Prospect Info: 2017 HF Devils Top 20 Prospect Rankings: #20

[Triumph]

I didn't really compare him to Seth Helgeson...I was more saying his accomplishments/resume were about the same, as in 3 non-eventful AHL season with some NHL games sprinkled.

Sure he is younger, sure he is a better prospect...And in the few clips I've seen of him he is already a better player...Perhaps it was a bad analogy but he hasn't accomplished anything - It was more meant that you can take any random D prospect in the AHL who has had some spot duty in the NHL and he has no better pedigree than anyone.

And again, that just isn't true, Helgeson turns 27 this year and Mueller turns 23 next year, they were born 4 1/2 years apart.

 

[JimEIV]

And again, that just isn't true, Helgeson turns 27 this year and Mueller turns 23 next year, they were born 4 1/2 years apart.

They both have about the same exact time in the pro's.

But on a side note, you seems pretty consistently denigrate 4 year NCAA players for their age. I think you should rethink that, at least take a less skeptical approach ...especially when it concerns fringe style players.

There have been a lot of good ones...And there have been some decent ones that spent a couple years in the AHL before they got an opportunity.

You seem to make an automatic assumption that 4 year player means they aren't good to begin with, that is shortsighted or unfair at the very least.

 

[Triumph]

They both have about the same exact time in the pro's.

But on a side note, you seems pretty consistently denigrate 4 year NCAA players for their age. I think you should rethink that, at least take a less skeptical approach ...especially when it concerns fringe style players.

There have been a lot of good ones...And there have been some decent ones that spent a couple years in the AHL before they got an opportunity.

You seem to make an automatic assumption that 4 year player means they aren't good to begin with, that is shortsighted or unfair at the very least.

Helgeson is not an NHL player - his production in college yelled that out loud and his play in the NHL screamed it louder. Make this argument when you're not making a horrendous comparison between a 22 1/2 year old player and a 26 3/4th year old player. Age matters a lot, and you don't seem to understand that.

 

[JimEIV]

Helgeson is not an NHL player - his production in college yelled that out loud and his play in the NHL screamed it louder. Make this argument when you're not making a horrendous comparison between a 22 1/2 year old player and a 26 3/4th year old player. Age matters a lot, and you don't seem to understand that.

Age matters less than experience.

 

[devilsblood]

Age matters less than experience.

Do you not count college as experience?

 

[devilsblood]

Talvitie add Jacobs.

 

[JimEIV]

Do you not count college as experience?

Not really...It is not that its no experience, it is that is just so different in terms of number of games, preparation, life style...It is not being a pro and being responsible for your own preparation, meals, sleep, living conditions, transportation ...It's just another world.

 

[devilsblood]

Not really...It is not that its no experience, it is that is just so different in terms of number of games, preparation, life style...It is not being a pro and being responsible for your own preparation, meals, sleep, living conditions, transportation ...It's just another world.

But it's 4 years in which he is getting better. So whether we call it experience or not, it is developmental time. And in that regard, he is 4 years ahead of Mueller.

 

[JimEIV]

But it's 4 years in which he is getting better. So whether we call it experience or not, it is developmental time. And in that regard, he is 4 years ahead of Mueller.

You are making a broad assumption that duration means progression. It doesn't

 

[Triumph]

Age matters less than experience.

No, it doesn't. If it did we wouldn't see 18 and 19 year old players break into the league consistently, and we wouldn't see them excel.

If a player comes out of college having played 4 years and doesn't jump right into the AHL and play like a top liner, it's very unlikely he will be anything at the NHL level. We see this time and time again, but it's just going to be doomed to repeat itself until you stop citing the few examples that don't follow this pattern.

 

[JimEIV]

No, it doesn't. If it did we wouldn't see 18 and 19 year old players break into the league consistently, and we wouldn't see them excel.

If a player comes out of college having played 4 years and doesn't jump right into the AHL and play like a top liner, it's very unlikely he will be anything at the NHL level. We see this time and time again, but it's just going to be doomed to repeat itself until you stop citing the few examples that don't follow this pattern.

There are many. And if you go down to 3 year NCAA players with multiple seasons in AHL there are even more.

 

[Cheddabombs]

On my phone now so I'll keep it short. From what I can see if Mueller was our property to begin with this wouldn't be a problem. Because people here will fight tooth and nail for a rather unimpressive, sans a small stretch this past season, Jon Merrill saying he has more to give. But the new guy is pretty much a lost cause or at least so much so that he's no better than guys we drafted in the 4th round this past draft. Poppy, Walsh or anyone else below Mueller could end up being better, maybe much better, than him down the line. But for now I have no reason to believe that.

 

[Triumph]

There are many. And if you go down to 3 year NCAA players with multiple seasons in AHL there are even more.

So if you goalpost shift from your original premise, implictily acknowledging that age, not experience is the important point here, it gets stronger? Wow. Color me surprised I guess.

When we're talking about skaters, the AHL is a developmental league for 3rd and 4th line players and 4-6 D, by and large. We can just go through seasons and look at the best AHL rookies and where they ended up. Some of them do end up being 1st and 2nd line players, but most of them don't even end up as permanent NHLers. The idea that players progress through the AHL, getting better, until they are 'ready' to be NHLers isn't borne out by a whole lot - frankly it seems to be borne out of the rare systems, like the Red Wings in the late 00s and Devils in the late 90s, who developed star players out of their AHL system. In most organizations, by and large, the guy who finally makes it on the team after several years in the minors is a fringe NHLer who do not make a large contribution to wins and losses.

If we want to bring this back to Mueller, the idea that Mueller is 'getting better' by experience isn't borne out by a whole lot. People who follow SJ's AHL team said that his ice time was being cut, and his GF% stats aren't promising. Those can be misleading over a one season sample for sure.

 

[JimEIV]

So if you goalpost shift from your original premise, implictily acknowledging that age, not experience is the important point here, it gets stronger? Wow. Color me surprised I guess.

When we're talking about skaters, the AHL is a developmental league for 3rd and 4th line players and 4-6 D, by and large. We can just go through seasons and look at the best AHL rookies and where they ended up. Some of them do end up being 1st and 2nd line players, but most of them don't even end up as permanent NHLers. The idea that players progress through the AHL, getting better, until they are 'ready' to be NHLers isn't borne out by a whole lot - frankly it seems to be borne out of the rare systems, like the Red Wings in the late 00s and Devils in the late 90s, who developed star players out of their AHL system. In most organizations, by and large, the guy who finally makes it on the team after several years in the minors is a fringe NHLer who do not make a large contribution to wins and losses.

If we want to bring this back to Mueller, the idea that Mueller is 'getting better' by experience isn't borne out by a whole lot. People who follow SJ's AHL team said that his ice time was being cut, and his GF% stats aren't promising. Those can be misleading over a one season sample for sure.

There is no goal post shifting...You constantly portray 4 year NCAA players as nothing...And that is just plain old wrong

- A record 314 former college players skated in the NHL in 2016-17, comprising 32% of the league.

70% of those players played 3 or more years in the NCAA.

58 players made there NHL debut after the age of 23 in 2016-17

42 were 24 or older:
Birth years:
4 from 1990 26/27 years old
16 from 1991 25/26 years old
22 from 1992 24/25 years old


Take a look at this page...None this addresses the skill level of these players players of course, but the notion that there is an expiration date on these prospects is what I object to, the goal post never moved.

http://collegehockeyinc.com/in-the-nhl.php

 

[devilsblood]

You are making a broad assumption that duration means progression. It doesn't

So you don't think players typically get better while in college?

I mean, I hear what you are saying, we don't know if Mueller will get better or not, Helg has not really improved since leaving college, but even with the unimpressive #s I assume he was better as a Senior then he was as a freshman. Thus I don't think we can say Helg and Mueller are at the same stage in their career's even if they have similar pro experience.

If either of these have more room for growth it's Mueller.

 

[Triumph]

There is no goal post shifting...You constantly portray 4 year NCAA players as nothing...And that is just plain old wrong

- A record 314 former college players skated in the NHL in 2016-17, comprising 32% of the league.

70% of those players played 3 or more years in the NCAA.

58 players made there NHL debut after the age of 23 in 2016-17

42 were 24 or older:
Birth years:
4 from 1990 26/27 years old
16 from 1991 25/26 years old
22 from 1992 24/25 years old


Take a look at this page...None this addresses the skill level of these players players of course, but the notion that there is an expiration date on these prospects is what I object to, the goal post never moved.

http://collegehockeyinc.com/in-the-nhl.php

What you did was a literal goalpost shift. It is the definition. You told me I don't respect 4 year NCAA players. Now you're talking about players who played 3 or more years. That was not what we were talking about. We were talking about 4 year players, so let's stick with that.

You have a big problem with the phrase very unlikely. Very unlikely does not mean 0%. It means what it is - very unlikely. It is very unlikely that either of the two Blakes become NHL regulars. And even beyond that, it's more unlikely that they become top 9 forwards who have an impact on wins and losses. But it's still possible. It happens sometimes that guys improve in their mid 20s and become NHL players.

Let's do a fun exercise where we go back to a year - say, 2012, and look at the 24, 25, and 26 year old rookies who played 4 years of NCAA. Actually, let's pick 2 years, that way we get a full spread - so this covers players who were 24-26 making their debuts in 2010-11 or 2011-12 who had 4 years of NCAA. I picked these years because there's no one on this list about whom there's a question - everyone is around 30 now, and these guys have all had their pull at the brass ring.

Matt Read
Harry Zolnierczyk
Erik Condra
Colin Greening
Ryan Garbutt
Matt Taormina
Chris Mueller
Aaron Volpatti
Chad Rau
Joe Vitale
Jarod Palmer
David McIntyre
Mike Moore
Chay Genoway
Kris Fredheim
Lee Sweatt
Travis Turnbull
Carl Sneep
Ryan Thang
Matt Watkins

This list isn't totally devoid of talent - Matt Read is/was a pretty good player who spent several years as a 2nd/3rd line guy, Colin Greening had a few good seasons, so did Ryan Garbutt, Erik Condra had some useful years, Joe Vitale played in 234 NHL games. But it's pretty bad, and most of the guys on this list had no impact in the NHL. Some other HF team board's Bleedred might bring them up as a curiosity every so often, maybe, but that's it. So yeah, sometimes these guys become legitimate, but it is rare. And it isn't really experience that separates them, either.

 

[JimEIV]

4 year NCAA players that played in the NHL this season...there are plenty of good ones and it's not remotely rare.


LAST NAME FIRST NAME NCAA TEAM NHL TEAM POS. NATIONALITY DRAFT YEARS IN COLLEGE ▾
Bieksa Kevin Bowling Green ANA D Canada 5th 4
Garbutt Ryan Brown ANA F Canada FA 4
Kossila Kalle St. Cloud State ANA F Finland FA 4
Cross Tommy Boston College BOS D US 2nd 4
Czarnik Austin Miami BOS F US FA 4
Grzelcyk Matt Boston University BOS D US 3rd 4
Kuraly Sean Miami BOS F US 5th 4
Liles John-Michael Michigan State BOS D US 5th 4
Carey Paul Boston College WSH F US 5th 4
Miller Kevan Vermont BOS D US FA 4
Moore Dominic Harvard BOS F Canada 3rd 4
O'Gara Rob Yale BOS D US 5th 4
Schaller Tim Providence BOS F US FA 4
Tanev Brandon Providence WPG F US FA 4
Burgdoerfer Erik Rensselaer BUF D US FA 4
Fedun Taylor Princeton BUF D Canada FA 4
Gionta Brian Boston College BUF F US 3rd 4
Malone Sean Harvard BUF F US 6th 4
Moulson Matt Cornell BUF F Canada 9th 4
Rodrigues Evan Boston University BUF F Canada FA 4
Brown Patrick Boston College CAR F US FA 4
Stempniak Lee Dartmouth CAR F US 5th 4
Tynan T.J. Notre Dame CBJ F US 3rd 4
Elliott Brian Wisconsin CGY G Canada 9th 4
Hathaway Garnet Brown CGY F US FA 4
Jankowski Mark Providence CGY F Canada 1st 4
Johnson Chad Alaska CGY G Canada 5th 4
Abbott Spencer Maine CHI F Canada FA 4
Labate Joe Wisconsin VAN F US 4th 4
Hayden John Yale CHI F US 3rd 4
Kero Tanner Michigan Tech CHI F US FA 4
Biega Alex Harvard VAN D Canada 5th 4
Bourque Rene Wisconsin COL F Canada FA 4
Johns Stephen Notre Dame DAL D US 2nd 4
Smith Ben Boston College TOR, COL F US 6th 4
Hyman Zach Michigan TOR F Canada 5th 4
Hunwick Matt Michigan TOR D US 7th 4
McKenzie Curtis Miami DAL F US 6th 4
McElhinney Curtis Colorado College TOR, CBJ G Canada 6th 4
Pateryn Greg Michigan DAL, MTL D US 5th 4
Boyle Brian Boston College TOR, TB F US 1st 4
Witkowski Luke Western Michigan TB D US 6th 4
Glendening Luke Michigan DET F US FA 4
Peca Matthew Quinnipiac TB F Canada 7th 4
Killorn Alex Harvard TB F Canada 3rd 4
Lorito Matt Brown DET F US FA 4
Condra Erik Notre Dame TB F US 7th 4
Conacher Cory Canisius TB F Canada FA 4
Russo Robbie Notre Dame DET D US 4th 4
Street Ben Wisconsin DET F Canada FA 4
Caggiula Drake North Dakota EDM F Canada FA 4
Vesey Jimmy Harvard NYR F US 3rd 4
Gryba Eric Boston University EDM D Canada 3rd 4
Hendricks Matt St. Cloud State EDM F US 5th 4
Megan Wade Boston University STL F US 5th 4
Hutton Carter UMass Lowell STL G Canada FA 4
Hunt Brad Bemidji State STL D Canada FA 4
Simpson Dillon North Dakota EDM D Canada 4th 4
Rau Kyle Minnesota FLA F US 3rd 4
Agostino Kenny Yale STL F US 5th 4
Thompson Paul New Hampshire FLA F US FA 4
O'Regan Danny Boston University SJ F US 5th 4
Dowd Nic St. Cloud State LA F US 7th 4
Gilbert Tom Wisconsin LA D US 4th 4
Gravel Kevin SCSU LA D US 5th 4
Braun Justin Massachusetts SJ D US 7th 4
Cannone Pat Miami MIN F US FA 4
Prosser Nate Colorado College MIN D US FA 4
Sheary Conor Massachusetts PIT F US FA 4
Carr Daniel Union MTL F Canada FA 4
Rust Bryan Notre Dame PIT F US 3rd 4
Farnham Bobby Brown MTL F US FA 4
Rowney Carter North Dakota PIT F Canada FA 4
Porter Kevin Michigan PIT F US 4th 4
Oleksy Steve Lake Superior State PIT D US FA 4
Kunitz Chris Ferris State PIT F Canada FA 4
Flynn Brian Maine MTL F US FA 4
Hanley Joel Massachusetts MTL D Canada FA 4
Hagelin Carl Michigan PIT F Sweden 6th 4
Redmond Zach Ferris State MTL D US 7th 4
Coleman Blake Miami NJ F US 3rd 4
Greene Andy Miami NJ D US FA 4
Helgeson Seth Minnesota NJ D US 4th 4
Kapla Michael UMass Lowell NJ D US FA 4
Lappin Nick Brown NJ F US FA 4
Vecchione Mike Union PHI F US FA 4
VandeVelde Chris North Dakota PHI F US 4th 4
Read Matt Bemidji State PHI F Canada FA 4
McDonald Colin Providence PHI F US 2nd 4
Lovejoy Ben Dartmouth NJ D US FA 4
Pietila Blake Michigan Tech NJ F US 5th 4
Wideman Chris Miami OTT D US 4th 4
Rooney Kevin Providence NJ F US FA 4
Stollery Karl Merrimack NJ D Canada FA 4
Zolnierczyk Harry Brown NSH F Canada FA 4
Gionta Stephen Boston College NYI F US FA 4
Jones Connor Quinnipiac NYI F Canada FA 4
Hammond Andrew Bowling Green OTT G Canada FA 4
Glass Tanner Dartmouth NYR F Canada 9th 4
Condon Mike Princeton OTT, PIT G US FA 4
Hayes Kevin Boston College NYR F US 1st 4
Kampfer Steven Michigan NYR, FLA D US 4th 4
Nieves Cristoval Michigan NYR F US 2nd 4
Fayne Mark Providence EDM D US 5th 4

 

[JimEIV]

Sheary and Rust just won a cup from the list.

.

 

[Triumph]

Once again, you goalpost shifted on me - you were the guy who talked about 24, 25, and 26 year old rookies, and I just showed that those guys are normally a big zero, then you tell me I'm making the wrong point. I fully agree that guys who come out of the NCAA at 21 or 22 make the NHL quite frequently, but most players of consequence come out of college before their senior year. Some don't, and we can identify who those players are who are more likely to make the NHL, but here's the critical part - they identify themselves in their first pro season almost always. If you're not good in that first year, you're not likely to be any good.

Still, most of these players are of no consequence. You are just proving my point here. I'll say it for the 30th time - I do not care about 4th line players or fill-in players at the NHL level. The Devils had 9 players who were 4 year NCAA players and the only guys who were important were Greene and Lovejoy and the only one who should've been important was Greene. The rest were effectively filler, and that's what most of this list is. Making the NHL is hard and I'm not diminishing their accomplishment, but having a considerable effect on NHL games is harder, and most of this list did not manage that.

 

[devilsblood]

It's a long list.

But it is filled with guys who played a handful of games.

What's average in terms of games played & average points?

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

Blackwood played in the pros and got better as the season went along. That's why he didn't 'get whacked'.

Mueller at 11 seems bad to me as well but comparing him to Seth Helgeson is nuts. Helgeson was still in college when he was Mueller's age right now.

Not to mention that Helgeson's absolute ceiling on draft day was the next Deryk Engelland. I don't think Mueller's ceiling is much higher at this point, but it's not like we can be sure anyone ranked after him will ever play an NHL game. Theres a lot of skill and potential ranked behind him but i don't think he's wildly out of position.

 

[Triumph]

It's a long list.

But it is filled with guys who played a handful of games.

What's average in terms of games played & average points?

If you want to compile that, feel free. I'm not entirely sure what you are asking - what the NHL average is for any player, again, you can compile that yourself - or the average on this list Aethon compiled, but I do know that comparing the average on this list to the NHL average is not going to look very good - the highest scorer on this list, by my reckoning, is Conor Sheary who was 82nd in scoring last year.

 

[devilsblood]

If you want to compile that, feel free. I'm not entirely sure what you are asking - what the NHL average is for any player, again, you can compile that yourself - or the average on this list Aethon compiled, but I do know that comparing the average on this list to the NHL average is not going to look very good - the highest scorer on this list, by my reckoning, is Conor Sheary who was 82nd in scoring last year.

Nah that seems like some serious work.

But given I see names like Lorito, Stollery Rooney, and Kapla, guys who played single digits in the NHL, and also the 2 Blakes, and Lappin, guys who played double digits but produced very little offensively I'll put the burden of proof back into Jim's court and say that the list is filled with barely NHLr's. While as you note, pretty lacking in terms of big time NHL talent.

 

[JimEIV]

Every player you named is less than two years out of college(edit: except for Stollery)...you are expecting full fledged NHL careers out of guys who were in the NCAA last year or the year before? Hell, in Kapla's case, this is still his NCAA senior year.

The point is that they are getting NHL opportunities.

Lacking in serious NHL talent?

Bieksa, Kunitz, Sheary, Kevin Hayes, Andy Greene, Hagelin, B. Gionta, JM Liles, Dominic Moore, Moulson, Vesey, Matt Read, Killorn, Widemen....are you kidding?

You are talking about a population of only around 300 NCAA players in the league... this conversation has narrowed that discussion to "only 4 year players" which is about​ 200 NHL players...

1. ~200 of ~1000 NHL players total is not insignificant.

2. The question should be: What is the level of the 200+ NCAA 4 year players compared to the other 800 NHL players.

We know that those 4 year players get opportunities a lot quicker than traditional prospects. And I would imagine that their success rate is pretty much inline with other prospects. I would also think that there is a big difference between forwards, defensemen and goaltenders...there are a lot of 4 year NCAA Dmen and goaltenders in the league and I wouldn't be at all surprised if they had a better success rate than traditional prospects... especially where goalies are concerned.

 

[Triumph]

Every player you named is less than two years out of college(edit: except for Stollery)...you are expecting full fledged NHL careers out of guys who were in the NCAA last year or the year before? Hell, in Kapla's case, this is still his NCAA senior year.

The point is that they are getting NHL opportunities.

Lacking in serious NHL talent?

Bieksa, Kunitz, Sheary, Kevin Hayes, Andy Greene, Hagelin, B. Gionta, JM Liles, Dominic Moore, Moulson, Vesey, Matt Read, Killorn, Widemen....are you kidding?

No, that's not a very good list of players when you include the rest of the set and stack it up against everyone else. Also note that a lot of your list are old - Kunitz, Bieksa, Gionta, Greene, and Moore are 35+ this year - and may not have stayed 4 years in college under the current conditions. But if you got to take all the best players off this list you made, AND you got to take their primes, so no one's well over 30 - I'm not even sure you have the best team in the NHL. Moulson, Gionta, Kunitz, and Sheary have made pretty good careers out of having great centers - Gionta's probably the best player there, and the other guys are pretty good, but without a star center to dish them the puck, they're not going to be anywhere near as good.

You are talking about a population of only around 300 NCAA players in the league... this conversation has narrowed that discussion to "only 4 year players" which is about​ 200 NHL players...

Did you stop doing your list at 97? That's how many players I counted on the list you spat at me, and I assumed that was a complete list.

2. The question should be: What is the level of the 200+ NCAA 4 year players compared to the other 800 NHL players.

It sucks, relatively. Sheary was the 82nd highest scorer in the NHL. So that means the top 81 go into Box B, the non-4 year collegians. Good luck on getting box A to stack up to box B.

We know that those 4 year players get opportunities a lot quicker than traditional prospects. And I would imagine that their success rate is pretty much inline with other prospects. I would also think that there is a big difference between forwards, defensemen and goaltenders...there are a lot of 4 year NCAA Dmen and goaltenders in the league and I wouldn't be at all surprised if they had a better success rate than traditional prospects... especially where goalies are concerned.

Now you're flailing wildly and accidentally making the point I was making upthread. Yes, they get opportunities a lot quicker than traditional prospects because traditional prospects don't start in the AHL at age 22. That's why age means a lot more than experience - these college players go into the AHL at age 22, which is 2 years older than players coming from junior, and they tend to do better than that group on the whole, all else being equal.

Also didn't you just list off the 4 year NCAA D in your project here, and isn't it a pretty weak list? Like, it has Andy Greene, JM Liles, Tom Gilbert, and Kevin Bieksa and those are the 4 best players on it. There's no way it has a better success rate than anything. Again, I don't care about Seth Helgesons. Great, Helgeson played 40 games in the NHL.

I can't speak to goalies, we haven't talked about them at all. I suspect something similar is going on with them. It rarely makes sense for NHL-ready players to stay in college for the 4th year.