Blues Discussion Thread 2018-2019

[Itsnotatrap]

I really hope we don’t bridge Edmundson. The left side is a short term concern, but that’s mostly because we have a lot of injured money on the back end of their deals. Long term it seems like it’s going to work itself out fine, but if you go short term with Edmundson it seems like you just made it both a short and long term question mark.

 

[tfriede2]

I really hope we don’t bridge Edmundson. The left side is a short term concern, but that’s mostly because we have a lot of injured money on the back end of their deals. Long term it seems like it’s going to work itself out fine, but if you go short term with Edmundson it seems like you just made it both a short and long term question mark.

I don't really think bridging Edmundson makes the left side a long-term question mark. If Edmundson is still an RFA after a bridge deal (it wouldn't make sense if he isn't still an RFA), then there's no long-term concern, IMO. Sure, it may cost you more $$ long-term to lock up Edmundson after the bridge deal, but a deal would get done.

 

[Itsnotatrap]

I don't really think bridging Edmundson makes the left side a long-term question mark. If Edmundson is still an RFA after a bridge deal (it wouldn't make sense if he isn't still an RFA), then there's no long-term concern, IMO. Sure, it may cost you more $$ long-term to lock up Edmundson after the bridge deal, but a deal would get done.

Overly dramatic on my part, but I used to think his upside was a fringe top 4, and he’s already proven me wrong. I want to take advantage of this window and get term at a decent AAV before he starts drawing wider recognition.

 

[simon IC]

I say we give Brodziak whatever he wants. PK and defense are still very, very important, although not as popular lately. My question to those who are reluctant to re-sign Brodziak is, who are we going to replace him with, especially on the PK units? I think the contributions that Brodz brings to the Blues are a little under-valued. I would not be comfortable with his PK role being handed to unproven youth. As previously stated, Steen and Berglund aren't as effective as they used to be on the PK, Bouwmeester is a big question mark, and Upshall probably won't be here.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Brodziak was one of our best players last year. Have to bring him back.

 

[Chojin]

Argh, I got the dates wrong for Edmundson becoming a UFA. My bad. It feels like he'll probably get something in the ballpark of 4 years, 5 if they want to stagger him with Parayko. Either that or a 1 year bridge.

 

[Zamadoo]

I've been projecting Ed at 4-5 years for $~4.5 since last summer, we'll see what he ends up with. Brodz is 34 next season, so if he's looking for a multi year deal then I don't think he's an option. I'd go 1/$1.7mil, or let him make more elsewhere.

 

[Chojin]

I think it's more likely he'd get a little under $4m for 4 years.

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

I think it's more likely he'd get a little under $4m for 4 years.

They gave Bouwmeester almost 6 to basically be a defensive wizard. I think Edmundson will see north of 4. Maybe his actual salary is lower in that first year, but after that, I think he'll be at least 4 plus and closer to 5 towards the end of the contract. This is me thinking it's 4 years. If it's longer, he'll get much higher money and I honestly think it'll be longer. I think Edmundson will sign a 5+ year deal.

 

[DatDude44]

Overly dramatic on my part, but I used to think his upside was a fringe top 4, and he’s already proven me wrong. I want to take advantage of this window and get term at a decent AAV before he starts drawing wider recognition.

100% agree. Like what NSH did with arvidsson, josi and ekholm

 

[EastonBlues22]

They gave Bouwmeester almost 6 to basically be a defensive wizard. I think Edmundson will see north of 4. Maybe his actual salary is lower in that first year, but after that, I think he'll be at least 4 plus and closer to 5 towards the end of the contract. This is me thinking it's 4 years. If it's longer, he'll get much higher money and I honestly think it'll be longer. I think Edmundson will sign a 5+ year deal.

That might be what happened, but I doubt that was the intent.

Bouwmeester was routinely in the 30-40 point range leading up to that contract, and was coming off a 37 point season with the Blues when they signed him. The Blues were probably hoping for a bit more offense than 10-20 points a year at that price.

 

[Brian39]

They gave Bouwmeester almost 6 to basically be a defensive wizard. I think Edmundson will see north of 4. Maybe his actual salary is lower in that first year, but after that, I think he'll be at least 4 plus and closer to 5 towards the end of the contract. This is me thinking it's 4 years. If it's longer, he'll get much higher money and I honestly think it'll be longer. I think Edmundson will sign a 5+ year deal.

I wouldn't call $5.4 mil almost 6, but he got that money for much more than being just a defensive wizard. He had 22 points in the lockout shortened season right before we extended him. That's a 38 point pace. He had 29 points the year before, 37 points the year after and was playing 25 minutes a night.

Ed hasn't cracked 20 points yet (although he was on pace for exactly 20 this year) and we're buying 2 RFA years on his extension while Bouw's was all UFA years. Inflation is certainly a real consideration (we signed Bouw right before the lockout, so it is hard to say what the cap was at that time. It was $65 mil the year before), but we're talking about a huge gap in offensive play between Ed and the Bouw who was extended for $5.4 mil.

I think that Ed could surpass $4 mil if the term is right for the team, but we're comparing apples and oranges here.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

John Tavares getting full-court press from Islanders - Sportsnet.ca

Friedman links us to Todd Nelson as a PP coach. I would *love* that hire if it happens.

Memorial Cup: Bulldogs' Robert Thomas 'a calming influence' - Sportsnet

Dave Taylor and John Gruden (the hockey one) talk about how Hamilton is a different team with Bobby Tommy on the ice. On a side note, part of me is pulling for Gruden as our AHL coach, especially if Hamilton wins the Memorial Cup.

http://bit.ly/osgp18stl

Scott Cullen predicts we acquire Ryan O’Reilly from Buffalo, sign a defenseman like Dan Hamhuis or John Moore (I would much prefer the latter), and start the season with both Kyrou and Thomas in the lineup.

 

[tfriede2]

As for Edmundson's (will be 25 starting next season, coming off a 17 point season in 69 games) next contract, let's look at some comparables who recently signed extensions either this season or after last season:

Nutivaara: 23 years old, had 23 points in 61 games --> 4 years, $2.7 mil cap hit
McNabb: 27 years old, had 24 points a few years ago, coming off a 15 point season --> 4 years, $2.5 mil, all UFA years
Gudbranson: 26 years old, career high is only 13 points --> 3 years, $4 mil, all UFA years
Matheson: 24 years old, signed coming off a 17 point season, had 27 points last year --> 8 years, $4.875 mil, 4 UFA years (I think)
Manson: 26 years old, signed coming off a 17 point season, had 37 points this past season --> 4 years, $4.1 mil, 3 UFA years
Severson: 23 years old, signed coming off a 31 point season, had 24 points this past season --> 6 years, $4.166 mil, 2 UFA years (I think)
Pesce: 23 years old, signed coming off a 20 point season, had 19 points last year in 65 games --> 6 years, $4.025 mil, 2 UFA years (I think)
Dumoulin: 26 years old, signed coming off a 15 point season in 70 games, had 18 points last year --> 6 years, $4.1 mil, 4 UFA years
Slavin: 24 years old, signed coming off a 34 point season, had 30 points this past season --> 7 years, $5.3 mil, 4 UFA years

Based on these comparables (and I realize this is only measuring offensive production and similar age), I think Matheson, Manson, Pesce, and Dumoulin represent the closest comparisons for offensive ability, and their contracts ranged from $4.875 mil for 8 years to $4.1 mil for 4 years to $4.025 mil for 6 years, to $4.1 mil for 6 years. Nutivaara is the outlier, as he signed this deal near the end of the season and he only has a $2.7 mil cap hit...but, these are all RFA years.

Thus, I think a 6-8 year deal for Edmundson should be in the range of $4 mil to $4.9 mil. I honestly didn't think Edmundson should get more than $4 mil/year on a long-term deal, but the comparables speak for themselves, and Edmundson's agent will surely be pointing to them. DA will point to Nutivaara and McNabb...we'll see.

 

[Edgar Carrow]

That's 104.6 mph btw.

 

[Brockon]

What if someone said that he was one of the worst 2-3 starters in the league this year? That would be accurate.

Nope. I have Allen in the bottom 5-8 range behind these tandems for last year (and pick your own order)
Halak and Greiss
Markstrom and Nielsen
Darling and Ward
Howard and Mrazek

Going forward DET, NYI and CAR have a UFA from their tandem to replace in a questionable goalie FA off-season. Nielsen and Markstrom may look better behind a healthy Canucks roster, but are stop gaps until Demko gets a shot in net there. Allen is better than all but Howard and Ward - who are both tending towards a 1A/1B arrangement and inconsistent in their own rights (Howard being more injury prone given the starter load, and Ward looking sloppy when given the starter load). Not even remotely in the bottom 4 and possibly ahead of PHI as well, given how bad Elliott/Neuvirth/Mrazk have looked as a whole.

So Allen gets a pass from the bottom 10% of the league from me. I also remember Allen the world beater in our run to the WCF in 2015-16 where our offence dried up and we chased much of the games against San Jose... Highly remisnicent of this season in December - March. Hmmmm... Maybe there's more to it than Allen being terrible? But, I also feel that HFB tends to reflect a short memory on certain accounts and pile blame on players very quickly.

 

[Thallis]

Nope. I have Allen in the bottom 5-8 range behind these tandems for last year (and pick your own order)
Halak and Greiss
Markstrom and Nielsen
Darling and Ward
Howard and Mrazek

Going forward DET, NYI and CAR have a UFA from their tandem to replace in a questionable goalie FA off-season. Nielsen and Markstrom may look better behind a healthy Canucks roster, but are stop gaps until Demko gets a shot in net there. Allen is better than all but Howard and Ward - who are both tending towards a 1A/1B arrangement and inconsistent in their own rights (Howard being more injury prone given the starter load, and Ward looking sloppy when given the starter load). Not even remotely in the bottom 4 and possibly ahead of PHI as well, given how bad Elliott/Neuvirth/Mrazk have looked as a whole.

So Allen gets a pass from the bottom 10% of the league from me. I also remember Allen the world beater in our run to the WCF in 2015-16 where our offence dried up and we chased much of the games against San Jose... Highly remisnicent of this season in December - March. Hmmmm... Maybe there's more to it than Allen being terrible? But, I also feel that HFB tends to reflect a short memory on certain accounts and pile blame on players very quickly.

That's interesting because Elliott was the starter in the playoffs that year. Allen played 5 games and had a .897 sv% then. Allen's had 1 great playoff series against Minnesota. He's also cost us a series against Minnesota.

 

[Brockon]

That's interesting because Elliott was the starter in the playoffs that year. Allen played 5 games and had a .897 sv% then. Allen's had 1 great playoff series against Minnesota. He's also cost us a series against Minnesota.

Ouch. Not how I'd remembered it, but you're absolutely right. Looking back for stats, it was the 2017 series against Minnesota that he basically shut everything down that I was thinking of.

Forgive me, I'm camping in Dawson City removed from civilisation and far removed from any efficient way of fact checking - I'm not able to access an LTE network on my phone currently, so finding the stats was an hour long test of patience.

I still have a gut feeling that systems and injuries - leading to an anemic power play and struggling offense through most of the second half of this season makes Jake's numbers look significantly worse than they were. I'd like to know what Brodeur did in 16-17 to revitalize Jake down the stretch and why it wasn't attempted this past season. The softies hurt, as did chasing games.

 

[BlueDream]

Random thought here but I actually think we'll see Steen have a nice "bounceback" year next season, if you can call it that. Meaning he'll top 50 points.

I mean the guy played into May with a broken foot last season and then broke his hand in training camp. He didn't really get a fair shake. Now with a full 5-6 months of rest and hopefully better luck in camp that will allow him to start the season healthy, I think he'll contribute just fine. He's 34... it's really not that old. He should be a solid 2nd-line caliber player still.

Not worried about his contract. Beginning in 2019 he'll only have 2 years left. So that contract will be more moveable then, or at the very worst he'll still be a fine 3rd liner for the remaining 2 years.

 

[Ranksu]

Random thought here but I actually think we'll see Steen have a nice "bounceback" year next season, if you can call it that. Meaning he'll top 50 points.

I mean the guy played into May with a broken foot last season and then broke his hand in training camp. He didn't really get a fair shake. Now with a full 5-6 months of rest and hopefully better luck in camp that will allow him to start the season healthy, I think he'll contribute just fine. He's 34... it's really not that old. He should be a solid 2nd-line caliber player still.

Not worried about his contract. Beginning in 2019 he'll only have 2 years left. So that contract will be more moveable then, or at the very worst he'll still be a fine 3rd liner for the remaining 2 years.

I'm not very optimistic about Steen. I have mentioned already, but say it again that last 2-3 years he has trying to hang on the cliff and I'm afraid this year is when he's falling heavily. max 35 points or less. We can't speak about him on 2nd liner anymore, just level of like Berglund / Sobotka and Steen shouldn't play powerplay anymore.

 

[Majorityof1]

I'm not very optimistic about Steen. I have mentioned already, but say it again that last 2-3 years he has trying to hang on the cliff and I'm afraid this year is when he's falling heavily. max 35 points or less. We can't speak about him on 2nd liner anymore, just level of like Berglund / Sobotka and Steen shouldn't play powerplay anymore.

Surprise, surprise, peikko Suomi thinks a Blues player will regress. Even more surprising, he speaks ill of one of the Swedish Blues players. Color me shocked.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Honestly, if we were to get Tavares, I’d put Steen with him and Tarasenko. There’s no way he wouldn’t be worth his contract point wise with them. Plus putting together a Fabbri-Thomas-Berglund third line isn’t exactly a bad thing either.

 

[DatDude44]

Having watched all of the Hamilton memorial cup games..... I can confidently say Robert Thomas is going to make an immediate impact on this team and the way he works on the PP will perfectly complement tarasenko, thomas is so smart at swinging up to the blue and attacking from the right side and feathering a seam pass through the seam, it's honestly unreal how he does it. I love the way he manipulates defenders and draws them in then slips passes through their triangle(especially no look ones) right on his teammates sticks in scoring areas, he's just not playing with high end guys who can score(saigeon hurt his shoulder and didn't play much with thomas in the mem cup) he was mostly with entwistle, caamano and strome(who was seriously underwhelming, like really bad)

If we don't get tavares, don't be surprised to see thomas as our 2C next year and honestly, i don't think it's a bad thing.

 

[Dbrownss]

I was amazed at how awkward Strome is...holy crap.

 

[kimzey59]

Jeremy Rutherford‏Verified account @jprutherford 45m45 minutes ago
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I’m hearing Mike Van Ryn is expected to join the Blues’ coaching staff. Van Ryn, who played 69 games with the Blues from 2000-03, was the head coach of the AHL’s Tucson Roadrunners last season. #stlblues

Not sure if this really deserves it's own thread since JR didn't go into what role he would be filling, but apparently our old buddy Mike Van Ryn is joining the Coaching Staff.