2017-2018 Blues Discussion Thread Part Three

[Evocable Manager]

I really, really wouldn't split up Schwartz-Schenn-Jaskin

 

[Majorityof1]

Here is how I would rank the forwards I most want sent down when Steen comes back. This is a pretty clear order for me with big gaps between each one except 2 and 3. 1) Thorburn 2) Megan 3) Paajarvi 4) Upshall 5) Blais

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

You say Tage could create more given the chance, but he has had as much of a chance as Jaskin this season. Jaskin has gotten an extra game, but Tage has gotten twice as much PP time. Jaskin has created 7 scoring chances for himself vs 4 for Tage. 4 of Jaskin's were high danger v 1 for Tage. Jaskin has drawn 2 penalties and created 1 rebound vs 0 on both for Tage. Jaskin has been on the ice for 33 scoring chances v 14 for Tage. High Danger chances are even more lopsided. And let's not talk about defensive stats. Jaskin leads the team in Scoring chance for percentage, high Danger SCF%, and CF%. He doesn't do a lot of fancy things. His shot isn't great. He is very slow, but he is excellent in a support role. Schenn and Schwartz produced the best with him on their line for a reason. Jaskin has had numerous chances because he does things well that allow him to stick around and get those chances. Its not because Yeo suddenly thinks he is suddenly going to sprout wings and fly. There is nothing wrong with allowing Tage to develop in the AHl for a time. Kid's only 19. It would do well to give him some confidence scoring against men at a lower level, rather than having him muck it out in the NHL before he is fully ready.

I didn't say there is anything wrong with Tage being sent down to develop. I agree with that 100%. If he's not playing enough here, definitely send him down to get those minutes. There's a very good reason I'm not a scout or coach, so you're correct on my eye test maybe being faulty, but I would rather see Tage than Jaskin so my pov because of the fact that Tage has a MUCH higher ceiling and potential than Jaskin, so again, I think he should be playing more than Jaskin. Tage was also given more PP time on the 2nd unit which didn't really play as much as the 1st. Jaskin should have been on that 2nd PP with Thompson instead of Sundqvist imo, but again, we're not coaches. Having Tage "muck" it out in the NHL could benefit greater than in AHL due to harder competition and higher end players to learn from, imo, but obviously that's not always how it works.

I'm believing that for a team struggling to score goals, Jaskin isn't who they need for the exact reasons you stated. With all the stats you pointed to for why Jaskin is better, please tell me if he created more of those opportunities with Schenn and Schwartz or without? Seems to me Schenn and Schwartz would have garnered more of the defensive attention than Jaskin, making it easier for him to create opportunities. Same could be said for someone playing close with Tarasenko. I think Jaskin is an excellent support player for this team, but I don't like seeing him above a 3RW position.

Based on early play (and backed by Tierney's tweet above and the stats you mentioned), I did think Jaskin was doing fine on the RW side of Schenn and Schwartz but I also think that's it's because of Schwartz and Schenn's play more so than Jaskin's. Why would Jaskin have been moved off that line and down to the third? To get Tage, Paajarvi, or another player "going"? As soon as Jaskin was moved off that line, I think his play went down...why wasn't it consistent? I'm not uncomfortable with Jaskin playing, but I don't think he's who should be on the wing of either Stastny's or Schenn's line. Neither should Paajarvi for that matter, but here we sit becasue Fabbri is hurt and Steen is hurt.

You're going to defend Jaskin being there and possibly believe I'm a blooming ****ing idiot and that's fine. As I've stated above, I would rather see Tage based on his potential. However, much like the reason Thomas and Kyrou were sent down (to be "the guy" on their teams and get those style of reps in), I would agree Tage could use some of the same seasoning in AHL. I just thought that if he had been given the same number of games and time with better players like Jaskin was playing with, maybe he could have done something more. I look back at some of the plays I saw Tage start or try to create and Sundqvist or Paajarvi basically pooped themselves and couldn't finish and I asked myself, what if? I couldn't find a site that told me the time each spent on a line with Schenn and Schwartz, but if I'm not mistaken, Tage spent CONSIDERABLY less, so I don't think that quoting stats can always give you the full picture. Again, my opinion and I enjoy a spirited debate. We're all fans of the same team LGB!!!

 

[Vladys Gumption]

I really, really wouldn't split up Schwartz-Schenn-Jaskin

Upper right is good yes? I'm having a hard time reading the axis labels.

 

[Oberyn]

I would send Paajarvi down, in all honestly. Obviously Thorburn is the hope but we all know it's not going to happen. I'm a little confused as to why Yeo hasn't put Megan in for more than one game. He can play a fast game, is tenacious on the forecheck, and isn't an offensive black hole like Paajarvi. My ideal lines if Steen is back in would be:

Steen-Stastny-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Schenn-Blais
Sobotka-Barbashev-Jaskin
Upshall-Brodziak-Megan
Extras: Sundqvist, Thorburn

You could swap Jaskin and Megan if need be. I think Jaskin's play so far hasn't warranted him to be a healthy scratch, and I'm comfortable with him in the bottom six. Sundqvist has been good on the PK but hasn't done anything noteworthy outside of that.

 

[Evocable Manager]

Upper right is good yes? I'm having a hard time reading the axis labels.

Upper right is good (lots of shots attempts for, little against)
Lower right is fun (lots of shot attempts for and against)
Top left is dull (low shot attempts for and against)
Bottom left is bad (low shot attempts for and lots against)

You could say they've been one of the better lines in the league. Small sample size? Certainly, but until the numbers start to regress, I don't see why they should split up.

 

[HolyJumpin]

Upper right is good (lots of shots attempts for, little against)
Lower right is fun (lots of shot attempts for and against)
Top left is dull (low shot attempts for and against)
Bottom left is bad (low shot attempts for and lots against)

You could say they've been one of the better lines in the league. Small sample size? Certainly, but until the numbers start to regress, I don't see why they should split up.

I agree, Jaskin has also been a fantastic advanced stat force for a couple of years. I would love to see Bennett up here soon too, both players could help drive play on the second and third lines.

 

[Brian39]

In support of Jaskin, this team is also in need of suppressing shots, which is something he is very, very good at. We're currently allowing the 4th most shots against per game. Offense is an issue right now, but defensive structure is arguably just as big an issue. Jaskin is hands down the best Blues forward at shot suppression right now. He may be the passenger on that Schwartz/Schenn line in the offensive zone, but he is doing serious heavy lifting his own zone and in the neutral zone.

Schenn and Schwartz are each basically right at even in terms of high danger chances for and against. Jaskin is an insane 80% (12 high danger chances for, 3 against). Same thing with scoring chances in general. Jaskin is at 73% for while Schenn and Schwartz are in the low 50s. I don't have shift by shift stats, but my eye test tells me that most of Jaskin's chances for have occurred with Schwartz/Schenn and not when he has been out with other linemates. By necessity, these stats suggest that Schwartz/Schenn allow significantly more chances against when they are out there without Jaskin. I get that possession and chance metrics aren't everything, but the eye test should tell you that Jaskin is playing a great defensive game. Yes, we need offense, but we also need defense because we have been somewhere between bad and terrible defensively this year.

I don't think the expected offensive increase of a replacement for Jaskin outweighs the defensive decrease. If it does, it certainly isn't by a significant margin. Given that we have proof of concept that the Schenn/Schwartz/Jaskin line can be a top end NHL line, I don't think it should be messed with on the chance that someone else clicks (at least until Jaskin starts playing worse).

 

[Thallis]

Upper right is good (lots of shots attempts for, little against)
Lower right is fun (lots of shot attempts for and against)
Top left is dull (low shot attempts for and against)
Bottom left is bad (low shot attempts for and lots against)

You could say they've been one of the better lines in the league. Small sample size? Certainly, but until the numbers start to regress, I don't see why they should split up.

Chart doesn't really show any other combos though. Blais can actually be a participant in making plays as opposed to being just a net front guy, so I'd keep him there for now.

 

[KirkOut]

I think really what we all mean is that we shouldn't split up Schenn and Schwartz

 

[PiggySmalls]

I think really what we all mean is that we shouldn't split up Schenn and Schwartz

Glad we don’t have Hitch, he would have done separated them.

 

[nonzerochance]

Glad we don’t have Hitch, he would have done separated them.

Didn't Hitch used to build lines starting from pairs? I think Schwartz/Schenn would probably be safe under him.

 

[Renard]

I've been out of town, and mostly out of internet connection for two weeks. When I could get connectivity, I read comments about how bad Thorburn has been.

I'm going to my first game tonight, and I hope Thorburn is in the lineup. I want to see Thorburn for myself. I'd be surprised to find that he is taking a regular shift, even on the fourth line.

 

[Brian39]

Chart doesn't really show any other combos though. Blais can actually be a participant in making plays as opposed to being just a net front guy, so I'd keep him there for now.

Disclaimer: I have 5 minutes of down time and this is largely a rough estimate. However, digging into the stats a bit a Natural Stat Trick suggests that Schenn/Schwarz CF/60 and CA/60 gets worse without Jaskin.

Overall, Schwartz has a CF/60 of 58.8 and a CA/60 of 64.53 at 5 on 5. Schenn has a CF/60 of 58.7 and a CA/60 of 57.19 at 5 on 5.

Now we don't know for sure that this graph is using just 5 on 5, but I think it is a pretty safe assumption. The numbers are pretty much the same if you use 'even strength. In the chart, it has that line at about 75 CF/60 and 30 CA/60, which are both drastically better than their overall stats. Logically, the only way Schenn/Schwartz could regress from those numbers to their overall numbers is if their CF/60 and CA/60 have been worse when they aren't on the ice with Jaskin.

I can't give you exact numbers without spending hours pouring over data, but it is clear from those numbers that Schenn/Schwartz are generating and suppressing more with Jaskin than anyone else so far.

I'm not saying Jaskin is the straw that stirs the drink, but Schenn/Schwartz have been tangibly better with him than without him this season.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

Well, Jaskin might be offensively disappointing, but he sure knows how to be an adv. stat genious.

In other words, he's one of the more infuriating players in the league to watch. I do hope he can find some offensive spark so he can be more that just an elite bottom-6 player. Either that, or I hope Blais, Steen, or someone else can provide a reason to move him down.

I'm pretty convinced at this point.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Disclaimer: I have 5 minutes of down time and this is largely a rough estimate. However, digging into the stats a bit a Natural Stat Trick suggests that Schenn/Schwarz CF/60 and CA/60 gets worse without Jaskin.

Overall, Schwartz has a CF/60 of 58.8 and a CA/60 of 64.53 at 5 on 5. Schenn has a CF/60 of 58.7 and a CA/60 of 57.19 at 5 on 5.

Now we don't know for sure that this graph is using just 5 on 5, but I think it is a pretty safe assumption. The numbers are pretty much the same if you use 'even strength. In the chart, it has that line at about 75 CF/60 and 30 CA/60, which are both drastically better than their overall stats. Logically, the only way Schenn/Schwartz could regress from those numbers to their overall numbers is if their CF/60 and CA/60 have been worse when they aren't on the ice with Jaskin.

I can't give you exact numbers without spending hours pouring over data, but it is clear from those numbers that Schenn/Schwartz are generating and suppressing more with Jaskin than anyone else so far.

I'm not saying Jaskin is the straw that stirs the drink, but Schenn/Schwartz have been tangibly better with him than without him this season.

I’m not too surprised by this. Jaskin doesn’t have great offensive skills but what he is good at is maintaining possession, board battles and forechecking. Those traits should help get pucks to Schwartz and Schenn and lead to more chances for and less against even if Jaskin himself doesn’t really rack up the points.

Perhaps someone else could complement Schwartz and Schenn even better or maybe having Jaskin on another line is what ends up being what’s best for the team as a whole but then again, I wouldn’t be surprised if keeping Jaskin with those 2 is what’s best for the team. It’s all about balance and creating 3 effective scoring lines.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Sounds like Megan is on waivers and Steen is being activated. Would have preferred to waive Paajarvi, but I'm just glad to have Steen back.

 

[Oberyn]

Disappointed that the Blues waived Megan instead of Paajarvi. I would have liked to see Megan get a shot here.

 

[Brian39]

I don't think Megan will be claimed, but there are certainly a couple guys I'd have preferred to pass through waivers. As much as I was rooting for him, I'm ready to close the book on PRV.

With that said, I'd rather risk Megan than send Blais down at this point simply because he doesn't require waivers. I'd rather lose an asset like Megan to waivers in return for finding out what I have in Blais.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I’m glad the Blues are giving Blais a shot even with Steen returning.

According to JR, top 2 lines will be:

Steen-Stastny-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Schenn-Blais

I like it!

I would assume that means Sobi gets pushed to line 3. Hopefully he can get that line producing.

 

[TheBluePenguin]

I’m glad the Blues are giving Blais a shot even with Steen returning.

According to JR, top 2 lines will be:

Steen-Stastny-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Schenn-Blais

I like it!

I would assume that means Sobi gets pushed to line 3. Hopefully he can get that line producing.

Surprised they pushed Sobi and not Blias, but I do think Sobi had a better chance to lift up his linemates bit I have been happy worth his play so far

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Surprised they pushed Sobi and not Blias, but I do think Sobi had a better chance to lift up his linemates bit I have been happy worth his play so far

I'm happy to keep Blais on the second line. Schwartz and Schenn are more than capable of doing the heavy lifting there. The third line desperately needs a boost and I think Sobotka can do that.

 

[TruBlu]

What do you think the chances are that they slot Sobi at Center to help with our horrendous fo % so far this season?

 

[STL fan in MN]

What do you think the chances are that they slot Sobi at Center to help with our horrendous fo % so far this season?

He’s not listed at C so I’d say low odds.

That doesn’t mean he can’t take faceoffs though as he and Barbs could just switch defensive responsibility at the first opportunity after the draw.

I haven’t seen the Blues really employ that yet since Sobi returned though...and I’m not really sure why. I recall Sobi saying last season that he wasn’t comfortable playing C in the NHL right away but I had assumed he’d be good to play C this season but perhaps that was incorrect.

Another thought is that since Sobi is also good at LW and along the boards and Barbs is much better at C than LW (that’s my opinion anyway) that perhaps Sobi at LW and Barbs at C is what’s best for the team as a whole.

 

[Renard]

Disappointed that the Blues waived Megan instead of Paajarvi. I would have liked to see Megan get a shot here.

I have long been an advocate for Paajarvi. I thought that once he played regularly for half a season or so, he would gain confidence and find an NHL scoring touch. But it hasn't happened, and if we can replace him with someone better, its OK with me.

I gave up on Jaskin a couple of years ago, and was disappointed that he made the team this year.

And I too wished that Megan got a longer look. Maybe that will happen later this season.