2017 /18 season predictions

ScoresFromCentre

Registered User
Jan 29, 2016
553
185
So I threw all of our predictions into a spreadsheet (typical SFC move, I know). I only included people who posted whole conferences so that we get a full representation of everyone's predictions. Twenty people submitted predictions (I forgot, whoops), but Ferda only picked the West, so we have 20 Western Conference predictions and 19 Eastern Conference predictions. If you submitted multiple predictions, I just took your latest set.

The spreadsheet is here.

The first tab tabulates everyone's picks into an overall HFB forum prediction; we can see how that compares to everyone's individual predictions at the end of the season. The "Score" column is just a ranking of teams based on how many times they were picked in each slot, with 10 points for 1st, 9 points for 2nd, etc., all the way down to 1 point for 10th. It's a bit of a crude metric (it puts Peterborough over Missy in the East even though Missy has more first-place votes because of a few outlier Missy 7th predictions), but I think it works well enough for our purposes.

The second tab contains each poster's individual predictions, so Wolfman knows who to insult first when Sudbury wins the league. ;) Feel free to review your picks to make sure I copied them correctly. I also tried to add everyone's favourite team to their list so we can see how badly we all overrate our own teams (or underrate if you're a Kitchener fan) at the end of the year, and how much our overall sample is skewed by different fanbases. OHL insideout, From Up Top, and Brock, I wasn't sure on your favourite teams. Feel free to volunteer that information and I'll add it to the spreadsheet. (Also, if I got your favourite team wrong, let me know--and I'm deeply, deeply sorry.)

At the end of the season, I'll tally up a score for everyone and we can all talk about what a genius predictor EON is. Good luck to all!

EDIT: Spreadsheet was set to private. Whoops. Everyone should be able to see it now.
 
Last edited:

WolvesAndWings

Wherever I go, the strawman follows
Mar 18, 2017
2,543
3,046
So I threw all of our predictions into a spreadsheet (typical SFC move, I know). I only included people who posted whole conferences so that we get a full representation of everyone's predictions. Twenty people submitted predictions (I forgot, whoops), but Ferda only picked the West, so we have 20 Western Conference predictions and 19 Eastern Conference predictions. If you submitted multiple predictions, I just took your latest set.

The spreadsheet is here.

The first tab tabulates everyone's picks into an overall HFB forum prediction; we can see how that compares to everyone's individual predictions at the end of the season. The "Score" column is just a ranking of teams based on how many times they were picked in each slot, with 10 points for 1st, 9 points for 2nd, etc., all the way down to 1 point for 10th. It's a bit of a crude metric (it puts Peterborough over Missy in the East even though Missy has more first-place votes because of a few outlier Missy 7th predictions), but I think it works well enough for our purposes.

The second tab contains each poster's individual predictions, so Wolfman knows who to insult first when Sudbury wins the league. ;) Feel free to review your picks to make sure I copied them correctly. I also tried to add everyone's favourite team to their list so we can see how badly we all overrate our own teams (or underrate if you're a Kitchener fan) at the end of the year, and how much our overall sample is skewed by different fanbases. OHL insideout, From Up Top, and Brock, I wasn't sure on your favourite teams. Feel free to volunteer that information and I'll add it to the spreadsheet. (Also, if I got your favourite team wrong, let me know--and I'm deeply, deeply sorry.)

At the end of the season, I'll tally up a score for everyone and we can all talk about what a genius predictor EON is. Good luck to all!

EDIT: Spreadsheet was set to private. Whoops. Everyone should be able to see it now.

Damn. Any chance I can instead have my updated predictions that I posted yesterday in the Wolves thread prior to any of the games used instead? Lol July was very different to now.

1. Hamilton
2. Mississauga
3. Oshawa
4. Peterborough
5. Sudbury
6. Ottawa
7. Kingston
8. Barrie
9. North Bay
10. Niagara

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2383295&page=18

Posted at 10:02 am EST yesterday with no edits! :yo::nod::handclap:
 

lazyboy

Registered User
Sponsor
May 24, 2010
325
146
Wallaceburg, Ontario
So I threw all of our predictions into a spreadsheet (typical SFC move, I know). I only included people who posted whole conferences so that we get a full representation of everyone's predictions. Twenty people submitted predictions (I forgot, whoops), but Ferda only picked the West, so we have 20 Western Conference predictions and 19 Eastern Conference predictions. If you submitted multiple predictions, I just took your latest set.

The spreadsheet is here.

The first tab tabulates everyone's picks into an overall HFB forum prediction; we can see how that compares to everyone's individual predictions at the end of the season. The "Score" column is just a ranking of teams based on how many times they were picked in each slot, with 10 points for 1st, 9 points for 2nd, etc., all the way down to 1 point for 10th. It's a bit of a crude metric (it puts Peterborough over Missy in the East even though Missy has more first-place votes because of a few outlier Missy 7th predictions), but I think it works well enough for our purposes.

The second tab contains each poster's individual predictions, so Wolfman knows who to insult first when Sudbury wins the league. ;) Feel free to review your picks to make sure I copied them correctly. I also tried to add everyone's favourite team to their list so we can see how badly we all overrate our own teams (or underrate if you're a Kitchener fan) at the end of the year, and how much our overall sample is skewed by different fanbases. OHL insideout, From Up Top, and Brock, I wasn't sure on your favourite teams. Feel free to volunteer that information and I'll add it to the spreadsheet. (Also, if I got your favourite team wrong, let me know--and I'm deeply, deeply sorry.)

At the end of the season, I'll tally up a score for everyone and we can all talk about what a genius predictor EON is. Good luck to all!

EDIT: Spreadsheet was set to private. Whoops. Everyone should be able to see it now.

Awesome work! The only problem I have with it is that, even though a season ticket holder, my favourite team is not the Sting but rather the Spits. Very rare breed I know.
 

ScoresFromCentre

Registered User
Jan 29, 2016
553
185
Awesome work! The only problem I have with it is that, even though a season ticket holder, my favourite team is not the Sting but rather the Spits. Very rare breed I know.

A rare breed indeed. Fixed it for you!

Damn. Any chance I can instead have my updated predictions that I posted yesterday in the Wolves thread prior to any of the games used instead? Lol July was very different to now.

1. Hamilton
2. Mississauga
3. Oshawa
4. Peterborough
5. Sudbury
6. Ottawa
7. Kingston
8. Barrie
9. North Bay
10. Niagara

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2383295&page=18

Posted at 10:02 am EST yesterday with no edits! :yo::nod::handclap:

Sounds good to me! I'll update your picks later tonight.
 

ScoresFromCentre

Registered User
Jan 29, 2016
553
185
WAW's picks changed things a bit--Mississauga is in first now, and Kingston is ahead of Sudbury (they were tied before). If anyone else made picks elsewhere on HFB (and before 7:05 on Thursday), let me know and I'll add/update your picks.
 

Canadian Game

Registered User
Jul 18, 2005
4,937
1,945
Ontario
Thought I'd bump this up as it's half way through the season and most teams have played 34 games. There certainly have been a few surprises so far. One could argue whether Barrie or Mississauga has been the biggest surprise this season. With the addition of Luckuk, Barrie clearly plans on staying near the top and challenging Hamilton for the east, especially while they have Svechnikov. Meanwhile Mississauga has been a huge disappointment despite having Owen Tippet and Michael McLeod back with the team and having a solid roster on paper. It will be interesting to see if Mississauga stands pat with what they have, or if they sell or shake up the team at the deadline.

I don't watch the west nearly as much as the east (I'm a Hamilton fan) but Sarnia might be the biggest surprise based on the predictions.

Unfortunately I guess I didn't make a prediction. Would have I guessed Hamilton being top of the east? Likely not. Probably #3 with Peterborough and Mississauga holding the top 2 spots.
 

Generalsupdates

@GeneralsUpdates on Twitter
Sep 4, 2017
7,300
4,367
You better hope Sudbury doesn't have a bad year or you're going to look really silly for commenting on everyone's opinion in this thread as if they were asking for your permission to think or something

Funny to look back on this thread. I tried to warn you WJ.....
 

SSMHoundsFan

Greyhounds/FlamesFan
Dec 30, 2014
1,581
502
Sault Ste. Marie, ON
Not to knock OS entirely, seems like a lot of people had them picked to be leading the West as they assumed they'd find a competent goalie to lead them after McNiven left....this never came to fruition and now they sit in 8th in the West
 
  • Like
Reactions: LDN

Finster8

aka-Ant Hill Harry
Jan 18, 2015
1,621
1,182
Grimsby
Appreciate all the time and thought put into this thread SFC. It will be intererestig come playoffs just how well everyone did or didn't?
Merry Christmas
 

ScoresFromCentre

Registered User
Jan 29, 2016
553
185
As promised, I tallied up everyone's predictions and we have a winner! Actually two winners--congrats to SH15 and ottersguy, who tied for the lowest "differential" score (the absolute value of a team's finishing position in its conference minus its predicted finishing position), with 46. That's a little under 2.5 spots off, on average. Nicely done! Honourable mention to Ferda, who only picked the Western Conference but scored a remarkable differential of 12!

All in all, we were much better at picking the West--the best Eastern differential, AttackSound's 26, would have been the worst differential in the Western Conference. Yikes! Part of this is HF's population skewing a bit west, but there was also just a ton of volatility in the east this year, with last year's Eastern finalists finishing bottom four in the conference despite being picked high by almost everyone.

Wondering about the wisdom of the crowd? Well, the HFB aggregate picks nailed the West, with a 14 differential, but were comically off in the East, with a differential of 40. Whoops!

Finally, predictors' favourite teams went 5-10-2 against their predictions. So, yes, we do tend to overrate our own teams... but not too much. Shout-outs to View from section 9 (North Bay) and lazyboy (Windsor) for correctly picking where their teams would finish!

For the full results, check out the Google Doc.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->