2017 HFNHL Flames Draft Review

[MatthewFlames]

I had 3 tiers of player for this 20th pick. The top 2 tiers had 13 players. Andersson was in my top 13, but Darryl took him at 18. Vesalainen was 13th on my list and of course Brock took him at 19, so it was down to the 3rd tier, but the 14th player on my list.

Round #1, Pick #20 - RYAN POEHLING (C)- ST. CLOUD STATE - NCAA

Poehling is pretty low risk, and similar to other centers I've drafted before who've worked out, players like like Berglund and Anisimov. Also, I don't mind the lack of production as a 17 yr old in NCAA. I targeted Greer a couple seasons ago from the NCAA despite his low scoring, based on his earlier seasons, and that has worked out fine.

Poehling is a big body, strong skater, north-south kind of player with exceptional hand eye coordination. He's a leader as well, wears the "C" for the USA in International tournaments. Will need development, and he's probably 3 years away from his first pro season.

Also considered: Robert Thomas, also had the option to move down to 28 in a swap with the Habs (that would have garnered the 57 as well) but in the end I decided that I liked Poehling much more than anyone who would have been available later in the 1st.

Tried to move up into the 40's to nab Heponiemi, but failed. My tier for 51 also ran out, when Tampa took Brook and Tony took Samberg just before my pick, so I did something very unconventional; for the first time since 2004 (yes, 2004, and then it was only a 3rd), the Flames drafted a goalie on day one.

Round #2, Pick #51 - UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN (G) HPK - FINLAND

It's just so hard with goalies - but this year I think the pool is better than any since 2012 - Luukkonen was 3rd on my goalie list, behind DiPietro and Oettinger. Did consider the 4th guy on my list, Ian Scott, who has similar attributes. Very athletic, well versed in the fundamentals. Has NHL size. In the end, the key was the mental make-up and puck handling. Luukkonen has proven to be a winner, and doesn't seem to be phased when he lets in a bad goal. And his puck skills are superior. Still think Scott could be the best goalie in the draft, but is getting sandbagged by his brutal team. But it was just too hard to tell. Regardless, Luukkonen needs a lot of development, especially with his rebound control, and hopefully the bad 2017 WJ U-18 performance was just a blip.

Also considered: Ian Scott

Made some half hearted attempts to trade into the 3rd to pick some faves.

Also finally ditched Dion for cap space to make some trade moves, picking up a future 2nd rounder.

Click to read more...

 

[Ohio Jones]

A productive draft day (as is any day you clear $7M in cap space!).

Lots of like about both players.

 

[Lord Stanley]

I had Luukkonen as the 2nd best goalie in the draft. He was one of the players I was considering at 55 before I had to deal it away to Detroit.

 

[Hossa]

Kersheezy, recognizing some of your tiers didn't play as you hoped, I still think this is a strong set of picks. As you know, I'd have taken both your players had you passed.

Poehling will be interesting to watch. I think the tools are underrated, and his so-so performance at the U18s unfairly reinforces, in the minds of some, the stats-driven perception that he lacks offensive upside. I think it's a bit too early to forecast his ceiling, but I like the tools a lot.

 

[MatthewFlames]

Round #5, Pick #150 - DANIIL TARASOV (G) - TOLPAR UFA, RUSSIA

If things couldn't get stranger on the Flames draft front, the Flames actually drafted a Russian goalie for the first time ever. Tarasov, not to be confused with his namesake, the former Sharks winger, is a 6'4" goalie who first came to attention in the 2016 U-18's playing for Russia. He had a great tournament as an underager.

An injury and knee surgery meant he didn't play in his draft year (the first of two such picks by the Flames this year) but Tarasov was 2nd on the Flames list for this pick. He's not a boom or bust prospect, but more like a boom or retire prospect, but worth a shot as he has draft day 1 talent and size.

Also targeted: Dylan Ferguson.

Round #7, Pick #197 - JACOB MCGREW (F) - SPOKANE CHIEFS, WHL

Not the ideal size, this swift skating winger with a goalscorers touch signed to play in the WHL but was injured in the pre-season and missed the entire year.

He got a mid-round sleeper mention in Redline, and after I followed that up with reading a positive scouting report in Black Book, I decided to take a flyer. Unlikely to be drafted but this is the kind of pick I love making.

McGrew played for the US under-17's in the Five Nations tourney, alongside familiar names like HFNHL 1st rounder Chmelevski, Brannon McManus and Lodnia (other kids from Anaheim who should get drafted this upcoming weekend.). He scored 4 goals in that tournament.

Also targeted Ryan Hughes and Denis Smirnov

Round #7, Pick #198 - AARNE TALVITIE (F) - BLUES, FINLAND

Super excited about this pick, super surprised he fell. This guy just scored a PPG at the world U-18's, where he was team captain. Yet, only Brock and I had him on their lists. Only 5'11", but already 200lbs, can play center or wing. A riser on the CSB lists, a player that improved steadily during his draft year. He's gritty and plays with strength along the walls, is a strong skater with a nasty wrist shot.

May come to the US this year, before heading to Penn State to join fellow Flamettes prospects Biro and Pavlychev (and sadly not Denis Smirnov, damn you Dan Chan!)

Round #7, Pick #202 - GERA PODDUBNYI (F) - ERIE OTTERS, OHL

In the following of a theme, or multiple themes, the Flames took another Russian forward who a) played on the bottom line of a strong team and therefore saw limited minutes but may have upside, b) is a Russian who moved to Pennsylvania as a younger teenager (Pavlychev did that), c) led the Tier 1 Elite league in scoring as a 16 year old, when Jake McGrew was 2nd in scoring. Got all that?

Poddubnyi is an intriguing prospect who our own Brock Otten ranked 45th in his OHL ranking of DE prospects. He's got NHL size, at 6'2" and 185lbs.

Brock says: In particular, I thought he had an excellent playoff run for Erie. Poddubnyi showcases some slick puck skills in transition and his ability to play through traffic really improved in the second half and playoffs. I think he's a real sleeper.

Round #7, Pick #206 - KEVIN HANCOCK (C/LW) - OWEN SOUND ATTACK, OHL

Hancock is an overager who exploded his points total this year, due to his improved play and his luck in having his linemates be Gadjovich and Suzuki. Still, he should get himself drafted this year. Average size, improving skater. Seems like a solid complimentary player who is defensively responsible, protects the puck well, and is able to get it to his linemates. Perhaps he can carve out a bottom 6 role in the NHL.

Brock, who had him rated as the 3rd best re-entry, says: He's one of the top two-way forwards in the OHL (was named the 2nd best defensive forward in the Western Conference in the annual Coaches Poll) and brings a lot of versatility to the lineup by being able to play any forward position.

Round #7, Pick #207 - SHAWN BOUDRIAS (RW) - GATINEAU OLYMPIQUE, QMJHL

Boudrias is one of the youngest players in the draft, his birthday is September 14, 1999. He's already a giant at 6'4" and almost 200 lbs, and he saw dramatic improvement of his game over the season, especially after a trade from Charlottetown.

Redline had him ranked 114, stating that he has soft hands and a good shot but he needs to play a heavier game down low. Skating a real concern, which is why he's fallen this far in the draft, but he has shown improvement.

Round #7, Pick #211 - OTTO LATVALA (D) - HPK, FINLAND

Latvala is a giant (6'5") defenseman who saw rapid improvement this season playing in front of Luukkonen in Finland, both for club and country. Still a very raw player who's only just putting it all together and will be a long term project. He's physical along the boards, which will help his future, but he needs to fill out his frame and improve his coordination. Was the U-20 league's rookie of the year.

 

[MatthewFlames]

With the trade of Alex Stalock, the Flames have broken a trend of still having 1 player from every draft since 2004 on their current roster or prospects list who has played in the NHL.

As of that trade day, the Flames had 21 players from the 2004 to 2016 drafts, at least one from every draft.

One of the things my xls file does is that it tracks some basic draft stats.

The biggest one is that between the years 2004 to 2013, the Flames drafted 72 players and 48 of them played at least one game in the NHL, and 24 of them played close to or over 100 games, or full season as back-up goalies. 24 had at least a cup of coffee.

That's 64.86% of all players drafted between 2004-2013 got to the NHL.

Since 2004, the Flames have drafted 120 players, including this draft.

55 Canadians, 28 Americans, 10 Russians (too low), 9 Czechs, 8 Swedes (too low), 5 Fins (too low), as well as players from Slovakia, Austria, Denmark and two from Switzerland.

That's 45% Canadian.

There is a clear western bias, 30 players, 25% of all picks, are from the WHL. 18 from USHS, which is the second place the Flames like to draft from. These are mostly late round flyers. 16 players have come from the OHL, 12 from the QMJHL (Almost a full 50% of drafted players are from the CHL.). There are 7 NCAA players, only 4 USHL players and 2 from the USNDP.

Some other neat stats:

Between 2005 and 2011, the Flames drafted 5 full time NHL'ers in the 7th round.

On the current Flames Pro Roster, 10 out of 20 players were drafted directly by the team.

KEY -

Column 1 - Country
Column 2 - League
Column 3 - NHL (Y (full season), S (some NHL), N (No NHL), E (too early)
Column 4 - Pick #
Column 5 - Round

Colours
Green = on prospect/roster and NHL games
White = on prospect list and no NHL games
Yellow = no longer a Flamette and NHL games
Red = no longer a Flamette and no NHL games

 

[Vagrant]

Awesome picks. Hate you for the UP Lukkonen pick, as mentioned in my breakdown. But wow, check out that 2013 draft. Very rarely do you see that kind of success rate.

 

[MatthewFlames]

20 1 Ryan Poehling - NHL (MTL) - Round 1 - 25th - -5
51 2 Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen - NHL (BUF) - Round 2 - 54th - -3
150 5 Daniil Tarasov - NHL. ( CBJ) - Round 3 - 86th - +64
197 7 Jacob McGrew - NHL - (SJS) - Round 6 - 159th - +38
198 7 Aarne Talvitie - NHL - (NJD) - Round 6 - 160th - +38
202 7 Gera Poddubnyi - undrafted - Nashville Predators Dev Camp
206 7 Kevin Hancock - undrafted - Tampa Bay Lightning Dev Camp
207 7 Shawn Boudrias - undrafted - Boston Bruin Dev Camp
211 7 Otto Latvala - undrafted

 

[CopperAndBlueGM]

Matt,
Nice draft and some really good goalie picks.
For my Day 2 draft list I had Tarasov as my 2nd highest goalie (behind Ustimenko) and even then it was only b/c of the knee injury I didn't have him higher.

Matt Gledhill used to give me fits in my final years with Detroit as he kept beating me to under the radar goalies I had targeted on Day 2 (Martin Jones was the most frustrating). With picks like Luukonen and Tarasov I suspect I'm going to curse the name 'Matt' going forward as well.

 

[MatthewFlames]

Matt,
Nice draft and some really good goalie picks.
For my Day 2 draft list I had Tarasov as my 2nd highest goalie (behind Ustimenko) and even then it was only b/c of the knee injury I didn't have him higher.

What's even weirder is the truth about Tarasov's injury, now that it has been revealed. He had a benign growth on his shin that was removed which meant he couldn't wear pads. Probably a way better scenario than his knee.