Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Draft - Shall We Begin?

[FLYguy3911]

I personally wouldn't take Tkachuk over Svechnikov, but Brady is going to be a great pro so I don't think Button is going to look that silly.

With him playing that much, it should help him a bit for the NHL to get used to even 20 minutes a game, if need be. While the NHL is a much stronger and harder game, I think he could do it, but we'll see. But yeah, even if you are playing 30+ minutes a night, the fact that you're 33 points above 2nd place on your team says a lot more about the player's skill than just TOI.

Well just about every prospect is physically capable of playing 20 minutes a night these days. Playing that many minutes in Junior, kids tend to take shortcuts and can develop some bad habits. But I was just making a point that his point totals, while impressive, they may not be truly indicative of his true talent level. London is notorious for riding their top guys with crazy usage. Usually it's a forward (or 3). This year it just happened to be a defenseman after Thomas got traded. He had almost 300 shots on goal as a defenseman. That's an absurd number, but I don't know if it's a good thing or a bad thing.

 

[Psuhockey]

I believe Magua wrote a somewhat lengthy paragraph or paragraphs expressing his discontent for Wilde. Could be wrong though, I'm growing more senile everyday.

Ok. Will have to look for that. The Flyers will likely have 2 picks between 14-19. I think it’s a pretty good bet they take a defenseman with one of those. Just trying to see whom might be their target. Knowing the Flyers, it will be a late riser, with a good under 18s and slightly off the board.

 

[Chinatown88]

Ok. Will have to look for that. The Flyers will likely have 2 picks between 14-19. I think it’s a pretty good bet they take a defenseman with one of those. Just trying to see whom might be their target. Knowing the Flyers, it will be a late riser, with a good under 18s and slightly off the board.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/142379489/

 

[Strawberry Fields]

I see that Kotkaniemi is playing for Assat. If we draft him, he can play for Asshat. Synergy.

I remember using them in NHL 06 once or twice and their scoreboard abbreviation in the game was just "ASS"

 

[Magua]

I don't think Bouchard is a top 10 player. I just don't, and I've written my overly long blurb before. I see the points, and it certainly doesn't make me MORE confident in my projection, but I see what I see. All the remarks about his super inflated usage on London stand. And the entire London offense is predicated around just giving him shots. He definitely freewheels out there with a perma-green light. Cycle it up to him, blast, repeat. It would make Hakstol proud. To borrow a phrase, I watch him and think, "Where does he win?" At least to the extent of a top 10 pick, I don't think his puck skills, skating, and other attributes match up to that point total in terms of projection. He is nowhere near as dynamic as that indicates. I think he does things well, like passing, but I get the vibe he will need to simplify his game. And at that point, what are you drafting?

As for Bode Wilde, I will eat my own hand if I'm not right on that. I see positive attributes to Bouchard that still could make him a 2nd pair defender or something. I think he's overrated but still a fine player; if I'm wrong, it won't be fully. I think Wilde is a future bust. He looks like absolute dog shit every time I watch, and I am very very skeptical he has the brains to be an NHL d-man, and his tools aren't as good as they are purported to be. I don't think I can be more clear. Playing against teens his brain short-circuits, especially with the puck. And for an offensive d-man, yikes.

 

[Psuhockey]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/posts/142379489/

That’s pretty scathing. Curious why he is high on just about everyone’s list.

 

[Chinatown88]

What about the other Bouchard?

 

[Psuhockey]

I don't think Bouchard is a top 10 player. I just don't, and I've written my overly long blurb before. I see the points, and it certainly doesn't make me MORE confident in my projection, but I see what I see. All the remarks about his super inflated usage on London stand. And the entire London offense is predicated around just giving him shots. He definitely freewheels out there with a perma-green light. Cycle it up to him, blast, repeat. It would make Hakstol proud. To borrow a phrase, I watch him and think, "Where does he win?" At least to the extent of a top 10 pick, I don't think his puck skills, skating, and other attributes match up to that point total in terms of projection. He is nowhere near as dynamic as that indicates. I think he does things well, like passing, but I get the vibe he will need to simplify his game. And at that point, what are you drafting?

As for Bode Wilde, I will eat my own hand if I'm not right on that. I see positive attributes to Bouchard that still could make him a 2nd pair defender or something. I think he's overrated but still a fine player; if I'm wrong, it won't be fully. I think Wilde is a future bust. He looks like absolute dog **** every time I watch, and I am very very skeptical he has the brains to be an NHL d-man, and his tools aren't as good as they are purported to be. I don't think I can be more clear. Playing against teens his brain short-circuits.

What defensemen do you like in the Flyers range of picks?

 

[Magua]

Craig's List: Bouchard rocketing up draft board - Article - TSN

Bouchard at 5.

It's like he still hasn't changed half of it from Hlinka.

Super aggressive with that Noel ranking. I like him more than I've left on watching him more closely these last couple months. Didn't like him at Hlinka and not usually my type either, but I changed my mind. I don't think I'd draft him at either of OUR picks, and I'm not sure the Flyers would anyway, but he'll be fascinating to keep tabs on. I joke to myself that if you combined Ratcliffe and Noel in one body, it's legitimately Blake Wheeler. But each does things better than the other, and I think Noel is nowhere near as safe given the parts he lacks.

You watch as much SSM as anyone, what do you think about Hayton?

 

[FLYguy3911]

You watch as much SSM as anyone, what do you think about Hayton?

Honestly I watch SSM with other games on most of the time. I usually zone out when Frost isn't on the ice.

Hayton flashes top 10 ability every once in a while, but I definitely wouldn't feel great picking him in the top 10 like Button would.

 

[Magua]

That’s pretty scathing. Curious why he is high on just about everyone’s list.

I'm curious too. Teams regularly draft disappointments and busts. It happens. No team drafts a kid high thinking he won't pan out. I try my best -- and am trying even harder this year -- to tune out consensus and trust my thoughts. But I'm screaming into the void with this Wilde-thing. Tippett was much the same for me last year, but guys like Button were really low on him too. I had validation. I feel like I'm not in on a joke with Bode Wilde.

What defensemen do you like in the Flyers range of picks?

I don't think there's a d-man in our range, except Ty Smith and Rasmus Sandin (and he might be more a trade-down candidate), who I actually like. Smith's size/frame is worrying me a little more than it did earlier, but he just does so much right. Insanely heady even in his own end, high end skater, excellent passer and puck handler. Like I think he could have Spurgeon upside, though he's got an inch or two on him.

Dahlin, Boqvist, Dobson, Hughes aren't happening, though I'm not totally sure where Hughes goes, as size can be a funny thing -- actually really surprised Button has him this low. I'm a touch skeptical the Flyers would even target him if he fell into their laps at #12 or something, even if I think that'd be really dumb. I do expect him gone though.

I expect Bouchard to be gone before the Blues pick and am less high on him than others. Wilde.....'nuf said. McIsaac, who my watches are a little old on so need to go back, disappointed me with his inconsistency, after I touted him pre-season. Woo has been injured half the year and buried on a deep Moose Jaw team. I still like him, but he might be a late 1st at best. Same goes with Mattias Samuelsson. I worried that the Flyers might like Alexyev too much (I'm not a big fan), but they may pick too high to even target him now anyway. Merkley is a future bust. I mean that basically covers everyone. I do need to watch this Nicolas Beaudin kid though, but he's probably not a target in the 11-20 range either.

 

[macleish1974]

Hayton has not been putting up points because he is really hurting. About London and Bouchard......boy ......did you nail it! Foudy's job is to dig out the puck and get it back to Bouchard and if lucky enough take the beating in front of the net, screen and tip it in. But he is fast and does really good board work. And Regula, poor guy, 18 year old who was thrown in with Bouchard as 1-D pairing learning along the way plus clean up all defensive guffaws of Bouchard. So Foudy and Regula are my sleeper picks. Dunkley good player but makes Lehtera look like a little Deuce coupe.......with a flathead mill and 4 on the floor......OK....if you did not see the Beach Boys in 1963 like me.....not sure whether anyone will understand the reference. .......

 

[BigToe]

I'm curious too. Teams regularly draft disappointments and busts. It happens. No team drafts a kid high thinking he won't pan out. I try my best -- and am trying even harder this year -- to tune out consensus and trust my thoughts. But I'm screaming into the void with this Wilde-thing. Tippett was much the same for me last year, but guys like Button were really low on him too. I had validation. I feel like I'm not in on a joke with Bode Wilde.



I don't think there's a d-man in our range, except Ty Smith and Rasmus Sandin (and he might be more a trade-down candidate), who I actually like. Smith's size/frame is worrying me a little more than it did earlier, but he just does so much right. Insanely heady even in his own end, high end skater, excellent passer and puck handler. Like I think he could have Spurgeon upside, though he's got an inch or two on him.

Dahlin, Boqvist, Dobson, Hughes aren't happening, though I'm not totally sure where Hughes goes, as size can be a funny thing -- actually really surprised Button has him this low. I'm a touch skeptical the Flyers would even target him if he fell into their laps at #12 or something, even if I think that'd be really dumb. I do expect him gone though.

I expect Bouchard to be gone before the Blues pick and am less high on him than others. Wilde.....'nuf said. McIsaac, who my watches are a little old on so need to go back, disappointed me with his inconsistency, after I touted him pre-season. Woo has been injured half the year and buried on a deep Moose Jaw team. I still like him, but he might be a late 1st at best. Same goes with Mattias Samuelsson. I worried that the Flyers might like Alexyev too much (I'm not a big fan), but they may pick too high to even target him now anyway. Merkley is a future bust. I mean that basically covers everyone. I do need to watch this Nicolas Beaudin kid though, but he's probably not a target in the 11-20 range either.

Hughes dropping to us would make me happier than when Konecny dropped to us.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I do need to watch this Nicolas Beaudin kid though, but he's probably not a target in the 11-20 range either.

That's a tough forecast to make, especially with Hextall, where we have history of moving in both directions within the first and going for those some called reaches. Hextall is not afraid to take a guy at the top of his range.

The question is really where the tier dropoff comes. Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk, and Boqvist are the mortal lock cut (or two or three) aboves to me. Who are we supremely confident fits on that next tier? I'm just throwing the names out to make a point, but let's go with something like Dobson, Bouchard, Hayton, Veleno, Wahlstrom, Hughes, Farabee, and Kupari. Now we're getting into preference as early as 14. Are you confident in another 6ish guys being on that tier? I just tend to think things are more fluid than they seem going by top lists or mocks once we get into and beyond the back end of the lottery in general.

 

[Stizzle]

Hughes dropping to us would make me happier than when Konecny dropped to us.

Call me crazy, but I don't see the big appeal. Maybe if you're really hard up for a PP QB, but that sure isn't us.

Woo has been injured half the year and buried on a deep Moose Jaw team. I still like him, but he might be a late 1st at best.

The forgotten factor is something I find intriguing. Sometimes these guys can make good value picks. Everyone knows this kid is good. He's just lost some luster. Not because of poor performance. Just injuries and lack of PP opportunity on a team with a deep, high-end defensive core.

Admittedly, I may be reaching for an excuse to draft a RHD. I've stated several times I'd like to snag one. Woo is listed top 30 in pretty much every list except this one. He's also a July birthday, which helps his case. As of now, I have this guy circled as a prime candidate for our pick.

Oh, and he's from Manitoba. So that's like extra big bonus points from Flyers scouts.

 

[Magua]

That's a tough forecast to make, especially with Hextall, where we have history of moving in both directions within the first and going for those some called reaches. Hextall is not afraid to take a guy at the top of his range.

The question is really where the tier dropoff comes. Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk, and Boqvist are the mortal lock cut (or two or three) aboves to me. Who are we supremely confident fits on that next tier? I'm just throwing the names out to make a point, but let's go with something like Dobson, Bouchard, Hayton, Veleno, Wahlstrom, Hughes, Farabee, and Kupari. Now we're getting into preference as early as 14. Are you confident in another 6ish guys being on that tier? I just tend to think things are more fluid than they seem going by top lists or mocks once we get into and beyond the back end of the lottery in general.

There's fluidity with this stuff, and I agree that by the mid-1st things could get interesting in a draft that I think got overhyped, especially for NA prospects, and loses consensus quickly (could quibble with a few names but that's not the point).

But Beaudin isn't even graded as a 2nd right now by most services. He's also an undersized defender (which I don't think is Hextall's M.O. and lessens stock anyway). I could watch him and really like him -- or not! I'll get on that -- but I'm skeptical he'd go in our range on draft day, even as a reach. There's reaches, like him sneaking in the very late 1st, and then REACHES, where value is totally cast aside (see: Bruins). But if the Flyers target a reach and trade down, it doesn't void what I just said either. Him being among those ~6 names seems a stretch. But I don't think anyone here has even watched him, so we're debating over a phantom player.

I'd think what you said applies more for someone like Sandin. Not many have him as a 1st round, besides HP and Button, but he has a lot more word of mouth hype, will play a big role on a Mem Cup team. He's someone I could see a team reaching on in the top 20. I'm not sure it will happen......but it could. I keep saying it, but Alexeyev I'm afraid is the Flyers reach-on defender the further down they pick. Size, WHL, nice point totals, not unskilled but bland and shades passive, has late 1st-early 2nd buzz, so taking him #20 isn't a big leap. Samuelsson isn't a stretch either from late 20s to top 20, and HP has him top 20. I like him and he's almost pro-ready, but lack of upside would be my knock. Those are guys who I think fit the bill of your description.

 

[baudib1]

@Magua or anyone else...have you seen Pronman's take on Denisenko, and do you have any thoughts on him? Sounds like a good Flyers fit. Russian winger, extremely high-end puckhandling, skating, vision, IQ, didn't put up massive point totals. Pronman likes him as a top 10 pick anyway.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

Magua, Stizzle, Flyguy, Jojo all comparing notes.

Makes my pants tight as shit.

 

[Magua]

I forgot to mention K'Andre Miller btw. I think he's a late 1st, but I think his upside isn't as high as his tools show. Also think there are smarter players. I've written about him more at length.

Call me crazy, but I don't see the big appeal. Maybe if you're really hard up for a PP QB, but that sure isn't us.

Don't think it'll matter come draft day, but he'd be BPA over need to the nth degree. He'd have no room to flourish here. I wrote a lot about him during that Michigan-OSU game in our Prospects Thread, and it's not entirely rosy, but I do think he has special (don't use that lightly) offensive mental and physical abilities that go beyond being an elite PP QB.

The forgotten factor is something I find intriguing. Sometimes these guys can make good value picks. Everyone knows this kid is good. He's just lost some luster. Not because of poor performance. Just injuries and lack of PP opportunity on a team with a deep, high-end defensive core.

Admittedly, I may be reaching for an excuse to draft a RHD. I've stated several times I'd like to snag one. Woo is listed top 30 in pretty much every list except this one. He's also a July birthday, which helps his case. As of now, I have this guy circled as a prime candidate for our pick.

Oh, and he's from Manitoba. So that's like extra big bonus points from Flyers scouts.

I've been #TeamWoo. I watched a lot of Moose Jaw last year, liked his 0-point Hlinka, I called him a poor man's Provorov in the past, I'm a fan. But I don't love his offensive upside either. He's rather basic o-zone in, without great scoring instincts. I don't think he's even a good PP QB when I've seen him there. Part of his nice fit would be not needing it in the NHL: just ES and PK. But everything else is quality. He's a real smart player who does a lot of little things right in each zone to drive play forward. Real physical too, but he's like a 5'11 200+lbs bull.

I guess, as always, it depends who is there and where we pick. I know people want a d-man, but I don't want to force one either. And I think I prefer Sandin. I think he will be a good value pick on draft day but not sure top 20 is value and think there should still be a few better players up for grabs. But if we took a d-man with our pick, I certainly wouldn't hate it either.

 

[BigToe]

Call me crazy, but I don't see the big appeal. Maybe if you're really hard up for a PP QB, but that sure isn't us.

Love guys that play the way he does. I see him as a lot more than a pp qb, unless he’s being coached by someone that won’t let him play his game. Kinda like our coach.....

 

[Magua]

@Magua or anyone else...have you seen Pronman's take on Denisenko, and do you have any thoughts on him? Sounds like a good Flyers fit. Russian winger, extremely high-end puckhandling, skating, vision, IQ, didn't put up massive point totals. Pronman likes him as a top 10 pick anyway.

We don't like Pronman much 'round here. I think I speak for everyone when I say we think he's a mediocre talent evaluator who evaluates with no consistency and falls into trappings unbefitting a paid professional, namely being blind to superficial skill and overrating it to hockey ability. And then randomly not caring for some reason if you're good at both.

To your question, Denisenko seems like the antithesis of a Flyers pick. When I've watched him I haven't disliked him as a riskier pick, but he's not close to top 10 for me. I wrote this a couple weeks ago:

For whatever reason, he has shown basically no growth in his MHL numbers from last year. 22 points in 31 games is flat-out mediocre for a dynamic, potential high pick with his hype. Loko Yaroslavl is one of the top teams and scoring teams in the MHL, so that's not a reason (he plays ~2nd line and PP1 from my viewings). As I said, his WJAC holds a lot of weight. I'm sure his u18s next month will be big for his stock too. If you want to use a high pick on him, you have to be able to explain away his season. I'm not sure anyone has besides chalking it up to "inconsistency." Then you have to explain why you're confident it will go away. Drafting smaller, mercurial players high is a risky proposition, exponentially so when they aren't doing the primary thing they should: scoring. He really doesn't strike me as a player the Flyers would pick anyway. But I'm curious to see where he goes on draft day. I do wonder, barring a huge u18s, if there's a chance he slips to the 2nd. That lowers the risk factor.

I find it hard to pinpoint my exact issue when watching him. For an undersized finesse player I don't demand you be a defensive wizard or physical presence.........but I would expect you to routinely dominate your shifts offensively. He doesn't do it enough. But I don't think he's remotely low IQ. I think his positioning is generally fine off puck, and he understands how to cycle. He's a floater like skilled wingers float, but it's not a matter of being lost on the ice. He'll move pucks, though sometimes it feels like he moves them TOO quick, as in he could do more with his ability but isn't attacking enough.

Low motor? Warmer. He does have an air of passivity at times; no one would confuse him with "gritty." On big ice that can fly better than small ice. He can be a bit disengaged off the puck, little too reach happy instead of using his body, sometimes too perimeter........but not enough where it's a no-go because he does show it in spurts, and with the puck he can come alive. It's why I don't dislike him. He shows you the pieces. I hate dumb players outright; he's not dumb. As it goes with him, you just don't know what you'll get shift to shift, let alone game to game. It doesn't feel like he plays with the puck enough (usually a telltale sign for skilled guys) or control his shifts to me. There's your "inconsistency."

His games are here (МХЛ) if you're interested. #14 on Локо.

Footnote: I think every time someone asks me about someone I wrote a long blurb already......just use the thread search tool, people!

 

[JojoTheWhale]

There's fluidity with this stuff, and I agree that by the mid-1st things could get interesting in a draft that I think got overhyped, especially for NA prospects, and loses consensus quickly (could quibble with a few names but that's not the point).

But Beaudin isn't even graded as a 2nd right now by most services. He's also an undersized defender (which I don't think is Hextall's M.O. and lessens stock anyway). I could watch him and really like him -- or not! I'll get on that -- but I'm skeptical he'd go in our range on draft day, even as a reach. There's reaches, like him sneaking in the very late 1st, and then REACHES, where value is totally cast aside (see: Bruins). But if the Flyers target a reach and trade down, it doesn't void what I just said either. Him being among those ~6 names seems a stretch. But I don't think anyone here has even watched him, so we're debating over a phantom player.

I'd think what you said applies more for someone like Sandin. Not many have him as a 1st round, besides HP and Button, but he has a lot more word of mouth hype, will play a big role on a Mem Cup team. He's someone I could see a team reaching on in the top 20. I'm not sure it will happen......but it could. I keep saying it, but Alexeyev I'm afraid is the Flyers reach-on defender the further down they pick. Size, WHL, nice point totals, not unskilled but bland and shades passive, has late 1st-early 2nd buzz, so taking him #20 isn't a big leap. Samuelsson isn't a stretch either from late 20s to top 20, and HP has him top 20. I like him and he's almost pro-ready, but lack of upside would be my knock. Those are guys who I think fit the bill of your description.

Yeah, perhaps I didn't pick the right hill to climb with respect to that particular point. I was kind of clear that I meant it as more of a general discussion, but I should have really pounded it home.

Fans in general often talk of draft position as if it's fluid only when it suits our points -- Oh just move down if there are 5 guys left on a rough consensus tier. Getting your guy has value. When you're drafting for as many years out as you do in hockey, you can't manipulate a board like you can in the NFL. It's the same discussion to me last year's hypothetical of Poehling potentially falling to a range where the Flyers could move up to get him. Where does the generic board get fluid for a period? Once you get to that point, I don't think draft slot is still a concern. Get your guy if you have one.

Magua, Stizzle, Flyguy all comparing notes.

Makes my pants tight as ****.

I think the most interesting part of quasi group discussions like this is that you get generally knowledgeable people with completely different avenues of attack and if you're not ignorant enough to close yourself off to it, you can learn a hell of a lot you can apply going forward.

Those guys (and others) are all much better at thinking like a player or scout than I am and this is not at all a false modesty thing. I look at everything like a team exec would because I thought I wanted to be an NFL GM growing up. That's always the angle that interested me most. Then I found out what low level team exec salaries were like, how poor the job security was, and the likelihood of getting above that level.

 

[baudib1]

We don't like Pronman much 'round here. I think I speak for everyone when I say we think he's a mediocre talent evaluator who evaluates with no consistency and falls into trappings unbefitting a paid professional, namely being blind to superficial skill and overrating it to hockey ability. And then randomly not caring for some reason if you're good at both.

To your question, Denisenko seems like the antithesis of a Flyers pick. When I've watched him I haven't disliked him as a riskier pick, but he's not close to top 10 for me. I wrote this a couple weeks ago:



Footnote: I think every time someone asks me about someone I wrote a long blurb already......just use the thread search tool, people!

Thanks for your response. I just recently started reading Pronman because I have a sub for The Athletic. I just noted in the past that he always seemed to be very high on guys the Flyers drafted.

The reason I thought Denisenko could be a Flyers type guy is he's seems to be (according to Pronman), a smart, two-way player with upside and special teams potential.

 

[baudib1]

Maneuvering in the NFL draft is a lot easier to do than in the NHL for lots of reasons. While there are surprises, it's generally known what teams are interested in what players. I think NFL GMs talk to each other a lot more than their NHL counterparts, and the organizations a lot tighter lipped in the NHL. Also, you can easily track stuff like team visits.

NFL teams are much more likely to draft for need because their picks are expected to contribute immediately, and there are some guys who simply aren't fits because of system or signed players (you don't draft a 4-3 DT if you run a 3-4; you don't take a QB in the first round if you have Carson Wentz, etc).

 

[deadhead]

I have no idea about these prospects and won't even look at anything until June.
But I can say one thing with confidence:

The Flyer draft board will be full of high IQ types and absent any players who lack awareness, have hot and cold motors, lack work ethic, etc.
[Sanheim and Konecny are not low IQ guys, they're just not in the same league with Provorov, Patrick and Frost]

I think Hextall feels there's a market inefficiency he can exploit, a lot of scouts are enamored of the highly skilled offensive players who shine in juniors and college hockey, and overrate these players. Whereas USHL, SHL, KHL are underrated because they're not as conducive to "flash." Guys who mature early jump out, while there are hidden gems among 17-18 year olds who have the work ethic to build their bodies as they mature.

In the same fashion, "smart" players often don't look as good at lower levels because they slow the game down, and on film, that doesn't jump out at you unless you know what to look for, the same way a smart two way player doing little things like back checking, maintaining proper gaps, etc., isn't going to be as obvious.

I think he tends to avoid "smurfs," but he's not afraid to take chances on undersized players with physical growth potential (i.e. Lycksell, Frost, Konecny, Cates, Kase).

So the ideal Hextall player is an underrated Swede who is a smart two way player with limited production because he's just now growing into his body - i.e. Lycksell last summer. It's hard to find a player he's taken who wasn't his "type," Rubtsov and Leberge may be disappointments so far, but they match his prototype. At worst there's a good chance they end up as solid 3rd line two way wingers.

So if I wanted to predict Hextall, I'd put together a Flyers board which only included Hextall types, then try to guess where other teams will take these players - and that will tell you when Hextall will move up or down.