World Cup: 2018 FIFA World Cup

[Moncherry]

lol nah, it’s just my big hot take for this tourney. I think Spain wins the opener convincingly which puts them behind the 8 ball and I think both Iran & Morocco are really under-rated. Iran just rolled through Asia and their golden generation is starting to hit their mid 20s.

While Morocco has a lot of interesting dual nationals to build their midfield around with Ziyech, Harit, Belhanda, Boufal, etc. I love Ziyech & Harit in particular but they have a lot of other creatives who are very streaky and can be very dangerous when hot. Coming off a win at the African nations championship and suceeding in a tough qualifying group, they’re in strong form as well.

I’m actually optimistic that with this new generation we’ll see Portugal play much better football and make some noise as more than a bunkering side, but if I had to pick a team to **** the bed it would be them. That combo of likely loss in the opener, with two tough teams still to face, just gives me 2014 vibes from them.

México & England would be my other tips, but I don’t think people would be too shocked to see México lose out to the Swedes...especially since our pattern at WMs is to win the opener bigly, before drawing the second match against a physical team who are bigger than us, plays against Mexico. And England ****ting the bed even in that group wouldn’t actually be a shock.

For what it's worth, I don't Portugal is a lock to advance either. Morocco is going to be a difficult game after they probably lose to Spain. On the other hand, I'm not really worried about Iran.

 

[cgf]

They do, I was talking specifically about the top contenders though. Other than Spain I don't think any of those would be defined as such in those respective tournaments. But our definition of contender and flop may vary.

France 2010 & Italy 2014 may not have been top favorites, but they were tier 2 favorites that had the talent to make noise if they performed. Those were major flops...not quite as major as Spain 2014 or France/the Netherlands 2002...but those were still shocking results

 

[koyvoo]

Portugal’s group stage exist in 2002 must’ve been bigger shocker than Holland in 2002.

Thar Portuguese generation made semifinals or better in 3 out 4 straight tournaments (2000,2004,2006) aside from that strange 2002 tournament and they knocked Holland out 3 out 4 of those tournaments as well (2002 from a qualifying group).

France and Argentina’s first round follies in 2002 I would also rate as more shocking than Holland’s

 

[Moncherry]

France 2010 & Italy 2014 may not have been top favorites, but they were tier 2 favorites that had the talent to make noise if they performed. Those were major flops...not quite as major as Spain 2014 or France/the Netherlands 2002...but those were still shocking results

I take their groups into consideration. For France in 2010, losing out to Uruguay and Mexico wasn't that improbable to me.

Italy seems like they're always at risk of going out in the first round, albeit what Costa Rica did was shocking. Actually if you want to talk about flops in regards to Italy, their 2010 campaign was a disaster.

Anyway, I'll backtrack on my comment about flops, I was mostly just clearing up my thoughts about France.

Portugal’s group stage exist in 2002 must’ve been bigger shocker than Holland in 2002.

Thar Portuguese generation made semifinals or better in 3 out 4 straight tournaments (2000,2004,2006) aside from that strange 2002 tournament and they knocked Holland out 3 out four of those tournaments as well (2002 from a qualifying group).

France and Argentina’s first round follies in 2002 I would also rate as more shocking than Holland’s

2002 was a catastrophe for Portugal. I think they were actually viewed as a true contender pre-tournament, potentially the best squad they ever had at a World Cup, in an easy group, and they crashed out.

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

I can see that...if they make it past them. I think there’s a very real chance that Messi does what everyone who conveniently forgets about Burruchaga, Ruggeri & co. claims Maradona did in 86. Which is why I think Argentina has the best chance to win it all outside of the big 4, but I can also see them crash out early if he doesn’t just take over match after match for them...or if the training camp isn’t enough for Sampaoli to get them to play his way around Leo.

A couple of things...Argentina silly is the crown jewel of the top 4. Other nations are envious of her impregnable defence.

But yeah, Sampa has chosen a relatively safe squad in that we know that players are capable of. Didn't try the youngsters were are just prime to break out in Ascacibar<3 or Paredes.

He'll get out of the group unscathed IMO and should beat the likes of Denmark. What comes next is Spain and Germany both are beatable but the stars have to aline for Messi and Dybala must get more than a couple of cameo appearances that I fear he will be getting.

Kun goes down to injury early (most likely) leaving Higuain as the 9 and ADM running wildly will injure himself it happened in the last 2 tournaments.

 

[cgf]

For what it's worth, I don't Portugal is a lock to advance either. Morocco is going to be a difficult game after they probably lose to Spain. On the other hand, I'm not really worried about Iran.

I can’t blame you, but the Iranians' cohesion and organization is an advantage for them over most NTs and could be enough for them to grind out 3 draws just on that...doesn’t hurt that I expect Spain to have the top of the group wrapped up before their match.

If a couple of their 21-26 yo have “break out” tournaments as well, I can even see them breaking Portugal’s spirits in that second match & winning it outright...though I’m expecting that match to end in a 1-1 draw after Iran ties Morocco in the opener.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I can’t blame you, but the Iranians cohesion and organization is an advantage for them over most NTs and could be enough for them to grind out 3 draws just on that...doesn’t hurt that I expect Spain to have the top of the group wrapped up before their match.

If a couple of their 22-25 yo have “break out” tournaments as well, I can even see them breaking Portugal’s spirits in that second match...though I’m expecting that match to end in a 1-1 draw after Iran draws Morocco in the opener.

That’s how I feel about Iceland. They’re so well coached and on the same page that they can really surprise some teams.

 

[cgf]

That’s how I feel about Iceland. They’re so well coached and on the same page that they can really surprise some teams.

It’s a huge factor internationally and why Croatia are never as good as they look on paper. A 3 week camp helps a lot, but it doesn’t compare to a well coached core that’s played together consistently throughout at least one qualifying cycle. That’s why Croatia using the NT as a way of highlighting youngsters for moves abroad has prevented their core from gelling the way the Chilean core did.

 

[The Abusement Park]

It’s a huge factor internationally and why Croatia are never as good as they look on paper. A 3 week camp helps a lot, but it doesn’t compare to a well coached core that’s played together consistently throughout at least one qualifying cycle. That’s why Croatia using the NT as a way of highlighting youngsters for moves abroad has prevented their core from gelling the way the Chilean core did.

During the Euro’s my parents were in Iceland for a ski trip and they were talking to the guide about the soccer team and about how well they were doing. And apparently like ~5-8 years ago their soccer federations completely revamp the soccer program and they basically only allow top licensed coaches to coach at every single level there. And it really looks like it’s working for them and even a country like Iran.

 

[GabeTravels]

My World Cup tickets arrived in the mail today!

Seeing 1B vs 2A in the Round of 16 Match in Moscow.

What do you guys think is the most likely matchup there?

Super excited.

 

[Live in the Now]

My World Cup tickets arrived in the mail today!

Seeing 1B vs 2A in the Round of 16 Match in Moscow.

What do you guys think is the most likely matchup there?

Super excited.

Egypt or Uruguay vs. Spain.

 

[cgf]

Egypt or Uruguay vs. Spain.

I'm doubtful Egypt advances, especially if Salah runs out of gas, as I have a tough time not picking the host nation to at least get out of the group...even if it requires some 2002-esque shenanigans...and I've already mentioned how high I am on Uruguay. So I've got Uruguay & Russia advancing from group A. Probably in that order, though my gut says that Uruguay are quite likely to start off slowly, while the Russians build a lot of momentum in their opening match thrashing of the Saudis.

Even before we remember that the Denisov generation that is phasing out has always choked because they were too cocky, we can say that this russian team isn't going to pull a 2008 and play beautiful football en route to a surprising run...despite the interesting young talents that they have called up (the Miranchuk brothers, Golovin, & Chalov) to bolster that 1989-91 born core...but there are some goals in them if their backend doesn't get exposed until the knockouts, and they will get a controversial refereeing decision (or two) to go their way because FIFA.

So I'm expecting them to get out of the group before getting decimated by Spain...hopefully in a match that their fans are just happy to have made it to, so there’s no thuggery when the score line gets ugly.

 

[robertmac43]

Croatia has been the sleeper pick since i was a kid lol

Yeah i find i say it every major tournament. Sooo maybe this is the year....?

 

[KingPuckChoo]

Yeah i find i say it every major tournament. Sooo maybe this is the year....?

i think Belgium is ready to make that leap

 

[Panteras]

Yeah i find i say it every major tournament. Sooo maybe this is the year....?

they already had their year. 98 ' 3rd place.

 

[Evilo]

I don't see France crashing in the group stage because DD will have them defend well enough to get out of it.
The lack of creativity will hinder the team when faced with good teams.
I don't expect more than QF or SF.

 

[Suiteness]

How on earth could France NOT make it out that group? I get that Peru is hard to beat but other than that?

 

[Evilo]

I thought the same thing in 2002. And 2010.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I thought the same thing in 2002. And 2010.

Wasn’t there a huge locker room fight or division in 2010? I remember them going out in the groups in 2010 and being utterly shocked.

 

[Evilo]

Yes, Domenech was hated by most of the team, there was no captain on the ship. Even then I thought they should have been through.

Worse was 2002 though. Best team in the world, possibly one of the best ever, coming off one of the most exciting EC win, strikers who were crowned best scorer in 3 of the top 5 league, with Zidane and Djorkaeff behind them. They were heavy favourites to make it 3 in a row.
Instead, they didn't score a single goal. I think Trezeguet shot the post 3 times and we hit something like 5 in the first 2 games. Henry took a red very early in the must win second game. It was just bizarre. Lack of luck, lack of will, lack of motivation, lack of everything except talent.

 

[ecemleafs]

wasnt zidane struggling to overcome an injury for the 2002 french team?

 

[Evilo]

Yes, but even then. He was awful in 98. We had basically the same defense and midfield (arguably better) and much better attack.

 

[Moncherry]

Will there not be group threads?

 

[Live in the Now]

Will there not be group threads?

There will be game threads. I am going to make most of them on Thursday.

 

[Ol' Jase]

i think Belgium is ready to make that leap

From your mouth to the football gods’ ears...