Prospect Info: 2018 Draft Thread (STL #1 via WPG is 29th OA)

[hawkeerox]

In the last 10 drafts, there have been 12 forwards drafted out of the OJHL. Here's the list:

2017: Bryce Misley, 4th Rnd (116 OA), Center, 6'1'', 185 lbs, 26/36/62 in 46 games (1.35 PPG)
2017: Nick Campoli, 6th Rnd (158 OA), Center, 6'0'', 200 lbs, 9/23/32 in 20 games (1.6 PPG)
2014: Jack Evans, 7th Rnd (207 OA), Center, 6'0'', 188 lbs, 16/47/63 in 49 games (1.29 PPG)
2013: Matt Buckles, 4th Rnd (98 OA), Center, 6'2'', 218 lbs, 40/31/71 in 50 games (1.42 PPG)
2013: Troy Josephs, 7th Rnd (209 OA), Center, 6'0'', 184 lbs, 17/20/37 in 42 games (0.88 PPG)
2012: Devin Shore, 2nd Rnd (61 OA), Center, 6'0'', 205 lbs, 29/29/58 in 41 games (1.41 PPG)
2011: Scott Wilson, 7th Rnd (209 OA), LW, 5'11'', 183 lbs, 20/41/61 in 42 games (1.49 PPG)
2010: Alexander Guptill, 3rd Rnd (77 OA), Center, 6'3'', 200 lbs, 13/13/26 in 19 games (1.37 PPG)
2010: Zach Hyman, 5th Rnd (123 OA), Center, 6'1'', 213 lbs, 35/40/75 in 49 games (1.53 PPG)
2009: Brandon Pirri, 2nd Rnd (59 OA), Center, 6'0'', 186 lbs, 25/20/45 in 26 games (1.73 PPG)
2009: Reilly Smith, 3rd Rnd (69 OA), RW, 6'0'', 185 lbs, 27/48/75 in 49 games (1.53 PPG)
2009: Dustin Walsh, 6th Rnd (169 OA), Center, 6'2'', 175 lbs, 10/11/21 in 12 games (1.75 PPG)

Jack McBain has 21/37/58 in 48 games (1.21 PPG)

That's a pretty thin group, and McBain's accomplishments in the league do not compare favorably to it as a whole, much less the success stories.

Cohorts certainly aren't everything, but it you're going to spend a 1st on a guy with questionable production for his level, you better really like what you see and he just doesn't look like a 1st round pick to me. He doesn't have the pucks skills OR movement skills that I would hope to see in that range, honestly. Asking for both might be greedy given his size (as guys checking all three boxes are probably being drafted earlier in the 1st), but not having either on top of questionable production? Those are three big boxes to leave unchecked.

He seems like the sort of guy that will entice someone to fall in love with what he could become, but I hope the Blues look elsewhere with their 1st (assuming they use it at all).

I think he'll go in the second round.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

Ultimately our scouts will make the call, but I truly believe that concerns about McBain are just fan anxiety...

We've gotten into a back-and-forth about McBain in the past, so I see no reason to rehash it again.

However I just want to highlight this idea of "fan anxiety" because I think it's a strange argument to use. Fan anxiety is going to persist with any prospect because that's just the nature of scouting. I really like Jake Wise and would gladly use a 1st rounder on him. But people, like yourself, would be reluctant for reasons like size, injury history, ability to play center at an NHL level, etc. That's fan anxiety at as much as people disliking McBain for his skating, questionable production, etc. Neither side is correct nor incorrect because each side sees things in both prospects that they don't like.

I mean, you're right that people like myself don't wish to draft McBain due to some sort of anxiety. But it's not out of some conspiracy against him or players like him. I personally view any scouting report that begins commemorating a prospect by discussing his size as about as deep and enlightening as getting a paper cut in a cave. I have always viewed size as something that should be used as simply a description and not some major boon for the player in question. I know many here would find that viewpoint as absolutely blasphemous, but that's always been my philosophy when it comes to prospect evaluation. That's part of why I find "anxiety" with many prospects, like Curtis Douglas or Logan Stanley for example. However, I know many would find "anxiety" in prospects like Ruslan Iskhakov because they see will see that 5'7" on his HockeyDB page and will wish to avoid him like he has leprosy.

In short, I don't understand why people not wanting McBain for reasons like skating or other confounding variables should be disregarded in such a way. If you like McBain, more power to you. But the confounding opinions of others should be viewed as legitimate concerns if those concerns will directly affect his progression as a hockey player. His future is not written in stone, so he could become a the next legend of hockey or just remain where he is now. It's not as if people wish to avoid him because his favorite color happens to be chartreuse.

 

[hawkeerox]

Who has McBain pegged as a 1st rounder? Not the CSS, or ISS, or McKeens, or SportingNews, or Sportsnet (multiple people), or Dobber (multiple people), or Future Considerations, or The Draft Analyst, etc. No consensus rankings that I've seen list him in the top 31.

Button did in March, and McKenzie did back in January. Who knows where they currently have him. Not sure where anyone in The Athletic has him since I don't subscribe.

Christ Peters (ESPN) and Ryan Kennedy (The Hockey News) both have him at #31, exactly.

He certainly doesn't seem like a consensus first round talent to me, and it seems "disingenuous" to suggest that he is.


Do you not understand the concept of cohorts? I know for a fact from talking to scouts that this sort of analysis is done at the NHL level, so it's not just me being "disingenuous." It's not the be-all-end-all of anything, but it's definitely done as a part of the general analysis process. It's important to know the general profiles of players that succeed, and they most definitely compare players against that profile. Some teams adhere more rigidly to those profiles than others, but almost everyone uses them to help add context to their analysis.

Anyway, puck skills is about a lot more than just "moving the puck." Even most 4th liners and bottom pairing defensemen can "move the puck" just fine at the NHL level. There's certainly a difference between that ability, and the abilities that of superior players.

Not sure why using "movement skills" is disingenuous, either. It is quite literally the thing in question, and it's not like that phrase or skating have some horrible or wonderful connotations that I'm trying to invoke. Your nitpick just seems designed to be dismissive.

You seem unconcerned about those things, but I disagree. Since it seems like yours is generally the minority opinion, maybe you would like to offer more specific reasons as to why you think others are off base?


I'm happy to create a little side wager about McBain becoming a top 6 center for fun. VCash, signature, avatar, whatever. Or you can just bookmark this for potential bragging rights down the road if you want. McBain certainly could reach those heights, but I think the odds are much more stacked against him than you seem to believe.

Ok, here's my take on the OJHL player cohort.

I think you make a very reasonable argument here- the general picture of the OJHL player turning NHL is not inspiring confidence. McBain's numbers are no better than those who, quite frankly, did not cut it to play pro with any sort of impact. I see McBain, however, as the "exception that proves the rule". His case is so rare that he actually affirms your notion that OJHL guys just do not make it into the pros.

Now why consider McBain an exception if his numbers themselves are not an exception? Well, he was the highest touted prospect to ever go into the OJHL rather than OHL. Almost all players who go into the OJHL do so because they cannot perform well at the OHL, or at least were believed to be subpar by OHL scouts to the point that sitting on the bench for an OHL became unpalatable. So players choose OJHL in hopes of more ice, meaning more development, etc. McBain could have gone in the top 5 to an OHL team, but for some reason(s) chose the OJHL.

Then why did he not produce numbers equivalent to his 1.65 ppg average that he had in his year at Don Mills? Could be any number of reasons, from players around him, to nagging injuries, to illness, to his playing style and yes to his ceiling perhaps already being reached. But I think, after seeing him at the international tournaments, that he could easily have performed very well with such teams as Barrie and Guelph, with players that Against the best in the world at tournaments he quite frankly looked good, in my opinion.
So, some things do not completely work in an athlete's favor, and that may be the case with OJHL.

For example, you bring up Bryce Misely, who conveniently played for Don Mills AAA the year before McBain. Misely had a .81 ppg average and was assistant captain. McBain had a 1.63 ppg average the next year for the Don Mills AAA team. Misely was drafted #106 in the OHL, McBain went #20. McBain simply has a lot more of the qualities that scouts look for... however, Misely actually had a pretty strong season in the OJHL (as your stats bear out), so either the OJHL was not a good fit for |McBain or he is tapped out. i think the former is a more likely reason.

Personally he is more likely a top-6 play-making power winger than a center - sort of a Dylan Strome perhaps - and that is something I would wager on!

 

[EastonBlues22]

I think he'll go in the second round.

I think a number of teams would happily take him there, but I'm afraid to prognosticate specifics because the stars are aligning for him based on the relative scarcity of quality options at center. I could definitely see someone taking him higher if they are particularly enamored or desperate.

 

[BlueDream]

I’ve been avoiding this thread but decided to check it out today and it’s been fun to read arguments about what the Blues will do with a draft pick that they aren’t even going to keep.

 

[Ranksu]

I’ve been avoiding this thread but decided to check it out today and it’s been fun to read arguments about what the Blues will do with a draft pick that they aren’t even going to keep.

Its just normal crazy off-season talk.

 

[Brockon]

Denisenko is a fine prospect, wouldn't be mad to end up with him either. He's not the biggest, but his playmaking and hands are definitely top notch. Solid skater as well. He's got some Panarin in him with his vision and ability to make cross ice plays, though I would say his shot is a couple tiers below Panarin's.

You mean the 26 year old Calder trophy winner from a few years ago? Any kid that is reminiscent of Panarin at age 18 can be coached to improve their shot, but that elusiveness on their edges, playmaking, ability to read the plays and hockey IQ aren't nearly as easily improved.

If Denisenko is anywhere near Panarin level of talent, and available with the 29th pick - he's a steal.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Ok, here's my take on the OJHL player cohort.

I think you make a very reasonable argument here- the general picture of the OJHL player turning NHL is not inspiring confidence. McBain's numbers are no better than those who, quite frankly, did not cut it to play pro with any sort of impact. I see McBain, however, as the "exception that proves the rule". His case is so rare that he actually affirms your notion that OJHL guys just do not make it into the pros.

Now why consider McBain an exception if his numbers themselves are not an exception? Well, he was the highest touted prospect to ever go into the OJHL rather than OHL. Almost all players who go into the OJHL do so because they cannot perform well at the OHL, or at least were believed to be subpar by OHL scouts to the point that sitting on the bench for an OHL became unpalatable. So players choose OJHL in hopes of more ice, meaning more development, etc. McBain could have gone in the top 5 to an OHL team, but for some reason(s) chose the OJHL.

Then why did he not produce numbers equivalent to his 1.65 ppg average that he had in his year at Don Mills? Could be any number of reasons, from players around him, to nagging injuries, to illness, to his playing style and yes to his ceiling perhaps already being reached. But I think, after seeing him at the international tournaments, that he could easily have performed very well with such teams as Barrie and Guelph, with players that Against the best in the world at tournaments he quite frankly looked good, in my opinion.
So, some things do not completely work in an athlete's favor, and that may be the case with OJHL.

For example, you bring up Bryce Misely, who conveniently played for Don Mills AAA the year before McBain. Misely had a .81 ppg average and was assistant captain. McBain had a 1.63 ppg average the next year for the Don Mills AAA team. Misely was drafted #106 in the OHL, McBain went #20. McBain simply has a lot more of the qualities that scouts look for... however, Misely actually had a pretty strong season in the OJHL (as your stats bear out), so either the OJHL was not a good fit for |McBain or he is tapped out. i think the former is a more likely reason.

Personally he is more likely a top-6 play-making power winger than a center - sort of a Dylan Strome perhaps - and that is something I would wager on!

I think that a lot of those caveats are why he's even being considered a 2nd rounder by many, and even a mid-second round draft slot would make him the highest drafted guy on that list.

In my limited viewings, McBain has looked OK. He does good work around the net, and he's pretty good on the boards. He's an awkward skater that isn't really much for short area quickness or agility, but his top speed is fine. He skates well enough that he can get around people by chipping and chasing (often while engaging well with his body), but that's about the extent that his skating is a weapon while he has the puck. He does has some natural aptitude for using his size. His shot is good enough, as is his passing, and his size itself is obviously a plus.

The negatives are that he doesn't really drive play the way I would expect a top 6 quality player to drive the play. He's more of a complementary player in terms of what he's actually accomplishing out on the ice and in what he's doing with the puck. His hands look soft enough, but I wouldn't say his puck skills are anything special. He's not stick-handling through defenders...he's chipping by people, or shielding them off as he goes around fairly wide. Those things are fine, but again, not what you would expect from a top 6 quality player. The creativity generally isn't there, either. He can see and make a basic pass just fine, but there's nothing special about his puck distribution. He basically plays the sort of game you would expect a high-level 3rd liner to play in the NHL.

There's pros and cons to that. It's easy to project him as an NHLer because he has that body and plays that style of game, which is one reason why I think he's generally ranked above his production. There's definitely value in that sort of projectability.

The downside is that forecasting significant growth beyond that level becomes a bit difficult, since (to my eyes) he's not really doing any of those things at a level that you would typically expect from a top 6 quality player. You're just kind of hoping that some part of his game takes a step forward that propels him to that level. Maybe it does, and maybe it doesn't, but his ceiling (to me) seems fairly capped unless something changes.

That's different than a guy like Kyrou, whose toolbox and style of play had top 6 written all over him, but whose big concerns were bulking up, discipline, and play away from the puck. He was much more projectable into that role, even though he was also far from a finished product, because the things holding him back were not the things capping his upside. They were the things determining his floor.

In general, I think it's easier to raise a floor (by elevating deficiencies to passable levels) than it is to raise a ceiling (by elevating passable skills to superior ones), but that's just me.

 

[hawkeerox]

We've gotten into a back-and-forth about McBain in the past, so I see no reason to rehash it again.

However I just want to highlight this idea of "fan anxiety" because I think it's a strange argument to use. Fan anxiety is going to persist with any prospect because that's just the nature of scouting. I really like Jake Wise and would gladly use a 1st rounder on him. But people, like yourself, would be reluctant for reasons like size, injury history, ability to play center at an NHL level, etc. That's fan anxiety at as much as people disliking McBain for his skating, questionable production, etc. Neither side is correct nor incorrect because each side sees things in both prospects that they don't like.

I mean, you're right that people like myself don't wish to draft McBain due to some sort of anxiety. But it's not out of some conspiracy against him or players like him. I personally view any scouting report that begins commemorating a prospect by discussing his size as about as deep and enlightening as getting a paper cut in a cave. I have always viewed size as something that should be used as simply a description and not some major boon for the player in question. I know many here would find that viewpoint as absolutely blasphemous, but that's always been my philosophy when it comes to prospect evaluation. That's part of why I find "anxiety" with many prospects, like Curtis Douglas or Logan Stanley for example. However, I know many would find "anxiety" in prospects like Ruslan Iskhakov because they see will see that 5'7" on his HockeyDB page and will wish to avoid him like he has leprosy.

In short, I don't understand why people not wanting McBain for reasons like skating or other confounding variables should be disregarded in such a way. If you like McBain, more power to you. But the confounding opinions of others should be viewed as legitimate concerns if those concerns will directly affect his progression as a hockey player. His future is not written in stone, so he could become a the next legend of hockey or just remain where he is now. It's not as if people wish to avoid him because his favorite color happens to be chartreuse.

I concur - "fan anxiety" can be a charge thrown against all fans everywhere who have concerns about someone's choice prospects.

Actually, "fan anxiety" in this context should be a term applied to those who have anxiety about certain variables concerning players of whom they are fans: eg, I am a fan of McBain, but I am anxious about his skating, ipso facto therefore I am actually suffering from "fan anxiety", hehheh, meaning "Am I going to get screwed in my wagers or my pride because this kid may not improve on the blades enough???"

Your post, btw, is hilarious. "Paper cut in a cave"!

 

[hawkeerox]

I think a number of teams would happily take him there, but I'm afraid to prognosticate specifics because the stars are aligning for him based on the relative scarcity of quality options at center. I could definitely see someone taking him higher if they are particularly enamored or desperate.

Yes, it has been pointed out many times just how weak this draft is concerning centers, though it is considered deep overall. I cannot imagine any teams right now that are desperate for centers so that they would take him first round, though.. they'd have to be enamored as well!

 

[hawkeerox]

I think that a lot of those caveats are why he's even being considered a 2nd rounder by many, and even a mid-second round draft slot would make him the highest drafted guy on that list.

The negatives are that he doesn't really drive play the way I would expect a top 6 quality player to drive the play. He's more of a complementary player in terms of what he's actually accomplishing out on the ice and in what he's doing with the puck. His hands look soft enough, but I wouldn't say his puck skills are anything special. He's not stick-handling through defenders...he's chipping by people, or shielding them off as he goes around fairly wide. Those things are fine, but again, not what you would expect from a top 6 quality player. The creativity generally isn't there, either. He can see and make a basic pass just fine, but there's nothing special about his puck distribution. He basically plays the sort of game you would expect a high-level 3rd liner to play in the NHL.

In general, I think it's easier to raise a floor (by elevating deficiencies to passable levels) than it is to raise a ceiling (by elevating passable skills to superior ones), but that's just me.

If he did drive the play, his numbers in the OJHL would be better. So, yah, I would have to agree with that point.
He is, at this point in his career, a terrific complementary player - which is why Veleno enjoyed working with him at the tournaments (at least from what Veleno said in interviews).
I think McBain complements the higher skilled players better than most guys on the ice. Some guys do not do well when playing with creative, high-skilled players, almost as though the cognitive demands are too great!
But he also complements higher skilled players better than he does lower skilled ones. That may be why OJHL numbers in his second year did not climb to the same extent one would have hoped. Funny enough, he was a winger with Veleno at the tournaments, so maybe the hockey gurus are sensing him to be more effective at winger....
As far as easier to raise a floor, |I would also agree (sort of a law of diminishing returns applied to hockey skills). However, to me McBain's skating is a floor issue, not a ceiling. I think he'll raise that easily enough to passable in his first year at BC.

Be interesting to see where he ends up - actually the same applies to a lot of these guys in this year's draft - Merkley for example. Gets me dizzy just thinking of his roller coaster ride in people's mock drafts.

 

[alwaysBlue]

I'd be over the moon if Kravtsov fell to us at 29. I doubt this'll happen but he looks like a guy that'll be a complete steal. He's a guy that drives the play extremely well from the wing. Kravtsov seems to always be in dangerous areas of the ice. He's not quite built as well as Kostin, but he doesn't look out of place physically in a men's league. Look out for Vitaly Kravtsov next year at the 2019 WJC in Vancouver.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

I'd be over the moon if Kravtsov fell to us at 29. I doubt this'll happen but he looks like a guy that'll be a complete steal. He's a guy that drives the play extremely well from the wing. Kravtsov seems to always be in dangerous areas of the ice. He's not quite built as well as Kostin, but he doesn't look out of place physically in a men's league. Look out for Vitaly Kravtsov next year at the 2019 WJC in Vancouver.

There’s like 4-5 huge Russian forwards this year, and a little part of me wants us to take all of them lol. Just roll a forward lineup where everybody is Russian and over 6’3”. It would be hilarious

 

[Stealth JD]

I'll trust Bill to do his thing and find the PBA at 29...he's usually pretty good with such a task.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

We've gotten into a back-and-forth about McBain in the past, so I see no reason to rehash it again.

However I just want to highlight this idea of "fan anxiety" because I think it's a strange argument to use. Fan anxiety is going to persist with any prospect because that's just the nature of scouting. I really like Jake Wise and would gladly use a 1st rounder on him. But people, like yourself, would be reluctant for reasons like size, injury history, ability to play center at an NHL level, etc. That's fan anxiety at as much as people disliking McBain for his skating, questionable production, etc. Neither side is correct nor incorrect because each side sees things in both prospects that they don't like.

I mean, you're right that people like myself don't wish to draft McBain due to some sort of anxiety. But it's not out of some conspiracy against him or players like him. I personally view any scouting report that begins commemorating a prospect by discussing his size as about as deep and enlightening as getting a paper cut in a cave. I have always viewed size as something that should be used as simply a description and not some major boon for the player in question. I know many here would find that viewpoint as absolutely blasphemous, but that's always been my philosophy when it comes to prospect evaluation. That's part of why I find "anxiety" with many prospects, like Curtis Douglas or Logan Stanley for example. However, I know many would find "anxiety" in prospects like Ruslan Iskhakov because they see will see that 5'7" on his HockeyDB page and will wish to avoid him like he has leprosy.

In short, I don't understand why people not wanting McBain for reasons like skating or other confounding variables should be disregarded in such a way. If you like McBain, more power to you. But the confounding opinions of others should be viewed as legitimate concerns if those concerns will directly affect his progression as a hockey player. His future is not written in stone, so he could become a the next legend of hockey or just remain where he is now. It's not as if people wish to avoid him because his favorite color happens to be chartreuse.

Since this seems to have taken off a bit, to clarify:

What I mean by “fan anxiety” is somebody gets mad that he didn’t go to their CHL squad, or has an elitist/biased attitude towards Canadian players - especially high quality ones - choosing to play hockey in America over hockey in Canada. They get salty, post derogatory things, and then spend most of their time looking for things they don’t like about their game. For every positive or at least reasonable post, there’s 10 more talking about how his development would have been better served playing for Barrie or whatever, and that’s the reason he sucks now. And so public opinion about that player plummets, even in the face of positive reports from professional scouts. And it completely disregards the particulars of each player’s situation - like leaving the country at 17 to play in a completely different league (e.g. Bowers), or playing in kind of a crappy team and being asked to do a lot of things other than score (e.g. McBain). That, to me, is fan anxiety.

So when I see talk about how McBain’s skating is “atrocious” or whatever the term used was, in the face of all evidence to the contrary, it just looks to me like a descendent of that process; it looks like fan anxiety to me.

For example, I can say Niklas Nordgren’s shot has mechanical flaws and will never work in the NHL, and he gets washed out along the boards on every play. Ok... prove me wrong on that. It would be very difficult to. And neither of those things are accurate, but they’re so specific as to be almost unverifiable without being an actual pro scout, which none of us are. So just because I dislike the player (which is also untrue, I think he’s fantastic), I can poison the well so to speak, to justify my irrational opinion of the guy. Go ahead, tell me you value the scouting reports more, or offer examples of little guys making it in the NHL, it doesn’t matter because I’ve decided I don’t like the guy and I’ve found my hook that completely renders all of it invalid. Tyler Johnson made it to the NHL even though he’s short? Doesn’t matter, Nordgren has mechanical flaws. Alex Debrincat? Doesn’t matter, mechanical flaws. Scouting reports, accessible video, and stats? Doesn’t matter, mechanical flaws. It’s meaningless, it’s just a way to shut down the conversation.

 

[jbron]

List of picks for the last 15 years at #29 of the first round. Not to compare draft years or to assess a particular franchises drafting strategy, simply just a list. For sure in each draft year there are gems that were found after the 29th pick in round one.. However, looking at the list its far from impressive. Certainly at #29 a prospect will have areas of concern . Maybe its just me, but I am more interested in the Blues picking
#45,#76, and #107

2017 Henri Jukiharju
2016 Trent Federic
2015 Gabriel Carlsson
2014 Adrian Kempe
2013 Jason Dickenson
2012 Stefan Matteau
2011 Nicklas Jensen
2010 Emerson etam
2019 Carter Ashton
2018 Daulton Leveille
2017 Nick Petricki
2016 Chris Summers
2015 Steve Downie
2014 Mike Green
2013 Partick Eaves

 

[hawkeerox]

Since this seems to have taken off a bit, to clarify:

What I mean by “fan anxiety” is somebody gets mad that he didn’t go to their CHL squad, or has an elitist/biased attitude towards Canadian players - especially high quality ones - choosing to play hockey in America over hockey in Canada. They get salty, post derogatory things, and then spend most of their time looking for things they don’t like about their game. For every positive or at least reasonable post, there’s 10 more talking about how his development would have been better served playing for Barrie or whatever, and that’s the reason he sucks now. And so public opinion about that player plummets, even in the face of positive reports from professional scouts. And it completely disregards the particulars of each player’s situation - like leaving the country at 17 to play in a completely different league (e.g. Bowers), or playing in kind of a crappy team and being asked to do a lot of things other than score (e.g. McBain). That, to me, is fan anxiety.

So when I see talk about how McBain’s skating is “atrocious” or whatever the term used was, in the face of all evidence to the contrary, it just looks to me like a descendent of that process; it looks like fan anxiety to me.

For example, I can say Niklas Nordgren’s shot has mechanical flaws and will never work in the NHL, and he gets washed out along the boards on every play. Ok... prove me wrong on that. It would be very difficult to. And neither of those things are accurate, but they’re so specific as to be almost unverifiable without being an actual pro scout, which none of us are. So just because I dislike the player (which is also untrue, I think he’s fantastic), I can poison the well so to speak, to justify my irrational opinion of the guy. Go ahead, tell me you value the scouting reports more, or offer examples of little guys making it in the NHL, it doesn’t matter because I’ve decided I don’t like the guy and I’ve found my hook that completely renders all of it invalid. Tyler Johnson made it to the NHL even though he’s short? Doesn’t matter, Nordgren has mechanical flaws. Alex Debrincat? Doesn’t matter, mechanical flaws. Scouting reports, accessible video, and stats? Doesn’t matter, mechanical flaws. It’s meaningless, it’s just a way to shut down the conversation.

In a nutshell, you're basically stating that attempts to shut down conversation by continuously asserting specific but non-verifiable statements such as "He has mechanical flaws" is an example of fan anxiety (a hockey fan who becomes irrationally dismissive of evidence that is contrary to his/her treasured opinion of a player).

As long as we don't automatically label people's opinions that differ from ours as being nothing more than fan anxiety, then I can see your point. The risk is jumping too quickly to such a conclusion during discussions.

 

[WeWentBlues]

With free agency and internal options to fill out the top 6 on the table, maybe the Blues keep this pick now.

 

[stl76]

What I mean by “fan anxiety” is somebody gets mad that he didn’t go to their CHL squad, or has an elitist/biased attitude towards Canadian players - especially high quality ones - choosing to play hockey in America over hockey in Canada. They get salty, post derogatory things, and then spend most of their time looking for things they don’t like about their game. For every positive or at least reasonable post, there’s 10 more talking about how his development would have been better served playing for Barrie or whatever, and that’s the reason he sucks now. And so public opinion about that player plummets, even in the face of positive reports from professional scouts. And it completely disregards the particulars of each player’s situation - like leaving the country at 17 to play in a completely different league (e.g. Bowers), or playing in kind of a crappy team and being asked to do a lot of things other than score (e.g. McBain). That, to me, is fan anxiety.

Exhibit A: check out the Jake Walman thread on the main prospects board after he decided to try out for team USA over team Canada for the WJC...

 

[DatDude44]

If jonatan Berggren is available....we better take him

 

[MissouriMook]

Pronman has Ty Dellandrea at #29 on his prospects ranking today over at The Athletic. We could do worse, I suppose, but I still don't think there is much of a chance that we use this pick.

 

[Majorityof1]

Pronman has Ty Dellandrea at #29 on his prospects ranking today over at The Athletic. We could do worse, I suppose, but I still don't think there is much of a chance that we use this pick.

More interesting to me were his tiers. He ranked the prospects like NHL teams do in tiers. Granted he probably had far less tiers than NHL scouts. His first round tier (which was after a few top-end tiers) went from 11th to 21. After that starts his 2nd round tier, from 22 to 42. So it seems like he only thinks 21 guys are worth a first round pick. 8 teams before us would have to go off board for us to get a 1st round talent (by his board). That makes me think we may want to trade the pick after-all, although we might get less value if other teams agree with his assessment. I have not done the research to agree/disagree with his rankings. There are guys I like that we could grab, but whether they are "1st round talent" or not, I have no clue.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Pronman has Ty Dellandrea at #29 on his prospects ranking today over at The Athletic. We could do worse, I suppose, but I still don't think there is much of a chance that we use this pick.

That list is a doozy! I love it, a lot of those guys up high are probably gonna go in the second and even third, so there’s opportunity to get some good value later

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

More interesting to me were his tiers. He ranked the prospects like NHL teams do in tiers. Granted he probably had far less tiers than NHL scouts. His first round tier (which was after a few top-end tiers) went from 11th to 21. After that starts his 2nd round tier, from 22 to 42. So it seems like he only thinks 21 guys are worth a first round pick. 8 teams before us would have to go off board for us to get a 1st round talent (by his board). That makes me think we may want to trade the pick after-all, although we might get less value if other teams agree with his assessment. I have not done the research to agree/disagree with his rankings. There are guys I like that we could grab, but whether they are "1st round talent" or not, I have no clue.

If anybody thought the same way as Corey, you’d be (mostly) right, but based on Central Scouting and other rankings, a lot of those guys are still going to be available further down the draft order. Plus it’s a ranking and not a mock draft, and there’s no accounting for who will actually take which player where. A 1st is still a 1st in this case

 

[Majorityof1]

If anybody thought the same way as Corey, you’d be (mostly) right, but based on Central Scouting and other rankings, a lot of those guys are still going to be available further down the draft order. Plus it’s a ranking and not a mock draft, and there’s no accounting for who will actually take which player where. A 1st is still a 1st in this case

Gotcha. I didn't compare to other rankings. I only gave it a quick overview. I thought some of the usual suspects looked to be missing, but didn't think a lot of it.