2017-18 stats and underlying metrics thread [Mod: updated season]

[garret9]

Now trying to integrate defensive zone face off data with zone exit data.

Joe: Hahaha maybe we should make a HFJets kickstarter!

 

[Whileee]

Please support Corey if your interested in his stuff:
http://www.gofundme.com/allthreezones

He's my zone entry/exit source (why I was able to stop doing it myself manually).
For example, I used his data here in an article I wrote on new Jet Perreault:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2014...erreaults-strong-possession-numbers-come-from

This is terrific stuff.

A couple of thoughts in relation to the Jets...

1) Maurice has stated on a few occasions that he wants the Jets to carry the puck more and dump it less - basically be more creative. Noel struck me as a coach that favoured a style and players that dumped the puck more and tried to retrieve it (hello James Wright, good-bye Burmi).

2) The Jets seem to be drafting and signing some players that are more skilled at carrying the puck and zone entry: Petan, Ehlers, Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey, (Perreault over Jokinen).

3) I wonder whether these concepts are going to translate to their defensive game. They seem to be going to a fairly mobile defense, which should help with gap control and force more plays in the neutral zone.

 

[garret9]

Ya, I wasn't a fan of Noel's zone entry work:

 

[Whileee]

Ya, I wasn't a fan of Noel's zone entry work:

I feel nauseated just looking at that image. The only thing worse would be to see Wright charging in on the forecheck, (with Burmi in the pressbox).

 

[ps241]

A few interesting tweets from Pronman tonight.

"The most interesting thing I found was how many teams "2D" seemed to be overused. Often vs high QoC, because real 2D shoots other way" (not sure what the last part means?)

"I've always felt like a Dman vs good QoC who keeps the chances 50/50 is more valuable than a low QoC D who has a 53% Corsi"

"One more observation: Seemed teams don't --on average--tend to have 4 top D. Most tend to have 3 who are high quality , and a 4th tweener."

 

[truck]

A few interesting tweets from Pronman tonight.

"The most interesting thing I found was how many teams "2D" seemed to be overused. Often vs high QoC, because real 2D shoots other way" (not sure what the last part means?)

"I've always felt like a Dman vs good QoC who keeps the chances 50/50 is more valuable than a low QoC D who has a 53% Corsi"

"One more observation: Seemed teams don't --on average--tend to have 4 top D. Most tend to have 3 who are high quality , and a 4th tweener."

I think he is saying that teams often give a lesser player big ice because they want a LD, RD pairing. Meanwhile the player that should be #2 on the depth chart is stuck on a second pair.

 

[garret9]

Heh... just noticed a guy from Dark Horse Analytics follows me on twitter.
Also just noticed a few WHL and OHL management types follow me.
And a NHL player agent.
Things that make you wonder who has seen the stuff I've written or who has come on to HFBoards to read our discussions here.

 

[ps241]

Heh... just noticed a guy from Dark Horse Analytics follows me on twitter.
Also just noticed a few WHL and OHL management types follow me.
And a NHL player agent.
Things that make you wonder who has seen the stuff I've written or who has come on to HFBoards to read our discussions here.

Always nice to be stalked by the right people

 

[ps241]

I think he is saying that teams often give a lesser player big ice because they want a LD, RD pairing. Meanwhile the player that should be #2 on the depth chart is stuck on a second pair.

Thanks and Of coarse! That is funny I would miss something so obvious.

 

[truck]

Thanks and Of coarse! That is funny I would miss something so obvious.

The wording was very messy.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Interesting read

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/advanced-stats-vs-the-old-guard-inside-the-bitter-rivalry/

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Interesting read

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/advanced-stats-vs-the-old-guard-inside-the-bitter-rivalry/

Very good story. I had come across a reference to that radio confrontation once before but this told the story very well and put it into context.

Does this paragraph ring any bells?
Once the advanced stat proponents developed a strong social media presence, with tens of thousands of Twitter followers, their influence spiked. The sudden prevalence of analytics bloggers-turned NHL team employees reflects that. Simmons insists many GMs in the league are forced to feign interest in possession numbers now to avoid being publicly flogged by the bloggers, and that “guys I know personally who really don’t care much for the stats will say when you ask them on the record, ‘Oh yeah, we do a lot of work in that area.’ â€

There were several other paragraphs that I was inclined to quote but I don't want to copy/paste the whole article. I'll just recommend you read it.

 

[garret9]

I honestly don't think the guys are idiots... However, I think very few of them actually understand what the numbers are about and how they are used...

 

[Board Bard]

Very good story. I had come across a reference to that radio confrontation once before but this told the story very well and put it into context.

Does this paragraph ring any bells?
Once the advanced stat proponents developed a strong social media presence, with tens of thousands of Twitter followers, their influence spiked. The sudden prevalence of analytics bloggers-turned NHL team employees reflects that. Simmons insists many GMs in the league are forced to feign interest in possession numbers now to avoid being publicly flogged by the bloggers, and that “guys I know personally who really don’t care much for the stats will say when you ask them on the record, ‘Oh yeah, we do a lot of work in that area.’ â€

There were several other paragraphs that I was inclined to quote but I don't want to copy/paste the whole article. I'll just recommend you read it.

When I read the bold, why do I think "Kevin Chevyldayoff"?

 

[pucka lucka]

Very good story. I had come across a reference to that radio confrontation once before but this told the story very well and put it into context.

Does this paragraph ring any bells?
Once the advanced stat proponents developed a strong social media presence, with tens of thousands of Twitter followers, their influence spiked. The sudden prevalence of analytics bloggers-turned NHL team employees reflects that. Simmons insists many GMs in the league are forced to feign interest in possession numbers now to avoid being publicly flogged by the bloggers, and that “guys I know personally who really don’t care much for the stats will say when you ask them on the record, ‘Oh yeah, we do a lot of work in that area.’ â€

There were several other paragraphs that I was inclined to quote but I don't want to copy/paste the whole article. I'll just recommend you read it.

Simmons is a ****ing moron. Total blowhard who thinks he's part of the NHL in-group.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

When I read the bold, why do I think "Kevin Chevyldayoff"?

I dunno', why is that?

 

[garret9]

When I read the bold, why do I think "Kevin Chevyldayoff"?

I don't know much inside, although I know a few things...

However, I found it interesting that all the knocks against stats Chevy used on the Ed Tait piece were things the analytical community is well aware of and even have ways to compensate for.

 

[pucka lucka]

I don't know much inside, although I know a few things...

However, I found it interesting that all the knocks against stats Chevy used on the Ed Tait piece were things the analytical community is well aware of and even have ways to compensate for.

It was bizarre for Chevy to say what he said. There was no good reason to say what he said. Anyone who is the slightest bit competent knows what he said made no sense.

 

[garret9]

It was bizarre for Chevy to say what he said. There was no good reason to say what he said. Anyone who is the slightest bit competent knows what he said made no sense.

Odd indeed. However, I can give him two defences:
1) His understanding of the numbers matters less than does someone in the organization understand the numbers and how does he take those thoughts by his advisors into consideration
2) It could all be BS. Tough to truly know what goes behind the curtains, even if I have been given some hints that are not overly confidence inspiring... although a hint is nothing more than that.

 

[boanst]

Okay, not having extra skater really sucks. I need to know if there is another site that shows a team's player usage charts like they do.

Im trying to get into btn but im not sure which category to use for QoC or QoT purposes either.

 

[garret9]

Okay, not having extra skater really sucks. I need to know if there is another site that shows a team's player usage charts like they do.

Im trying to get into btn but im not sure which category to use for QoC or QoT purposes either.

Only rob Vollman's site (hockey abstract) has player usage charts, and they are not as user friendly.

It should also be noted that a lot of the hockey websites measure QoC and QoT differently.
Extra skater used weighted avg of their line mates or opponents TOI (in terms of what % of their teams total available TOI)
BTN uses avg Corsi of opponents or line mates
HA uses avg Corsi of opponents or line mates when the player in question was not on the ice

 

[garret9]

UND coach followed me (my hockeygraphs account, not my garret account)... Thought it was Poolman's coach. Turns out to be the women's team coach. Close enough for me!

 

[garret9]

Just a question then

Is Tangradi a better 4th line option then Halischuk by using just the numbers then?

Hey Joe... a reply late is better than never right?

Scoring talent influence on goal differentials and statistical double dipping

Enjoy

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hey Joe... a reply late is better than never right?

Scoring talent influence on goal differentials and statistical double dipping

Enjoy

Correct me if I am wrong but didn't Hali get most of his TOI last year on the 3rd line? Would QoT not contribute to the difference?

 

[garret9]

Correct me if I am wrong but didn't Hali get most of his TOI last year on the 3rd line? Would QoT not contribute to the difference?

The linemates they had definitely played a role. Halischuk's linemates avg'd a higher goals and Fenwick for per minute without him on the ice than Tangradi's linemates without Tangradi on the ice... However, these guys are and historically have been at the very extremes of what you expect for a 4th line player. What's interesting is they are at opposite extremes of both each other and themselves in the other stat.

Also, this is not about building a WAR (yet), but rather just looking at what happened when the player was on the ice and translate that value in terms of goal differentials. So no context is being accounted for, yet...