Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Draft

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WingsMJN2965

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Whoever DRWs draft with their 1st pick, do you think they'll focus on the best player to get the Larkin treatment and jumps straight to the NHL?

Larkin played a year at Michigan before making the jump.

They have 1 top 6 center going into the 2020 season right now, and he's looking to be a second line center. This team is pretty desperately in need of centers.

Compare that to zero top tier defenders. Then consider that this is a rare draft that's deep in top potential defenders. There's absolutely zero reason Detroit should be drafting anything other than defense in the first round, unless they're picking #2.
 

Shaman464

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Larkin played a year at Michigan before making the jump.



Compare that to zero top tier defenders. Then consider that this is a rare draft that's deep in top potential defenders. There's absolutely zero reason Detroit should be drafting anything other than defense in the first round, unless they're picking #2.

They have the equivalent of middle pairing d-men for centers. And at the bottom of the first round there aren't any slam dunk d prospects.
 

jkutswings

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They have the equivalent of middle pairing d-men for centers. And at the bottom of the first round there aren't any slam dunk d prospects.
They have the equivalent of 4th pairing d-men for much of their blue line. Both areas definitely need help, but they're way overdue to put some heavy resources into defense.

And they're on track to have high picks in at least the next 2-3 drafts. And statistically, those next drafts should have a higher ratio of forwards to defensemen near the top, so grab the better position of 2018 (D) this time, and grab the likely better position of 2019 (C/W) next time.
 

WingsMJN2965

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They have the equivalent of middle pairing d-men for centers. And at the bottom of the first round there aren't any slam dunk d prospects.

Virtual guarantee that they do not land a #1C anywhere in this draft with a late 1st round pick, and Larkin looks to be an elite 2C, with Rasmussen as backup plan. So unless they're getting an elite potential center, they're farther ahead to shoot for the moon on a D prospect and at the very least they'll hopefully hit the stars.
 
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Shaman464

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They have the equivalent of 4th pairing d-men for much of their blue line. Both areas definitely need help, but they're way overdue to put some heavy resources into defense.

And they're on track to have high picks in at least the next 2-3 drafts. And statistically, those next drafts should have a higher ratio of forwards to defensemen near the top, so grab the better position of 2018 (D) this time, and grab the likely better position of 2019 (C/W) next time.

This myopic view in my mind is how we get to hear 5 years from now about a steal that everyone missed that turned into a top player. Reading about this draft there is a lot of group think a year out that could easily be wrong about what was actually strong this draft. The problem in the last decade of Detroit drafting has been exactly the same problem people are having right now: Falling into the group think mentality. The overwhelming opinion of all the analysts has been big and fast, but yet we see a lot of small, not particularly fast players emerging as great players and a lot of teams got burned. Why? Because instead of actually doing the leg work everyone just followed a trend. Right now is the time where Detroit can afford to try to think outside the box again, like it did 15 years ago when everyone touted Detroit as the team that could pull elite players out of any round. Instead of following a trend Detroit will need to prioritize actually finding and developing players that aren't the what would be the sexiest pick.
 

Frk It

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This myopic view in my mind is how we get to hear 5 years from now about a steal that everyone missed that turned into a top player. Reading about this draft there is a lot of group think a year out that could easily be wrong about what was actually strong this draft. The problem in the last decade of Detroit drafting has been exactly the same problem people are having right now: Falling into the group think mentality

You're gonna die by the sword of your opinion that we should draft a center this year, huh?

Draft boards have leaked from teams, and you always see a huge variance in what they have versus the rankings we all look at. I don't really think they get caught up in groupthink at all.
 
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This myopic view in my mind is how we get to hear 5 years from now about a steal that everyone missed that turned into a top player. Reading about this draft there is a lot of group think a year out that could easily be wrong about what was actually strong this draft. The problem in the last decade of Detroit drafting has been exactly the same problem people are having right now: Falling into the group think mentality. The overwhelming opinion of all the analysts has been big and fast, but yet we see a lot of small, not particularly fast players emerging as great players and a lot of teams got burned. Why? Because instead of actually doing the leg work everyone just followed a trend. Right now is the time where Detroit can afford to try to think outside the box again, like it did 15 years ago when everyone touted Detroit as the team that could pull elite players out of any round. Instead of following a trend Detroit will need to prioritize actually finding and developing players that aren't the what would be the sexiest pick.
It feels a lot like you have a particular player in mind. Somebody slow, small, and skilled. Who do you think they should take? Or are you saying the Wings should take a gamble on a slow, small, skilled player regardless of who it is? I'm a little confused.

As an aside, I don't really view the Wings as participating in the league-wide groupthink. They draft a fair amount of players the pundits would not even touch. Ex: Rasmussen, Bertuzzi, Zablocki, all those big defensemen last draft. Tons of Detroit drafts in the last 10 years have been graded as poor drafts. So they're not exactly darlings of the popular hockey media for their draft selections.

For those of us who are critical of the Wings' drafting, many of us are actually critical on the grounds that the Wings ignore league-wide drafting trends like puck-moving defensemen for years on end, only to have to play catchup later on. Part of why many of us were angry about this past draft was because we viewed it as the Wings investing draft picks in a style of play that does not exist now, and may not exist later, either.
 
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Shaman464

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You're gonna die by the sword of your opinion that we should draft a center this year, huh?

Draft boards have leaked from teams, and you always see a huge variance in what they have versus the rankings we all look at. I don't really think they get caught up in groupthink at all.
My sword is that they should draft a d-man in the top half of the draft and if they happen to land a late first them they should go for best player available that isn't a winger. If a highly rated d prospect falls grab him but if you have a center that falls or you have a c and d that look equal if you have to take a gamble than maybe a center is a good bet.
 

Reddwit

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This myopic view in my mind is how we get to hear 5 years from now about a steal that everyone missed that turned into a top player. Reading about this draft there is a lot of group think a year out that could easily be wrong about what was actually strong this draft. The problem in the last decade of Detroit drafting has been exactly the same problem people are having right now: Falling into the group think mentality. The overwhelming opinion of all the analysts has been big and fast, but yet we see a lot of small, not particularly fast players emerging as great players and a lot of teams got burned. Why? Because instead of actually doing the leg work everyone just followed a trend. Right now is the time where Detroit can afford to try to think outside the box again, like it did 15 years ago when everyone touted Detroit as the team that could pull elite players out of any round. Instead of following a trend Detroit will need to prioritize actually finding and developing players that aren't the what would be the sexiest pick.

You think we hear about steals because of some myopic view/groupthink? That seems extremely critical of scouts. Like Frk It said, draft boards are leaked every year and they vary quiet a bit while also deviating from scouting services. Not to mention, the only trend in recent years that was arguably groupthink that caused some "steals" (and I put that in scare quotes because most of those guys didn't fall far before teams scooped them up) was the Russian scare. I mean, where was the groupthink that made guys like Simmonds and Benn drop? They're timeless NHL players. Small guys like Baertschi and Murphy were drafted top 15 in a year where Gaudreau dropped to the 4th round. And that wasn't too too many years after Kane was drafted #1 overall. The same year that Gostisbehere dropped because the guy was (and still kind of is) a beanpole, Parayko dropped even further!

And who are the small but not particularly fast players emerging as great? None come to mind off the top of my head (other than Hudler, but he isn't emerging) but Im also feeling lazy and dont want to look any up.

And Detroit may have thought "outside the box" 15 years ago (more like 20) but that's because the international landscape was different back then. What do you suggest thinking outside the box looks like now?
 

Rzombo4 prez

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Nob had Robert Thomas in the top 50 in January.
I had him pegged as a potential Wings pick at 9 - even if he was lower in the rankings.
Today he's an 18 year old center on Canada's WJC team. He's tearing up the OHL while playing great two-way hockey.

At the end of the day, skill set, scouting reports and video matter as much to me as stats and rankings (where there sure seems to be a lot of follow the leader).

Robert Thomas was the 30th ranked NA skater in the central scouting midterm rankings. You are lying to yourself if you think people didn't know who he was this time last season. As good as his season has been to date, he still projects as a middle-six center at the NHL level. If you are expecting the second coming of Sydney Crosby you are going to be disappointed.

I would love to hear who you feel is trending towards a top-ten, end-of-season ranking at the center position. I want to know who I am missing (apart from the Finns as I mentioned). I agree that there is a lot of hockey to be played, but the players on the up have already begun their ascent.
 

Redder Winger

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Robert Thomas was the 30th ranked NA skater in the central scouting midterm rankings. You are lying to yourself if you think people didn't know who he was this time last season. As good as his season has been to date, he still projects as a middle-six center at the NHL level. If you are expecting the second coming of Sydney Crosby you are going to be disappointed.

I would love to hear who you feel is trending towards a top-ten, end-of-season ranking at the center position. I want to know who I am missing (apart from the Finns as I mentioned). I agree that there is a lot of hockey to be played, but the players on the up have already begun their ascent.

I'm saying that we're in December.
Last year in December Liljegren was still being talked about as a top 5 pick.
Just as players can fall out, players can rise.


I don't know who that guy is yet. I've not yet sunk my teeth into this draft at all.
But there's no way in hell I'm writing off every center in the draft on Dec. 16.
 

The Zetterberg Era

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It feels a lot like you have a particular player in mind. Somebody slow, small, and skilled. Who do you think they should take? Or are you saying the Wings should take a gamble on a slow, small, skilled player regardless of who it is? I'm a little confused.

As an aside, I don't really view the Wings as participating in the league-wide groupthink. They draft a fair amount of players the pundits would not even touch. Ex: Rasmussen, Bertuzzi, Zablocki, all those big defensemen last draft. Tons of Detroit drafts in the last 10 years have been graded as poor drafts. So they're not exactly darlings of the popular hockey media for their draft selections.

For those of us who are critical of the Wings' drafting, many of us are actually critical on the grounds that the Wings ignore league-wide drafting trends like puck-moving defensemen for years on end, only to have to play catchup later on. Part of why many of us were angry about this past draft was because we viewed it as the Wings investing draft picks in a style of play that does not exist now, and may not exist later, either.

The Wings are usually counter-culture. That has been a trademark since Ilitch bought the team. They signed free agent college players right away, scouted Europe when nobody cared to. They bounce between leagues that seem under-served. They want to go the areas they think people are not paying attention to, you can watch a trend where they start going to certain leagues for time periods. It is very easy to argue this struggle should be changing that thinking, but when watching their strategy for drafts they do seem to usually have a theme behind them and trends in terms of things they do for several years at a time.
 

Reddwit

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I was supposed to go to the USNDP game tonight but can't go. If anyone can go, they should check it out. Especially if you're a state fan. I've seen the UM game a couple times over the years and the USNDP kids really give it their all even if it doesn't pan out.
 

Reddwit

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I'm saying that we're in December.
Last year in December Liljegren was still being talked about as a top 5 pick.
Just as players can fall out, players can rise.


I don't know who that guy is yet. I've not yet sunk my teeth into this draft at all.
But there's no way in hell I'm writing off every center in the draft on Dec. 16.

I get what you're saying but there were serious concerns about Liljegren as a top 5 pick by December. He may have still been ranked as a top 5 but the rankings themselves tend to be slow to follow informal opinion. There are enough people with an internet presence that are either professional, amateur, or hobbyist scouts for their local junior team that a pretty accurate consensus can be achieved on guys to watch out for and guys to be concerned about long before a ranking comes out.

Not saying it doesn't happen but if you wanted to right now you could probably dig up some guys who plenty of people are talking about and liking but aren't yet appreciated in the rankings and vice versa. For example, I think there are concerns about Kupari as a top 15 pick right now even though he's ranked there (not my opinion but a lot of talk about it). Certainly concerns about him actually being a center. Maybe you could find some centers right now who people are predicting to rise. I haven't heard of any that should reach the level where we should be picking but who knows.
 

Dotter

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In different draft years, both Lilgren and Chychrun were both considered top 10 at various points. Both fell. Cholowski was ranked to go in the 2nd round and was picked #20th. Dmen are harder to gauge than forwards.
 

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Anyone got a report on Jacob Bernard-Docker?

EDIT: or Jack Randl?

EDIT 2: Andrei Kukuca?

EDIT 3: Matthew Kellenberger
 
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Rzombo4 prez

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Anyone got a report on Jacob Bernard-Docker?

EDIT: or Jack Randl?

EDIT 2: Andrei Kukuca?

EDIT 3: Matthew Kellenberger

I am a big JBD fan and would love to spend a mid-round pick on him. He is smart, mobile and a good passer of the puck. He strikes me as the prototypical modern defensemen. Give him three years in Grand Forks and you should have a useful prospect. I don't think the gap between him and Tychonick is very great at all.
 

Frk It

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They have the equivalent of middle pairing d-men for centers. And at the bottom of the first round there aren't any slam dunk d prospects.

Larkin is a safer bet to be a good top 6 center, than any of our defensive prospects are to being top 4 defenseman. By a country mile.

Looking at this team 3 years from now, you can reasonably expect Larkin to be one of our top 2 centers. Looking at our top 4 defenseman, I like Hronek/Saarijarvi/Cholowski, but they are all still question marks at this point in time to fill those roles.
 
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Shaman464

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Larkin is a safer bet to be a good top 6 center, than any of our defensive prospects are to being top 4 defenseman. By a country mile.

Looking at this team 3 years from now, you can reasonably expect Larkin to be one of our top 2 centers. Looking at our top 4 defenseman, I like Hronek/Saarijarvi/Cholowski, but they are all still question marks at this point in time to fill those roles.

The issue becomes it is vastly more common for a top pairing D-man to be traded or hit FA than it is for a #1 center. Larkin is definitely looking like a lock to be this teams 2nd line center and likely captain for the next decade, but this team still doesn't have anywhere up or down a pivot that will be able to drive a top line on a contending team. And If Pittsburgh has taught us anything its better to have elite talent down the middle at the expense of the backend than vice versa.
 

jkutswings

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The issue becomes it is vastly more common for a top pairing D-man to be traded or hit FA than it is for a #1 center. Larkin is definitely looking like a lock to be this teams 2nd line center and likely captain for the next decade, but this team still doesn't have anywhere up or down a pivot that will be able to drive a top line on a contending team. And If Pittsburgh has taught us anything its better to have elite talent down the middle at the expense of the backend than vice versa.
If Detroit ends up with an additional first round pick, and there's one or more players in the vicinity of said pick that the team believes could one day play 1C, I'm all on board with taking the guy.

But in this particular draft, I don't see that player materializing, unless something crazy happens, like a guy shoots up the rankings, then gets seriously injured, so he tumbles on draft day.
 

ChadS

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Wright story by Custance (The Athletic): The stakes are high for Tyler Wright, and the Red Wings

A potential issue with the 2017 draft approach? One could argue the Red Wings didn’t take enough big swings, considering the high number of picks at their disposal and lack of elite talent in the organization.
“If you swing for the fences every time and you’re in a slump, you’re not hitting the ball out of the ballpark all the time,” Wright said when the issue was raised. “You can set the organization back years.”
That honestly just sounds like he's afraid to miss on big swings. As if there's a considerable difference between taking big swings rather than picking "safe" guys who probably won't make the NHL anyway.
 
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Rzombo4 prez

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Wright story by Custance (The Athletic): The stakes are high for Tyler Wright, and the Red Wings


That honestly just sounds like he's afraid to miss on big swings. As if there's a considerable difference between taking big swings rather than picking "safe" guys who probably won't make the NHL anyway.

Perhaps, but who are all of these big swings that we passed on apart from the usual first-round suspects? There are certainly a couple here and there but that was a pretty frumpy draft in terms of depth.
 

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Frk It

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Wright story by Custance (The Athletic): The stakes are high for Tyler Wright, and the Red Wings


That honestly just sounds like he's afraid to miss on big swings. As if there's a considerable difference between taking big swings rather than picking "safe" guys who probably won't make the NHL anyway.

I really was starting to like Tyler Wright, but the picks last year and the surrounding commentary were pretty off-putting for me. We will see what we get next year.

I also just wonder if maybe Tyler Wright isn’t the most well-spoken guy in the world? I dunno.
 
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