them. Desrocher and Walker have already failed to make it even to the AHL, and Bobylev and Vesey could easily join them soon. Valiev was highly inconsistent here and eventually dropped down the depth chart to obscurity, and Brooks looks like he could be doing the same (although he is currently being given the "rookie treatment" in the AHL so it's too early to tell for sure). Korshkov is the only one who looks certain, but he was also essentially a 1st round pick, and you could argue a good number of prospects drafted below him look better than him right now.

I personally would avoid D+1 or D+2 guys unless they are truly special, and even then I think the first two rounds should not be used on them at all unless they are exceptional. All of the guys should get strong consideration, but besides Durzi (who may slip into the 2nd round but I wouldn't consider with anything higher than our 3rd) and Hollowell (who is a 4th or 5th round guy at best), none should be considered higher than like the 7th round. Taking D+1 guys down there is fine, because at least you could argue that taking first time eligible players down there is usually a crap shoot also and maybe taking a more certain bet is better than a total unknown (that and the fact that I think there is a weak crop is why I really am only interested in D+1 goalies in this draft this year). I don't have a list of D+1/2 guys taken, but typically the ones who turn into anything were well above average than a lot of guys selected in the year before, and even then they were knocked down a few rounds from what their skill set may have shown.

Really to sum things up, I think the Leafs just need to be selective when it comes to their over age guys. The overage guy needs to show some sort of growth or development that maybe was not present initially but has helped them stand out from their peers who maybe were draft previously. They can not just be "average", because then there are guys who are first time eligible who have a much better shot at being more than that. So even though it may be in the later rounds, the Leafs should avoid spending picks on guys like Vesey, Bobylev and Walker, because even though it is just the 5th or 6th round, the Leafs have been able to find guys with a lot more promise (really 3rd line was pushing it for all of them), or a lot more skill, than those guys have shown in their D+1 or D+2 years. I mean Jesper Bratt was taken after both Bobylev and Walker and he's already put up 30+ points in the NHL despite being a year or two younger than them. Kevin Labanc and Ondrej Kase already have over 100 NHL games and around 50 points before Vesey even got out of the NCAA. If I am taking an unknown, I'd rather that guy have a lot more promise and potential, and typically the overage guys have less than the guys who are first time eligible unless they did show that growth and development.

It's nice that the Leafs get a look at those guys though, because at least they got a first hand look at how they developed from one year to the next, and it's a good way to scout for AHL deals as well.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I will add, none of the guys invited to the rookie tournament roster look good enough to draft: Coskey, Smart, Duquette, etc.

Coskey is someone who could be interesting on an AHL deal in a couple of years though. The hard working type Babcock likes, but not someone you should be taking with a draft pick.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Alec Rauhauser may be in line for an ELC. 95 LHD who is 6'3", 216 lbs and went almost a PPG last year. Grant Hutton may also earn an ELC. 22 points in 33 games. RHD 95'. Unsure if the Leafs would be interested though; they have a good number of older guys as it is and neither of them scream "special" really. Rauhauser might though.

McIndoe like Coskey is someone who could be worth an AHL deal.

Rueschhoff is a big center who is worth keeping an eye on for future years as a FA or AHL deal.

Gustafsson is someone to look out for from the SHL in the future (as a UFA), but not worth a DP.

Turkulainen is scoring in the Liiga, but I am not sure he's really good enough to be worth a DP either. Needs to be multi-dimensional to make up for lack of size, because he's not that elite. Plenty guys out of Europe have done what he's done before, and have not gotten anywhere.

Maksimovich is a good AHL contract candidate after next year.

Taro Hirose may have the best shot to earn an ELC from the Leafs. Small stature center who is a 96, but put up 42 points in 36 games last year. Still highly unlikely though, since there are better options elsewhere.

The rest either are not that great, or have already been mentioned. Some of them may be worth AHL deals, but nothing noteworthy IMO.

 

[DraftGuru]

Alec Rauhauser may be in line for an ELC. 95 LHD who is 6'3", 216 lbs and went almost a PPG last year. Grant Hutton may also earn an ELC. 22 points in 33 games. RHD 95'. Unsure if the Leafs would be interested though; they have a good number of older guys as it is and neither of them scream "special" really. Rauhauser might though.

McIndoe like Coskey is someone who could be worth an AHL deal.

Rueschhoff is a big center who is worth keeping an eye on for future years as a FA or AHL deal.

Gustafsson is someone to look out for from the SHL in the future (as a UFA), but not worth a DP.

Turkulainen is scoring in the Liiga, but I am not sure he's really good enough to be worth a DP either. Needs to be multi-dimensional to make up for lack of size, because he's not that elite. Plenty guys out of Europe have done what he's done before, and have not gotten anywhere.

Maksimovich is a good AHL contract candidate after next year.

Taro Hirose may have the best shot to earn an ELC from the Leafs. Small stature center who is a 96, but put up 42 points in 36 games last year. Still highly unlikely though, since there are better options elsewhere.

The rest either are not that great, or have already been mentioned. Some of them may be worth AHL deals, but nothing noteworthy IMO.

Any love for Joey Keane as a D+1 in the late rounds of 2018?