2017-18 stats and underlying metrics thread [Mod: updated season]

[surixon]

Well, hopefully he turns it around from last year...

(From https://twitter.com/EvolvingWild)

This model doesn't really rate defensive ability and skews heavily towards offensive ability so it's not surprising that he doesn't show well.

I believe in the other model he sits near the top of their dmen.

 

[Gm0ney]

This model doesn't really rate defensive ability and skews heavily towards offensive ability so it's not surprising that he doesn't show well.

I believe in the other model he sits near the top of their dmen.

Oh yeah, defensive defensemen do not seem to do well at all in this metric...but Powder88 asked about him and I saw the Buffalo chart. Hopefully he can handle the role he's given here and bounces back.

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

Oh yeah, defensive defensemen do not seem to do well at all in this metric...but Powder88 asked about him and I saw the Buffalo chart. Hopefully he can handle the role he's given here and bounces back.

I hope he becomes more active again - he's capable of it

 

[Aavco Cup]

Garret retweeted these charts

Don't let Overhardt see this one.

And just for fun how surprising is it to see the entire GST line represented in the bottom of the forward list.

 

[Aavco Cup]

 

[WPGChief]

Feels good to be back

TL;DR - Wheeler and Perreault are good hockey players. Tanev is kinda decent offensively but generates quite literally nothing relative to the team. Stuart bleeds shots. Thorburn is a combo of Tanev and Stuart.

 

[JetsFan815]

I know it's early days but Micah Blake McCurdy updated his website with shot rate heatmaps and the ones for the are Jets (esp shots against) are hillarious.

http://hockeyviz.com/team/WPG/1718

Jets Shots For:

Jets Shots Against:

So so our shot rate from the the front of the net and the low slot are is bad. On the other, when it comes to shots against, there is a party going on in front of the Jets net, all the way through the high slot area. What could possibly go wrong

 

[grieves]

Yikes. Seems like we didn't deserve to win that one.

 

[SensibleGuy]

Yikes. Seems like we didn't deserve to win that one.

well, that's for all three games right?

 

[grieves]

well, that's for all three games right?

Ah, my mistake.

 

[JetsFan815]

Cross-post from the GDT. This is probably more relevant for this thread:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/jets-hold-on-win-2-1.2397631/page-7#post-136759123

This discussion inspired me to think of way to quanitify "how much should a team should win/lose the shot attempt battle against another team" rather than me saying "It would have been better to win it against another team x% or lose to anohter team by just y%"

I don't know if this stat already exists or not but here's something that I'm calling "Quality Above Expected Corsi". This is similar to the Quality SV % but slightly different. If we look at the average (score adjusted) Corsi for each team from last season, then for each game they play against the Jets we can can come up with a number for "how much should the Jets win/lose the shot battle against that team in the game to be land around league average". In other words it gives us an idea of how far off the Jets were in that game from a league average team that played against their opponenent in the previous sesason.

Here's the table for the Jets so far:

Opponent	Quality Above Expected Corsi
Leafs	-3.71
Flames	-11.32
Oilers	2.18
Canucks	-3.72
Hurricanes	-7.47

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If you are 0 or above then you are at par or above. So judging by above there has been only 1 game where the Jets Corsi For met or exceeded the average Corsi Against from last season of the team they were playing against.

This is not perfect ofcourse, teams have roster turnover, change coaches, systems change etc which makes their numbers from last season not as applicable but it should still give a rough idea (and this season's data can be used after teams have played ~25 games).

 

[Aavco Cup]

Is another one leaving the public realm?

 

[WPGChief]

Is another one leaving the public realm?

Pray that @MannyElk doesn't like money and likes to meme more than Hockey Operations are willing to deal with

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Is another one leaving the public realm?

That sucks for hockey fans, but I'm really happy for him. Seeing people turn a passion into a career is always great to me. Hopefully his twitter wont end up being all about his dream of removing the whole entry draft process, because might have to unfollow at that point

 

[JetsFan815]

Is another one leaving the public realm?

Huge loss for the hockey fan community.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

Just wondering if anyone has some info on actual zone time and how it relates or doesn't to improved scoring chances and/or shot location.

I know zone time has generally been disregarded but I had heard something about it when the pens were getting out corsid every game.

I've heard PoMo talk about it too.

Just curious if there is any new research that teams are purposefuly putting less pucks at the net in favor of better chances.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Just wondering if anyone has some info on actual zone time and how it relates or doesn't to improved scoring chances and/or shot location.

I know zone time has generally been disregarded but I had heard something about it when the pens were getting out corsid every game.

I've heard PoMo talk about it too.

Just curious if there is any new research that teams are purposefuly putting less pucks at the net in favor of better chances.

IIRC Maurice was talking about last season when he said we were a top 5 team in Ozone time.

The problem with this is we don't know exactly how they define zone time. Is it only with clear possession? Or strictly where the puck is. There could be a lot of variance and subjectivity on these kind of stats if it's the former.

But on that note, this is from this weeks 31 thoughts

30. Do not be surprised if the NHL fiddles around with more player tracking at All-Star. Hearing a German company — Jogmo — is making a pitch. There have also been rumours of the NHL talking to Second Spectrum, an interesting organization that does data/visual work for the NBA, among others. But I can’t pin that one down.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

IIRC Maurice was talking about last season when he said we were a top 5 team in Ozone time.

The problem with this is we don't know exactly how they define zone time. Is it only with clear possession? Or strictly where the puck is. There could be a lot of variance and subjectivity on these kind of stats if it's the former.

But on that note, this is from this weeks 31 thoughts

30. Do not be surprised if the NHL fiddles around with more player tracking at All-Star. Hearing a German company — Jogmo — is making a pitch. There have also been rumours of the NHL talking to Second Spectrum, an interesting organization that does data/visual work for the NBA, among others. But I can’t pin that one down.

PoMo has talked about it in some individual game PC too.

I remember in the playoffs one of the 1290 shows had I believe Cullen on and he was talking specifically about how the Pens were getting out shot attempted and sometimes severely but they were creating better offensive chances with a lot of Ozone time and not just putting pucks to the net.

Was wondering if there is anything about this anywhere.

As it relates to the Jets, I've found the top 2 lines (and chefs line specifically) often look like they are passing up decent shooting opportunities in favor of trying to make plays for even better if more risky options.

Wondering if there is anything to this.

As well the Mike Kelly (I believe) video/report on how mark scheifele has been shooting less but more often from the slot has piqued my interest in this.

 

[Aavco Cup]

PoMo has talked about it in some individual game PC too.

I remember in the playoffs one of the 1290 shows had I believe Cullen on and he was talking specifically about how the Pens were getting out shot attempted and sometimes severely but they were creating better offensive chances with a lot of Ozone time and not just putting pucks to the net.

Was wondering if there is anything about this anywhere.

As it relates to the Jets, I've found the top 2 lines (and chefs line specifically) often look like they are passing up decent shooting opportunities in favor of trying to make plays for even better if more risky options.

Wondering if there is anything to this.

As well the Mike Kelly (I believe) video/report on how mark scheifele has been shooting less but more often from the slot has piqued my interest in this.

The Jets either have someone hired to do it or contract an outside company to provide them with their data.

I'm not aware of anything in the public realm. So far IIRC zone time by itself has not been shown to be a better predictor of future results than xGoals or even Corsi.

The game does evolve over time and so could the relationships of things like this. If it was readily available info we'd probably see more people exploring this IMO

 

[Aavco Cup]

3rd line very important. 4th line not so much

 

[JetsFan815]

Checkup of the team 6 games in:

CF%: 45.08 28th in the league
xGF/60: 1.77 28th in the league
xGA/60: 2.22 13th in the league
xGF%: 44.39 28th in the league
Sh%: 9.51 % 10th in the league

We are now in "this is a worrying trend territory". If this is the case 15 games in, we are in "Playoffs hopes are not looking good" territory. 25-30 games and numbers like this we are in "Start researching top-5 2018 draft prospects" territory. The coaching staff needs to do something before it's too late. Can't tinker around or "be patient" with the system, something drastic needs to change in how the Jets play to save the season

 

[Aavco Cup]

Yost wrote a very interesting piece about private vs public analytics. This snippet is the part that intrigued me. The Jets most certainly are contracting someone. But are they contracting someone for data? Or for analysis? Or both?

[snip]

Just to recap: I think shot quantity matters. I also think shot quality matters. I think shot quantity matters more because it’s proven to be extremely indicative of a team’s true talent. I think when the data is aggregated together on an expected goal basis, the measures become even more robust.
But stuff like this bothers me. Tremendously so. If it’s not disingenuous, it’s bad faith. And if it’s neither, then it’s unacceptable negligence.
Keep in mind that NHL teams today are facing the same exact issue. Who do you believe? Who do you trust? Some teams have went with private data exclusively. Most teams, in fact. But some of those teams are just ingesting the data – they have hired publicly-vetted, credible analysts to utilize that data to run complex analyses and make difficult decisions.
I don’t think you need to be vetted in the public sphere to ‘check out’ as a stat-based hockey analyst. Far from it! But it sure is interesting that some teams – when faced with the question of ‘do you want our data or do you want our ‘services’? – have chosen the former.
Those teams are worried about getting pushed down the wrong path. And they can’t risk being wrong, because their jobs are on the line.

[snip]

I recommend reading the whole thing here

 

[WPGChief]

Yost wrote a very interesting piece about private vs public analytics. This snippet is the part that intrigued me. The Jets most certainly are contracting someone. But are they contracting someone for data? Or for analysis? Or both?

While I can't tell you who the Jets use or might use specifically, I can link you to a company whose name I've begun hearing being thrown around a lot more.

EDIT: They also presented at the last OTTHAC if you want a more in-depth video of what they offer.

 

[JetsFan815]

Yost wrote a very interesting piece about private vs public analytics. This snippet is the part that intrigued me. The Jets most certainly are contracting someone. But are they contracting someone for data? Or for analysis? Or both?

Consider the following from the Jets offseason:

The Jets tried to sign Matt Stone/Karl Alzner
The Jets tried to trade for Alexie Emelin
The Jets signed Kulikov
The Jets signed and have been hyping up Hendricks

Whoever the Jets pay for analytics either doesn't exist or is no good or their data is falling on deaf ears.

 

[Jimby]

I recall the "zone time" talk last year. At the beginning of this season either Chevy or Maurice was saying that they did a lot of work on analytics in the off season trying to determine which metrics were really correlated to winning and which were not. I suspect they don't believe looking for better corsi is the right answer. Aside from the Penguins with their negative corsi winning the cup, the results so far this year would not encourage a team to chase better corsi. Of the top 10 teams (ROW) only 3 have 5 on 5 corsi above 50%. Of the bottom 10 teams 6 do.

Just wondering if anyone has some info on actual zone time and how it relates or doesn't to improved scoring chances and/or shot location.

I know zone time has generally been disregarded but I had heard something about it when the pens were getting out corsid every game.

I've heard PoMo talk about it too.

Just curious if there is any new research that teams are purposefuly putting less pucks at the net in favor of better chances.