2017 Bust Candidates

Zorf

Apparently I'm entitled?
Jan 4, 2008
4,946
1,566
We have the sleeper thread, which I love, but I was wondering if you guys had any busts that you want to talk about?


For me, and I'm not done my draft prep yet (I started late this year), I have the following guys:




Julio Jones (mild bust concern). Yeah, I went there. I think he's becoming an injury concern, I think Matt Ryan won't repeat his performance from last year, I think the team will focus a bit more on the run game, and other than Julio's absolutely INSANE game last year, he was trending as a WR2 for most of last season.
Julio will be a 1st round pick in pretty much every draft, but I'd probably go with someone else if he came to me in the 1st round.


Kelvin Benjamin (mild to mid bust concern). The guy looks FAT! Also, he gets hurt a lot. Also, with the draft of McCaffrey, I wonder if the Panthers are going to try to make Cam a pocket QB? Cam actually doesn't have the best accuracy either, and reports from Panthers camp is that Funchess is looking like the best WR on the field.


Spencer Ware. The guy is flat out going to lose his RB1 job. I have almost no doubt in my mind at this point. I'm not even going to bother drafting him unless he drops like an absolute rock.


Denver QBs, and by extension, Denver WRs. I just don't know. Hard to trust the QBs, and unless a WR is a superhero, they are only as good as the guy passing them the ball. I might just avoid Denver players this year.


Latavius Murray - I think I read that he just got hurt, and I also think that he'll lose the RB1 spot to Cook before the season is out. the Minny O-Line isn't the greatest either.


Cooks + Edelman + Gronk. So many mouths to feed...but at the same time, if anyone can feed that many mouths, it is Brady. I'm not too concerned about these guys, but they are more just something to consider when drafting. Gronk's concern is obviously just due to injuries. When healthy he's going to be fed the ball, but that also means that when he is healthy, Edelman and Cooks will see less of the ball.
 

rangerssharks414

Registered User
Mar 9, 2010
32,311
1,648
Long Island, NY
I did a couple of one year drafts over the weekend. Here is who I avoided:

Leonard Fournette: Toe injury is back... questionable o-line and no semblance of a QB

Allen Robinson: Not even garbage time will save him.

Spencer Ware: I think Kareem Hunt takes over as the starter early in the year.

LeGarette Blount: I bet he gets cut.

Frank Gore: Too old.

Mike Gillislee: Who knows which Patriots running back will show up every week

Adrian Peterson: Too many mouths to feed for a team that throws so much

Paul Perkins: I don't think the Giants trust him... terrible o-line as well

Eddie Lacy: I think they like Rawls the most
 

Zorf

Apparently I'm entitled?
Jan 4, 2008
4,946
1,566
Oh, I forgot Carlos Hyde. For a guy with an ADP in the 3rd round, he's just prime bust material for me. By that, I mean that I do not think he will reach the value expected of a 3rd round pick.

He's coming back from a serious knee injury that happened late last season, so you know he's not 100% yet.

Reports from camp so far are that he's been just awful. Not attacking the line with speed and power. Not reading the offense and defence well.

There are now starting to be rumblings that the 49ers might just cut him all together, but I think that's a little far fetched at this point. Still, it's just nothing but red flags around the guy right now.
 

Bonzai12

Registered User
Nov 2, 2007
14,140
1,717
Denver CO
Pretty much agree with everything here already.

I'm split on the NE backs. I think you got Mike G running at the goal line and all the other rbs on other downs.

What happened to the good ole days of fantasy football when there wasn't any of this committee at every position BS?
 

Evincar

I have found the way
Aug 10, 2012
6,462
778
Leonard Fournette: Toe injury is back... questionable o-line and no semblance of a QB

Personally I dont think he's even that good to begin with. I wouldnt be surprised if he turns into a TRich/Gurley like bust.

Stay away in redraft and in keeper leagues I rather have McCaffrey.
 

Zorf

Apparently I'm entitled?
Jan 4, 2008
4,946
1,566
Both Sanders and Thomas have incredibly high floors.

My opinion of them is that their floors are going to be lower due to the not-so-great QBs on the Broncos. I think there are better WRs to be had, but both of these guys have fallen to later rounds, so for where they will be drafted, they could have good upside, but I think both of them should be considered boom-bust options at this point.


edit: SO they are 3rd and 4th round players. I was wrong with that bit
 
Last edited:

stempniaksen

Registered User
Oct 12, 2008
11,004
4,262
I go no where near:
Michael Thomas
Jay Ajayi
Gronk
Bronco WR

Bit of an echo chamber in here, but I have no idea why you're low on Michael Thomas. With Cooks leaving there's targets up for grabs and Ted Ginn sure as heck isn't gonna get all of them. He also plays with one of the best/most accurate QB's in the league in Brees, which is never a bad spot to be in.

Gotta agree with everyone else you put down though.
 

Evincar

I have found the way
Aug 10, 2012
6,462
778
My opinion of them is that their floors are going to be lower due to the not-so-great QBs on the Broncos. I think there are better WRs to be had, but both of these guys have fallen to later rounds, so for where they will be drafted, they could have good upside, but I think both of them should be considered boom-bust options at this point.


edit: SO they are 3rd and 4th round players. I was wrong with that bit

Im not going to try and pump up Siemian as a good QB but he's definitely not Osweiler where he cant get the ball to his stud WR. Siemian was decent last season considering he was a rookie and he hurt his shoulder early in the season. Plus Thomas and Sanders still produced in 2015 when washed up Peyton and Osweiler were the starting QBs.

The best thing about Thomas and Sanders is they are the Broncos offense, they will hog all the targets because there is no stud RB or TE to take targets/touches away from them.
 

Chairman Mallard

Registered User
Mar 9, 2007
16,785
101
Santa Rosa
Ajayi has the talent to have a huge year, but all his production last year came in a handful of games. He has to be more consistent to have that high end trust as a RB.

Someone in my dynasty league moved L. Bell to acquire a package that included Ajayi, but it also included a pick that became J. Mixon, and he already had a high pick and grabbed D. Cook.

He also is the guy in my league that always weasels himself into trades, but luckily he has yet to win a title in the 3 years of the league.
 

m9

m9
Sponsor
Jan 23, 2010
25,107
15,229
I go no where near:
Michael Thomas
Jay Ajayi
Gronk
Bronco WR

Interesting. These two hold up exceptionally well if you look at the underlying numbers. Obviously a very short track record though.

Does he have a nagging injury already? You'd figure without Cooks around he'd benefit from more targets, especially with a fantasy reliable QB in Brees

Bit of an echo chamber in here, but I have no idea why you're low on Michael Thomas. With Cooks leaving there's targets up for grabs and Ted Ginn sure as heck isn't gonna get all of them. He also plays with one of the best/most accurate QB's in the league in Brees, which is never a bad spot to be in.

Gotta agree with everyone else you put down though.

I don't think anyone is saying Thomas sucks, it would just be that he isn't worth the draft capital to draft him at WR7 or wherever he's going. I actually agree - I think if you are drafting him at WR7 you are drafting him at his peak and you can't really get any extra value out of the selection. He probably finishes between WR8 and WR20, where there are a handful of guys that have top five WR potential.
 

Mr Misunderstood

Loser Point User
Apr 11, 2016
9,869
10,898
Charlotte, NC
I don't think anyone is saying Thomas sucks, it would just be that he isn't worth the draft capital to draft him at WR7 or wherever he's going. I actually agree - I think if you are drafting him at WR7 you are drafting him at his peak and you can't really get any extra value out of the selection. He probably finishes between WR8 and WR20, where there are a handful of guys that have top five WR potential.

Fair assessment, but he specifically said "no where near" not "staying away from them because of their current draft position." Probably a case of misinterpretation on our part.

I also agree that WR7 is too high for a player who broke out his rookie year, especially on a team that is not expected to be great. Although a Saint offensive player is typically a safe bet with Brees at the helm.
 

Bonzai12

Registered User
Nov 2, 2007
14,140
1,717
Denver CO
I admittedly have a tough time with Thomas as well.

Taking a WR that high and just assuming he'll blossom into a #1 is a little difficult for me to swallow

I think if you want value you take Snead or Fleener on the Saints
 

dma0034

Registered User
Jun 27, 2011
4,989
187
Buffalo, NY
So let me first say if they fall obviously you take them. I mean I'll be the first one to pick up Thomas or Ajayi in the 3rd round. Early 2nd where they are projected? Nah

So reasons:
Thomas: I fully expect Thomas to get his fair share of targets. I also see him having a sophomore slump because he is "the guy". He'll get the top CB every week and I expect Brees to spread it around... I actually look at Fleener as being a sleeper pick this year. I also expect Peterson and Ingram to catch a lot of balls this year
Ajayi: 3 games, half of his production and I'll tell you right now I don't think he puts up 200 yards against the Bills in both games this year, plus you can never rely on that Dolphins OLine to stay healthy
Gronk: health... I mean if you tell me he plays all 16 games I draft him in the top 10, not being able to trust he'll be there when you really need him kills his value imo
Broncos: clearly obvious they are going to be a run first team but I don't see the TDs that put them in the top 4 rounds. I think there are nice options at WR that you can draft later.
 

Zorf

Apparently I'm entitled?
Jan 4, 2008
4,946
1,566
Bit of quiet injury news about Ajayi, He's going to play through it, but apparently the cartilage in one if his knees is just toast, so there is bone-on-bone rubbing, which is incredibly painful. No doubt he'll be given loads of pain killers to battle through it, but I thought it was something to take note of.
 

rangerssharks414

Registered User
Mar 9, 2010
32,311
1,648
Long Island, NY
Bit of quiet injury news about Ajayi, He's going to play through it, but apparently the cartilage in one if his knees is just toast, so there is bone-on-bone rubbing, which is incredibly painful. No doubt he'll be given loads of pain killers to battle through it, but I thought it was something to take note of.

His knee was probably the reason why he fell so much in his draft year. It was a huge red flag.
 

Bonzai12

Registered User
Nov 2, 2007
14,140
1,717
Denver CO
I've heard rumblings as well that Jordan Reed's injury is pretty serious. I'll try to dig up details later but I avoided him in my draft. He's got some medical issue that it's going to be just a "play through it" type scenario this year.
 

InjuredChoker

Registered User
Dec 25, 2011
31,402
345
LTIR or golf course
I've heard rumblings as well that Jordan Reed's injury is pretty serious. I'll try to dig up details later but I avoided him in my draft. He's got some medical issue that it's going to be just a "play through it" type scenario this year.

he's played through injuries before so it wouldn't be anything new. really talented but always banged up.
 

m9

m9
Sponsor
Jan 23, 2010
25,107
15,229
Bit of quiet injury news about Ajayi, He's going to play through it, but apparently the cartilage in one if his knees is just toast, so there is bone-on-bone rubbing, which is incredibly painful. No doubt he'll be given loads of pain killers to battle through it, but I thought it was something to take note of.

His knee was probably the reason why he fell so much in his draft year. It was a huge red flag.

Yeah, this was a major story about Ajayi before he was drafted and was the reason he fell to where he did.
 

Zorf

Apparently I'm entitled?
Jan 4, 2008
4,946
1,566
I've heard rumblings as well that Jordan Reed's injury is pretty serious. I'll try to dig up details later but I avoided him in my draft. He's got some medical issue that it's going to be just a "play through it" type scenario this year.

He has a fractured foot and he's had specially designed shoes and insoles to wear, but foot injuries can be brutal and can end a season in a hurry. Just look at Sammy Watson last year. I'm not drafting Reed at all
 

Zorf

Apparently I'm entitled?
Jan 4, 2008
4,946
1,566
Anyone also think that DeAndre Hopkins is a bust for where he's being drafted? He's more of a WR3 at this point and he's being drafted in the 2nd and 3rd round.

He should get a bunch of targets, but his QB is complete crap, so Hopkins will only be as good as the passes being thrown his way.
 

Bonzai12

Registered User
Nov 2, 2007
14,140
1,717
Denver CO
He has a fractured foot and he's had specially designed shoes and insoles to wear, but foot injuries can be brutal and can end a season in a hurry. Just look at Sammy Watson last year. I'm not drafting Reed at all

Exactly what I was getting at.

It sounds like a sesamoid bone issue which could put him out for a long time. Team is doing everything it can to make him able to play but if they can't make it comfortable then he's going to require surgery.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->