2017-2018 Minnesota Wild General Discussion III

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Wild11MN

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We actually do know with 100% certainty that Vegas was going to take only one of Dumba, Scandella, Zucker, or Staal. A loss in one regard is a gain in another - where that extra cap space could be used to re-sign Granlund and Nino. That has been clear for a year.

But for some reason Fletcher couldn't just accept that as a fact of life. He twisted and turned to avoid shedding cap in the expansion draft, which just meant that was a problem he was then going to have to solve immediately after. And every team in the league knew it. Which is why we got 7.5 million in 4th liners for Scandella and Pominville.
Dumba's cap hit this year is less than Haula's.
 

Saga of the Elk

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We actually do know with 100% certainty that Vegas was going to take only one of Dumba, Scandella, Zucker, or Staal. A loss in one regard is a gain in another - where that extra cap space could be used to re-sign Granlund and Nino. That has been clear for a year.

But for some reason Fletcher couldn't just accept that as a fact of life. He twisted and turned to avoid shedding cap in the expansion draft, which just meant that was a problem he was then going to have to solve immediately after. And every team in the league knew it. Which is why we got 7.5 million in 4th liners for Scandella and Pominville.

Zucker was protected though. Who knows what might have played out but Vegas was probably very happy to get Erik Haula. They took 13 defensemen and needed a guy like him: young, fast, defensively-sound, offensively-capable, and able to be signed to an inexpensive (less than Marcus Foligno) salary. To have a player like Tuch thrown into the deal was larceny. At least Anaheim got rid of a cap headache in Stoner for the price of Theodore. We'll never know how negotiations went but that was a clear loss from day one, as was the necessary cap shedding in the Pominville/Scandella deal. I do believe Dumba would have been the smart selection, but again we don't know if there was a real market for him (or is now).

In all this analysis, it's worth remembering that basically the same scouts are here as were here in Riseborough's day. The same guys that valued Thelen, Gillies, Cuma, Sheppard valued Phillips, Bussieres, Gabriel, and so on. One Kaprizov, one Graovac, and some solid, if unspectacular, first-round picks in eight years does not adequately address the lost picks, the blown picks, and the missed opportunities to bolster the depth the best, if not the only, way possible in today's league: by drafting and developing good players.
 
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Bazeek

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Zucker was protected though. Who knows what might have played out but Vegas was probably very happy to get Erik Haula. They took 13 defensemen and needed a guy like him: young, fast, defensively-sound, offensively-capable, and able to be signed to an inexpensive (less than Marcus Foligno) salary. To have a player like Tuch thrown into the deal was larceny. At least Anaheim got rid of a cap headache in Stoner for the price of Theodore. We'll never know how negotiations went but that was a clear loss from day one, as was the necessary cap shedding in the Pominville/Scandella deal. I do believe Dumba would have been the smart selection, but again we don't know if there was a real market for him (or is now).

In all this analysis, it's worth remembering that basically the same scouts are here as were here in Riseborough's day. The same guys that valued Thelen, Gillies, Cuma, Sheppard valued Phillips, Bussieres, Gabriel, and so on. One Kaprizov, one Graovac, and some solid, if unspectacular, first-round picks in eight years does not adequately address the lost picks, the blown picks, and the missed opportunities to bolster the depth the best, if not the only, way possible in today's league: by drafting and developing good players.

The only reason this offseason went the way it did was because of the expansion draft. And the main reason that the expansion draft was so bad for the Wild specifically was because our talent was spread relatively evenly throughout the roster. "Deep" instead of "Top Heavy." Which isn't bad, but it's a function of not being able to draft and develop (or trade for) high-end talent. Suter, Nino, Granlund, Spurgeon etc. are all good to great players, but there's absolutely a tier above them that we haven't had on this team since Gaborik.

Not that the Wild's drafting has been terrible, but this whole offseason draws a thick, black line under "Scouting and Development" because we're not a team that's likely to draft in the top 5 any time soon. It can happen, but you can't build a strategy around "it's not impossible." Even scouting and development seems like a chaotic crapshoot, but it's something that teams can and do have success with.
 

Bazeek

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Safe to say we're somewhere around stage 10 or 11? Or maybe the last two games were stage 13, if that shutout streak was "the comeback".
I was actually going to say that one of the problems with being a Wild fan is that we never seem to hit a solid Stage 7, or if we do it comes well after the trade deadline.
 

Bazeek

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I'm going to steal the table of Olofsson's corsi numbers from Sporer's latest Athletic article:

OlofssonCF% w/o
TOI withTOI awayCF% withCF% w/o Olofsson
Kyle Quincey48:4019:2243.6257.1445.95
Mike Reilly46:2822:4039.6858.740.74
Jonas Brodin24:31103:3163.7943.544.02
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
This isn't exactly a huge dataset, but it hammers home the point that a chunk of this team's defensive problems could helped if we had a reliable bottom-pairing D to put out with Olofsson. The 4th line is still a problem too, but the Reilly/Quincey wheel is so squeaky that the team must have to play with earplugs in.
 

BigT2002

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I'm going to steal the table of Olofsson's corsi numbers from Sporer's latest Athletic article:

OlofssonCF% w/o
TOI withTOI awayCF% withCF% w/o Olofsson
Kyle Quincey48:4019:2243.6257.1445.95
Mike Reilly46:2822:4039.6858.740.74
Jonas Brodin24:31103:3163.7943.544.02
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
This isn't exactly a huge dataset, but it hammers home the point that a chunk of this team's defensive problems could helped if we had a reliable bottom-pairing D to put out with Olofsson. The 4th line is still a problem too, but the Reilly/Quincey wheel is so squeaky that the team must have to play with earplugs in.

I would have still championed Folin for that spot if money was going to be the issue. Even with the bump from the buyout for Vanek gone, this team is still going to be hurting next year for sure.
 

57special

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Brodin has regressed offensively. I believe it is partly because he has to spend so much time covering up for others, but I also think that SS encouraged and challenged him to contribute more offense. Don't know what is going on this year...seems to be more of a siege mentality.

I would like to see more of Olofsson/Brodin, with Brodin on the left. Dumba can be on the third pair, and on the PP. His inconsistency is ...consistent.
 

Bazeek

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If it's week-to-week this could be real bad unless Fletcher's looking at making a move besides claiming Prosser. Like Ian Cole or something. The defensive pairings from practice today were not encouraging.

Suter-Dumba
Brodin-Olofsson
Reilly-Murphy

Maybe Olofsson and Dumba step up big, but that still leaves some combination of Reilly-Murphy-Prosser (and maybe Soucy or Grant?) on the bottom pairing.
 

Nharris31

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If it's week-to-week this could be real bad unless Fletcher's looking at making a move besides claiming Prosser. Like Ian Cole or something. The defensive pairings from practice today were not encouraging.

Suter-Dumba
Brodin-Olofsson
Reilly-Murphy

Maybe Olofsson and Dumba step up big, but that still leaves some combination of Reilly-Murphy-Prosser (and maybe Soucy or Grant?) on the bottom pairing.

Well if that defense skates like they can it’s very mobile. I like that a lot The forwards can’t outskate teams but the defense is very capable of doing it.
 

NonsenseElimination

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If it's week-to-week this could be real bad unless Fletcher's looking at making a move besides claiming Prosser. Like Ian Cole or something. The defensive pairings from practice today were not encouraging.

Suter-Dumba
Brodin-Olofsson
Reilly-Murphy

Maybe Olofsson and Dumba step up big, but that still leaves some combination of Reilly-Murphy-Prosser (and maybe Soucy or Grant?) on the bottom pairing.


Those D pairs are not acceptable if you want to win.
 

Bazeek

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Would rather them all be stay at home defensemen not being able to move the puck at all?
It's good that they can skate, but we're relying on 2 rookies, Prosser and an AHL'er to fill out half of our blueline. It might work, but it probably won't.

As a band-aid for a game or two I'm curious to see how it goes, but if it's a long term thing? That's a problem.
 

nt3005

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If somehow a trade were made, what could it potentially be?
Who would people be mad about trading, I only have 3 maybe 4 players I would not trade.
 

Saga of the Elk

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If somehow a trade were made, what could it potentially be?
Who would people be mad about trading, I only have 3 maybe 4 players I would not trade.

Joel Eriksson Ek, Luke Kunin, Nino Niederreiter, 2018 1st round pick, maybe Coyle, maybe Spurgeon. It would be a shame to trade Koivu. But I think you could move other guys and be ok. Contracts and other considerations make the realistic no-trade list much longer. These are desperate times for the GM, but this team can weather the storm and we're only at the quarter mark. I wouldn't really be upset if the rights to Kahkonen, Greenway, or Kaprizov moved either if none of those guys has a future in St. Paul.

It would be nice to get an inexpensive player who hasn't yet found a role for his organization: a player from the Nic Petan, Sonny Milano, Oliver Bjorkstrand tree. Michael Dal Colle or Ryan Pulock? Someone like Jake Virtanen? Maybe Buffalo deals us Hudson Fasching in exchange for someone better.

The Wild need some youth, they need some cap flexibility. Dumba should return a player with similar pedigree and upside if the decision is to cut bait. Brodin wouldn't get you a Taylor Hall but a lesser version would still help. After all, we don't know that the GM can afford Jason Zucker next season - he's playing himself into Nino's contract range.
 

BagHead

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If somehow a trade were made, what could it potentially be?
Who would people be mad about trading, I only have 3 maybe 4 players I would not trade.

I would not trade Granlund, Zucker, Coyle, Nino, or Spurgeon. Koivu, Parise, and Suter are not tradable due to their contracts. The rest are guys I would move, if the right offer came along, and if we were in the right circumstances (like the season is already down the drain). The problem with trading any of the defensemen during the season (if it's not already down the drain) is that our defense is already not going too well, so we'd better be getting a quality defender back. People are saying things like "Trade Dumba", but the thing is, he's actually been one of the best 5 defenders on the team. One of the best 4, if you consider Olofsson's a small sample size. Never-mind how streaky rookies are.

I think, as long as we're still in a position that we're not far out of the playoff race, the team largely is what it is. There's no cap to do anything with, and there's only one contract spot available. I think a full tank is highly unlikely, even if we do poorly. This team is too talented to lose enough for it, and you don't trade talent away just to ensure that you can... draft talent back. It makes no sense to do. This team is in a long term pickle, with the large contracts on the vets, specifically Parise, Ennis and Foligno. Also having so many complimentary top 6 players, without a true star is actually hurting our cap. Nino, Granlund, soon-to-be-Zucker, Koivu, etc. That's a lot of dollars in "almost star players".
 
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