2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season (Active Storms: Hurricane Jose)

HollaHaula

Cynical Wild fan
Jul 28, 2015
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Models have continued to shift eastward with the track of Irma. I'm beginning to get very skeptical if Irma even makes landfall in Florida. This could be another situation like Hurricane Matthew where it comes close to the eastern Florida coast but never makes landfall. However, landfall in the Carolinas is looking more like a sure thing.

Forecasts from a number of different models:
11L_tracks_latest.png



Forecasts from GEFS members:
11L_gefs_latest.png
 

GKJ

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
185,686
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My business does a lot of shipping into Florida, and we've been shut down. That's a pretty sharp right turn they're giving it.
 

Gardner McKay

RIP, Jimmy.
Jun 27, 2007
25,418
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SoutheastOfDisorder
My business does a lot of shipping into Florida, and we've been shut down. That's a pretty sharp right turn they're giving it.

We work in Florida and Houston. Our headquarters are in Atlanta. We have tons of reps on the east coast going from Savannah up to Richmond. This is going to be a big impact for our company.

I've already told my employees to take their laptops home with them on Friday just in case. I don't know how bad Metro Atlanta is going to get walloped by this storm. Some of them live about 50 miles east of the city (I'm about 30 miles Northwest) so I'm more concerned about their safety than my own.
 

chicagoskycam

Land of #1 Overall Picks
Nov 19, 2009
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Fulton Market, Chicago
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Cat 4 right now. Most def going to hit South Florida at this point according to reports.

Jose Cat 4 behind it looks like it may head East away from Florida, but some said this about Irma. Could clip the same set of islands that were devastated already.
 

LadyStanley

Registered User
Sep 22, 2004
105,742
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Sin City
Panthers evacuated staff and players, including their families and pets, to Massachusetts. Might hang out, work out at AHL affiliate facilities.

Wondering how ECHL Florida will fare. Humungous storm surge forecast for that area
 

GKJ

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
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They had an owner of a bar in Key Largo on CNN last night. He said he was actually going to go south to Key West instead of evacuating north. He didn't want the storm to chase him into the traffic, and at the time given the cone, it didn't seem like a half-bad idea, but now it's moving back west, putting more of the state in danger. Another storm where I've never seen it move the way it is moving where it is forecasted to go directly up the peninsula. It'll be much different than the people there are probably used to when it comes to landfalling hurricanes. When it comes to evacuations, there's nowhere for a lot of these people to go. I have a friend who lives in Florida, he didn't get out early, but he didn't hit a lot of traffic as he knew a lot of the backroads and traffic was light.
 
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LT

Global Moderator
Jul 23, 2010
41,543
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Irma is just about at Southern Florida as of 4PM EST Friday.

Not quite. Still at least 24 hours before it makes landfall in Florida. The southern region of the state will start to feel the impacts in the next few hours though, with that increasing in intensity for the next couple of days.

Cat 4 right now. Most def going to hit South Florida at this point according to reports.

Jose Cat 4 behind it looks like it may head East away from Florida, but some said this about Irma. Could clip the same set of islands that were devastated already.

There's very little chance Jose hits the US. The ridge that was pushing Irma west has mostly eroded, and will allow steering winds to take Jose north and eventually east, away from the States.

They had an owner of a bar in Key Largo on CNN last night. He said he was actually going to go south to Key West instead of evacuating north. He didn't want the storm to chase him into the traffic, and at the time given the cone, it didn't seem like a half-bad idea, but now it's moving back west, putting more of the state in danger. Another storm where I've never seen it move the way it is moving where it is forecasted to go directly up the peninsula. It'll be much different than the people there are probably used to when it comes to landfalling hurricanes. When it comes to evacuations, there's nowhere for a lot of these people to go. I have a friend who lives in Florida, he didn't get out early, but he didn't hit a lot of traffic as he knew a lot of the backroads and traffic was light.

This is a horrific idea that could get people killed.

The storm is going to weaken pretty rapidly once it makes landfall.

Key West is going to be impacted significantly by storm surge, something that won't be an issue on the mainland and further up the peninsula. Key West is also likely to see a direct hit from a potential Cat. 5 hurricane.

I hope he's reconsidered.

Evacuations aren't meant to get you out of the storms' path entirely, but to get you out of the regions that will be largely impossible to survive in. A storm surge of 10+ feet and winds gusting up to 200 miles per hour is obviously much, much worse than some heavy rain and 60ish mile per hour winds for several hours.
 

TeslaCoilFan

Slightly Elite Fan
Mar 17, 2017
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West of the Moon
Lightning evacuated their players, staff and families/pets to Nashville where our rookies are playing in a 3 game tournament with the Nashville Pred rookies to replace the 4 team one cancelled by Irma. Most players live down in South Tampa surrounded by or on the water or on Davis Island and their zone had a mandatory evacuation as of today.

The 11 pm EST update from the National Hurricane Center brings is now showing the greatest possibility of it making landfall in Cape Coral as at least a CAT 4. Depending on how much land it crosses, Irma might just be down to a CAT 2 or 3 by the time it makes it up to Tampa Bay. :::crosses fingers:::

Speaking as a 45+ yr. resident of Florida, am very glad to see people turning to the primary resource, the National Hurricane Center and other legit places for info such as https://www.tropicaltidbits.com and http://spaghettimodels.com. I lost ALL respect for the Weather Channel during the year we got hit by 4 hurricanes in one season and wouldn't trust their overly sensationalistic "reporting" for anything. :rant:

Some of the Meteorologists of local Florida stations are also excellent sources of information. Being in the Tampa Bay area, I usually follow Paul Dellegatto, @PaulFox13 https://www.facebook.com/paul.dellegattofox He can be a bit snarky at times but is very level headed and rational compared to some of the shrieking ninnies at some of the 'national' cable news channels. Good at explaining the science behind the models/predictions too.
 

GKJ

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
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The tracks are still pushing west. Miami is almost completely out of the cone.
 

LadyStanley

Registered User
Sep 22, 2004
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Sin City
The "cone" is the eye projected path, not where the storm's impact will be felt.

Both coasts of Florida will be impacted.
 

GKJ

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
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Latest advisory still has Irma moving due west at 9mph, 145mi SE of Key West with sustained winds of 125mph. Hurricane warning now extends over the entire peninsula.
 

GKJ

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
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damn that thing looks huge. almost the size of irma in 10 days.

what causes it to go northwestward near the carolinas? strange that it doesn't continue off into the atlantic.

And 10 days ago there were models that put Irma in the same direction. Right now an upper level high is keeping José from floating away and recoiling instead.
 

GKJ

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
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Another shift to the west in the forecast. About 14 miles since the last adjustment. The eye is just going to keep skirting the coast and go over Tampa Bay and then re-enter the Gulf before hitting the panhandle. That obviously slows down weakening.

Should be crossing Key West within the next couple of hours. 5am advisory had it 40 miles away
 

LT

Global Moderator
Jul 23, 2010
41,543
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Meanwhile:



Way too far advance to give this any reasonable thought.

Definitely something we need to watch (and the NHC will), but nothing to worry about. A single model run is pretty much irrelevant in decision making, especially this far out.
 

GKJ

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
185,686
37,481
The center is tracking more east than the forecast this morning thought, which you could kind of start to tell when it made landfall in Naples.

CNN has been trying their damnedest to get Anderson Cooper in the eye and they keep missing. Chris Cuomo was right in the middle of it though earlier because he was in Naples, but he almost missed it, too.

The eye has nearly collapsed at this point now that we have had landfall, and it might not make it back over open water where it could regenerate.
 

GKJ

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
185,686
37,481
Way too far advance to give this any reasonable thought.

Definitely something we need to watch (and the NHC will), but nothing to worry about. A single model run is pretty much irrelevant in decision making, especially this far out.

They had the same thing with Irma 10 days out, just one model they've produced.
 

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