2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season (Active Storms: Hurricane Jose)

Hadoop

Registered User
Aug 13, 2002
5,603
627
Mississauga
Careful on the rhetoric. Irma is forecast to skate pretty close by the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba. Interacting with land can cause the hurricane to weaken quite a bit and disrupt the circulation. On top of that, it also needs to make a hard northward turn, which models have been all over the place with regards to how hard that turn actually is.

The worst-case scenario is if Irma comes out of the Carribean Islands without too much weakening and then turns very hard northward so that the northern eyewall is directly on the eastern Florida coast. But, a lot has to go right in order for that to happen.

Andrew was basically in open water (aside from the small Bahama Islands) so it could get all of the fuel it needed from the warm ocean water. Then, it just slammed head on into South Florida.

Well done.
 

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