Speculation: 2018 NHL Draft Talk :)

[CandyCanes]

I foresee a trade to get back into the 3rd if Tyler Weiss is still around. He's a Raleigh boy---and is known personally by several in the Canes organization. Can't see them letting him sit around if they have a chance.

Is Tyler really rated that high? That's awesome. Any other Raleigh boys entering the draft that's worth noting?

 

[DaveG]

Is Tyler really rated that high? That's awesome. Any other Raleigh boys entering the draft that's worth noting?

Only notable I can think of, Wilkins is still out there but he's eligible to be signed as a UDFA now so I can't see anyone using a pick on him. Like Veini he's a guy that's gone through multiple drafts now.

 

[GoldiFox]

Been saying it for months. Svechnikov is a game changer. Closer to Tavares/Hall than Reinhart/Yakupov.

Bob McKenzie final rankings:

Let’s start with Russian winger Andrei Svechnikov of the Barrie Colts.
At first glance, his ranking has not changed one bit. He’s still No. 2 on TSN’s final ranking, just as he was in the preseason, mid-season and draft lottery edition rankings.
But this time it’s unanimous, and it’s the first of a number of notable draft developments that have unfolded over the last couple of months that could make even the top 10 of this Friday’s draft more unpredictable than originally anticipated.
“If you want to know the truth,” one scout said, “Svechnikov may be closer to Dahlin for No. 1 than the rest of the field is to Svechnikov.”
The point is, outside of Dahlin, Svechnikov has separated himself from the rest of the field.

https://www.tsn.ca/kotkaniemi-surges-into-top-five-of-tsn-draft-ranking-1.1115400

 

[Joe McGrath]

Consensus #2 pick. Do not f*** this up!

 

[razor ray]

Svech is going to Carolina....book it. The only interesting part of the draft is what happens from #3 on.....

 

[Cane mutiny]

He's gone through *three* drafts, not two. He's two weeks younger than Noah Hanifin (Feb. 13, 1997) so he was eligible in 2015. He actually traveled to Florida for the draft and was (obviously) surprised not to hear his name. I don't know if he went to 2016 and 2017, but it's crazy to me that no team has taken a shot even late in the draft to the point that we're going to have to use a top-100 (or so) pick on him. From what I understand, he's been in Ducks camp (not sure about prospects or main camp) and Colorado also has him on their radar (although they just signed one of the Euro goalies a few weeks back so I'm not sure if that's a factor).

It's been a weird situation since we were first "connected" with a draft-eligible player, and it just keeps getting weirder. He's not listed on *any* of the prospect rankings. Is that because he's really not among the top 250 players available? Even the top 10 goalies? Or because the draftniks aren't aware he's draft-eligible? Or do people *still* doubt his mental toughness? It's virtually impossible to get a read on what's going to happen with this guy. A true draft "wild-card," which really doesn't happen much anymore.

I think he's not on anyone's draft list because he was a late add to the draft. Supposedly we wanted to sign him to a FA deal, but he had to submit his name and go thru the draft, in order to sign a contract because of his age. I believe that's the only reason he re-entered. That's why I said it's unfair that others get to take interest now. They had 3 shots at him already and didn't take him. We should have been able to just sign him without using one of our draft picks.

 

[SlavinAway]

I’m thinking about making the drive up from Wilmington for the draft party. Is anyone here going or for those that have been before is it worth it?

 

[DaveG]

I’m thinking about making the drive up from Wilmington for the draft party. Is anyone here going or for those that have been before is it worth it?

Love going when it's at the stadium but unfortunately there's a concert this year. Been to the draft parties when they've been at Buffalo Bros, has been worth it but then again I also lived maybe 10 minutes from the restaurant.

 

[jrcanesfan30]

I can't wait to go to the draft party on Friday. Def gonna duck tape "Svechnikov" on the back of one of my Canes jerseys

 

[ONO94]

Tyler is being rated as back half of the 3rd round type prospect. Granted, he could go a bit higher or lower depending on the team that is around--so maybe the Canes could grab him with the Arizona pick in the 4th. However, that might be a bit risky.

Tyler was rated as a potential second rounder at one point--but then other kids kept growing and getting better. But he has good hands, good vision and very good speed--so you never know what may be in the future for him.

 

[geehaad]

I've heard enough anecdotal evidence to make me a believer in the kids whose draft stock is currently on the rise. It would be interesting to know how the risers have fared over the years, in terms of actual performance versus expected. I wonder if that's a telling trend or if it all evens out in the end (meaning: fallers like Fowler still producing, risers not amounting to anything).

 

[My Special Purpose]

I've heard enough anecdotal evidence to make me a believer in the kids whose draft stock is currently on the rise. It would be interesting to know how the risers have fared over the years, in terms of actual performance versus expected. I wonder if that's a telling trend or if it all evens out in the end (meaning: fallers like Fowler still producing, risers not amounting to anything).

I'm getting old, so I find myself saying this a lot, but "I read about this somewhere." It's a wash, basically. As is trading up. In the end, when drafting, the only thing that moves the needle as far as generating an advantage, is having more picks.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Here’s a question: how much better/worse could I do by spending $100 a year on various draft guides available to the public?

We wouldn’t have Skinner (we’d have Fowler). We also wouldn’t have Fleury (we’d have Ehlers). Probably have Monahan instead of Lindholm. No Aho. Etc etc.

An exercise could be done to go through our last 10 drafts and just pick the ISS, McKeen’s, or whoever’s draft guide’s BPA at our draft position. Wonder how we’d fair?

Even if it’s a wash, it’d be an interesting question to see if we could literally spend our entire draft budget (save, say, $1000) elsewhere. Would never happen, but would be interesting anyway.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Looking back.

2013:
TSN/McKenzie had Lindholm at 5, Monahan at 7.
McKeens had Lindholm at 4, Monahan at 11.
ISS had Lindholm at 7, Monahan at 9.

I think if we followed most draft guides, we'd still have Lindholm

2014:
TSN/McKenzie had Virtanen at 7, Fleury at 8, Nylander at 9, Ehlers at 10;
ISS had Nylander at 4, Virtanen at 7, Ehlers at 11, Fleury at 12
McKeens had Ehlers at 6, Virtanen at 7, Nylander at 8, Fleury at 10
Button had Ehlers at 6, Fleury at 7, Nylander at 9
Central Scouting NA: Ritchie at 7, Perlini at 8, Fleury at 9, Ehlers at 13
Central Scouting Europe: Kapanen at 1, Nylander at 2, Pastrnak at 5; Aho at 9

This one was much more scattered, as you'd expect when you get latter in the draft (vs. top 5), but I think you are right, if you looked at the "general" consensus, it probably would have gone Nylander, Ehlers, Fleury.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Maybe you are on to something AD. From what I can tell, in the last 5 drafts, here was the top player from McKenzie's rankings still available when the Canes picked in the 1st round.

2013: Elias Lindholm
2014: 1) Nick Ritchie, 2) Haydn Fleury
2015: Noah Hanifin
2016: Jake Bean
2017: Martin Necas

So the Canes ended up picking the top ranked player on the board from McKenzie's rankings (which is a poll of scouts) in every draft the last 4 years, except for 2014 where they took the 2nd highest ranked player left on the board.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Agreed there will be times it backfires.

I simply meant that as evidence for Kev’s remark that the only real advantage you can gain is amount of draft picks.

I, an uneducated simpleton who watches 0-2 junior hockey games per year depending on whether I’m doing anything more interesting during WJCs, can’t actually definitively tell you we’d be worse off if we just went with my gut pick in the first round every year. We’d have Fowler instead of Skinner, Monahan instead of Lindholm, McAvoy instead of Bean, Ehlers instead of Fleury. We’d still have Ryan Murphy, we’d still have Hanifin, probably Max Jones instead of Gauthier (literally because I recognized his name more at the time of the draft), Tolvanen instead of Necas (wash?), and Svechnikov instead of however they screw this up .

I’m not saying this to brag on myself (far, far, far from it, I know very little about the way the game is played compared to most on these boards), it’s more a testament to what Kev’s talking about.


That said, I bet this falters after we get out of the first round and team’s boards start diverging like crazy. I certainly wouldn’t have picked Aho, Slavin, or Pesce out of thin air (namely, our entire young core).

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Consensus #2 pick. Do not **** this up!

The fact that that's still a very real concern just tells you how little faith we have in this team not to f*** up when things go their way.

 

[geehaad]

Wow. Nick Ritchie is a big kid.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Maybe you are on to something AD. From what I can tell, in the last 5 drafts, here was the top player from McKenzie's rankings still available when the Canes picked in the 1st round.

2013: Elias Lindholm
2014: 1) Nick Ritchie, 2) Haydn Fleury
2015: Noah Hanifin
2016: Jake Bean
2017: Martin Necas

So the Canes ended up picking the top ranked player on the board from McKenzie's rankings (which is a poll of scouts) in every draft the last 4 years, except for 2014 where they took the 2nd highest ranked player left on the board.

Those may not be entirely unrelated, as McKenzie’s ranking are based on scouts from actual teams, so the Canes draft board may have actually slightly influenced them (although given Fort Knox Francis maybe not).

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Also, I take Ehlers back, I think I did like Ritchie that year.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Those may not be entirely unrelated, as McKenzie’s ranking are based on scouts from actual teams, so the Canes draft board may have actually slightly influenced them (although given Fort Knox Francis maybe not).

Yeah, I know. I was sarcastically suggesting that they don't do any scouting in the 1st round, just use other scouts (via Mckenzie's ranking) info and go with what's on that list.

 

[geehaad]

I think my pondering is being misconstrued. I'm not asking about taking the higher-ranked prospect who is remaining to be selected. I'm asking about taking a prospect who has elevated his ranking as his draft approached. Angelo Esposito is a notable example of a faller. Jesperi Kotkaniemi is a riser. Nico Hischier was a riser, Nolan Patrick a faller.

An example would be a guy who started the year at #X, then at the halfway point had moved up 5 spots, then just before the draft had moved up another 6 spots....that sort of thing.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Yeah, I know. I was sarcastically suggesting that they don't do any scouting in the 1st round, just use other scouts (via Mckenzie's ranking) info and go with what's on that list.

They might.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I think my pondering is being misconstrued. I'm not asking about taking the higher-ranked prospect who is remaining to be selected. I'm asking about taking a prospect who has elevated his ranking as his draft approached. Angelo Esposito is a notable example of a faller. Jesperi Kotkaniemi is a riser. Nico Hischier was a riser, Nolan Patrick a faller.

It’s another interesting question. Mine was a piggyback, I did understand yours. My response was mostly to Kev saying the analysis suggests that no one has really figured out a solid metric for success except having more darts.

 

[sheriff bart]

Consensus #2 pick. Do not **** this up!

How will the kid ever live up to his potential if the Canes take him? It wouldn't be fair to him.