Prospect Info: 2017 Leafs Board Prospect Ranking #21

[Schenn]

Hello all, I will make a thread everyday until we have determined the top 30 prospects according to Leaf fans on HFBoards.

Rankings:
1. Timothy Liljegren -- 57.66%
2. Kasperi Kapanen -- 89.47%
3. Travis Dermott -- 83.75%
4. Carl Grundstrom -- 55.23%
5. Yegor Korshkov -- 35.67%
6. Jeremy Bracco --34.48%
7. Andreas Johnsson -- 25.48%
8. Andrew Nielsen -- 42.07%
9. Andreas Borgman -- 31.45%
10. Joseph Woll -- 31.54%
11. Eemeli Rasanan -- 26.67%
12. Kerby Rychel -- 27.87%
13. Calle Rosen -- 36.67%
14. Adam Brooks -- 43.42%
15. Dmytro Timashov -- 31.75%
16. Miro Aaltonen -- 34.38%
17. Frederik Gauthier -- 46.67%
18. JD Greenway -- 41.05%
19. Martin Dzierkals -- 19.51%
20. Dakota Joshua -- 15.53%
21.

______________
On The Docket:
Nikolai Chebykin
Garrett Sparks
Vladislav Kara
Tobias Lindberg
Jesper Lindgren
Ian Scott
Fedor Gordeev
Justin Holl
Pierre Engvall
Rinat Valiev
Nicolas Mattinen
Keaton Middleton
Kasimir Kaskisuo
Trevor Moore
Vladimir Bobylev


____________
Next on the List:

John Piccinich
Pierre Engvall
Nolan Vesey
Jack Walker
Ryan McGregor
Ryan O'Connell


______________
Past Results:

Prospect Ranking #1
Prospect Ranking #2
Prospect Ranking #3
Prospect Ranking #4
Prospect Ranking #5
Prospect Ranking #6
Prospect Ranking #7
Prospect Ranking #8
Prospect Ranking #9
Prospect Ranking #10
Prospect Ranking #11
Prospect Ranking #12
Prospect Ranking #13
Prospect Ranking #14
Prospect Ranking #15
Prospect Ranking #16
Prospect Ranking #17
Prospect Ranking #18
Prospect Ranking #20


2016 Final Result
2015 Final Result
2014 Final Result
2013 Final Result
2012 Final Result
2011 Final Result
2010 Final Result

Suggest who I should add next.

Click to read more...

 

[htpwn]

2017 Rankings thus far

Pos. | Player | 2017 | 2016+ | 2016-
RD |

Timothy Liljegren | 1 | -- | --
RW |

Kasperi Kapanen | 2 | 6 | 1
LD |

Travis Dermott | 3 | 8 | 2
LW |

Carl Grundström | 4 | 18 | 10
RW |

Yegor Korshkov | 5 | 14 | 7
RW |

Jeremy Bracco | 6 | 17 | 9
LW |

Andreas Johnsson | 7 | 10 | 3
LD |

Andrew Nielsen | 8 | 13 | 6
LD |

Andreas Borgman | 9 | -- | --
G |

Joseph Woll | 10 | 23 | 13
RD |

Eemeli Räsänan | 11 | -- | --
W |

Kerby Rychel | 12 | 12 | 5
LD |

Calle Rosén | 13 | -- | --
C |

Adam Brooks | 14 | 24 | 14
W |

Dmytro Timashov | 15 | 11 | 4
F |

Miro Aaltonen | 16 | -- | --
C |

Frederik Gauthier | 17 | 22 | 12
LD |

JD Greenway | 18 | 25 | 15
W |

Martins Dzierkals | 19 | 26 | 16
C |

Dakota Joshua | 20 | NR | NR

2017 Rank
2016+ -- Last year's rank.
2016- -- Last year's rank minus prospects who graduated or are no longer with the organization.​

It is kind of cool to see Joshua up at #20. He was drafted in 2014, so this is the 3rd prospect rankings he's been listed in. He's never cracked the list (top 30). Over the years, the following prospects have been made the top 30 ahead of him: N. Vesey, B. Ross, J. Devane, R. Rupert, E. Knodel, T. Cameranesi, F. Herzog, D. Broll, A. MacWilliam, D. Toninato, A. Bibeau, T. Biggs, G. McKegg, S. Carrick, V. Lööv, T. Nilsson, C. Ashton, C. Verhaghe, P. Granberg, S. Percy, M. Finn, C. Bailey, N. Korostelev, S. Harrington, B. Leipsic, F. Corrado. 26 in all. A few guys could still make an impact in other organizations (i.e. Leipsic) but most never had more than a cup of coffee with the Leafs, if they cracked the NHL at all.

--

I voted Sparks at #21. The disaster that was the end of 2015-16 aside, in which he was thrown to the wolves for the good of the tank, he’s done nothing but put up very solid numbers otherwise. He dominated the ECHL in a way that few goalies do and is one of the better starting netminders in the American league when he can stay healthy. The Leafs signed him to a two-year extension so they clearly want him around. I believe that if McBackup falters this year, he’s the backup plan, and I think he’s good enough to succeed in that role. Guys like Moore, Lindberg, and Valiev are next on my list.

 

[Morgs]

Moore for me.

Had a great NCAA career, and was good last year in the AHL. That's more than most people left.

Scott next for me.

 

[Cor]

Ian Scott

Stat watchers be damned

 

[MJ65]

Scott

 

[SeaOfBlue]

21) Moore
22) Scott
23) Kaskisuo
24) Lindgren
25) Middleton
26) Engvall
27) Chebykin
28) Gordeev
29) Lindberg
30) Piccinich/Bobylev/Kara

McGregor and Kara can make big jumps next year though, and like the rest of the guys outside of the top 30, they just need to show more at their current level because they were raw, had an injury, did not get a ton of playing time, or were stuck on a crappy team.

Just an FYI, in terms of skill Valiev, Holl and Sparks would probably be top 30, but Valiev and Sparks have both played 10+ NHL games. I still consider Holl a prospect, but his value comes as more of a LoVerde or Campbell and how he helps our better prospects develop rather than what he can do himself so there is not a ton of NHL upside there.

 

[Bullseye]

A Ton in the Middle.

 

[4thline]

Middleton. Picked within 30 picks of Greenway and IMO better as of today. And more importantly a better kind of raw.

Middleton came up through a rural AAA program, likely getting by on size and natural talent. Technically raw from the skills/ skating standpoint, has already seen huge development from working with pro staff

Greenway came up through pretty much the most Elite/ prestigious path you can in the states, Stattuck + USNDP. Great physical tools, great technical skills, but his "raw" is upstairs which isn't great for someone that came through that kind of development system. Pretty much a case of it clicks or doesn't.

I think you can argue them either way, but it's hard to justify the ~6-7 spot difference this vote is trending towards

food for thought-
The Spirit were a cumulative -23 at even strength last year (5v5,4v4,3v3) Middleton was +8. 5v5 alone it's -13 for the team, +6 for Middleton
The Spirit scored 152 goals 5v5- Middleton's 5v5 P/GP was .22
Compared to
Knights 198 goals 5v5, Juolevi's 5v5 P/GP .34 .

Further food for thought

Middleton- 42 GA 5v5

Sergachev- 40
Hague 46
Timmins 47
Day 51
Juolevi 52
Teammate Hronek- 55

 

[showtime8]

Ian Scott.

 

[LeafGrief]

Middleton. Picked within 30 picks of Greenway and IMO better as of today. And more importantly a better kind of raw.

Middleton came up through a rural AAA program, likely getting by on size and natural talent. Technically raw from the skills/ skating standpoint, has already seen huge development from working with pro staff

Greenway came up through pretty much the most Elite/ prestigious path you can in the states, Stattuck + USNDP. Great physical tools, great technical skills, but his "raw" is upstairs which isn't great for someone that came through that kind of development system. Pretty much a case of it clicks or doesn't.

I think you can argue them either way, but it's hard to justify the ~6-7 spot difference this vote is trending towards

food for thought-
The Spirit were a cumulative -23 at even strength last year (5v5,4v4,3v3) Middleton was +8. 5v5 alone it's -13 for the team, +6 for Middleton
The Spirit scored 152 goals 5v5- Middleton's 5v5 P/GP was .22
Compared to
Knights 198 goals 5v5, Juolevi's 5v5 P/GP .34 .

Further food for thought

Middleton- 42 GA 5v5

Sergachev- 40
Hague 46
Timmins 47
Day 51
Juolevi 52
Teammate Hronek- 55

Thanks for this write-up. I've always been a fan of the Middleton pick and it's great to see some stats that show there is a bit of promise there. He's still an outside chance at becoming an impact player, but I think he has a lot of upside once things start to click for him. I'm a fan of Gordeev for the same reasons. Odds are against them, but it's clear that Hunter + co like massive defensemen from bad OHL teams.

I voted Middleton, but I don't think there are right/wrong answers at this point.

 

[selltrade]

Kasimir Kaskisuo , he was pretty damn good for the Marlies last year

 

[7even]

Ian Scott.

Ian Scott is Garrett Sparks before he got good.

I can't think of a reasonable argument to have Scott over Sparks at this point other than "lol cuz"

 

[4thline]

Ian Scott is Garrett Sparks before he got good.

I can't think of a reasonable argument to have Scott over Sparks at this point other than "lol cuz"

Personally I would vote Scott before Sparks because I no longer consider Sparks a prospect. Tweener on his third pro contract, no longer waivers exempt unless the goalie clause is more lenient than I remember.

Could argue that Scott has 5 years to put his tools to use and explode, whereas Sparks will only remain our property from this point if he A- seizes our back up job, B-no one in the league sees his value as a backup.

 

[ObscureAlien]

21) Lindgren
22) Moore
23) Scott

 

[Kiwi]

Middleton

 

[showtime8]

Ian Scott is Garrett Sparks before he got good.

I can't think of a reasonable argument to have Scott over Sparks at this point other than "lol cuz"

Why wouldn't Scott be a as good as Sparks?

 

[slimbob8]

Ian Scott

Stat watchers be damned

Exactly, trust the scouts. If ever you need a reason to believe that instead of your 2 seconds of hockeydb research, look to Matt Murray's draft year numbers for encouragement. They make Scott's numbers look pretty damn good in comparison!

.876 sv%, 4.08 GAA and he turned out alright.

 

[Damisoph]

I think we're sleeping on Jesper Lindgren a bit.

 

[showtime8]

Exactly, trust the scouts. If ever you need a reason to believe that instead of your 2 seconds of hockeydb research, look to Matt Murray's draft year numbers for encouragement. They make Scott's numbers look pretty damn good in comparison!

.876 sv%, 4.08 GAA and he turned out alright.

This is a great point and shouldn't get overlooked.

Scott's numbers are going to be brutal because of the team he plays for. Much like Murray when he was playing for the 2nd last place Soo Greyhounds.

He's also the mid round goalie that you take a shot with to see where he turns out. He's got the size and the technical ability that you want to see in a goalie. Doesn't over-commit a lot and he isn't the type where he's out of position and just trying to stop the puck any way he can like Reimer & Sparks.