Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

Who is BPA available at 24?

  • Benoit-Oliver Groulx - C

  • Jacob Olofsson - C

  • Dominik Bokk - C

  • Ryan Merkley - RD

  • Rasmus Sandin - LD

  • Jett Woo -RD

  • Miller LD/Samuellsson LD/Thomas LW (3/8 appearances)

  • Liam Foudy - C


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WTFMAN99

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Interesting, most statistical models I've seen say trading down is the correct move

Makes draft day a little more interesting, now watch as we trade the bloody thing outright with a plus for a roster player

Thanks for that

It seems to me that Dubas may be making a push to trade up for Hayton.

Blog post is set to come out tomorrow morning to share the info I have. I obviously can't name sources because that would be...well...stupid of me.

Spoiler alert, no Hayton based on the information I was given. Trade down option is also possible though @Kiwi - the trade down option seems very similar to the guy they want to trade up for. In fact the odds of a trade down to me seem way higher then the trade up.
 
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Cor

I am a bot
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Blog post is set to come out tomorrow morning to share the info I have. I obviously can't name sources because that would be...well...stupid of me.

Spoiler alert, no Hayton based on the information I was given. Trade down option is also possible though @Kiwi - the trade down option seems very similar to the guy they want to trade up for. In fact the odds of a trade down to me seem way higher then the trade up.

So they might trade up, but will more likely trade down, but could stay where they are
 

Liminality

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Oct 22, 2008
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So they might trade up, but will more likely trade down, but could stay where they are
Sounds like all the bases are covered. What else could they do with the pick? Oh I know, there's a chance that they trade the pick for a player.
 

WTFMAN99

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Jun 17, 2009
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So they might trade up, but will more likely trade down, but could stay where they are

Ha, totally sounds like that right? When you attach the actual names to it, it will make more sense.

The trade up option seems pretty damn unlikely so I think we'd see the trade back option if I had to put money down.
 

Kiwi

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Blog post is set to come out tomorrow morning to share the info I have. I obviously can't name sources because that would be...well...stupid of me.

Spoiler alert, no Hayton based on the information I was given. Trade down option is also possible though @Kiwi - the trade down option seems very similar to the guy they want to trade up for. In fact the odds of a trade down to me seem way higher then the trade up.

Thanks for that mate

I always enjoy reading you and Daisy at your site
 

WTFMAN99

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Jun 17, 2009
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Thanks for that mate

I always enjoy reading you and Daisy at your site

Appreciate it. I don't get a lot of information but when I do, I try to share it. This particular post makes me a touch more nervous because the draft has a ton of variables to it and all it takes is a team to snag these players right before us and I look stupid but it's out of my control. I think i'd also be a bit skeptical if I saw a random blogger just lay out names like I am going to do for likely Leafs draft picks.

Best thing I can always say is I was on these boards with you all way before I started the blog and think that you guys know what kind of person I am at this point. I don't like BS around much and hate rumor mongers as much as the next guy so I try to make it clear when I am posting my opinion, commenting on existing rumors (like from TSN or Friedman) or "This is what I heard..."

The draft post will definitely be based on information I was given but the source is great so I am comfortable in posting it.
 

Stigma

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May 24, 2015
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Appreciate it. I don't get a lot of information but when I do, I try to share it. This particular post makes me a touch more nervous because the draft has a ton of variables to it and all it takes is a team to snag these players right before us and I look stupid but it's out of my control. I think i'd also be a bit skeptical if I saw a random blogger just lay out names like I am going to do for likely Leafs draft picks.

Best thing I can always say is I was on these boards with you all way before I started the blog and think that you guys know what kind of person I am at this point. I don't like BS around much and hate rumor mongers as much as the next guy so I try to make it clear when I am posting my opinion, commenting on existing rumors (like from TSN or Friedman) or "This is what I heard..."

The draft post will definitely be based on information I was given but the source is great so I am comfortable in posting it.

Interesting stuff! And you were bang on before with your blog, so I don't doubt anything you say. Actually, I'm happy that we finally have an insider here!

So, basically, they have one or two guys in mind, and these guys vary on draft lists. My guess is that these guys rank from the early 20's to the early 40's. (thus the trade down or trade up options)

I like that they pinpointed a guy. Sounds bold. My guess (and, of course, i know you can't answer): O'Brien, Merkley, or Wise, as those three meet the criteria of being ranked all over the place.
 

cookie

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There's so many good looking players from ~25 to ~40 that it makes tons of sense to trade back. Pick up two of Wise, Merkley, Sandin, Tychonick, or Beaudin and develop them for the long haul. Even if you get your guy, realistically, the chances are stacked against you this far into the draft anyways.

Wise may be longer project but his skill level is undeniable and he plays center to boot. It's NCAA or we could let him follow Bracco's path.
Merkley's selection is up to the scouting staff. Fans are not privy to what happens behind the scenes and I'd like to avoid the kind of guy who destroys a dressing room. Maybe let Snow waste his pick on him...

Tychonick is bound for the NCAA program, which should help flesh out his game and give the team a better understanding. He's not in the same conversation as Smith or Addison but that's a risk you have to make. It's entirely possible neither of the aforementioned defenders even show up to 25.

Fact is that maybe one or two players from this part of the draft (25 onward) will play NHL hockey next year. And chances are that their first taste of NHL hockey, if it is written for them, will come later on. Going for college guys should help clear spots from the 50-man roster.
 
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Peasy

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There's so many good looking players from ~25 to ~40 that it makes tons of sense to trade back. Pick up two of Wise, Merkley, Sandin, Tychonick, or Beaudin and develop them for the long haul. Even if you get your guy, realistically, the chances are stacked against you this far into the draft anyways.

Wise may be longer project but his skill level is undeniable and he plays center to boot. It's NCAA or we could let him follow Bracco's path.
Merkley's selection is up to the scouting staff. Fans are not privy to what happens behind the scenes and I'd like to avoid the kind of guy who destroys a dressing room. Maybe let Snow waste his pick on him...

Tychonick is bound for the NCAA program, which should help flesh out his game and give the team a better understanding. He's not in the same conversation as Smith or Addison but that's a risk you have to make. It's entirely possible neither of the aforementioned defenders even show up to 25.

Fact is that maybe one or two players from this part of the draft (25 onward) will play NHL hockey next year. And chances are that their first taste of NHL hockey, if it is written for them, will come later on. Going for college guys should help clear spots from the 50-man roster.
Snow is no longer a GM.
 

Stand Witness

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Interesting, most statistical models I've seen say trading down is the correct move

Makes draft day a little more interesting, now watch as we trade the bloody thing outright with a plus for a roster player



Thanks for that

The correct move on paper will almost always be to trade down because values are assigned to picks based on NHL outcomes. The only way it makes sense with a model to trade up is if you also use the model to do so.

But those models don't take into account the perceived tiers in each draft which do actually hold value that is independent from year to year. I am sure that our department has the resources to develop some sort of valuation model based on their rankings each year.
 
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Stigma

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Now that I think about it, Dellandrea and Alexeyev have also had huge variation in their ranking. Hopefully, these guys are on their target list.

Gut feeling though - it's Merkley.
 

SprDaVE

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Sep 20, 2008
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I can't believe Kevin Bahl is in the top 50 on McKenzies rankings. Absolutely bonkers. That means there are scouts that rate him probably in the top 40.
 

Garlando

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I can't believe Kevin Bahl is in the top 50 on McKenzies rankings. Absolutely bonkers. That means there are scouts that rate him probably in the top 40.
He got a pretty darn glowing review from Brock Otten at OHL Prospects:

11. Kevin Bahl - Defense - Ottawa 67's
Love this kid. Behemoth 6'6, 230lbs defender who is a hybrid between being a pure throwback to the Derian Hatcher/Chris Pronger era, and a modern defender who can make quick decisions and move the puck. Thought he was Canada's best defender at the U18's this year, where his terrific work in his own end was on full display. The one thing I love about Bahl is how good his agility is for a big man in the defensive end. Lateral and backwards mobility are solid. So you've got this huge 6'6 reach, but he's also able to recover and stay with attackers as they drive the net. Also helps him recover loose pucks and dump ins quickly. Over the course of the second half, we really saw him start to use his size physically too. Becoming a lot tougher to play against and could be an absolute beast in the defensive end, if he isn't already. Offensively, he's better than he's given credit for. He's never going to win a scoring title, but his decision making with the puck in the defensive end has greatly improved, as has his exit pass. So good at preventing offenses from setting up their attack, because he's able to seal off forecheckers from getting to dump ins, and then makes a quick outlet to a wing to start the breakout. That -21 this year certainly isn't pretty, but I don't think it's indicative of his d-zone ability. He's smart in the offensive zone too. This guy's goals at the Hlinka, Top Prospect's Game, and the U18's were no fluke. He anticipates the play really well and as he gains confidence in his puck skill and shot, I think we'll see him take more chances and increase his offensive output. I just don't think you can argue against how well he's played when the stakes have been raised. Personally like Bahl better than Logan Stanley as an NHL prospect.
 
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67Cup

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If Mark Hunter were still in charge of the Leafs’ draft ...
Two players who might have been a good bet for the Leafs:
Yegor Sharangovich, double overager, big two way centre already playing well in the KHL, 6’2, 196, performed well at the WJC

Adam Samuelsson, D, USNDTP, 6’5.75, 240 lbs., moderately productive, very strong.

Thise sound like Hunter picks to me., But maybe it was an organizational philosophy, not just a Hunter tendncy.
 

SprDaVE

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Sep 20, 2008
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He got a pretty darn glowing review from Brock Otten at OHL Prospects:

"Throwback to the Pronger era" ??????????????????????????????????? What does that mean? We're talking about the same Kevin Bahl here?!?!

I live in Ottawa and I've seen him plenty of times. Unless I've seen all his bad games, his puck handling abilities are awful and while he's able to win puck battles against players half his size and weight, the projection of that in the NHL is hardly going to be noticeable if he can't handle the puck.

He's a big project and ranking him in the 2nd round is questionable to say the least. Just my opinion though. I've been wrong before.
 
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SprDaVE

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Pronman released his mock draft:

Corey Pronman's 2018 NHL Mock Draft: Who's selected after...

To no surprise, he has us picking Ryan Merkley at #25.

25. Toronto: Ryan Merkley, D, Guelph-OHL
Merkley’s eventual landing destination has become an over-discussed topic. Every NHL person tells me it’s going to be a team with two first rounders that takes him. It could be Toronto whose new management will likely highly value game breaking talent. I suspect it will be in this range plus or minus 10 picks.
 

Judas Tavares

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I just foresee a bad situation if Merkley indeed shows to have immaturity to his game and then the media turns on. That would be storm.
 
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SprDaVE

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I just foresee a bad situation if Merkley indeed shows to have immaturity to his game and then the media turns on. That would be storm.

Some players figure it out, some don't. I think this is where the interview process is crucial. I read that he got so much better after his last suspension by the Guelph Storm. Not sure how accurate that is though and it certainly didn't help his ranking.

I've been very open here about selecting Merkley and I think the upside outweighs the risks, but I'm also very aware there are other prospects that have plenty of upside. It's a tough call to me.
 

Liminality

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Oct 22, 2008
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Some players figure it out, some don't. I think this is where the interview process is crucial.

I've been very open here about selecting Merkley and I think the upside outweighs the risks, but I'm also very aware there are other prospects that have plenty of upside. It's a tough call to me.
Definitely, everyone keeps saying he has top 5 skill and skating. Would be quite the project to try and make him more than a powerplay specialist with temper tantrums. That boom potential is massive though if you can make it work.
 

LeafGrief

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Apr 10, 2015
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At this point I'm starting to think that the Athletic is putting Merkley as our pick just for clicks. I get that Wheeler and Pronman are high on the kid, but putting him in at 25 in just about every publication they put out is bordering on clickbait.


Some players figure it out, some don't. I think this is where the interview process is crucial. I read that he got so much better after his last suspension by the Guelph Storm. Not sure how accurate that is though and it certainly didn't help his ranking.

I've been very open here about selecting Merkley and I think the upside outweighs the risks, but I'm also very aware there are other prospects that have plenty of upside. It's a tough call to me.

Check out the backchecking effort in game 6 of the playoffs with his team down two goals and three minutes to go. Clip starts at 2:52
HIGHLIGHTS: Rangers vs. Storm – Apr. 1st, 2018 – Kitchener Rangers

The pinch was fine, his team desperately needed the offense and he's the guy to create it. Even if he backs off, it's a 3 on 2. High risk but a high reward play, I have no problems with a prospect making a pinch like that in a desperate playoff situation. But what on earth is that backcheck? Merkley is one of the best skaters in the draft and he casually glides into the picture when the puck is going in the net. Zero effort when his team's season is on the line. Maybe he's less of a problem in the dressing room and doesn't mouth off at his coaches since he was suspended, but his play on the ice still reflects an enormous attitude problem.
 
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Brobust

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Sep 29, 2017
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Bob McKenzie has Bode Wilde ranked 25th.

This is an opportunity to trade down and pick up the much better Merkley.

IMO, Wilde and Merkley basically have the same strengths and weaknesses. But Wilde has the edge in terms of size and no behavioural issues. Merkley has the edge in offence, and is probably one of the best offensive d-men in this draft and even in the previous couple of drafts.

Let someone else pay the leafs to draft Wilde and draft the much better Merkley instead.
 
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