League News: 2017-2018 General NHL Fan Talk - (News n' Scores n' Stuff)

[Sam Spade]

maybe there is no such thing in a literal sense, but CF is considered by almost all as an acceptable proxy

Yeah, I don't care what people think about the stat itself but I have done a ton of research on it as an indicator of success. I went back to 1999 at one point. Bottom line if you aren't a top possession team, using CF%, you aren't winning.

Outliers are there but there really aren't many, all winning teams are top ten, most are top five. 2016 playoffs I made actual bets on a bracket using CF%, only one team beat the trend, the Sharks, until they lost to the number two CF% team that year, the Pens.

This season in every main board thread I picked the higher seeded CF%, I may go 8 for 8.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

This New Jersey / Tampa Bay game is nutty.

Scrums at the end ... what does TB think they have to prove? Give up 2 empty-netters, you take the loss and fight back THE NEXT GAME. I'm not unhappy with this result.

 

[maacoshark]

CF% is pretty much the universal possession stat. Caps are 24th, only two playoff teams are lower, all three will be gone by the end of the week.

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Some people prefer xGF%, Caps are 25th in that one.

And where are they ranked in the playoffs?
I can't believe you guys with your stats. Especially this stat. If you really want to judge a team or a player watch them play.
If was a true time of possession stat I might buy it.

 

[maacoshark]

Yeah, I don't care what people think about the stat itself but I have done a ton of research on it as an indicator of success. I went back to 1999 at one point. Bottom line if you aren't a top possession team, using CF%, you aren't winning.

Outliers are there but there really aren't many, all winning teams are top ten, most are top five. 2016 playoffs I made actual bets on a bracket using CF%, only one team beat the trend, the Sharks, until they lost to the number two CF% team that year, the Pens.

This season in every main board thread I picked the higher seeded CF%, I may go 8 for 8.

And how are these teams possessions stats in the postseason? How are the Caps possession stats?
You are regular seasons stats in the playoffs. At least use playoff possession stats for the playoffs.

 

[Sam Spade]

And where are they ranked in the playoffs?
I can't believe you guys with your stats. Especially this stat. If you really want to judge a team or a player watch them play.
If was a true time of possession stat I might buy it.

Well it's been two/three games so I am assuming a bigger sample size is needed but here it is if you want it. Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

And of course the eye test is best, but if want to have an explanation of why a team that is seeded higher and is consequently "favored" in a series loses look at their possession numbers you usually have your answer.

Caps are below the Jackets and most NHL teams, in almost all the important advanced stats, high danger for, high danger against, shots for, shots against. Of course the measure of a teams luck stat, PDO, the Caps are third.

Caps were never gonna win a series this post season, unless they got lights out goaltending.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Well it's been two/three games so I am assuming a bigger sample size is needed but here it is if you want it. Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

And of course the eye test is best, but if want to have an explanation of why a team that is seeded higher and is consequently "favored" in a series loses look at their possession numbers you usually have your answer.

Caps are below the Jackets and most NHL teams, in almost all the important advanced stats, high danger for, high danger against, shots for, shots against. Of course the measure of a teams luck stat, PDO, the Caps are third.

Caps were never gonna win a series this post season, unless they got lights out goaltending.

We're blowing out CBJ in the so-called possession stats, how do you explain the fact that we're down 2-0 in the series when we put close to 60 shots on Bob last night? Our PDO is down to the low 90s, while CBJ is at 108. Can't you just see that Bob is playing out of his mind while Grubauer has been trash (especially in game 2)?

 

[Sam Spade]

We're blowing out CBJ in the so-called possession stats, how do you explain the fact that we're down 2-0 in the series when we put close to 60 shots on Bob last night? Our PDO is down to the low 90s, while CBJ is at 108. Can't you just see that Bob is playing out of his mind while Grubauer has been trash (especially in game 2)?

Of course. I said in the first post related to stats, the main outlier to advanced stats is a goalie standing on his head.

 

[Carlzner]

Kane has been a beast for SJ so far.

 

[Raikkonen]

All in all, Panarin's goal was superb.

And such videos are very nice.

 

[maacoshark]

We're blowing out CBJ in the so-called possession stats, how do you explain the fact that we're down 2-0 in the series when we put close to 60 shots on Bob last night? Our PDO is down to the low 90s, while CBJ is at 108. Can't you just see that Bob is playing out of his mind while Grubauer has been trash (especially in game 2)?

This was the point I was trying to make to Sam Spade. He kept going on with regular season possession. Yet the playoffs stats show us to be dominating Columbus. But here we are down 2-0. So his argument isnt really holding water.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

This was the point I was trying to make to Sam Spade. He kept going on with regular season possession. Yet the playoffs stats show us to be dominating Columbus. But here we are down 2-0. So his argument isnt really holding water.

My guess (not wanting to speak for him) is that Sam and others who are deep into this aspect would say 1) very small sample so these data do not support definitive conclusions, and 2) although important, this measure can be countered first by strong or weak goaltending (as well as other factors). This was my implicit point in my first response to his list: the #1 team in CF% was Carolina, who did not make the playoffs. The primary reason? Horrible tending.

One measure can never provide the entire picture. Data geeks strive to produce measures and composite indices that come ever closer to telling "the whole story," without ever reaching that end.

 

[marcel snapshot]

OMG - Gudas wrecked Coturier in practice and he's out for Game 4. Gudas strengthens his case for the moron hall of fame

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

The Vegas Golden Knights have now been as far as any Capitals team in the Ovechkin era by making it to the second round. When will they stop winning? Lol.

 

[Brian23]

I don't know how the NHL can look at what Vegas did in year one and think they can not only do the exact same expansion drafting strategy as before but also exempt Vegas from it.

I think they'll come back down to Earth next year, but there's no doubt they could go all the way this year offmomentum alone.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

As I predicted, Vegas beat the Kings.

The Kings did not wear down Las Vegas, at all.

I reflect back on Drew Doughty’s words midway through the year when he said that they were better than Las Vegas and that’d we’d see that at the end of the year. Ahhh....NOPE! Lol.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Flyers getting destroyed again. If the Caps manage to come back and dispatch CBus, they’ll have the “pleasure” of playing that wretched team again.

 

[maacoshark]

Flyers getting destroyed again. If the Caps manage to come back and dispatch CBus, they’ll have the “pleasure” of playing that wretched team again.

If we come back. We should be up 3-0 in this series.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

The Flyers stink.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

If we come back. We should be up 3-0 in this series.

Well, the Caps should have won games 1 and 2 but lost game 3. So, they should be up 2-1, IMHO.

 

[maacoshark]

Well, the Caps should have won games 1 and 2 but lost game 3. So, they should be up 2-1, IMHO.

I'd be fine with that. I'm bitter about those first 2 games.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

The Flyers stink.

Yes, yes they do.

Hoping they can win at least one more game but it’s looking grim.

 

[RandyHolt]

Pitt still running subtle interference up 4 zip on meaningless plays at center

Nice sell job from Brassard

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Pitt still running subtle interference up 4 zip on meaningless plays at center

It’s pretty well just practice time for them, anyway.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

I can't tell if Philly is really this trash, if Pitt is really this good, or if it's both. This is like a sparring session, like I almost believe it would have been more detrimental to Pitt to actually have a first round bye. This is like extended live practice, it's not even fair for whichever team has to play them next.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

The Fabulous Forsberg scores for Nashville. Lol.

1-0 Preds after one period.