2018 Caps NHL Draft Thread

Discussion in 'Washington Capitals' started by Langway, Jan 23, 2018.

  1. Langway

    Langway ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    Kaut is a right shot at least.
    I think he's too raw to be solidly in the mix but I don't doubt some team steps up in the first and takes him. He's another guy that could earn some late fans at the U18s. He's someone you could maybe fast-track in the bottom six while you wait for a lot of things to develop on the fly but it's probably going to take a while. I have him just outside of the first round because of that. It's a better option if they keep Trotz around since I'm sure he'd value a lot of his game but in this draft I'd tend to shoot for more skill (likely a defenseman given where they're likely to be picking between the likes of MSamuelsson, Miller, Sandin, McIsaac, Lundkvist & Merkley). There's a decent argument that they're already deep enough on the blueline as it is so maybe they bypass that group but among forwards I'd probably take Groulx, Dellandrea or Thomas over Noel as smarter fast-track types that could play in a bottom six role (and throw McBain & Bokk in there as longer-term wildcards).
     
  2. Langway

    Langway ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    NHLN to air each US game at the U18s.

    The US squad ought to feature at least five 2018 first rounders (Wahlstrom, Wilde, Farabee, MSamuelsson & Miller) and also has a number of strong '01-born players like Jack Hughes, Cam York, Cole Caulfield & Alex Turcotte. Hughes seems like the odds-on favorite to go first overall in 2019.
     
  3. CapitalsCupFantasy

    CapitalsCupFantasy It’s Go Time!!

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  4. Langway

    Langway ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    Central Scouting final rankings out. Merkley falls to 45th among NA skaters.

    The U18s start Thursday with USA taking on Canada. That one should include a bunch of potential late first round, mid-second options: Mattias Samuelsson, K'Andre Miller, Jake Wise, Ryan Merkley, Jonathan Tychonick, Ty Dellandrea, Liam Foudy, Cam Hillis, Allan McShane, Serron Noel & Jack McBain.
     
  5. Sam Spade

    Sam Spade Registered User

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    I've been saying this for the last couple of years, and people can disagree with my assessment, but the Caps are going to be fine now, in the immediate future, and beyond, and by fine I mean stay competitive.

    They have good to very good D prospects, a great goalie prospect, speedy young wingers here now (Vrana and Stephenson) and coming (Gersich/Axel, Barber to name a few), decent center depth for the next few years in Backstrom Kuzy and Eller, and while the centers in the system might not be as strong as the defense, Pinho, Stephenson can fill out the bottom lines.

    I think the Caps will be picking around 24-27 in the first round and it needs to be a center, listening to a draft podcast and if they could snatch up a guy like Ryan McCleod, they would be smart.
     
  6. Bieronymus Trotz

    Bieronymus Trotz Registered User

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    Do they? Djoos and Johansen seem like sure NHLers, and beyond that it's Bowey and what seems like a big quantity of mediocre guys who are more likely not to make it at all than to be full-timers.
     
  7. Sam Spade

    Sam Spade Registered User

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    What? If only three of them work out the Caps are set.

    Johanson, Hobbs, Seigenthaler, Geisser, Bowey, Djoos, combined with Orlov, Niskanen, who knows about Carlson and maybe they keep Kempny. That is pretty damn ok by me.
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2018 at 7:23 PM
  8. Bieronymus Trotz

    Bieronymus Trotz Registered User

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    It depends on what "work out" means. Plenty of NHL-quality guys aren't good enough that you want them in a full-time role on a contender. Djoos is the only one on that list that we know for sure can hack it at least on some level in the NHL. Seigenthaler and Geisser don't seem like they should be in the conversation at all.
     
  9. Langway

    Langway ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    I don't quite share the optimism with their blueline prospects, at least not to the point where it's a distinguishing strength. They have a lot of them but I'm not sure any of them will be #3's. Will any of them even be as good as a Brandon Montour? I kind of doubt it. While on paper that question could help Reirden as an option, I'm not sure that strength necessarily carries over when he has the head gig. That would revolve around the quality of his assistant replacement. They're going to be fine because there are always a lot of garbage teams and they won't be trash.

    It's much more about whether the blend is right and whether the vets can play a more modern up-tempo game or not in order to mesh with what younger talent they have and whether these younger players can seriously complete their game or not.They need the right coach, approach and some luck in upcoming drafts. While they've got some speed in the pipeline I'm not sure it's skilled enough. Speed is needed but so is hockey sense, tenacity and complete games and they're lacking in high upside prospects at this point outside of Samsonov. In the short-term they need 65/13 to be far more intelligent and consistent going forward and it's hard to say if better coaching alone accomplishes that. There's another level of tenacity and intelligence needed across the board that will be difficult to pick up later in the first round and later in the draft. And, of course, it's not at all a sure thing that their next coach will put them on the right path toward developing in some of these areas.

    They still ought to go BPA while shooting for the best combination of speed, IQ, upside and leadership. I'd look for the most well-rounded player available with serious upside. There's at least a pretty decent chance that could be yet another a defenseman given where they're likely to be selecting whether it's Sandin, Miller, Lundkvist, McIsaac or Samuelsson. They could go skill with Denisenko but they need to start branching out from a pure skill standpoint (and arguably somewhat low IQ in terms of maturity/consistency/completeness) and think more about the intangibles of future leadership material. Upside and tools need to be there but the toolbox is pretty damned important and they can't just gloss over it for one-dimensional finesse.
     
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  10. Sam Spade

    Sam Spade Registered User

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    Everything is irrelevant if they pick the wrong head coach though.

    I want to clean house but it will be Reirdon.
     
  11. Langway

    Langway ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    Expanded NHLN coverage of the U18s, including Canada's other games (running the TSN feed presumably).
     
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  12. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    NHLN showing the one international tournament the US typically wins? Sweet
     
  13. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    I'm with Langway on the assessment of the D prospects. They have several guys knocking on the door, but not a lot of potential to be impact players. Bowey has the toolset to do it, but he struggled to take the next step this season and has been inconsistent in showing that elite play in the AHL as well. Johansen is probably more of a complimentary or depth guy at the NHL level than a difference maker. It's far from a guarantee that Hobbs, Siegenthaler, or Geisser will even manage to crack the NHL on a permanent basis.

    Forward is even sketchier. The early returns on Gersich paint some promise, and if he can be a top 9 player it would be a significant boon. But outside of him, AJF, and Vrana, it's pretty questionable. Burakovsky's development has entirely backtracked. Pinho is intriguing, but his upside at the NHL level is pretty questionable. Stephenson had a good enough year to cement him as a likely career NHLer, but once again his upside beyond being a 3rd/4th line guy is pretty limited. Riley Barber is already 24 (older than Burakovsky), so it's probably time to write him off as a NHLer. Fjallby is the hype machine right now and could be a steal, but expectations need to remain in check given that his hot play came over basically a three week stretch. If they can salvage Burakovsky and each of Vrana, Gersich, and AJF turn into quality top 9 options, then that's a much faster group of forwards than they've had in a while. But that's depending on a lot of things going well (and in a timely fashion). It's a very real possibility that Vrana is the only one of the bunch capable of having a lasting career on a scoring line.

    Depending on who's available, I honestly wouldn't be opposed to them trading down a bit to try and get multiple high upside guys in the very late 1st or early 2nd. They've thinned the prospect pool too much in recent years, and need to restock a bit. Granted, their late 1st success over the past 15 years is hard to argue with, so perhaps it's not the wisest to give away their biggest drafting strength. But they need to resist the urge to trade up in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds like they have in recent years. Quantity should be the name of the game later on. And please avoid dumping all of their picks in the NCAA track. They've over committed to it in the past half dozen drafts or so.
     
  14. CapitalsCupFantasy

    CapitalsCupFantasy It’s Go Time!!

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    Gersich looks like a certain near future middle-6 guy to me.
     
  15. MW6

    MW6 Registered User

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    A guy Caps should seriously be considering with their 2nd round pick is Filip Johansson from Leksand in the Swedish 2nd tier league, hockeyallsvenskan.
    I’ve seen him play 20-something games this year and he’s mature beyond his age. A really poised, smart RHD that has been holding his own against men this year. His decision making is excellent in the D-zone, smooth skater, is really good at getting pucks to the net in the O-zone.
     
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  16. Langway

    Langway ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    I don't think we have enough of a read yet on Gersich's open ice skill. He showed well in the trenches with his tenacity but it's really hard to say how productive he'll be all-around. Is he a more gritty Stephenson or will he be skilled enough to help make a scoring line effective beyond effort/forechecking? TBD. AJF is trending well but his stickhandling needs work for open ice play and he has a few other offensive things to refine to be more effective/dynamic. Whether a future replacement coach looks to balance lines and whether they actively look to develop cohesion and sense between linemates to a greater extent will be big keys in not just getting those two further along but also Wilson, Burakovsky, Vrana & Stephenson. Those two have the effort level to perhaps survive regardless but the group overall likely needs that sort of more active approach.

    I like Johansson with the Florida pick, although since it's a mid-second rounder I don't doubt they use that to move up in the first if they perceive a tier dropoff. The one scenario where moving up makes sense is if they're after a top six forward and have to have someone from the secondary group of Veleno, Kravtsov, Hayton, Lundestrom, Olofsson, Kupari, Kotkaniemi, Farabee & Kaut. Most should go between 11-20 and perhaps all may be gone by the mid-20's. If they're less impressed by the likes of McLeod, Denisenko or that secondary group of blueliners then it may be worth it. As-is BPA around the mid-20's seems more likely to be a defender just due to the numbers but there's still time for that to change. Johansson will play for Team Sweden but some key candidates for their first pick will be Canadians Merkley, McIsaac, Dellandrea, Noel & Thomas and Americans MSamuelsson & Miller.
     
  17. amjay13

    amjay13 Registered User Sponsor

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    Jack Drury would be a good round 2 target. Two way center and a future captain. Looks a lot like Joe Pavelski.
     
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  18. usiel

    usiel My Ass Is On Fire Sponsor

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    Thanks, Langway, on the heads up for who to look for names-wise.

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. Sam Spade

    Sam Spade Registered User

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    My point about the D and the upcoming forwards wasn't that the Caps are winning the Cup with any of these kids leading the way, I only said they will remain competitive, and they will.

    The Caps won the Metro with a team that isn't even really that good beyond the center position (thanks Ovechkin ;)). You don't need a true game changing number one right now, you simply need competent guys who can get the puck out of the zone and do "ok" IN the D zone.

    Considering they still have a damn decent core of Backstrom, Kuzy, Ovechkin, Orlov, Eller, Niskanen, Holtby, etc. the Caps will probably be like the Wings I think, keep making the playoffs, keep losing in round or two, keep picking high 20's, rinse, cycle, repeat.

    If the Caps want to set this franchise up for the next 15 years though they tank in one of the next two seasons for Hughes or LaFreniere. ;)
     
    Last edited: Apr 19, 2018 at 8:03 AM
  20. Langway

    Langway ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    Hat trick for Berggren against the Swiss. Another Swede to keep in mind for their second pick.

    The problem comes if and when the game passes by 8, 19 and 77 if the younger players can't shoulder the load. Or, hell, just if they lose Carlson next summer and can't adequately use that cap space in a highly selective and effective manner. I still believe Carlson re-signs but only having two or maybe three top four D in Carlson's absence would make it a tough task for any incoming coach. Provided he returns, they ought to be a bubble team at worst until that trio and Niskanen fall off...unless the next coaching hire is an Adam Oates type hire. Get that hire right with enough vision and it could be the sort of lasting fit they need in order to build properly in the short-term, develop more deliberately and then transition more fluidly as performance warrants. I'm not sure ownership or MacLellan are capable of finding that level of fit for the position, though, or whether they'll even approach it in that fashion. Who knows.
     
  21. AlexBrovechkin8

    AlexBrovechkin8 Better luck next year

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    Latest mock from SportingNews.
    Noel is the 10th-ranked NA skater in Central Scouting's final rankings. 6'5'' 205# at 17 years old (turns 18 in August).
     
  22. Langway

    Langway ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    US loses to Canada 6-4. Not a great day for any of the secondary defenders I mentioned. Tychonick & Bahl arguably showed better than any of Samuelsson, Miller, McIsaac or Merkley. Foudy had a good game...not surprised by that. He should be a prime target with Florida's second if he's still around. Typical fast, well-rounded London Knight.

    Noel reminds me somewhat of Simmonds. That has value and would help them revert back to The Heavy but I'd avoid the temptation of rushing him ala Wilson and let him dominate in junior to build up his skill level. I'm not sure he'll be as crafty around the net as Simmonds but he's got a decent head for the game. I'd be very surprised if Farabee goes that early and Bouchard that late. I'd probably go with Kaut if the draft unfolds that way. He'd be the easier skill player to fast-track IMO and that probably needs to be part of the consideration. Either him, Olofsson, Denisenko or maybe Bokk. Those four fit their typical Euro skill target.
     
  23. usiel

    usiel My Ass Is On Fire Sponsor

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    I actually watched about 75% of that game and was surprised at how it was entertaining and was just impressed at the skill over all for both teams. Merkley as a RHD looks intriguing. Kinda hoping a skill forward BPA falls where the caps pick if there is a good offensive D there...

    Really liked Wahlstrom's game.
     
  24. CapsRuinedMySleep

    CapsRuinedMySleep Back for more!

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    When is the lotto thing?
     
  25. usiel

    usiel My Ass Is On Fire Sponsor

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