NHL 2017-2018 Standings Watch

[LouJersey]

The Atlantic division isn't great teams 3-8. There is a chance to finish 3rd and be locked in, and also a WC where you can pick up points vs inferior division teams.

 

[Fenway]

 

[Fenway]

The so called Thanksgiving benchmark - with the games in hand our boys are right where they need to be

 

[talkinaway]

Kinda where I thought we'd be:



Neither firmly in or out of the playoffs...even the "Thanksgiving metric" could go either way. If you go by PTS%, we're 3A to Ottawa's 3B in the Atlantic, placing us in the playoffs, but barely. However, we still have at least 2 games to make up on almost everyone else who counts...that means more B2Bs and 3-in-4s in the future. (Of course, we fortunately have found a good weapon for B2Bs...a backup goalie who's suddenly become more than merely competent.)

If you go just by points, Detroit leapfrogs us and Ottawa for the third slot, and PIT and WSH take the wildcards. While PIT and WSH have objectively better records than we do, I'd probably take our record over Detroit's....I think we should get at least 1 point out of the next 2 games.

Either way, if we make the playoffs or we don't, we can find some justification in today's standings for how we should have seen it coming.

 

[Caper Bruins fan]

The so called Thanksgiving benchmark - with the games in hand our boys are right where they need to be

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Amazing what a successful week can do . Most of us were feeling pretty bleak after that Anaheim loss. I think Dobby is going to push Rask to be better this year and when the Bruins get healthy , there will be less pressure on the kids to perform consistently well all the time . The Bruins should make the playoffs.

 

[Fenway]

Kinda where I thought we'd be:



Neither firmly in or out of the playoffs...even the "Thanksgiving metric" could go either way. If you go by PTS%, we're 3A to Ottawa's 3B in the Atlantic, placing us in the playoffs, but barely. However, we still have at least 2 games to make up on almost everyone else who counts...that means more B2Bs and 3-in-4s in the future. (Of course, we fortunately have found a good weapon for B2Bs...a backup goalie who's suddenly become more than merely competent.)

If you go just by points, Detroit leapfrogs us and Ottawa for the third slot, and PIT and WSH take the wildcards. While PIT and WSH have objectively better records than we do, I'd probably take our record over Detroit's....I think we should get at least 1 point out of the next 2 games.

Either way, if we make the playoffs or we don't, we can find some justification in today's standings for how we should have seen it coming.

Given that the B's were a M*A*S*H unit for much of the past six weeks we can't complain at all. We may look back that California saved them this year.

 

[Fenway]

One thing is starting to become apparent. The Wild Card will be hard for the 4th Atlantic team to crack.

Schedule leading up to Renemas is manageable - only 2 back to backs. I think 16 points in those 12 games is realistic.

 

[Fenway]

From Down Goes Brown

So the Atlantic Division might be bad this year.
Not every team — they have quite possibly the league’s very best in the Lightning, and so far the Leafs are hanging with them. But after that it’s a bit of a mess.

That’s not great news if you’re a Metro playoff contender, since there’s an outside chance that there could be six teams there that are better than the Atlantic’s third best. If that were to happen, the East wouldn’t send its eight top teams to the playoffs, and we’d been in for another round of complaining about the league’s playoff format.

But it’s very good news if you’re one of the many struggling Atlantic teams, because nobody’s out of this thing yet. The Senators are still hanging around, despite recently losing seven straight. The Bruins are right there and holding games in hand, despite all their injuries. The Panthers still have a shot. The Sabres, uh, have nice uniforms.

 

[Fenway]

It means nothing but as of this morning the Bruins have a 91.6% shot at the playoffs

Money Puck likes the B's as well - but not Toronto

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck Analytics Based Playoff & Cup Odds

The shocker is Vegas

 

[Blowfish]

It means nothing but as of this morning the Bruins have a 91.6% shot at the playoffs

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Money Puck likes the B's as well - but not Toronto

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck Analytics Based Playoff & Cup Odds

The shocker is Vegas

Thanks for sharing...I can see Vegas slipping and Penguins, Flyers, and Hawks rising. Hoping Leafs fall lol.

 

[Agent86]

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck Analytics Based Playoff & Cup Odds

Interesting. Two Takeaways:

1) With the Tampa/Boston odds so high to capture 1/2 in the Atlantic I was surprised that Montreal was actually that close to closing the gap on the Leafs. I despise both teams but kinda hope the Habs make it so they will cling to the hope that they are only one or two pieces away from being a contender, not blow it up and stay on the path to mediocrity. Rappelez-vous '93

2) Hey we still have a .4% chance of winning the draft lottery! Since our monkey can't make a trade and it's easy to draft, it's all good if we fall off the cliff. 你2011年的斯坦利杯冠军 (A little shout out to our friends at O.R.G.)

 

[BruinLVGA]

Bruins as of tonight at a 100 points pace (609 points percentage), Leafs 98 (597).
The boys have done well so far.

 

[talkinaway]

The other interesting tidbit from that site is that the break-even point for the Bruins making the playoffs is around 88.5 points. If we get more than that, we have more than a 50% chance of playoffs - less than that, and it's under 50%. That seems low - but perhaps not surprisingly low, as our main way out of the playoffs involves the Habs, who are on pace for 82 points and are 5 points and 2 games behind us.

To have an over 90% chance of playoffs, we "only" need about 93 points. For reference, we finished 2014-5 with 96 points, becoming the Bruins team with the highest raw point total not to qualify for playoffs.

One other thing: looking around us in the Atlantic, Tampa seems locked on 1st, and there are 4 teams that could arguably be fighting for 4th in the Atlantic, but are pretty far behind the Bruins at this point. So...at this point, there's a strong possibility that our first round will be either BOS@TOR or TOR@BOS, with a fairly good shot at both.

That, of course, is assuming a whole bunch of players don't get sick over the holiday. *checks Twitter* Crap.

 

[Fenway]

Playoff math is what it is - The Bruins now could play pure .500 hockey the rest of the way and still have 92 points. More importantly I can't see any team behind them winning 10 in a row.

An Ottawa media person said to me after the game he thinks the Bruins can steal the East in the playoffs.

The major key to this is the Bruins are playing very good hockey at home this year.

 

[Fenway]

 

[BruinsFanMike82]

	Maximum potential points	Current ROW	Total remaining games	Home games	Away games	Sets of back-to-backs	Games remaining against teams currently in playoff position
Bruins	126	34	22	11	11	3	10
Lightning	127	39	20	14	6	4	9
Maple Leafs	119	33	18	9	9	3	8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[BruinsFanMike82]

	Maximum potential points	Current ROW	Total remaining games	Home games	Away games	Sets of back-to-backs	Remaining opponents' winning %
Bruins	126	34	22	11	11	3	.510
Lightning	127	39	20	14	6	4	.503
Maple Leafs	119	33	18	9	9	3	.476

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Changed the final column to something a little more specific. Of these 3 teams, the Maple Leafs have the easiest remaining schedule. The Bruins and Lightning have fairly similar schedules, but the Lightning have a lot of home games.

 

[talkinaway]

One thing I don't like about our schedule is that we're not only compressed...we get one less day of postseason recovery thanks to the cancelled Florida game. Honestly, it'd be nice if the NHL had followed MLB's model and scheduled the game as a "potential" game, to be played if and only if there are playoff ramifications. The MLB did that either last year or the year before for the Cleveland Indians, and you can see in the standings that they played 161 games instead of 162.

Of course, because of money, they're playing the last game, which hopefully won't count. I don't care a whole lot about home ice advantage, and the fact is we're going to have to power through both Toronto and Tampa, in some order. With the recent acquisition of McDonagh, that's going to be even tough.

 

[BruinsFanMike82]

Update through 2/27:

	Maximum potential points	Current ROW	Total remaining games	Home games	Away games	Sets of back-to-backs	Remaining opponents' winning %
Bruins	126	35	21	10	11	3	.515
Lightning	127	39	19	13	6	4	.473
Maple Leafs	117	33	16	9	7	2	.465

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[BruinsFanMike82]

Update through 3/3:

	Maximum potential points	Current ROW	Total remaining games	Home games	Away games	Sets of back-to-backs	Remaining opponents' winning %
Bruins	126	37	19	8	11	3	.521
Lightning	126	40	16	11	5	3	.480
Maple Leafs	115	33	15	9	6	2	.460

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Fenway]

I can't believe with 4 weeks to go the Bruins are at 92 points

Even if we got no points in our games in hand the B's would still be ahead of Toronto by 7 points.

3 more games with Tampa Bay - so the #1 spot is reachable.

 

[BruinsFanMike82]

Update through 3/11:

	Maximum potential points	Current ROW	Total remaining games	Home games	Away games	Sets of back-to-backs	Remaining opponents' winning %
Bruins	124	40	15	5	10	2	.549
Lightning	126	42	13	8	5	3	.490
Maple Leafs	113	34	13	8	5	2	.463

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

It's looking more and more likely that the Bruins aren't going to catch the Lightning. The Bruins definitely have the toughest remaining schedule of these three teams. 10 road games and a combined opponents' winning percentage of .549. Very, very tough.

 

[missingchicklet]

Update through 3/11:

	Maximum potential points	Current ROW	Total remaining games	Home games	Away games	Sets of back-to-backs	Remaining opponents' winning %
Bruins	124	40	15	5	10	2	.549
Lightning	126	42	13	8	5	3	.490
Maple Leafs	113	34	13	8	5	2	.463

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

It's looking more and more likely that the Bruins aren't going to catch the Lightning. The Bruins definitely have the toughest remaining schedule of these three teams. 10 road games and a combined opponents' winning percentage of .549. Very, very tough.

Tough indeed, but don't forget the Bs tend to bring it harder against good teams and play down to the level of crap teams. Their road record isn't too shabby. TB has to come back down to earth at some point and the Bs will be getting their studs back. I still think the Bs have a decent shot catching TB.

 

[BruinsFanMike82]

Update through 3/17:

	Maximum potential points	Current ROW	Total remaining games	Home games	Away games	Sets of back-to-backs	Remaining opponents' winning %
Bruins	122	42	12	5	7	2	.542
Lightning	122	42	11	6	5	3	.494
Maple Leafs	113	36	10	6	4	1	.475

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[BruinsFanMike82]

Update through 3/22:

	Maximum potential points	Current ROW	Total remaining games	Home games	Away games	Sets of back-to-backs	Remaining opponents' winning %
Bruins	120	42	10	5	7	2	.546
Lightning	122	45	8	4	4	2	.513
Maple Leafs	111	37	8	6	2	1	.423

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Toronto has a really easy remaining schedule. The Bruins goal should be to get at least 12 of the remaining 20 points available.