Upgrade your account today to enjoy the forums ad-free.
Click here to upgrade: Account Upgrades

2017-18 stats and underlying metrics thread [Mod: updated season]

Discussion in 'Winnipeg Jets' started by garret9, Aug 2, 2014.

  1. Ippenator

    Ippenator Registered User

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2016
    Messages:
    2,779
    Likes Received:
    1,154
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Espoo
    Yes I know that exactly. Proves to me that he knows how to talk his way through. Noticed it many times here too. Nothing bad about that of course. It should make you successful in anything that you do with good knowledge on the subject. Still doesn’t make all that stats stuff really so much needed as some people want to believe, or want others to believe.

    Your poker insinuation is honestly weird. What does bluntly speaking in this kind of a forum have anything to do with how people would play poker? I will anyway make it easier for you. I don’t play card games at all, and I also don’t do any other form of gambling at all. Well, unless investing to the stock market is not included. Gambling and card games just are not at all my cup of tea. I will rather play a good RTS -game on my computer if I want some nice strategic challenge.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2018
  2. winnipegger

    winnipegger Registered User

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2013
    Messages:
    5,780
    Likes Received:
    1,946
    Trophy Points:
    111
    Do you honestly think that NHL owners would give money to statisticians just out of good will? Or that they have been taken in by savvy marketing and lies? NHL owners are in the business of winning and getting advantages over their opponents. Having more information than your competitor = advantage.

    If a co-worker came up to me and said "put down that calculator I have a good eye" I would not listen to said person.
     
    Mathmew Purrrr Oh likes this.
  3. Ippenator

    Ippenator Registered User

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2016
    Messages:
    2,779
    Likes Received:
    1,154
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Espoo
    No, but it’s the ”what if”-factor that makes them grasp even some straws. I can’t claim that stats can’t be at least somehow used to the benefit of coaches. But the meaning is still exaggerated way over what it really should be. And that is because of some very talented marketing by the stats companies.
     
  4. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2012
    Messages:
    20,107
    Likes Received:
    557
    Trophy Points:
    139
    Location:
    Vancouver
    Home Page:
    Stats people are not sales people at all... and that definitely shows you haven't met them... because the ability to market and sell is something they severely lack.

    What they have done is stood the test of time, had their work constantly scrutinized, and come out on top.

    Difference. :)
     
    Mathmew Purrrr Oh likes this.
  5. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2012
    Messages:
    20,107
    Likes Received:
    557
    Trophy Points:
    139
    Location:
    Vancouver
    Home Page:
    There is no "BIG CORSI" thing going on.

    Stats are not exaggerating their importance, because the whole results with measuring and testing the meaningfulness of these things are is what made them grow in popularity.

    They have been constantly retested by multiple people. The results were what they are. They are as meaningful as they have been tested to be.

    For fun, 4 of the past and current Hockey-Graph writers literately got into hockey stats to try and prove the "Corsi nerds" wrong, and found out that the nerds were not...
     
    Jack722 likes this.
  6. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2012
    Messages:
    20,107
    Likes Received:
    557
    Trophy Points:
    139
    Location:
    Vancouver
    Home Page:
    The whole hockey analytics thing grew out of people constantly testing and retesting other peoples work.

    You can see multiple blog posts about people thinking things must be different and then studying it and finding out it wasn't the case.

    It grew out of people ACTUALLY scrutinizing other peoples analytical work appropriately... as opposed to waiving their hands in the air and making some pretty crazy accusations.

    This whole conspiracy angle is just asinine.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2018
  7. Mathmew Purrrr Oh

    Mathmew Purrrr Oh #meowmeowmeowmeow

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2013
    Messages:
    5,636
    Likes Received:
    104
    Trophy Points:
    81
    Occupation:
    Pastry Chef
    Location:
    meow

    You sold me! I'll take 2.
     
    garret9 and ps241 like this.
  8. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2012
    Messages:
    20,107
    Likes Received:
    557
    Trophy Points:
    139
    Location:
    Vancouver
    Home Page:
    Purrrrfect
     
  9. Whileee

    Whileee Registered User

    Joined:
    May 29, 2010
    Messages:
    31,583
    Likes Received:
    4,496
    Trophy Points:
    156
    One of my concerns with stats in hockey is that as it is becoming more and more commercialized, the incentives for publishing methods and results in peer-reviewed publications are diminishing. It's becoming more and more difficult to know whether a particular analysis is sound or reproducible because the underlying models and assumptions aren't fully disclosed. Also, we are going to get a lot of flim-flam with profits involved. As an example, Chayka's Stathletes claims that their methodology offers more than 100x the "statistical resolution" of other methods. Should we just take that at face value?

    I'm all for greater use of statistical methods, but I think that now we are going to get less and less open-sourced science.
     
    Halberdier likes this.
  10. winnipegger

    winnipegger Registered User

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2013
    Messages:
    5,780
    Likes Received:
    1,946
    Trophy Points:
    111
    The game of checkers can be "solved", i.e. you can win every time because you have 100% information. I can't see the game of hockey ever being solved in the same way so I think we're good to keep watching.
     
  11. YWGinYYZ

    YWGinYYZ Administrator

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2011
    Messages:
    27,414
    Likes Received:
    4,122
    Trophy Points:
    157
    Location:
    Toronto
    I don't think anyone has ever said you need to stop watching. Stats are supplemental - people are completely free to ignore them if they'd like.
     
  12. Sperss1997

    Sperss1997 Registered User

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2015
    Messages:
    413
    Likes Received:
    39
    Trophy Points:
    36
    Location:
    Aarhus
    A English soccer statician ran 10,000 simulations over a full Premier League season. I do not have a link, sorry. All 10,000 were made with 20 teams playing 38 games and all games were 50/50.
    On average there would be 30 points between the champion and the bottom placed team each season and the table "lied" about 6 points on average for each team.
    Hey, found the article - here is the link Does the league table lie?
     
    Se829ne, JetsUK and Maukkis like this.
  13. JetsUK

    JetsUK Registered User

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2015
    Messages:
    1,472
    Likes Received:
    621
    Trophy Points:
    94
    That was a fun read, thanks. I may run a version of this at my lab later on this year when we have some spare capacity. If I do, and it works, I’ll try and report back.
     
  14. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2012
    Messages:
    20,107
    Likes Received:
    557
    Trophy Points:
    139
    Location:
    Vancouver
    Home Page:
    The good news is that type of stuff isn't the stats/research we are currently talking about, and rarely is the stats/research we usually talk about on this forum.

    The closest would be expected goal and WAR models, which at least have their methodology given, and people have recreated very similar outcomes with similar results and testing performance.

    The blackbox stuff is more of a problem for me than the forum posters here hahah. I see coaches and GMs (not just NHL level) falling for blackbox stuff or simply not understanding some statistical foundational stuff and having that being taken advantage of.

    Hahah ya that's a similar experiment to Desjardins.
     
  15. Jetsfareast

    Jetsfareast #werisetogether

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2012
    Messages:
    5,186
    Likes Received:
    1,238
    Trophy Points:
    109
    Occupation:
    Jets follower
    Location:
    Somewhere nice
    Like stats same as eye test.
    It just sometimes not Garrett. Mostly in the main board uses it as be all end all data to figure out a player or a team.
     
  16. Aavco Cup

    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2013
    Messages:
    37,630
    Likes Received:
    10,352
    Trophy Points:
    142
    Athletic piece on Hendricks (paywall of course)

    How the Jets can get the most out of Matt Hendricks

    [​IMG]

    There are a lot of stories here. First, most players do better in terms of creating shots without Hendricks than he does without them. In terms of shots allowed, it’s 50/50 – a few players give up fewer with Hendricks than he does without them but a few players also give up more.
    Do you know what I think the most striking thing about this chart is?
    It’s that every single “player with 15” box is in the positive half of the chart.
    If Hendricks is the terrible drag on possession that he’s supposed to be, it’s not showing in these numbers.
     
  17. Aavco Cup

    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2013
    Messages:
    37,630
    Likes Received:
    10,352
    Trophy Points:
    142
  18. Whileee

    Whileee Registered User

    Joined:
    May 29, 2010
    Messages:
    31,583
    Likes Received:
    4,496
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Myers and Kulikov have struggled with extra icetime and tougher match-ups. They actually had good shot metrics before Trouba and Enstrom went down.

    Buff and Enstrom have been terrific this season.

    Morrissey and Trouba have held their own against the toughest match-ups.
     
  19. Aavco Cup

    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2013
    Messages:
    37,630
    Likes Received:
    10,352
    Trophy Points:
    142
    [​IMG]
     
    ps241 likes this.
  20. Aavco Cup

    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2013
    Messages:
    37,630
    Likes Received:
    10,352
    Trophy Points:
    142
  21. Aavco Cup

    Aavco Cup "I can make you cry in this room"

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2013
    Messages:
    37,630
    Likes Received:
    10,352
    Trophy Points:
    142
    Look at our team regression.

    [​IMG]
     
    Trilliann likes this.
  22. Gm0ney

    Gm0ney Unicorns salient

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2011
    Messages:
    9,362
    Likes Received:
    1,434
    Trophy Points:
    110
    Location:
    Winnipeg
    An On-Ice S% >10 is generally unsustainable season-to-season (Laine and Rakell the only exceptions).
     
  23. mcpw

    mcpw WPG

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2015
    Messages:
    9,514
    Likes Received:
    1,318
    Trophy Points:
    104
    5v5 sh% leaders

    2016-17 Laine 12.6%
    2017-18 Matthews 13.1%

    i can't believe the jets drafted laine over matthews
     
  24. Gm0ney

    Gm0ney Unicorns salient

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2011
    Messages:
    9,362
    Likes Received:
    1,434
    Trophy Points:
    110
    Location:
    Winnipeg
    Have you seen where Matthews shoots from?
    [​IMG]

    Cf. Laine:
    [​IMG]
     
  25. Saidin

    Saidin Registered User

    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2015
    Messages:
    561
    Likes Received:
    362
    Trophy Points:
    60
    They are both supreme talents. Hate how there's such a big pissing match comparing both of them.
     

Share This Page

monitoring_string = "358c248ada348a047a4b9bb27a146148"