2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season (Active Storms: Hurricane Jose)

[PredsV82]

Supposed to be flying into Houston on Monday....not sure if that'll happen, this storm looks crazy

if no one has told you yet both airports are closed

 

[LadyStanley]

Houston has cancelled school for the week.


Nephew's GF posted story on the (Louisiana bayou) Cajun Navy heading to Texas to help out flood victims with their flat bottom boats.

 

[LadyStanley]

From TWC, all Houston airports closed until at least Thursday

 

[chicagoskycam]

Houston floods from just a couple big storms, this has to be a mess down there. I wish I could get some shots of places I'm familiar with.

 

[ShootIt]

Ive read that Harvey has dumped 11 trillion gallons of water. And then a forbes article says up to 25 T may fall on Texas before it's all said and done.

And that 80% of those affected didn't have flood insurance.

Concerned we will see the death toll rise quite a bit once the water drops.

 

[LadyStanley]

I believe that Harvey at 52"+ of rain dumped is a new record for hurricane.

My nephew's GF's family had to evacuate. Parents have flood insurance so should be OK, but aunt/uncle did not. FEMA may be their only hope.

Realize that car insurers will be impacted as they do cover flood damage.

 

[LadyStanley]

Houston vs Las Vegas. 5 vs ~5000 days.

 

[ShootIt]

Not to get too ahead of myself, as the forecast is too early to talk about for Irma and possible paths, but wow, another major hurricane is here, and it's still far out in the Atlantic.

Not to mention there's a huge wave about to come off the African coast behind Irma.

We may have a very busy September.

 

[LadyStanley]

And October and November.

 

[LT]

Not to get too ahead of myself, as the forecast is too early to talk about for Irma and possible paths, but wow, another major hurricane is here, and it's still far out in the Atlantic.

Not to mention there's a huge wave about to come off the African coast behind Irma.

We may have a very busy September.

There's also a disturbance north of the Yucatan peninsula that could bring more rain to SE Texas.

Irma (for the moment) doesn't look as though it will go anywhere near land. It's still over a week out, however, and things could change very quickly.

The new disturbance is probably 2 weeks out, nearly impossible to know anything definitive about what that will do yet.

 

[LT]

Some model tracks on Irma.

This set (which is more reliable, IMO) paints a worse picture for the US. Hadn't seen this one until now.

 

[LT]

For those wondering where those charts came from: http://spaghettimodels.com

Another great resource: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

And the best place for reliable tropical cyclone information: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[OhCaptainMyCaptain]

Tropical Tidbits is my jam. Love that place.

As for Irma, the GFS has been all over the place lately. The track has been, actually, fairly decent considering how far away it is from the U.S., but the dynamics surrounding it have not been, so it's hard to draw too many conclusions.

As I've been saying since yesterday, here is what should be known about Irma:

1. It's still a week or more away from the U.S., so no need to jump to any conclusions yet.
2. It's already a strong storm
3. It's likely going to just continue to get stronger as it moves west, even up into the Category 4/5 area, potentially
4. Outside of the next few days, we don't know a lot. And since it's still a week and a half from the potential landfall, no need to model hug at this point.
5. That said, the potential for U.S. landfall certainly does exist at this point. Even if it doesn't make landfall, it's probably going to be so close that it will definitely need to be monitored extensively.
6. And last, it's still a week or more away from the U.S., so no need to jump to any conclusions yet.

 

[LadyStanley]

(And I'm watching Pacific TS Lidia which may hit me in Vegas, or head out to see and not impact me at all.)

 

[LT]

Irma's looking like it could crush Florida, based on current model runs. Yikes.

Still about a week out, though. Plenty of time for things to change significantly.

 

[ShootIt]

Loaded up on food.

If it is a strong cat 4 at landfall(FL) I'll be leaving.
Not a good time for my wife to be 8 months pregnant. lol

 

[LT]

 

[ShootIt]

Eric Blake 🌀 ✆@EricBlake12
#Irma is strongest #hurricane on record that far east. My god. Rush all preparations to completion in the hurricane warning area! https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905037369627222016 …

175 mph winds.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Andrew may be forgotten in south florida if this keeps this pace.

 

[HollaHaula]

Eric Blake 🌀 ✆@EricBlake12
#Irma is strongest #hurricane on record that far east. My god. Rush all preparations to completion in the hurricane warning area! https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905037369627222016 …

175 mph winds.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Andrew may be forgotten in south florida if this keeps this pace.

Careful on the rhetoric. Irma is forecast to skate pretty close by the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba. Interacting with land can cause the hurricane to weaken quite a bit and disrupt the circulation. On top of that, it also needs to make a hard northward turn, which models have been all over the place with regards to how hard that turn actually is.

The worst-case scenario is if Irma comes out of the Carribean Islands without too much weakening and then turns very hard northward so that the northern eyewall is directly on the eastern Florida coast. But, a lot has to go right in order for that to happen.

Andrew was basically in open water (aside from the small Bahama Islands) so it could get all of the fuel it needed from the warm ocean water. Then, it just slammed head on into South Florida.

 

[LT]

Careful on the rhetoric. Irma is forecast to skate pretty close by the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba. Interacting with land can cause the hurricane to weaken quite a bit and disrupt the circulation. On top of that, it also needs to make a hard northward turn, which models have been all over the place with regards to how hard that turn actually is.

The worst-case scenario is if Irma comes out of the Carribean Islands without too much weakening and then turns very hard northward so that the northern eyewall is directly on the eastern Florida coast. But, a lot has to go right in order for that to happen.

Andrew was basically in open water (aside from the small Bahama Islands) so it could get all of the fuel it needed from the warm ocean water. Then, it just slammed head on into South Florida.

It's still looking like it'll be at worst a category 4 upon landfall in Florida.

Unless the forecasts are wrong (which is possible), this is going to be a very dangerous and significant storm. It could rival Andrew in terms of landfall strength and impact.

The models are generally starting to agree more and more on the hard right turn. They seem to be coming to a consensus, which would take it right through the Miami area.

It also doesn't look as though it'll make a landfall over any of the Caribbean islands, which means it shouldn't see much of a disruption. There is some stronger shear in its forecasted path, however, which could weaken the storm significantly.

 

[ShootIt]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017090512&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=0

Back to back GFS runs, (6am/12pm) showing it skirt/make landfall on the East Coast of Florida. But it'll still pack a very dangerous punch to Georgia/SC.

Very curious how the Euro will look this afternoon.

 

[ShootIt]

185 sustained. 5mph from the Atlantic record IIRC

It's still far out, but I'm comfortably numb.

 

[LadyStanley]

TWC indicating that FL governor has declared state of emergency and some areas will have mandatory evacuation

 

[GKJ]

This one's going to be packing some juice too, obviously. Coming up underneath of the ridge will keep the waters warm if it goes west of Florida

 

[Gardner McKay]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017090512&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=0

Back to back GFS runs, (6am/12pm) showing it skirt/make landfall on the East Coast of Florida. But it'll still pack a very dangerous punch to Georgia/SC.

Very curious how the Euro will look this afternoon.

Some of the forecasts last night had it remaining a category 1-2 while by the time it hits Georgia. That can't be right? Can it?