Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Draft - Shall We Begin?

[LegionOfDoom91]

Vegas was trying to trade up to secure Cody Glass last year but Benning pretty much told them who he was taking.

Pretty much all draft’s drop off after the #6-8 range & there’s even tiers amongst that group. They’re really the only players worth really investing into as they’re guys closer to the NHL. At the same time though that’s why they’re expensive in asking price these days. As you move on it’s becomes more of a crapshoot because the differences in players can be so drastic. The cost is more feasible to do if you like a player enough but I’d imagine in most cases it’s just not really worth it too much.

The Flyers moved up for Ratcliffe last year giving up a lot of draft capital to do so. But they already had Patrick/Frost drafted from the night before, still had a lot more picks to play with, & had a deep prospect pool to begin with. It’s probably safe to assume they thought Ratcliffe was better than his slotting as well (pick #35 in the second round). So that’s probably the justifications for sacrificing quantity for quality.

 

[deadhead]

I think Ratcliffe was a pure gamble on a "unicorn," how often do you have a shot at a guy that big, who can skate that fast, and has scoring skills?
You're gambling that he'll fill out without slowing down, improve his puck handling and defensive awareness and be able to play around the net.
If it all works out, you have a top ten value, if it doesn't, he's still should be a good bottom six forward.

 

[Chinatown88]

Jett Woo! Get it done Hexy!

Wonder if he slips to the second round because of his injury plagued season.

 

[baudib1]

Sad to say I think Laberge has a long ways to go to even sniff the NHL. Personally I wanted them to grab Bellows with their original pick and then Debrincat with their second (I think a lot of people around here felt the same).

I'll admit I didn't like the Carter Hart pick at all, which now seems ridiculous.

 

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

I'm hoping for two forwards in the first. I do admit though, I'm surprised at how Joe Veleno has fallen. Everything about him screams Patrice Bergeron 2.0, but yet there just seems to be something about him that scouts don't like. An elite two-way forward with great on ice awareness and ability is just as valuable as a goal scoring forward or a high octane offensive forward.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

You win some, you lose some but only the misses are really ever brought up.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I think Ratcliffe was a pure gamble on a "unicorn," how often do you have a shot at a guy that big, who can skate that fast, and has scoring skills?
You're gambling that he'll fill out without slowing down, improve his puck handling and defensive awareness and be able to play around the net.
If it all works out, you have a top ten value, if it doesn't, he's still should be a good bottom six forward.

You definitely could be right about this. The thing that gives me pause is that they gave up a relative ton to get him. I know they had a boatload of picks, but a gamble just doesn't seem like his approach when it cost so many assets to get him.

 

[Chinatown88]

I think the fact that Chyka said Hexy was overpaying is what still bothers me about the trade up. Hopefully Ratcliffe pans out.

 

[FlyTimmo]

I think the fact that Chyka said Hexy was overpaying is what still bothers me about the trade up. Hopefully Ratcliffe pans out.

Chayka doesn't know shit

 

[baudib1]

We trust Hextall and his talent evaluators right? I love the move for Ratcliffe. I'd rather take a 20% shot to get a top line scorer than a couple 40% shots at a middle 6 guy.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

We trust Hextall and his talent evaluators right? I love the move for Ratcliffe. I'd rather take a 20% shot to get a top line scorer than a couple 40% shots at a middle 6 guy.

They still made 9 selections that draft including the second overall pick. So the odds were/are still in the favor to come out of this draft being a success down the road.

Recap of the the Flyers 2017 draft with seasons essentially coming to an end.

1st (2nd) F Nolan Patrick (NHL) 63GP 10G 14A 24P
1st (27th) F Morgan Frost (OHL) 67GP 42G 70A 112P
2nd (35th) F Isaac Ratcliffe (OHL) 67GP 41G 27A 68P
3rd (80th) G Kirill Ustimenko (MHL) 53GP .929SV% 1.81GAA 11SO
4th (106th) F Matthew Strome (OHL) 65GP 37G 31A 67P
4th (107th) F Maksim Sushko (OHL) 60GP 31G 29A 60P
5th (137th) F Noah Cates (USHL) 50GP 18G 28A 46P
6th (168th) F Olle Lycksell (SHL) 26GP 5G 2A 7P
7th (196th) D Wyatt Kalynuk (NCAA) 37GP 3G 22A 25P

Ones in bold have already signed contracts.

 

[baudib1]

yeah, i'll be pretty surprised if there's not 1.5 NHLers out of Strome/Sushko/Cates.

 

[Tripod]

I think ranking Tkachuk over Svech is going to make Button look silly in a few years.

Here is something I saw mentioned that makes you think.

Brady Tkachuk 29 points in 38 games
Shane Bowers 31 points in 38 games

Both play for Boston College
Both are college rookies

Brady born Sept 16, 1999
Bowers born July 30, 1999

So Bowers is only 1.5 months older. He was a late 1st rounder, Brady expected yo be a top 5 pick.

So is Brady very overrated, or is Bowers now worth a high first? I just found that comparison interesting. I have not seen either play but have seen comments from those who have and feel there is little difference between them.

Maybe someone on here who has seen them both could comment.

 

[Magua]

We trust Hextall and his talent evaluators right? I love the move for Ratcliffe. I'd rather take a 20% shot to get a top line scorer than a couple 40% shots at a middle 6 guy.

I'm not sure about those %s, and it's not like Ratcliffe loses his high floor (he wasn't a very risky pick and might still be more a projectable middle 6 guy), but given their asset amount and prospect depth, I always love trade-ups for "your guy." I especially love that Flyers do it literally every draft. There were a handful of guys I would've taken over Ratcliffe at the time, but the Flyers overpaid with a 4th rounder, so that's a small price for me when you have enough certainty. And I'm coming around.

It's also yet another reason why people shouldn't pooh-pooh not trading mid-round picks like candy. Might come a time when you don't have that 3rd or 4th to use in a trade-up because you improvidently blew it on a trade for a veteran scrub.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

It’s ok to separate the trade up from the specific player evaluation. Ratcliffe would not have been my pick in that spot on draft day, but if they liked him as much as it seems they did and turned down that deal, I would say they handled it incorrectly.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

The Flyers traded picks #44, #75, & #108 for #35. Arizona took D Filip Westerlund, F Nate Schnarr, & D Noel Hoefenmayer with those picks.

Filip Westerlund
Nate Schnarr
Noel Hoefenmayer

 

[Magua]

The Flyers traded picks #44, #75, & #108 for #35. Arizona took D Filip Westerlund, F Nate Schnarr, & D Noel Hoefenmayer with those picks.

Filip Westerlund
Nate Schnarr
Noel Hoefenmayer

I thought they had a shit draft the moment it ended. Want to talk about forcing need, there you go. A lot of defense and questionable upside size+grit.

Fun fact: HockeyProspect had Schnarr as a 1st rounder for the longest time last year. Was a mystery to me.

 

[Magua]

Here is something I saw mentioned that makes you think.

Brady Tkachuk 29 points in 38 games
Shane Bowers 31 points in 38 games

Both play for Boston College
Both are college rookies

Brady born Sept 16, 1999
Bowers born July 30, 1999

So Bowers is only 1.5 months older. He was a late 1st rounder, Brady expected yo be a top 5 pick.

So is Brady very overrated, or is Bowers now worth a high first? I just found that comparison interesting. I have not seen either play but have seen comments from those who have and feel there is little difference between them.

Maybe someone on here who has seen them both could comment.

Did an Avs fan mention it by any chance?

Raw scoring in a 1 year snapshot isn't everything in projecting NHL potential. You're projecting development too. It's how a guy like Suzuki gets matched and passed by similar profiled guys in Frost and Thomas from D to D+1. Brady is a funny player in that he basically has never played with the talent befitting him at any level. He did though at the WJC and tore it up, by stats and eye. He, individually, always looks like one of the best players on any team. Can't imagine what he would've done at BU for a season with Clayton Keller. He has the skill-set to elevate his scoring when with skill players who can think and play like him. He also had rotten scoring luck this year with his shooting %, so that plays into those numbers.

Maybe Shane Bowers is a better prospect than people think (I thought he was a little vanilla last year offensively and had him in late 30s I think). Or maybe he was the one who benefitted playing with Brady, and maybe he won't keep developing offensively. I think Brady just has a greater offensive skill-set. Of course you could say he's riding on his name "Tkachuk" -- especially given his brother's NHL tenure so far -- but I look at guys ranked after him and think he's right where he belongs. But maybe he got overrated. We'll see in time.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I thought they had a **** draft the moment it ended. Want to talk about forcing need, there you go. A lot of defense and questionable upside size+grit.

Fun fact: HockeyProspect had Schnarr as a 1st rounder for the longest time last year. Was a mystery to me.

Yeah the early returns aren’t looking too great either. Steenbergen is probably the only one who shot up since then. I figured Entwistle would have a better season.

Elite Prospects - NHL Entry Draft 2017

 

[Rebels57]

Here is something I saw mentioned that makes you think.

Brady Tkachuk 29 points in 38 games
Shane Bowers 31 points in 38 games

Both play for Boston College
Both are college rookies

Brady born Sept 16, 1999
Bowers born July 30, 1999

So Bowers is only 1.5 months older. He was a late 1st rounder, Brady expected yo be a top 5 pick.

So is Brady very overrated, or is Bowers now worth a high first? I just found that comparison interesting. I have not seen either play but have seen comments from those who have and feel there is little difference between them.

Maybe someone on here who has seen them both could comment.

I remember being really impressed with Brady in the WJC this year.

Definitely not trying to knock Brady, but I see clear separation between Brady and Svech.

 

[Magua]

Yeah the early returns aren’t looking too great either. Steenbergen is probably the only one who shot up since then. I figured Entwistle would have a better season.

Elite Prospects - NHL Entry Draft 2017

Yeah, Entwistle is having a Bunnaman-esque D+1, battling injuries, so it's not too bad. But I definitely bought into his u18s hype and thought he might do a little better. But they didn't over-draft him that much either, and he did develop, unlike Schnarr. Joseph is a solid player on a meh team, and I thought that was a fine pick. Steenbergen late, even though he was a re-entry. But they were so desperate for d-men it stunk. Minus high picks, they're just on average a pretty mediocre drafting team in recent years. Makes what the Flyers do rounds 1-7 even more impressive.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Did an Avs fan mention it by any chance?

Raw scoring in a 1 year snapshot isn't everything in projecting NHL potential. You're projecting development too. It's how a guy like Suzuki gets matched and passed by similar profiled guys in Frost and Thomas from D to D+1. Brady is a funny player in that he basically has never played with the talent befitting him at any level. He did though at the WJC and tore it up, by stats and eye. He, individually, always looks like one of the best players on any team. Can't imagine what he would've done at BU for a season with Clayton Keller. He has the skill-set to elevate his scoring when with skill players who can think and play like him. He also had rotten scoring luck this year with his shooting %, so that plays into those numbers.

Maybe Shane Bowers is a better prospect than people think (I thought he was a little vanilla last year offensively and had him in late 30s I think). Or maybe he was the one who benefitted playing with Brady, and maybe he won't keep developing offensively. I think Brady just has a greater offensive skill-set. Of course you could say he's riding on his name "Tkachuk" -- especially given his brother's NHL tenure so far -- but I look at guys ranked after him and think he's right where he belongs. But maybe he got overrated. We'll see in time.

He definitely has the DNA to be an "oversized" person, whether he is "overrated" or not. Have you seen his dad? Of course you have. You could see his dad from space. The fat bastard.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

I remember being really impressed with Brady in the WJC this year.

Definitely not trying to knock Brady, but I see clear separation between Brady and Svech.

Reb, if you ever need me to, I'm very happy to knock Brady, or anyone else in his family. Just let me know.

#NoDakotans #NoMatchbox20 #NoTkachuks

 

[hystyk1921]

Craig’s list had Farabee in that 14-19 range I would absolutely take him. A left handed TK sign me up! Veleno skating is impressive, poor mans Nathan Mackinnon I would say about the rest of his game. Wilde reminds me of werenski, Harvard puts prospects into the nhl. Denisenko, kupari, Sandin or lundestrom. Hell, maybe Hughes falls do to his size. Skating and skill

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Wilde is going to Michigan next year. He flipped his commitment from Harvard earlier this year.