Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Draft - Shall We Begin?

[whitstifier]

Was looking at some names last night. There’s a lot of quality defense prospects in this draft it seems. Some right handed shots too.

K’Andre Miller was a guy previously discussed on here. He picked his scoring up lately. He’s over a PPG in their USHL games.

Pretty interested in Miller. Most of his scoring is concentrated in 3 games, though (from 11/12-11/18)

 

[Chinatown88]

Veleno got traded to Drummondville. Wonder if a change of scenery will help him improve his draft stock.

Also, Jett Woo got injured.

 

[whitstifier]

Veleno got traded to Drummondville. Wonder if a change of scenery will help him improve his draft stock.

Also, Jett Woo got injured.

Hopefully not a concussion... However, this may be good for your dream of drafting him later!

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Svechnikov is on NHL Network right now. Serron Noel is probably the other key draft eligible player in the game playing for Oshawa.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Allan McShane too.

 

[daynus]

I think with our schedule we will be in the wheelhouse around #10. Guys in that range, Kupari, but we haven’t drafted a Fin in a long time, Farabee and Wahlstrom, a couple American, national development guys, but we heavily favor CHL guys. Brodie Wilde a two way rd, another guy in US development. So it’s sounds like not a great draft for Canada. Is this a year we go heavy euros and Americans and light on Canadians. I would also not be shocked if we nabbed that hot Czech goalie in rd 2.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Caught some of the first WJAC game and Jonny Tychonick looks like someone to keep an eye on. Little undersized but can really skate and handle the puck and get up in the rush. Always hard to gauge the talent level at these tournaments but he stood out from the very first shift. Committed to North Dakota.

 

[Appleyard]

I feel pretty confident that with the 2x 1st's and the 2nd rounder they are going to get some serious players.

The top ~50 in this draft is just fantastic. And I think the middle rounds will have some high floor Euros with serious potential due to a few perceived flaws that bomb them more than they would a North American.

 

[Rebels57]

I feel pretty confident that with the 2x 1st's and the 2nd rounder they are going to get some serious players.

The top ~50 in this draft is just fantastic. And I think the middle rounds will have some high floor Euros with serious potential due to a few perceived flaws that bomb them more than they would a North American.

Would you trade our 1st, 2nd and 3rd (retaining the STL pick) to get into the top 5?

 

[Richards18Forever]

Would you trade our 1st, 2nd and 3rd (retaining the STL pick) to get into the top 5?

Yes Sir!

 

[Appleyard]

Would you trade our 1st, 2nd and 3rd (retaining the STL pick) to get into the top 5?

Depends how it fell. Though I guess one of Zadina or Tkachuk would pretty much guaranteed to be there... in which case yes... because with both I am pretty sure you are getting a close to guaranteed 1st line, ~60+ point winger.

 

[Magua]

Would you trade our 1st, 2nd and 3rd (retaining the STL pick) to get into the top 5?

I'll preface this with saying I still think we end up in the 9-13 range........

The Flyers just traded a 2nd+3rd+4th to move up from 44 to 35 to take Ratcliffe (which wasn't ideal value fwiw). Do you think a team would take a similar trade (just shifted 1 round higher) to move down a handful of picks in the high 1st round? Flyers would do that in a heartbeat to move up. I know a pick value chart will probably say moving from 10 to 5 with a 2nd+3rd is not far from equal value......but it's just not. Those charts always underestimate the value of top picks given they are never moved for a package of picks. Their value might as well be doubled. Teams covet players that high and would rather bank on getting "their guy." Even if the Flyers were willing to trade something closer to realistic fair value, the team trading down might just pass. Those trades don't happen.

Ignoring that 10 for 11 swap between NJ and Ottawa a couple years back, the last time a team within the top 10 engaged in such a trade was 2008 -- and it happened twice that year actually. 2007 was the last time a top 10 pick was swapped as part of a quantity pick deal for a non-top 10 pick. And those are just top 10, not top 5. Trading a top pick for an NHL player straight up or in a package for maybe a lottery pick is more plausible than pick packaging.

 

[Rebels57]

I'll preface this with saying I still think we end up in the 9-13 range........

The Flyers just traded a 2nd+3rd+4th to move up from 44 to 35 to take Ratcliffe (which wasn't ideal value fwiw). Do you think a team would take a similar trade (just shifted 1 round higher) to move down a handful of picks in the high 1st round? Flyers would do that in a heartbeat to move up. I know a pick value chart will probably say moving from 10 to 5 with a 2nd+3rd is not far from equal value......but it's just not. Those charts always underestimate the value of top picks given they are never moved for a package of picks. Their value might as well be doubled. Teams covet players that high and would rather bank on getting "their guy." Even if the Flyers were willing to trade something closer to realistic fair value, the team trading down might just pass. Those trades don't happen.

Ignoring that 10 for 11 swap between NJ and Ottawa a couple years back, the last time a team within the top 10 engaged in such a trade was 2008 -- and it happened twice that year actually. 2007 was the last time a top 10 pick was swapped as part of a quantity pick deal for a non-top 10 pick. And those are just top 10, not top 5. Trading a top pick for an NHL player straight up or in a package for maybe a lottery pick is more plausible than pick packaging.

What if we did our 2018 1st, our 2018 2nd, and our 2019 2nd for lets say, the 5th overall pick? I'm not talking about likelihood of it happening, just simply value wise.

 

[Magua]

What if we did our 2018 1st, our 2018 2nd, and our 2019 2nd for lets say, the 5th overall pick? I'm not talking about likelihood of it happening, just simply value wise.

Where would we be picking? Because every single pick spot matters in value. I don't believe a team would want to move down 4-5 spots at the tip-top of the draft for a couple ~mid 2nds.

It's hard to separate value from likelihood because the latter affects the former. You'd have to blow a team away most likely to buck the trend, and it would have to be the right team that is targeting someone later and wants quantity. And it is a solid depth draft. But again, at that high in the draft, teams zero in on specific players and don't want to miss out by trading down. I don't see a realistic value trade that doesn't include both 1sts minimum. And the odds of it happening on both ends are low.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

2018 Sherwin-Williams CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game Rosters – Sherwin-Williams CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game

 

[Magua]

2018 Sherwin-Williams CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game Rosters – Sherwin-Williams CHL/NHL Top Prospects Game

Calen Addison, Kevin Bahl, Noah Dobson, Jared McIsaac, Ty Smith, Jett Woo.

VS.

Alexander Alexeyev, Evan Bouchard, Xavier Bouchard, Nico Gross, Ryan Merkley, Rasmus Sandin.


Lol that's just not fair.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Cherry always has the shitty team.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

 

[Magua]

Seeing Moncton, I'm remembering Khovanov is supposed to return for the 2nd half. That's exciting, given his pre-season billing as a top 5-10 pick. Obviously he'd need to get up to speed and it may take a while, but he's an interesting steal candidate.

 

[deadhead]

Given what we already have in the system, unless the player is an absolute lock, is trading up really that valuable to the Flyers at this point. I'd think quantity drafting (maybe trading up from the 2nd rd pick ), building up talent for 2020-22, would allow more flexibility in packing current prospects who might be blocked by then for NHL talent.

 

[Magua]

I've been starting to get on my prospects watching horse of late, and truth be told, I'm having more trouble than I thought finding guys I unabashedly like, even up high. A lot of hyped guys have given me disappointing watches or sore spots in their games. I could write some short stuff another time about some guys. But I've been silent for awhile so thought I'd write a blurb about my thoughts on Noah Dobson (RD) since he was on TV today for many, and I do unabashedly like him. I feel good saying right now he is likely my #3 d-man. Most scouting services still have him ~#15+, but that will change and soon. Beginning of the year, I thought he could be a St. Louis pick, now he's in contention for OUR pick, if we draft top 10........and we still might miss him.

As some know, I really value consistency and IQ and controlling play, which are all linked. Dobson is the type of player you can watch a couple viewings and come away impressed and confident he's a good player, but you keep watching and watching, and there's no bend to his game. Ever. In shifts, in games. He's a true 3-zone play controller from the back end. Those are not common. If you named Hampus Lindholm as a potential comparison, I'd think that's not half-bad.

I compared Mattias Samuelsson, in some ways, to Dobson a while ago, and in some aspects that's true (DZ/NZ) -- and Mattias is a solid player in his own right -- but Dobson is a more willing offensive player who wants to be the one to make plays. That's the difference to me that vaults him up. He wants to be The Guy, either trailing the rush or in the o-zone. Perhaps playing on a less deep blue-line where he can do so factors in, but so be it. Better on the PP too.

Now, I don't think he possesses projectable "high end" o-zone skills, like a few others in contention in that area of the draft. He's a good, fluid skater at 6'3 and can get a head of steam, but he's not Sanheim (or Myers) either, especially in the footwork. Won't walk the line or anything or do a ton of creative stuff. He shoots a metric ton and has a good shot (loves wristing them), but a lot of them are from far away and not exactly danger areas, though he pops up at times down low when you don't expect. His low scoring numbers for how many shots he takes aren't entirely fluky (certainly a bit!) in that he's a volume guy more than anything. But he gets them on net constantly and picks up a ton of greasy opportunities for his forwards with his shot. He's got good feel and the ability to create chances with it. That's sort of how I'd describe Provy too fwiw, though Ivan is a bit better skater, especially laterally.

Excellent passer too, especially in transition, where he always always looks for the controlled exit and can use his body or stickhandling to create one even when there isn't. Gaps are tight, pinches are smart, defense is lock down, and he uses his body well to separate players in tight (maybe not quite as well as Samuelsson, but Dobson isn't as heavy), and has every single piece that could make up a top pair, all situation play driver. He plays like a total pro. Again, he won't blow you away with highlight stuff or in single viewings. What he is is effective as hell and all the time.

 

[Striiker]

Appreciate the information.

I don't get to watch the CHL so it's nice to see stuff like this.

 

[Magua]

I have many thoughts on many players running through my scattershot mind right now, some old names and new names. Maybe sometime this week I’ll give my current thoughts on a bunch of others. I’ll try to keep my thoughts more brief on each!*

Do want to just get off my chest that I am absolutely loving my Ty Smith viewings right now. I’ve always been a fan of watching Spokane, but he makes me want to watch just for him. I already knew he was good (especially his feet), though I wasn’t entirely sure of my read on him overall beyond that, but really zooming in on him has been a delight. Size is not NOT an issue at a thin 5’10-5’11, but he’s becoming a favorite of mine, even defensively with his great reads and compete.




*jk

 

[daynus]

It sure looked top 10 especially after that 10 game winless streak. If we continue to surge and stay close to a playoff spot, our picks would then be 17 or so and 20 something St. Louis.

 

[Chinatown88]

Hockey Prospects December rankings.

HockeyProspect.com 2018 NHL Draft Rankings Top 62, December Edition - HockeyProspect.com | 2018 NHL Draft