He's most definitely projected to be a 1C. He isn't going to be McDavid, but if you'd turn down someone like Anze Kopitar as your 1C, you'd be a fool.
Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Draft
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He's most definitely projected to be a 1C. He isn't going to be McDavid, but if you'd turn down someone like Anze Kopitar as your 1C, you'd be a fool.
bellringer77
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You would look even more a fool reaching because of a "comparable" and he busts. We need a defenseman with the first pick. trade up? sure. I'm not into reaching with finally getting higher picks
The problem with your argument is he's really turning into a consensus top 10 pick. Bob McKenzie's list, Craig Button's list, Corey Pronman's list all have him as a top 10 pick. Beyond the top 2 or 3, the rest of the top 10 has been considered a complete crapshoot. You've seen the varying opinions on the Red Wings based threads of people arguing between Boqvist and Bouchard and Dobson and Hughes. Wahlstrom and Tkachuk have gotten love at the forward position. With how Kotkaniemi has been viewed as raising his stock, he absolutely is in the conversation. I don't consider it a reach to take an emerging consensus top 10 pick and best center in the draft at #6 in a draft where nobody knows what to expect.
I'm not basing my decision off of a comparable, rather what he's capable of. But even if I were, how does me saying "Kotkaniemi's game reminds me Kopitar" make a player busting mean anything more than "Kotkaniemi is a strong, high IQ center that is a solid defender and excels as a playmaker," or even "Bouchard is the offensive minded defenseman that can run a powerplay that we've needed for so long"? One is a list of things a player does well, the other is a current player that embodies the things the player does well.
And no, we don't NEED a defenseman with the first pick. We NEED a player with front line talent; whether it's a top line winger, a top line center, or a top pairing defenseman, it doesn't matter. Get whatever player the scouting team has determined is the best player for the organization.
bellringer77
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Definitely valid points. I didn't come across good enough as I meant it more as an opinion. I just see what we have on D for the depth charts and we don't have anything close to what's available. But when I look at offense I see way more positives on that front. My opinion is that if we don't take a dman with 6 I personally will be disappointed.
I think that the D prospects are going to get a little boost based on the comments from management recently, so I'm inclined to think you'll leave satisfied. I will be happy with any pick as long as Holland can look us in the eye and say "we picked the player we think will be best for us." As long as he doesn't say "well we liked a lot of the forwards, but we were committed to taking D," I won't lose my mind.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
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Brock Otten released his top 10 OHL prospects with write-ups:
OHL Prospects: My Final Top 50 OHL Players for the 2018 NHL Entry Draft - Part 4: 10-1
Here is his write-up on Bouchard:
2. Evan Bouchard - Defense - London Knights
Have to admit, I thought Bouchard should have won the Max Kaminsky trophy this year as the league's top defenseman (and that's not meant to be offensive to Nic Hague who also had a terrific year). I just look at what Bouchard was able to do with such a young team through the 2nd half, as the captain, and think it deserved more respect. His 87 points were the most for a first time draft eligible defender since Ryan Ellis put up 89 in his. His ability to start the breakout is his best asset, with his vision off the rush and his booming point shot a close 2nd and 3rd. Bouchard just has unreal vision from the defensive end and pinpoint accuracy with his stretch passes. When he's on the ice, the Knights can go from being under attack in the defensive end to a 3 on 1 within a matter of seconds thanks to Bouchard's ability to get the puck out. While he does lack the top end speed you'd like to see from a dynamic puck rusher in the NHL, his agility and puck protection ability (thanks to his 6'2 frame) are top notch and allows him to evade forecheckers and carve through the neutral zone extremely effectively. Bouchard also is a terrific powerplay QB, because he is a duel threat. Defenders have to respect his booming point shot and his vision and passing ability, which is a dangerous combination. Do you overplay him to take away his shot at risk of him exploiting a hole in coverage, or do you give him the shot and have trust in your goaltender? Defensively, Bouchard is solid positionally and in getting his stick in passing lanes. But he definitely needs to increase his intensity level in the defensive end, particularly below the hash marks. He can be too soft on forwards near the crease and needs to do a better job taking away space from the opposition and winning more tough battles behind the net. Is he going to be a top notch #1 defender? I'm not entirely sure he has that skill set. But can he be a solid #2 or #3 who can lead your powerplay and eat big minutes? Absolutely.
OHL Prospects: My Final Top 50 OHL Players for the 2018 NHL Entry Draft - Part 4: 10-1
Here is his write-up on Bouchard:
2. Evan Bouchard - Defense - London Knights
Have to admit, I thought Bouchard should have won the Max Kaminsky trophy this year as the league's top defenseman (and that's not meant to be offensive to Nic Hague who also had a terrific year). I just look at what Bouchard was able to do with such a young team through the 2nd half, as the captain, and think it deserved more respect. His 87 points were the most for a first time draft eligible defender since Ryan Ellis put up 89 in his. His ability to start the breakout is his best asset, with his vision off the rush and his booming point shot a close 2nd and 3rd. Bouchard just has unreal vision from the defensive end and pinpoint accuracy with his stretch passes. When he's on the ice, the Knights can go from being under attack in the defensive end to a 3 on 1 within a matter of seconds thanks to Bouchard's ability to get the puck out. While he does lack the top end speed you'd like to see from a dynamic puck rusher in the NHL, his agility and puck protection ability (thanks to his 6'2 frame) are top notch and allows him to evade forecheckers and carve through the neutral zone extremely effectively. Bouchard also is a terrific powerplay QB, because he is a duel threat. Defenders have to respect his booming point shot and his vision and passing ability, which is a dangerous combination. Do you overplay him to take away his shot at risk of him exploiting a hole in coverage, or do you give him the shot and have trust in your goaltender? Defensively, Bouchard is solid positionally and in getting his stick in passing lanes. But he definitely needs to increase his intensity level in the defensive end, particularly below the hash marks. He can be too soft on forwards near the crease and needs to do a better job taking away space from the opposition and winning more tough battles behind the net. Is he going to be a top notch #1 defender? I'm not entirely sure he has that skill set. But can he be a solid #2 or #3 who can lead your powerplay and eat big minutes? Absolutely.
waltdetroit
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Just an FYI...Bob's lists are a composite of scouts' opinion of the order prospects will be picked & not a list of who's a better player. And he does acknowledge there is some "fudging" by the scouts but feels that it works out because he has so many participants.
Maybe a moot point
Maybe a moot point
HisNoodliness
The Karate Kid and ASP Kai
Just because he plays a game similar to Kopitar doesn't mean he'll be as good as him. Boqvist is the spitting image of young Karlsson, no one is projecting him as a super-star 1D and picking him over Dahlin because being comparable to a player doesn't mean you'll develop as well as they did. I don't think I've seen anyone that projects Kotkaniemi as a 1C. Even if some think he has that upside, it's very far from a definite. A definite 1C, Anze Kopitar style player would challenge Dahlin for first overall. Kotkaniemi is slated to go 10-15 because he projects to be a middle 6 C. Which is still great, perhaps he exceeds that expectation, perhaps he doesn't even reach it, but if you're expecting him to turn into Kopitar... you're probably going to be disappointed.
I don't buy that he's Kopitar at all, nor do I buy into a guy with skating questions as a 1C.
bellringer77
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Agreed. I just believe that if Bouchard or Dobson is available at 6 that they are the best players available.
Lil Sebastian Cossa
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If we're taking Kotkaniemi in the first, it had better be a situation where Dobson, Hughes, Bouchard, and Boqvist all came off the board and Zadina,Tkachuk, Wahlstrom all shattered their vertebrae simultaneously.
Or we trade back a few picks and get like 8th or 9th, a defense prospect (who isn't a marginal one), and something else.
We are not in a draft slot where Kotkaniemi makes sense if everything stays as it is and happens as expected. I don't care if he's comparable to Kopitar, he's Jesperi Kotkaniemi. I mean, Boqvist is comparable to someone awesome, so is Bouchard, so is whoever.
Or we trade back a few picks and get like 8th or 9th, a defense prospect (who isn't a marginal one), and something else.
We are not in a draft slot where Kotkaniemi makes sense if everything stays as it is and happens as expected. I don't care if he's comparable to Kopitar, he's Jesperi Kotkaniemi. I mean, Boqvist is comparable to someone awesome, so is Bouchard, so is whoever.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
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For f*cks sake can everyone stop using "projection" and "expectation" like they mean the same thing? Projections speculate what could happen if things play out in a given scenario, in this case, the best case scenario. Expectations speculate what should happen based on a strong belief or level of certainty. Nobody is saying Kotkaniemi is a surefire 1C. Projections with assessing draft picks are always going to be compared to high end players. Who the hell is going to draft a player in the first round if scouts are saying, "his skill reminds me of Darren Helm"? You are looking to find the next superstar, so why not find the best players who display the same characteristics? Dahlin isn't a surefire cornerstone defenseman, but it's the fact that he could be that has everyone excited.
If you haven't seen anyone speaking of Kotkaniemi in high regard, you aren't looking hard enough. Pronman's last article literally said, "He has the best shot of any prospect in this draft class to be a No. 1 center." Will he make it? Who knows, but the fact that the potential of growing into a player in the mold of Kopitar is what makes him worth a top 10 pick.
Nobody is telling you to buy into it, but acknowledge the similarities and understand why the comparison exists. I know he isn't going to skate like McDavid, but I haven't seen anything that says he is below average. It sounds more like Bouchard's situation with his skating; he isn't an elite skater, but he's an average skater at the very worst.
Lil Sebastian Cossa
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As a player he makes sense. But does he make more sense than Bouchard/Dobson/Hughes/Boqvist/Wahlstrom/Tkachuk, etc?
He'll probably be a fine player and I'd love to have him... but I want one of the top flight D prospects or something more. Like I'm a fan of steak, but I also like hamburgers. Given the choice between a well cooked steak and a well cooked hamburger at dinnertime, I'd go with the steak the vast majority of the time. It's not that I'm against Kotkaniemi, but I just don't see him being ranked over any of the D for us. For him to make sense value wise for us, I'd need us to be at a pick beteween 9 and 12. There are just too many talented D who WILL be on the board for us for me to go with a guy ranked below them.
He'll probably be a fine player and I'd love to have him... but I want one of the top flight D prospects or something more. Like I'm a fan of steak, but I also like hamburgers. Given the choice between a well cooked steak and a well cooked hamburger at dinnertime, I'd go with the steak the vast majority of the time. It's not that I'm against Kotkaniemi, but I just don't see him being ranked over any of the D for us. For him to make sense value wise for us, I'd need us to be at a pick beteween 9 and 12. There are just too many talented D who WILL be on the board for us for me to go with a guy ranked below them.
Why should I acknowledge things I directly disagreed with? I think it's a stupid way to use our pick. Repeating Kopitar over and over isn't really a counter argument or a discussion point.
HisNoodliness
The Karate Kid and ASP Kai
To be honest, I disagree with your definition of projection. To me projection and expectation are synonyms. Your definition is more in line with what I'd call upside, "optimistic projection" or as you said best case scenario. If you say projection without the modifier "optimistic" or something like that, then I think it's reasonable to assume it's the most likely result and not an optimistic one.
Here's the first dictionary definition of projection (which lists expectation as a synonym):
an estimate or forecast of a future situation or trend based on a study of present ones.
"plans based on projections of slow but positive growth"
| synonyms: | forecast, prediction, prognosis, outlook, expectation, estimate |
Taking out the word projection altogether, I agree that if everything fell well for Kotkaniemi he could be a 1C. I definitely see people saying that. I just don't think anyone expects him to be that. I think it's more likely that Bouchard, Dobson, Boqvist and Hughes become 1D than Kotkaniemi a 1C so I'd prefer them to him at 6. If we trade up and Kotkaniemi is there, I'd be happy with that pick, just not at 6.
I know you disagree with it, I'm not trying to change your mind. I'm saying you should try being less dense and understand why other people are making the comparisons. It's okay to occasionally try to understand where other people are coming from to have meaningful conversation.
All you've brought to the table is that you doubt his skating and don't like a comparison, but I'm the one who can't discuss things? I listed actual aspects of his play style and what he excels at in addition to the commonly used comparison to support my argument. You want more? A 1C is more important than any other position on the ice (my opinion). Forwards have a history of being easier to project, so I have a higher level of comfort that Kotkaniemi can be a legitimate top 6 center than I do with any available defenseman panning out to be a legitimate top pairing defenseman. He's already been relied on as a top 6 player in a men's league as a 17 year old.
All that said and he still isn't my first choice.
Wouldn't be the first time there was a miscommunication here. To me expectation is a baseline that you are setting to assess performance and success. It's impossible to put expectations on 17 and 18 year old kids at this point. Projection is more of a forward thinking process where you are looking what could be, but it certainly isn't an absolute. I apologize for the rant.
My last post touches on this topic, I think Kotkaniemi has a better chance of hitting the mark at this point, but the ceilings of some of those defenseman are probably higher. It's a give and take. I wouldn't be able to fault the organization either way.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
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Well it's pretty obvious what our biggest need is. So I am working under the assumption they would only draft Kotkaniemi if they not only think he is the BPA, but BPA by a decent gap.
Center depth is never a bad thing. Even if you think Rasmussen is a lock to be a 2C, if Kotkaniemi develops well and has the talent to warrant picking him at #6, then you either are very strong down the middle or you have a very nice trade chip. I'm not really understanding hamburger in your analogy here.. Are centers hamburgers? Or is he a hamburger because you don't think he is a good prospect?
My ideal plan is to draft a defenseman with our top pick this year, and then next year hopefully we draft top 3-5 and pick a center like Hughes or Lavoie. So I don't know it would be the worst thing if we do it in reverse order. More than anything we just need to add blue chip prospects and come up with elite talent.
In your comments to me, the only thing you've done is compare him to Kopitar and tell me his skating is average. The remainder of your recent comments to other posters were, essentially, summaries of scouting lists. It's not compelling. Calling me stupid for not reading between your lines and agreeing with you isn't productive, nor is telling me that I only disagree because I'm not 'try[ing] to understand where other people are coming from'.
Whatever, if you like him, go for it. I think he'd never play above the 2nd line, and I think that's a massive waste of a draft pick in a draft full of a need the team has had and proven incapable of filling for longer than a large number of posters here have been alive.
HisNoodliness
The Karate Kid and ASP Kai
Fair enough, your definition is reasonable. Just not exactly how I see things. Miscommunications are indeed common. Don't worry about the rant. It's not a problem.
I guess the heart of the problem lies at how we see Kotkaniemi. I personlly think that the 4 top 10D are more likely to be top line players and have higher upside and floors (Boqvist's floor is probably lower). But to be honest I just rate them as better prospects. It's not a knock on Kotkaniemi. I think the Kopitar comparison is pretty fair. I just am pretty high on those D.
I don't even think there's a problem at all, this is just the nature of the beast. You are a bit more rooted in your belief that the D options are better than Kotkaniemi and I'm a little more passive going back and forth seeing the positives of both options. This is probably the exact type of conversation, if not even more tense, that Kenny is sitting in on routinely this time of year, listening to the back and forth, trying to make sense of it all.
Lil Sebastian Cossa
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Looking back at it, I regret using that analogy.
I guess what I was driving at is that while I like Kotkaniemi and think he's a good player and prospect, he loses out in BPA to me for any of the four defensemen on the board as well as losing out in terms of being a need as well.
I would absolutely love to get Kotkaniemi... but I wouldn't be willing to forgo Quinton Hughes, Evan Bouchard, or Noah Dobson for him. I'd also rather have Oliver Wahlstrom over him.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
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Yeah, and I was just playing devil's advocate with that post... I also am gunning for one of those defenseman. But I do get the feeling Kotkaniemi is being undervalued in this draft a little, he is probably the top center, and Pronman did recently rank him #4. I am curious to see where he comes in with Bob's final ranking in June.
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