2018 draft prospects who will bust/disappoint

le_sean

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Oct 21, 2006
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I could see Bouchard disappointing people, possibly limited by his footspeed and end up being more like a Gudbranson.
 

Breakers

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Veleno
Too streaky for me top pick in the top 10.
He has 1 solid month of production playing on 2 really good teams.
2017/2018
September = 3 points in 4GP
October = 12 points in 13GP
November = 10 points in 10GP
December = 7 points in 7GP
January = 21 points in 11GP
February = 11 points in 10GP
March = 3 points in 2GP
2016/2017
September = 3 points in 3GP
October = 4 points in 6GP
November = 0 points in 0GP
December = 5 points in 4GP
January = 9 points in 11GP
February = 10 points in 12GP
March = 9 points in 9GP

If you look at that scoring pace over 2 seasons, you can't seriously tell me that is impressive.
I wont be able to see him play, but he was with the the runaway best team in the QMJHL last year
This year he is traded top 5 team in the Q, so he has been surrounded by Talent.
 
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drw02

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Aug 10, 2013
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One of the smaller defencemen picked in the top 10-12 will bust. You have Hughes, Boqvist, and Smith who are all near 5'10". At least one of them will not be able to adapt their game at the next level.

Hughes being a standout and damn near PPG as an 18 year old D in the NCAA alleviates many of those concerns with him imo. I'd actually be more worried about guys like Bouchard and Dobson not being able to adapt to the speed/skill of today's NHL.
 

Leopain

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Jun 15, 2017
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I think Merkley screams Pouliot/Deangelo projection, AKA tons of talent but low IQ/work ethic. I would stay away in the first round.
 

WhatWhat

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Aug 7, 2014
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Veleno
Too streaky for me.

2017/2018
September = 3 points in 4GP
October = 12 points in 13GP
November = 10 points in 10GP
December = 7 points in 7GP
January = 21 points in 11GP
February = 12 points in 10GP
March = 3 points in 2GP
2016/2017
September = 3 points in 3GP
October = 4 points in 6GP
November = 0 points in 0GP
December = 5 points in 4GP
January = 9 points in 11GP
February = 10 points in 12GP
March = 9 points in 9GP

If you look at that scoring pace over 2 seasons, you can't seriously tell me that is impressive.

I wont be able to see him play, but he was with the the runaway best team in the QMJHL last year
This year he is traded top 5 team in the Q, so he has been surrounded by Talent.


How the hell is that streaky? He seems to be roughly producing consistently at just above a PPG and had a good month... That seems like a regular type of year for just about any player (consistent ish with a month thats a little down and a month thats a little up)
 
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Castle8130

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May 9, 2017
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Boqvist raises a lot of concerns in my mind because of his size and producing highly at a lower level of play.
 

93LEAFS

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Nov 7, 2009
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Toronto
Really depends on where you project guys to go. I mean, players picked in the 20 to 30 range only become a somewhat valuable core piece (a top 9 forward, top 4 defender, or a starting goalie) like 35% of the time, but most people think its a lock to get a piece like that and think there's a better chance to get a Pastrnak or Boeser than there actually is.

Due to this, when looking at who will underachieve there draft slot, you really have to look at the top of the draft to call someone a sizable disappointment. Boqvist scares me. He probably has the widest disparity between floor and ceiling of any high pick. Factor in he's a defender who hasn't played significantly at levels above J-20 it adds a whole bunch of risk. Very similar to Cale Makar, although, I would say Makar had even more risk attached (late birthday while Boqvist is among the youngest in the draft) and very limited IIHF experience, whereas Boqvist has been at big events and played big minutes there.

I think the wingers are the safest position to draft. Yeah, you get Yakupov's occasionally, but I find they are the easiest to project, and have the easiest transition at the NHL level. While one or two may disappoint, I have a hard time not seeing Wahlstrom, Svechnikov, Zadina or Tkachuk being top 9 NHLers with obviously a much higher ceiling.
 

Breakers

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How the hell is that streaky? He seems to be roughly producing consistently at just above a PPG and had a good month... That seems like a regular type of year for just about any player (consistent ish with a month thats a little down and a month thats a little up)

Ok maybe not streaky is the right word but having ONE MONTH of solid production in 2 years is garbage.

And no thats not a regular type of year when you produce at the same rate for 4 months as the previous year. Teams want to see you progress, not stay stagnant, especially with the hype he had.
 
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East Coast Icestyle

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Mar 6, 2015
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Nova Scotia, Canada
Ok maybe not streaky is the right word but having ONE MONTH of solid production in 2 years is garbage.

And no thats not a regular type of year when you produce at the same rate for 4 months as the previous year. Teams want to see you progress, not stay stagnant, especially with the hype he had.

I'm just saying but being ppg every single month isn't garbage.

He's improved defensively from what I've seen and his poise has gotten much better. Scoring isn't the be all, end all for prospect evaluation or there'd be a lot of different picks in every draft.

Do I think he's a top ten? No. Is he garbage? Not as much as your assumption based solely on scoring.

Anyways, Merkley seems pretty stand out on offense, but when I watch I question his defense, and he's also only around 170 lbs. Most short defensemen still need aroundnanother 20 lbs from that and if he can't pick up the weight and strength, transition will be hard. Someone like Sam Girard is rare and surprises the hell out of me.
 

donut

Moderator
Sep 5, 2012
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Hard to imagine with so many defenders slotted to go in the top-15 that all of them will pan-out. Probably the most probably ones to be Boqvist or Merkley not panning out.
 
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