Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Draft

[Frk It]

Reaching for a center in the first round of this draft is a really, really dumb idea. Rome wasn't built in a day.

Yup. You can only take what a draft has to give. Typically I'm all for drafting centers, this year's offering just isn't anything worthwhile in the 1st round for the most part, barring the Euro's who I haven't seen much.

Top pick this year should be defenseman -- next year after we trade Green and have the puck stuck in our end every night and draft top 5, we can take a center.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

They have 1 top 6 center going into the 2020 season right now, and he's looking to be a second line center. This team is pretty desperately in need of centers.

You're absolutely right, but I'm not sure there's a top 6 center to pick up late in the first. But as the others have said, I'd love to know more about the European centers: Kupari, Kotkaniemi, Olofsson, Lundestrom. I've seen it commented that the Finnish players are more likely to be wingers, while Swedes have somewhat lower upside.

 

[Shaman464]

You're absolutely right, but I'm not sure there's a top 6 center to pick up late in the first. But as the others have said, I'd love to know more about the European centers: Kupari, Kotkaniemi, Olofsson, Lundestrom. I've seen it commented that the Finnish players are more likely to be wingers, while Swedes have somewhat lower upside.

It would be a boom/bust pick which I said, but if they have a second #1 they can afford to gamble, especially because they have yet to prove they can develop a d-man that isn't already pretty developed.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

It would be a boom/bust pick which I said, but if they have a second #1 they can afford to gamble, especially because they have yet to prove they can develop a d-man that isn't already pretty developed.

I am missing you here. What center would you consider to be a boom or bust pick? Are you thinking about someone like O'Brien? I am just not seeing the high ceiling guys you are at the center position.

 

[Redder Winger]

Reaching for a center in the first round of this draft is a really, really dumb idea. Rome wasn't built in a day.

Pretty early in the year to say that.
McKeen's has 9 centers between 13 and 25.
I bet by January at least 1 or 2 in the top 10 and by June some are talked about as top 5 material.

Let's give these kids a chance to shine.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Pretty early in the year to say that.
McKeen's has 9 centers between 13 and 25.
I bet by January at least 1 or 2 in the top 10 and by June some are talked about as top 5 material.

Let's give these kids a chance to shine.

Nah, none of those centers will move into the top ten unless one of the Euros explodes between now and then. None have particularly high ceilings (apart from maybe the Finns who may not actually project as centers) and none have done anything with their play this year to drastically change that.

I agree though that there is a lot of hockey to be played between now and draft day.

 

[Dotter]

My concern with drafting a dman at the 4th-12th position is looking at the history of dmen picked in those slots. It's very volatile in terms if you get a top 6, top 4 or a top 2. Remember, for example, Brad Stuart was a 3rd overall pick. Cam Barker was a 3rd overall pick. Thomas Hickey 4th overall.

Then in the '08 draft you have all drafted in the top 5:

• Zach Bogosian

• Alex Pietrangelo

• Luke Schenn

Aside from Pietrangelo, who else would you be happy with your #1 top pick??? I do think Dahlin is a very, very safe #1 choice, and whatever team wins the lottery will be getting the centerpiece to build around. There's nobody else in the draft we can safely say that about.

Any team, including Wings, could draft the next Brad Stuart with your #1 top pick. Would you be okay with that? And it is not a scouting issue, it's dmen are nearly impossible to gauge. Each pick you use on a dman is an incredible risk (not named Dahlin). No doubt Dahlin is going to be on the same tier as Alex Pietrangelo.

I think many, many dman will drop because of this. I think Wings should use their all their late 1st and early 2nd round picks on dmen. [Educated] Shotgun draft and hope something hits. (Roman Josi, Shea Weber, Duncan Keith, PK Subban and etc)

I think a kid like Filip Zadina would be a sure fire blue-chip prospect. And maybe Walhstrom too. Wings do not have elite players to enter the zone since Datsyuk. That is just as big of a need.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Wouldn't count on either making it past the 1st.

If they do make the 1st, plenty of talent in the 2nd.

Hey, Detroit may acquire another 2018 1st.

 

[Reddwit]

I agree with you on the "arguably" part.

With your whole week's worth of draft research, I'll really take that to heart.

 

[Reddwit]

My concern with drafting a dman at the 4th-12th position is looking at the history of dmen picked in those slots. It's very volatile in terms if you get a top 6, top 4 or a top 2. Remember, for example, Brad Stuart was a 3rd overall pick. Cam Barker was a 3rd overall pick. Thomas Hickey 4th overall.

Then in the '08 draft you have all drafted in the top 5:

• Zach Bogosian

• Alex Pietrangelo

• Luke Schenn

Aside from Pietrangelo, who else would you be happy with your #1 top pick??? I do think Dahlin is a very, very safe #1 choice, and whatever team wins the lottery will be getting the centerpiece to build around. There's nobody else in the draft we can safely say that about.

Any team, including Wings, could draft the next Brad Stuart with your #1 top pick. Would you be okay with that? And it is not a scouting issue, it's dmen are nearly impossible to gauge. Each pick you use on a dman is an incredible risk (not named Dahlin). No doubt Dahlin is going to be on the same tier as Alex Pietrangelo.

I think many, many dman will drop because of this. I think Wings should use their all their late 1st and early 2nd round picks on dmen. [Educated] Shotgun draft and hope something hits. (Roman Josi, Shea Weber, Duncan Keith, PK Subban and etc)

I think a kid like Filip Zadina would be a sure fire blue-chip prospect. And maybe Walhstrom too. Wings do not have elite players to enter the zone since Datsyuk. That is just as big of a need.

Brother, are you new to the draft? All of it is volatile. There's a reason the idea of moving draft-eligibility back to age 19 has been gaining steam in the past half decade.

Also, what is the point in harkening back to a draft that took place 10 years ago? Follow the league, man. First it was eliminating clutch-and-grab, then it was interference and hitting, followed by hooking and now slashing. This is a much easier league for the smaller man to play in so long as he has wheels (hey there, Hughes, Boqvist). What was a good gameplan in 2008 is so far removed from what is a solid gamplan today that any scout advocating for a Luke Schenn type with his sub .5 ppg at number 5 (or 10 or even 15) would be fired on the spot today. Not to mention, why on earth are you cherry-picking the top defense choices of 2008 when the almost all of the top 3-15 draft choices that year - wether defense or forwards - ended up busting hardcore. That reeks of scouting/management retaining their outdated values about what works best in the NHL much more than it does spark some hysteria about drafting defenseman in the top 5 or 10.


I mean, you could talk about 2008 or you could talk about 2017 where 3 small defenseman were drafted in the top 15 (the highest one out of tier 2!). Or you could talk about Chychrun sliding down the rankings as he failed to take the next step regardless of his physical package and pro-readiness or about Tyler Wright himself discounting the size and physicality bias when it comes to drafting defenseman in today's age - both which happened in 2016. Or you could even talk about the true draft movement of the past decade - that pretty much no one is going to waste a top 10 pick on goaltenders regardless of their sexy stats anymore. But you choose to focus on a 9.5 year old draft when the league still overvalued size and physicality in defenseman? I guess I just dont follow.

 

[Frk It]

My concern with drafting a dman at the 4th-12th position is looking at the history of dmen picked in those slots. It's very volatile in terms if you get a top 6, top 4 or a top 2. Remember, for example, Brad Stuart was a 3rd overall pick. Cam Barker was a 3rd overall pick. Thomas Hickey 4th overall.

Then in the '08 draft you have all drafted in the top 5:

• Zach Bogosian

• Alex Pietrangelo

• Luke Schenn

Aside from Pietrangelo, who else would you be happy with your #1 top pick??? I do think Dahlin is a very, very safe #1 choice, and whatever team wins the lottery will be getting the centerpiece to build around. There's nobody else in the draft we can safely say that about.

Any team, including Wings, could draft the next Brad Stuart with your #1 top pick. Would you be okay with that? And it is not a scouting issue, it's dmen are nearly impossible to gauge. Each pick you use on a dman is an incredible risk (not named Dahlin). No doubt Dahlin is going to be on the same tier as Alex Pietrangelo.

I think many, many dman will drop because of this. I think Wings should use their all their late 1st and early 2nd round picks on dmen. [Educated] Shotgun draft and hope something hits. (Roman Josi, Shea Weber, Duncan Keith, PK Subban and etc)

I think a kid like Filip Zadina would be a sure fire blue-chip prospect. And maybe Walhstrom too. Wings do not have elite players to enter the zone since Datsyuk. That is just as big of a need.

Odds of us drafting top 5 still aren’t that great with the current lotto system.

Recent defenseman taken in the 5-12 range: Zach Werenski, Jacob Trouba, Ivan Provorov, Mikhail Sergachev

Sign me up for any of those guys....

 

[TheMule93]

I remember wanting us to trade up for Provorov so badly. Still wish we did.

 

[Dotter]

Brother, are you new to the draft? All of it is volatile. There's a reason the idea of moving draft-eligibility back to age 19 has been gaining steam in the past half decade.

Also, what is the point in harkening back to a draft that took place 10 years ago? Follow the league, man. First it was eliminating clutch-and-grab, then it was interference and hitting, followed by hooking and now slashing. This is a much easier league for the smaller man to play in so long as he has wheels (hey there, Hughes, Boqvist). What was a good gameplan in 2008 is so far removed from what is a solid gamplan today that any scout advocating for a Luke Schenn type with his sub .5 ppg at number 5 (or 10 or even 15) would be fired on the spot today. Not to mention, why on earth are you cherry-picking the top defense choices of 2008 when the almost all of the top 3-15 draft choices that year - wether defense or forwards - ended up busting hardcore. That reeks of scouting/management retaining their outdated values about what works best in the NHL much more than it does spark some hysteria about drafting defenseman in the top 5 or 10.


I mean, you could talk about 2008 or you could talk about 2017 where 3 small defenseman were drafted in the top 15 (the highest one out of tier 2!). Or you could talk about Chychrun sliding down the rankings as he failed to take the next step regardless of his physical package and pro-readiness or about Tyler Wright himself discounting the size and physicality bias when it comes to drafting defenseman in today's age - both which happened in 2016. Or you could even talk about the true draft movement of the past decade - that pretty much no one is going to waste a top 10 pick on goaltenders regardless of their sexy stats anymore. But you choose to focus on a 9.5 year old draft when the league still overvalued size and physicality in defenseman? I guess I just dont follow.

I went back that far because we can evaluate their hockey careers. I can go back as far as 2014 for you (since that's what you prefer?). I think anything after 2014 is too soon to evaluate.

#1 pick: Aaron Ekblad - What Dahlin should be.
#7 pick: Haydn Fleury
#14 pick: Julius Honka
#17 pick: Travis Sanheim
#19 pick: Anthony DeAngelo

That's the year Tyler Wright took Dylan Larkin. The only dman I would take over Larkin that year is Ekblad.

 

[Dotter]

Odds of us drafting top 5 still aren’t that great with the current lotto system.

Recent defenseman taken in the 5-12 range: Zach Werenski, Jacob Trouba, Ivan Provorov, Mikhail Sergachev

Sign me up for any of those guys....

Nice. And I agree. All those dmen are over 6'1" and over 200ibs.

People on this forum want Wings to draft the 5'9" guy weighing in at a whopping 140ibs with the #3 pick. LOL
You don't pick peewee size players with your top #3 pick...

EDIT:

Jared McIsaac is the kid you take if we are #5-12

 

[Go Wings]

They have 1 top 6 center going into the 2020 season right now, and he's looking to be a second line center. This team is pretty desperately in need of centers.

So first of Larkin looks like a decent 1st line center not 2nd line. Rasmussen is still on track to be a 2nd line center. It will take time but his play in the preseason and WHL shows that he is on track.

3rd and most importantly this is a defense heavy draft. Detroit has the worst defense in the league, literally there is no team worse. We draft 2 defensmen in the first round period.

 

[Go Wings]

I went back that far because we can evaluate their hockey careers. I can go back as far as 2014 for you (since that's what you prefer?). I think anything after 2014 is too soon to evaluate.

#1 pick: Aaron Ekblad - What Dahlin should be.
#7 pick: Haydn Fleury
#14 pick: Julius Honka
#17 pick: Travis Sanheim
#19 pick: Anthony DeAngelo

That's the year Tyler Wright took Dylan Larkin. The only dman I would take over Larkin that year is Ekblad.

That was a weak dmen year this is not.

 

[jkutswings]

I went back that far because we can evaluate their hockey careers. I can go back as far as 2014 for you (since that's what you prefer?). I think anything after 2014 is too soon to evaluate.

#1 pick: Aaron Ekblad - What Dahlin should be.
#7 pick: Haydn Fleury
#14 pick: Julius Honka
#17 pick: Travis Sanheim
#19 pick: Anthony DeAngelo

That's the year Tyler Wright took Dylan Larkin. The only dman I would take over Larkin that year is Ekblad.

So anything after 2014 is too soon to evaluate, yet you think Wright has done a fantastic job (despite that draft being his first as scouting director here). Even with Larkin being a great pick, the rest of that class was a wash, and, by your own words, everything since then is TBD.

So how exactly are you so certain of Wright's skills?

 

[Dotter]

That was a weak dmen year this is not.

We don't know how they turn out yet. A team doesn't pick a dman @ #7 if they think they are weak like the one in 2014 (who eventually proved to be a bottom pairing dman).

 

[Dotter]

So anything after 2014 is too soon to evaluate, yet you think Wright has done a fantastic job (despite that draft being his first as scouting director here). Even with Larkin being a great pick, the rest of that class was a wash, and, by your own words, everything since then is TBD.

So how exactly are you so certain of Wright's skills?

You're right. Wright is 1-0 and did a masterful job in 2014. He still has two late(r) 1st round former picks still honing out their game.

So far, bravo!

 

[Shaman464]

So first of Larkin looks like a decent 1st line center not 2nd line. Rasmussen is still on track to be a 2nd line center. It will take time but his play in the preseason and WHL shows that he is on track.

3rd and most importantly this is a defense heavy draft. Detroit has the worst defense in the league, literally there is no team worse. We draft 2 defensmen in the first round period.

No, Larkin still looks like a second line center. He's doing well, but remember how people fell off his bandwagon and were off it for the last year and a half? Lets not look too much into a good 30 games. He's got talent, and he's definitely a top 6 center, but he still not anywhere near a lock for top line center on a contending team.

As for Rasmussen, he's not on track for a top line pivot job at all, his skill set is definitely tracking towards a top 6 wing. He doesn't carry the play at all, he is looking like a decent finisher, but needs to show he's more than a Franzenesque finisher.

 

[Reddwit]

I went back that far because we can evaluate their hockey careers. I can go back as far as 2014 for you (since that's what you prefer?). I think anything after 2014 is too soon to evaluate.

#1 pick: Aaron Ekblad - What Dahlin should be.
#7 pick: Haydn Fleury
#14 pick: Julius Honka
#17 pick: Travis Sanheim
#19 pick: Anthony DeAngelo

That's the year Tyler Wright took Dylan Larkin. The only dman I would take over Larkin that year is Ekblad.

You don't need to go back an arbitrary 9.5 years to evaluate anyone's careers. You're cherry-picking drafts. But that's not even what matters - what matters is that you think the draft process is stagnant and that each draft can be compared to the next. There are weak drafts, there are strong drafts, there are uncertain drafts. There are drafts where a certain position is strong while others aren't...and even that wont stop a team who desperately needs a certain hole to fill to draft for need. Not everyone drafts BPA, not everyone has the same draft philosophy and the draft itself certainly can't be obfuscated into being something upon which you can reliably extrapolate from year to year.

Also, Dahlin should be a f***ton better than Ekblad. While Ekblad's first NHL season exceeded everyone's expectations, he was always considered a pro-ready pick but also wasn't even the unequivocal #1 choice down to draft day. Dahlin is far and away the #1 choice this draft year as he should be. He arguably could've been the #1 draft choice last year at 17 and probably only McDavid bumps Dahlin from the #1 spot of any of the '10s drafts.

 

[Redder Winger]

Nah, none of those centers will move into the top ten unless one of the Euros explodes between now and then. None have particularly high ceilings (apart from maybe the Finns who may not actually project as centers) and none have done anything with their play this year to drastically change that.

I agree though that there is a lot of hockey to be played between now and draft day.

Nobody had Robert Thomas in the top 50 in January.
I had him pegged as a potential Wings pick at 9 - even if he was lower in the rankings.
Today he's an 18 year old center on Canada's WJC team. He's tearing up the OHL while playing great two-way hockey.

At the end of the day, skill set, scouting reports and video matter as much to me as stats and rankings (where there sure seems to be a lot of follow the leader).

 

[Reddwit]

Nobody had Robert Thomas in the top 50 in January.
I had him pegged as a potential Wings pick at 9 - even if he was lower in the rankings.
Today he's an 18 year old center on Canada's WJC team. He's tearing up the OHL while playing great two-way hockey.

At the end of the day, skill set, scouting reports and video matter as much to me as stats and rankings (where there sure seems to be a lot of follow the leader).

This seemed off to me so I did some research and apparently McKeen's (not that they're the bible for hockey or anything) apparently had him ranked at 28 to start his draft year. Why do you think nobody had him ranked in the top 50 in January? Many outlets might not have but I think he had a ton of buzz (definitely by January) that even if he wasn't ranked in the top 50, he was easily one of the most popular dark horses. Not saying you're wrong, I just remember him being a runaway choice for a guy who was underrated. Could be misremembering though.

 

[Go Wings]

Nobody had Robert Thomas in the top 50 in January.
I had him pegged as a potential Wings pick at 9 - even if he was lower in the rankings.
Today he's an 18 year old center on Canada's WJC team. He's tearing up the OHL while playing great two-way hockey.

At the end of the day, skill set, scouting reports and video matter as much to me as stats and rankings (where there sure seems to be a lot of follow the leader).

That literally proves nothing. Just because he is doing well in junior does not mean he will be a 1st or 2nd line center.

 

[ChadS]

First goal here by Merkley is a nice one... A Givani Smith assist in there too (3rd goal).